In general, I'm not a "The end of the world is nigh" kind of person. However, I have been following the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa with some concern for the last six months, and it's out of control.
With a 90% fatality rate, Ebola scares me in ways that SARS, Swine/Bird Flu, and other recent outbreaks never did. Living next to a international airport, with 2 small children, I'm starting to get a little worried. If it starts to spread beyond West Africa, it could easily turn into a pandemic.
I'm not interested in going to extremes, but I'd like to take some precautions. I'm looking for things I can do that are Cheap, Simple, and Effective. Things like stocking up on food, and buying surgical gloves and masks seem simple enough. How would you prepare?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 25 2014, @07:52AM
n/t
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 25 2014, @07:58AM
A pandemic is TOTALLY AWESOME news, it'll help reduce overpopulation, like, RADICAL man.
(Score: 3, Informative) by aristarchus on Wednesday June 25 2014, @08:05AM
Good enough for the Bush administration. Kill yourself before the Ebola get's ya! Or, you could calm down, try to be helpful to those around you by remaining calm, and wait and see what happens. Pandemics rarely kill more than, say 28.83% of the actually living population at any one time, unless of course it is a T-cell virus and Milla Jonovich is involved.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 25 2014, @08:30AM
Ebola can only kill ya once! Fool me once, shame on, shame on you. Fool me, you can't get fooled again.
(Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 25 2014, @08:39AM
So we should invade Africa first, before it invades the US.
And the other times when they are 90% fatal, what happens then?
(Score: 3, Insightful) by frojack on Wednesday June 25 2014, @08:49AM
There's no survival strategy in killing all of your hosts.
Pandemics therefore tend to get less deadly as time goes on. The infectious agents grow weaker so that they spread further. Those infectious agents that are 100 percent deadly don't spread far before they run out of hosts.
Even Ebola has shown signs of being less deadly in later years.
Which is why this outbreak is out of control. Infected hosts live long enough to get away.
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 4, Informative) by choose another one on Wednesday June 25 2014, @09:46AM
I am not sure we even know what the primary host _is_ for Ebola. Last I looked, it wasn't thought to be primates but _might_ be bats - but they might be an intermediate. We aren't actually it's main target or host - it is just, accidentally, particularly good at killing us.
Scariest scenario might actually be:
- (unknown) primary host can catch it from us
- primary host is widespread, but currently only infected in west africa
- we manage to spread it to other primary or secondary host populations elsewhere (dogs or pigs may suffice)
We then end up with it endemic in other parts of the world as well.
Also, remember that this time the epidemic has hit urban areas where people have more frequent and more widespread person to person contact - so it will spread faster and further even if life expectancy of infected hosts remains the same. Lower mortality might be due to better (or, crucially, earlier) treatment, also due to more urban location.
(Score: 1) by bzipitidoo on Wednesday June 25 2014, @04:16PM
Bats harbor Marburg virus.
I agree that we can't count on the self limiting factor of predator populations crashing when prey is exhausted, not when multiple distinct populations are involved. As I recall, some bird of prey in the Caribbean was entirely eliminated by athlete's foot fungus. There were too many of us around for a few birds to dodge the disease by having the good fortune to nest where it wasn't. There was no sanctuary. The American Chestnut tree was pretty much wiped out by another fungus.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 25 2014, @10:35AM
Except HIV / AIDS. A genuine pandemic by any definition
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 25 2014, @12:45PM
There is no strategy to evolution. Randomness powers evolution, and random events that help something reproduce tend to make that evolved item stick around longer rather than die out. If you claim Ebola virii are highly intelligent and are deliberately waging in coordinated attacks on hosts then okay (although I disagree), but I think the effects of virii on hosts is largely random. If those attacks tend to help a virus propagate then that virus tends to live for a while and spread effectively; if those attacks tend to not help a virus propagate then that virus tends not to live for a while and spreads less effectively; no conscious decision in attack strategies is involved.
