[translation mine] Arab Spring 2011: Young people take to the streets, they fight for a better life. Only when the movement grows do older people gain the courage to join them.
Why did the young people see the possibility for change, but not their elders? Network researchers believe to have found a reason: the young people were able to imagine that the majority of the people stood behind them. They were under the so-called "Illusion of Majority."
People orient themselves to the majority. However, what they take to be the majority is distorted through social networks, says Kristina Lerman of the University of Southern California: "Under certain requirements a minority opinion can appear to be extremely popular."
That depends on the structure of networks. The users don't know all participants, only a part - those people with whom they're connected. Whatever the majority of their friends do, they conclude the majority of participants do. They are then readier to join the perceived majority.
People who are particularly connected to others play an especially important role in the phenomenon of opinion formation. The full paper from Kristina Lerman is here.
Social networks mediated by technology can be disrupted by tech-savvy governments. As more social connections become purely online, will revolution in the future become impossible?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 30 2015, @12:36PM
We can all look back and marvel at how stupid we were when we were young... why is this any different? Why would a sensible Arab look across the sea to Greece in shambles and want to emulate it? Uncoincidentally the Arab Spring that you've championed has produced ISIS. And why are we not surprised when the 'European spring' produced things with names like "The Rein of Terror". btw, Germany under 'the First Reich' (aka catholic monarchy) committed no genocide, Germany under democracy elected Hitler.