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Geoff Ralston has an interesting essay explaining why is likely that electric car penetration in the US will take off at an exponential rate over the next 5-10 years rendering laughable the paltry predictions of future electric car sales being made today. Present projections assume that electric car sales will slowly increase as the technology gets marginally better, and as more and more customers choose to forsake a better product (the gasoline car) for a worse, yet "greener" version. According to Ralston this view of the future is, simply, wrong. - electric cars will take over our roads because consumers will demand them. "Electric cars will be better than any alternative, including the loud, inconvenient, gas-powered jalopy," says Ralston. "The Tesla Model S has demonstrated that a well made, well designed electric car is far superior to anything else on the road. This has changed everything."
The Tesla Model S has sold so well because, compared to old-fashioned gasoline cars it is more fun to drive, quieter, always "full" every morning, more roomy, and it continuously gets better with automatic updates and software improvements. According to Ralston the tipping point will come when gas stations, not a massively profitable business, start to go out of business as many more electric cars are sold, making gasoline powered vehicles even more inconvenient. When that happens even more gasoline car owners will be convinced to switch. Rapidly a tipping point will be reached, at which point finding a convenient gas station will be nearly impossible and owning a gasoline powered car will positively suck. "Elon Musk has ushered in the age of the electric car, and whether or not it, too, was inevitable, it has certainly begun," concludes Ralston. "The future of automotive transportation is an electric one and you can expect that future to be here soon."
(Score: 2) by Appalbarry on Friday July 31 2015, @02:13AM
The North Shore of Vancouver is awash in Teslas. One of our clients, a doctor, bought a Tesla S around the start of the year. It's his daily driver, with chargers at home, and at his work.
I asked him this week what his impressions were after a few months - new tech is always exciting when it's new, but that glow can disappear pretty fast.
He's actually still really happy with the Tesla - the performance, the quiet, the chance to not buy gasoline.
What he's really appreciating now though are the little touches that Tesla has added - door handles that pop out as you approach the car, and other little things linked to the key fob. He ran down a few more things that individually seem minor, but in total make the car a pleasure to own and operate.
They are a two car family, so the minivan (two preschool kids) remains, but all in all he would buy another Tesla without hesitation My guess is that when the Model 3 hits the market you'll see a lot of S models for sale as pre-owned - the timing should hit that sweet spot when people are ready to trade-in and upgrade.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 31 2015, @03:40AM
> What he's really appreciating now though are the little touches that Tesla has added
Did you ask him what he thinks about Tesla data-mining his travels minute-by-minute? The GPS doesn't even work if there is no cellular connectivity.