(Score: 2) by frojack on Thursday June 26 2014, @12:31AM
Nothing in anything I posted required intelligence. You've jumped to your own conclusions.
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 2) by aristarchus on Wednesday June 25 2014, @08:53AM
OK. we need some basic math, and epidemiology. 90% fatal, to those who contract the disease! Usually there is a large amount of natural immunity, or dumb luck, take your pick. So, if 34.897% of the population contract the disease, and 90% of those die, we are . m..m .n. m somewhere close to my original made-up percentage. (Note: when making up statistics, always go to the the hundredth decimal place.) My only real advice to the OP is to stay away from people bleeding from their eyes. And let professionals prepare bodies for burial. Cremation preferred.
(Score: 2) by isostatic on Wednesday June 25 2014, @09:12AM
34.897% isn't very accurate, only down to "plus-or-minus a large town".
(Score: 2) by aristarchus on Wednesday June 25 2014, @09:21AM
Now this is why we need some parameters in order to properly use stats! 34.897% of what? Could be a large town, if the original was sufficiently large. Or it could be only a spherical cow. Either way, I don't see how it is inaccurate. It is just imprecise! (And the technical name for the fallacy of making up very precise statistics is called "the fallacy of misplaced precision." See what we did there? Now stay calm, and go wash your eyes, they are bleeding.)
(Score: 2) by tangomargarine on Wednesday June 25 2014, @02:38PM
Made-up numbers are made up.
And call it significant digits. Do we really need to label everything a fallacy? :-P Jumping to fallacy for everything is shorthand for subconsciously calling the other person cognitively weak.
"Is that really true?" "I just spent the last hour telling you to think for yourself! Didn't you hear anything I said?"
(Score: 2) by aristarchus on Wednesday June 25 2014, @08:09PM
Point taken. The fallacy is that more determinate made up numbers are more plausible than round made up numbers, that's why it is a fallacy. And at least I was being honest about trying to fool everyone by using the misplaced precision fallacy.
As for the subconscious, it really is not fair to insinuate that someone is cognitively weak, because if they are, they will have no idea what that means. From an episode of "The Tick": Somebody: "No offense intended." Tick: "None comprehended."
(Score: 2) by tangomargarine on Wednesday June 25 2014, @10:45PM
Throwing several extra decimal points on an estimate does significantly muddy the waters as to whether they're being facetious or not, especially online.
"Is that really true?" "I just spent the last hour telling you to think for yourself! Didn't you hear anything I said?"
(Score: 1) by Kunasou on Wednesday June 25 2014, @08:39AM
You can try to avoid airports, crowded places but someone near you can have it.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 25 2014, @08:54AM
So basically you're fine until your mom comes downstairs.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 25 2014, @11:57AM
You mom already came downstairs.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Popeidol on Wednesday June 25 2014, @08:44AM
Move to Madagascar. You can rely on them to lock down everything as soon as somebody sneezes.
More seriously, if it clearly becomes a problem I'd consider taking time off work to visit family who live in areas of low population density and off main thoroughfares (being in a small town doesn't help if thousands of people are driving straight past your front door). In terms of supplies you can lay in a little without much cost. When you start to get worried, grab a few things: Some blankets, some containers of fresh water, fire lighting tools, some bulk purchases of rice or pasta (or some other long-lasting foods). Keep the car topped up with fuel, and avoid public areas if it's risky.
I'd probably take a tent and a few books, too. If you're leaving the city after the disease hits it, the people you're relying on for help might want you quarantined for a few days.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by choose another one on Wednesday June 25 2014, @10:38AM
All good. of course if there is anyone with a clue still in charge, you won't be leaving the city, at all, after the disease hits it.
Make sure its a good few books - quarantine should be over 3 weeks.
There is another, perhaps more risky, but maybe not overall, option:
Get it and get it early. Get infected whilst the infrastructure and hospitals are still working - maybe 50% survival chance in a 1st world hospital. If/when pandemic hits, your overall likelihood of getting infected and not surviving, when hospitals are overwhelmed or non-functional, may be higher than chance of dying if you get it early. Maybe. Good luck...
