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Geoff Ralston has an interesting essay explaining why is likely that electric car penetration in the US will take off at an exponential rate over the next 5-10 years rendering laughable the paltry predictions of future electric car sales being made today. Present projections assume that electric car sales will slowly increase as the technology gets marginally better, and as more and more customers choose to forsake a better product (the gasoline car) for a worse, yet "greener" version. According to Ralston this view of the future is, simply, wrong. - electric cars will take over our roads because consumers will demand them. "Electric cars will be better than any alternative, including the loud, inconvenient, gas-powered jalopy," says Ralston. "The Tesla Model S has demonstrated that a well made, well designed electric car is far superior to anything else on the road. This has changed everything."
The Tesla Model S has sold so well because, compared to old-fashioned gasoline cars it is more fun to drive, quieter, always "full" every morning, more roomy, and it continuously gets better with automatic updates and software improvements. According to Ralston the tipping point will come when gas stations, not a massively profitable business, start to go out of business as many more electric cars are sold, making gasoline powered vehicles even more inconvenient. When that happens even more gasoline car owners will be convinced to switch. Rapidly a tipping point will be reached, at which point finding a convenient gas station will be nearly impossible and owning a gasoline powered car will positively suck. "Elon Musk has ushered in the age of the electric car, and whether or not it, too, was inevitable, it has certainly begun," concludes Ralston. "The future of automotive transportation is an electric one and you can expect that future to be here soon."
(Score: 2) by bob_super on Friday July 31 2015, @04:57PM
> So instead of a surge of power demand when people get home from work, the charging is spread out through the night.
Unless you triple the price of electricity from 5 to 9PM, I'm pretty sure most americans will always get their car charged as soon as possible, "just in case".
Come home right after sunset, plug the car, turn on all the lights, computer (just joking, it was still on), TV, A/C, microwave, electric range... when you get past the earth-conscious early adopters and get into the normal market, you can be sure the grid is going to have to deal with the sum of our selfishness.
(Score: 2) by RedBear on Friday July 31 2015, @07:20PM
1. Some areas do have significantly higher prices for peak electricity vs. off-peak. That is definitely one thing that will motivate the typical American penny-pincher to schedule charging during off-peak hours.
2. A promising phenomenon seems to happen with a lot of people who drive EVs, and not just "EV advocates" but really anyone who drives an EV for a while. Because there is such a visible and direct correlation between driving style, energy used per mile/kilometer, and usable range, it becomes a psychologically rewarding game to most drivers to drive as efficiently as possible. This seems to happen not just with 55-mile range i-MiEVs and 80-mile range LEAFs but also with high-range vehicles like the Model S where under most circumstances you don't really need to pay any attention to the range. This completely unprovoked "gamification" effect also translates into increased awareness of how much energy is needed to recharge and thus by extension when it would be absolutely cheapest to do so. It also triggers a lot of EV drivers to look at installing solar so they can enhance their ability to "stick it to the man" and effectively pay the electric company even less to charge their EV. In other words, driving an EV tends to turn people into Earth-conscious hippies even if they weren't one to begin with. It's a very interesting phenomenon.
I'm sure that won't happen to everyone, but it will be part of the perception change that will cause society to continue evolving toward being increasingly aware of our overall energy usage patterns. I'm also sure that the typical American will continue to find many other things to be selfish about.
¯\_ʕ◔.◔ʔ_/¯ LOL. I dunno. I'm just a bear.
... Peace out. Got bear stuff to do. 彡ʕ⌐■.■ʔ