(Score: 2) by kaszz on Wednesday June 25 2014, @03:53PM
> Get it and get it early. Get infected whilst the infrastructure and hospitals are still working - maybe 50% survival chance in a 1st world hospital. If/when pandemic hits, your overall likelihood of getting infected and not surviving, when hospitals are overwhelmed or non-functional, may be higher than chance of dying if you get it early. Maybe. Good luck...
Actually sounds like an interesting strategy. One could pump the body full of antivirals just to take the edge off as well.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Dunbal on Wednesday June 25 2014, @09:08AM
Wash your hands often and don't hang around overcrowded places. That's about all you can do.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by clone141166 on Wednesday June 25 2014, @11:15AM
Washing your hands frequently is probably the most important thing. Human hands are THE most common means of transmission for all diseases.
It is also important to learn how to wash your hands properly. Here is a video demonstrating the 6 steps to effective hand washing (as taught to healthcare professionals) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCVu_1d9AJ8/ [youtube.com]. The whole process should take roughly 30 seconds.
You would be surprised at how much the spread of infections can be reduced by washing your hands frequently and properly with soap and running water. Get used to thinking about what you are touching; if you pay attention to what you touch, you can figure out when you need to wash your hands. Don't touch a door handle in a public area and then touch your face without washing your hands first, etc. (door handles and taps are generally the worst places). This can be a bit tedious, but if you get into the hang of it, it will just become second nature.
If you are undergoing any kind of medical procedure, ask the doctor/nurse/practitioner if they have washed their hands, and any equipment being used, prior to consenting to the procedure.
Although less of an issue, I would probably avoid eating out as much as possible as well. Having direct control over your food preparation process can reduce the chance of catching diseases from improperly prepared foods.
Ebola is transmitted by contact with bodily fluids of infected humans AND animals. So stay away from stray animals, and keep your pets away from other animals as well.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by clone141166 on Wednesday June 25 2014, @11:26AM
Forgot to mention money is another one that is very bad to touch (as everyone handles it). Stick to paying with credit cards/other electronic payment means rather than handling cash if you can. If you do have to handle money, wash your hands before touching your face/eating/etc. :)
(Score: 1) by bootsy on Wednesday June 25 2014, @03:06PM
Don't forget Petrol/Gasoline pumps. Apparently large amount of infections are present and I don't just mean the benign stuff that lives in your computer keyboard that only you touch. All manner of people use fuel pumps and hardly anyone washes their hands before or after.
I would also recommend people sleep slightly more and eat healthily. All this will help your immune system.
Being worried about Ebola will stress you out and weaken your immune system.
(Score: 2) by kaszz on Wednesday June 25 2014, @03:55PM
Pay using gloves..
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 25 2014, @10:23AM
http://all-that-is-interesting.com/post/4956385434/the-first-zombie-proof-house [all-that-is-interesting.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 25 2014, @01:45PM
That's probably the most expensive possible way to build a zombie-proof house. Much cheaper to build on the side of a hill with all the windows facing outwards from the hill and just a fortified door at "ground level" on the back-side of the house.
(Score: 2) by tangomargarine on Wednesday June 25 2014, @02:49PM
No kidding. What is it with designer houses that have no walls but just full-length windows all the way around? It's like some weird kind of exhibitionism.
And besides, everybody knows the zombies break through the windows. I expect this guy will end up taking a nap with the security walls retracted and the zombies will break in anyway. The guy's last non-infected thought will be, "In retrospect, it was a really, really dumb idea to have solid windows everywhere."
One last quibble, for a house that supposedly only has one entrance, "on the second floor across a drawbridge," it looks like that 7th pic down shows sliding glass doors that open right out onto the ground-level "porch."
"Is that really true?" "I just spent the last hour telling you to think for yourself! Didn't you hear anything I said?"
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 25 2014, @04:02PM
> What is it with designer houses that have no walls but just full-length windows all the way around?
The "wall of glass" design element is a tenet of mid-century modern design. The idea is to minimize the boundary between outside and inside. It is hell on energy consumption - particularly for western-facing glass walls because of all the heat from the sun in the afternoon (southern-facing glass walls can really help during winter and aren't so bad during summer). But it is a really, really nice way to live if you don't have neighbors that can see in (which obviously this guy does not).
(Score: 1) by anubi on Wednesday June 25 2014, @10:45AM
I do not have much of an answer... as social as we are.
Pull the kids out of school because one young'in get it and spreads it to the rest?
Quit eating because the food ( especially fresh things that may have been handled - meats and vegetables for instance, or any restaurant meals! ) may have been handled by an infected? And you sit at tables someone else just sat at.
Quit handling any form of cash? You have no idea who handled it before you got it.
Shut down international trade? If this gets into China, WE are screwed!
Quit going to church? What a disease vector those little bowls of holy water could turn out to be!
Shut down all movie theaters, stadiums, and any other mass gathering areas? (Imagine just one minimum-wage, no healthcare, ebola-laced person in the food concession, still working although he feels like shit? ).
Ignore all those folk who keep putting their hand out for a shake? ( That little habit already annoys me ).
I guess my take is that if its gonna happen, its gonna happen. To everybody. Some of us will be naturally resistant to it. Some of us won't. I get the idea if the public at large comes down with it, a healthy bank account will do little to protect you, as anyone you hire to do your work is apt to bring it to you.
Yes, be aware of it, just as being aware of the traffic on the road, but if its got your name on it, I think you are screwed. As am I.
But as far as taking active steps, I get the idea most of it would be futile. Might make a few days difference, but if all around you have it, its up to natural selection at that point. Especially if the disease goes airborne. Some of the extremely elite may escape to islands, but cut off from the mainland, they too will eventually run out of resources.
"Prove all things; hold fast that which is good." [KJV: I Thessalonians 5:21]
(Score: 2) by VLM on Wednesday June 25 2014, @12:09PM
"especially fresh things that may have been handled - meats and vegetables for instance, or any restaurant meals!"
I don't eat raw meat. Consider under normal circumstances if it could give you food poisoning, then avoid.
So taco bell, uh, no. Salad, no. Sushi, no.
Sizzling fajitas handed to me while still sizzling? At 600 degree surface temps the waitress could lick it before giving it to me (probably burning her tongue) and it would still be safe. Now the guacamole thats been sitting out on the counter all day, that might be getting "iffy" but the meat will be fine. I'm thinking fish fry is a good idea, right out of 350 degree boiling oil...
"any other mass gathering areas?"
How about riots? I live in a safe area but work in a diverse area, where decades ago they had some impressive riots. Once the end of the world is declared, that jewelry store down the street is toast, in fact all the retail and bars will be stripped clean, but not by individuals carefully keeping separated.
(Score: 5, Informative) by Aiwendil on Wednesday June 25 2014, @10:56AM
(First off: I can't stress the importance of knowing how to wash your hands - most people don't know how to do this, your country's CDC should have guides on how to do it, otherwise just google it)
* Wash your hands whenever you've been outside (or even opened the door for someone), touched an animal that isn't the indoor pet, been to the toilet, blown a nose, or touched tears and/or blood.
* Insist that guests wash their hands when they get to your place (and this goes both ways - ask if you can wash your hands as soon as you visit someone)
* Wash your hands before you touch any food
* Latex/Nitrile-gloves for when handling meat [pre-cooking] (and - if you are paranoid - produce [pre-washing]) if you have any wounds, otherwise just wash the hands properly before and after.
* Wash dishes straight away
* Carry disposable papertissue at all times and use this as a "shield" between your hand and anything you touch with your hands when out eating (the little napkin they have under your hotdog that you get at a stand is a great feature)
** Also do consider wet wipes (use them to wipe your hands before you eat at that hamburger joint)
* If you are sick then stay indoor - do _not_ soldier on to work (if you can afford the sickday) as this will only carry the infection to others
* Facemasks are great if you have a cold or other airborne disease (limit the number you will infect)
* Do _NOT_ rub your eyes unless you hands has been recently washed
* Never touch blood or tears - other than your own - unless you are wearing gloves (and remember to wash your hands afterwards)
* Learn the proper ways to cough in a crowd
* Stay up to date on vaccines
* Eat healthy (not health-nutter, just eat good food and in moderation)
* Exercise (in moderation)
* Use a skin moisturizer (broken skin is not good) - I'm partial to using soap with moisturisers in it.
* Use a sauna at least once a week.
* Wash clothes and bedlinnen at 60C (140F)
* Get a vacuum-cleaner with a good filter and vacuum at least once a week.
* Use "insect nets" for whenever you open a window (mosquitos and flies can be carriers)
* Make sure the air in your dwelling is completly changed at least twice a day.
* Stop smoking (inhaling smoke - no matter the source - is not good for your lungs)
** Also avoid [both use and exposure] of heavy perfume (if you can notice it without trying or putting your nose in it then it is heavy)
But as stated all of this is just basic hygiene but it carries a very long way - and going much beyond this will require training and also will cause sideffects.
Oh, and a pet-peeve of mine - people that has shoes on in people's homes (this is a custom that varies between countries/regions/cultures, here in sweden the common custom is to not wear shoes indoor when visiting someones dwelling) as it only tracks in lots of dirt for no good use.
(Score: 3, Funny) by tangomargarine on Wednesday June 25 2014, @02:33PM
You're posting a 21-point list and calling it *basic*?!
"Is that really true?" "I just spent the last hour telling you to think for yourself! Didn't you hear anything I said?"
(Score: 2) by meisterister on Wednesday June 25 2014, @10:55PM
He only made it up to line 210.
(May or may not have been) Posted from my K6-2, Athlon XP, or Pentium I/II/III.
(Score: 0, Redundant) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 25 2014, @03:44PM
Posting as AC because I haven't bothered to create an account yet, and I don't want to officially tie this to my work. My work is in disaster planning/response for my local community. We produce a master plan for the community and every couple of months review the hazards that are on the horizon for which we might have to do some tuning. So far, the likelihood of a global pandemic of Ebola is so remote we don't even discuss it. It's lumped in with all "other contagious diseases" that are theoretically possible, but individually very unlikely. So I'd suggest you have no reason to be scared of Ebola unless you live in one of the African countries affected.
Instead let me expand your question. How do you prepare for the risk of a large local outbreak (epidemic) or wide-spread/global outbreak (pandemic) of a contagious disease? To be a concern the disease would have to spread easily (virulent) and either cause a high rate of death (mortality) or injury (morbidity). The most likely disease to meet these criteria for us is a strain of influenza.
The parent comment's list of basic hygiene sounds good, and would apply to any disaster, regardless of whether it was a pandemic. Disease is often a secondary effect of a disaster. I've never heard of the weekly sauna recommendation. Maybe it's a Swedish thing.
In my country, the onus for preparing for preparing and responding to a disaster follows a hierarchy. The first responsibility is on the individual/family. You're doing the right thing by asking questions now. Here, the standard is that you should be able to meet your own basic needs for 72 hours. The local government (my level) will be responding to the most affected areas, but depending on the situation, can't be expected to reach everyone until the 3-day mark. If we're overwhelmed, we draw in resources from the regional government (1 week standard) and they from the national government (few weeks).
I'd recommend you take a look at the plans of your local government and see how you fit in. Also check for advice from your regional and national governments. Here, all such information is available on line. For an example of a guide on preparing, see: http://www.getprepared.gc.ca/cnt/rsrcs/pblctns/yprprdnssgd/index-eng.aspx [getprepared.gc.ca]
Best practice in disaster planning is to take an "all hazards" approach. That means not to make complete plans for every individual hazard, but rather to look at aspects that common to many hazards, and have a plan for that. If you have to stay in your home for an extended period ("shelter in place"), do you have enough supplies? Food? What if the water goes out or is contaminated? What if the power goes out? What if you have to evacuate? How long would it take you to gather your supplies? You usually have less than an hour. What if your family gets separated? Do you have someone out of the community who can be your common contact? Your government should have information sheets that guide you making your plan.
Our local pandemic plan deals only with elements that are specific to pandemics. We based ours on a regional recommendations. You should anticipate that the health care system will be overwhelmed. Facilities will be established that deal only with the disease, to avoid infecting people that are ill for other reasons. It may be that people with less serious forms of the disease will be asked to stay home. Travel restrictions may be imposed, but likely will only slow the spread. The pandemic disease will likely have 2 or more waves separated by a few weeks. Businesses will be affected and may be asked to share staff and rotate openings to maintain services to the community.
In summary: don't panic. It's unlikely that anything is going to happen soon. Do prepare. Your preparations will make a huge difference when the next disaster hits your area.
(Score: 2) by Aiwendil on Wednesday June 25 2014, @05:10PM
The sauna is indeed a swedish and finnish thing indeed - however it does have merit. Historically it is what we used in this region before we started with showers and regular baths (when your nearest body of water is covered in eight inches thick ice you start to look for alternative options).
However its main benefits is that in part in induces a quite excessive sweat all over the body (follow this up with a nice scrub of snow (winter) or a quick swim (rest of the year), or possibly a sraping with a twig) which will remove dirt, also the elevated body temperature is in effect a high-ish fever (consider in particular bacteria that requires a temperature slightly below bodytemp [normally living in nasal cavities] and how they will react when it suddenly becomes higher than even bodytemp) that can be aborted in a matter of minutes (just leave the sauna) and can be handled safely by just drinking water at a moderate pace.
Furthermore many classical saunas (and it is still common) allows one to regulate the humidity in the air to wherever it is easiest to breathe.
It also will kill off some parasites and fungi.
It is sad it is has fallen out of fashion since a sauna also is highly relaxing and a great place to enjoy the company of someone (probably the only place where it is just as acceptable for a dozen naked guys to just sit in a comfortable silence as it would be for people of both gender to just have a nice social or work chat).
Just the more medical side of it (and yes, there always is some moron that will try to be macho and end up in the E.R before they learn to respect that one basically are playing with a heatstroke if one pushes oneself to hard - so it is something that should be used with care)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 25 2014, @04:42PM
I see we have a visitor from The Sauna Council...
(Score: 2) by Aiwendil on Wednesday June 25 2014, @05:14PM
Indeed - but don't knock it until you tried it, especially a "wet sauna" (basically a thing in between a dry sauna and a steam bath) does wonders for the nasal cavities when one is having a cold/sniffles.
Personally I prefer them for relaxation however - and I am all in favour of them making a comeback :)
(Score: 3, Insightful) by geb on Wednesday June 25 2014, @11:02AM
Be able to handle minor ailments in your own home. Have a first aid kit so that if one of your family gets a small injury, you don't have to send them into the plague pit that is the local healthcare system. In a pandemic, a hospital becomes a warehouse for storing the infectious.
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 25 2014, @11:15AM
By turning off the TV.
The next pandemic is unlikely to be any worse than the last two pandemics, pig flu and bird flu. If it was expected to be anything serious, they upgrade it to a real epidemic.
Pandemic, n: A disease causing a few deaths that gets blown completely out of proportions by politicians and the media.
(Score: 2) by sjames on Wednesday June 25 2014, @10:07PM
I thought it was somewhat cynically amusing that during the last OMG PANDEMIC WERE ALL GONNA DIE news cycle, we never once heard do your Christmas shopping over the net, avoid crowded malls.
We also never heard that employers should offer sick pay and encourage sick employees (especially cooks and waitstaff) to stay home.
If they start giving those bits of advice, I'll believe the threat is genuine.
(Score: 2) by Magic Oddball on Wednesday June 25 2014, @11:37AM
First, something important to keep in mind: the word "epidemic" doesn't imply catastrophe the way most people think of it. All it means is that there have been more cases of a disease in a given time period (I think a year?) than was predicted by medical officials. If you ask people in states hit by the whooping cough epidemic, for example, very few will say that they've seen anything unusual going on.
I read through the WHO's info on ebola, and the chances of it spreading outside West Africa are so remote that the WHO recommends against any changes in travel/trade policy. People there primarily get through either handling deceased loved ones during burial rituals, handling infected fruit bats for sale, eating the infected fruit bats, having unprotected sex, re-using needles, and if the person is a health care worker, by not taking proper precautions in treating infected people.
Even in the event of a pandemic, I don't think there's any real chance of it damaging society. If it was at all likely, I think it would have happened during the 1940s & early 1950s, when the polio epidemic (pandemic?) was paralyzing/killing 500,000 people worldwide per year, or possibly during the early 90s when multi-drug-resistant TB was really out of control.
(Score: 2) by VLM on Wednesday June 25 2014, @12:37PM
"Even in the event of a pandemic, I don't think there's any real chance of it damaging society. If it was at all likely, I think it would have happened during the 1940s & early 1950s"
Yeah, or the 1910s... whoops, bad example. That flu epidemic killed about a 1/10th of a billion. I bet the next one could get 10 times as many due to overcrowding and bad nutrition and related issues.
(Score: 3, Informative) by VLM on Wednesday June 25 2014, @11:58AM
Humans are notoriously bad at figuring out the difference between macro and micro, they're often opposed. Just look at economics, or ... pandemics.
So all this "everybody should wash their hands" commentary is a total macro comment that might prevent an epidemic from taking off but is utterly beyond useless as a micro level comment. Its already started and spreading like wildfire, all washing your hands will do is help you die with clean hands, or perhaps prevent a minor cut from becoming infected (no medical care in a societal breakdown scenario...)
At a micro level you can live without food for a hell of a long time (some a lot longer than others, LOL) and the developed world has quite a bit of crappy unhealthy grains, which will none the less prevent starvation. So prepare to eat a lot of rice. Maybe buy some rice? You can live off raw calories for awhile (Mt Dew? Raw sugar?) but eventually you need vitamins and minerals so stock up on multivitamins. You can't live very long without clean uncontaminated water, like maybe a day. No electricity +/- no diesel deliveries to generators means no sewage treatment at all. So no power to the well pumps and the river will be full of raw untreated sewage. That might be a slight problem. I have a nice filter for camping, I'll be fine, other people, not so good. Without AC and bad cooking facilities (you, uh, do have a liquid fuel camp stove?) you'll need more water than you expect.
One effect of disasters, much like deep woods hiking or .mil deployments is a small issue can become a big problem very quickly. So normally you get a cut on your leg and it gets infected so you escalate thru antibiotic cream purchased from the pharmacy (which is now quarrentined and closed), to visiting a Dr (which is now quarrantined and closed and the Dr is dead anyway), to getting treated at a hospital (which is now... you get the idea), at some point under normal conditions they generally succeed. Without that operating infrastructure, if you don't have at least some supplies and self help, you simply die from a minor infected cut on your leg, just like your ancestors did 100 years ago. Whoops. So in all but 90% fatality scenarios, whats most likely to kill you isn't the disease or war or earthquake or hurricane or forest fire or alien invasion or whatever, its going to be issues only tangentially related.
Without energy, inside a house is just a slightly dryer (temporarily) version of the outside. So if you can't live outside for long, then without energy you'll die. You could buy 1000000 gallon tank of propane but its probably simpler and cheaper to buy some appropriate camping gear?
Locally its historically likely we'll be trapped by a blizzard for a couple days, or a tornado could pass nearby and totally screw up the transport network, so I keep prepared for at least a week or two at all times. Its cheap and easy and simple.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by Phoenix666 on Wednesday June 25 2014, @03:03PM
The real danger from pandemics, mega-storms, etc., are not the events themselves but from people losing their minds and panicking. Think about the guy who goes berserk when someone cuts him off in traffic. That's one guy with an outsized reaction to a minor disruption in his routine and minor impingement on his perception of what ought to be. Multiply that by a hundred thousand and that's what can occur when fear spreads. People loot, burn, steal, fight, murder, and destroy. Eventually a threshhold is reached where those who are trying to suppress the breakdown in civil order decide, hey, they have to look after their own families first. Then chaos leaps.
Unless you're talking about an ABC attack where time/distance shielding are critical to survival, sheltering in place is the best way to protect yourself from other people losing their minds. Potable water is your main limiting factor. If you have that you can hold out a long time. You'll be hungry, and you might be cold if it's winter, but you'll last a long time, say 30 days. If it's a localized event or something FEMA or such like are working to address, that'll be enough time for them to organize relief or evacuation. If it's a general end-of-the-world situation, 30 days is enough time for all the hotheads and crazies to kill each other off or be put down by calmer, more organized forces.
At that point if you know how to hunt, fish, and garden life will go merrily on. If you also know something about mechanics, engineering, and tech you could even take a reasonable stab at rebuilding civilization. It won't be fun and it won't be comfortable and it will be more work and pain than most people in the First World have ever known, but humanity will go on.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 4, Interesting) by Squidious on Wednesday June 25 2014, @03:19PM
1. A large bag of disposable lighters and a sharp axe. Building fires to cook food and boil water will be a must. Note that the wood may have to come from the walls of your neighbor's house if you live in an urban area, in which case a crowbar would help as well.
2. Stock up your booze cabinet. Alcohol will be a must for cleaning even the smallest wounds. You can always drink it later if the disaster never happens, unlike the stuff for your medicine cabinet.
3. If you live near a body of water, buy some cheap fishing tackle and practice using it. Learn how to clean and cook fish.
4. Buy a can opener you turn with your hand (not electric).
5. There is a mix of dry beans you can blend up that covers all the animo acids your body needs. Google it up, buy them and mix it up, and store it in bags within seal-able plastic buckets. You can always eat it later if the disaster never happens.
6. A flash light with a hand crank to charge the battery.
7. A hammer and a large number of nails for securing a house for shelter.
I would suggest acquiring a firearm and some ammo and some practice time using them, but you said "inexpensive" so I ruled that out. From what I have read of the Bosnian/Serb conflict (about a town that was surrounded and cut off for many months) you will be able to trade lighters and/or booze for firearms after a time, the former are that important.
The terrorists have won, game, set, match. They've scared the people into electing authoritarian regimes.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 25 2014, @04:42PM
Or, you could just stop hyperventilating, remember to wash your hands frequently, and avoid exposure to large crowds of people for about a week or so. Lots cheaper than your "solution". Of course, my suggestions probably won't impress your Guns-N-Ammo readin' friends, but I guess there is a downside to everything.
(Score: 1) by Squidious on Wednesday June 25 2014, @05:41PM
I answered the question he asked without questioning the validity of his scenario. I have lived through multiple Florida hurricanes where we had no power or running water for weeks following. How will you wash your hands without running water? How will you avoid contact with others if you do not stock food and water and have to go looking for handouts? This new Ebola strain supposedly spreads through the air via exhaled moisture, so washing your hands doesn't prevent transmission.
The terrorists have won, game, set, match. They've scared the people into electing authoritarian regimes.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 25 2014, @06:35PM
1. A Florida hurricane is not a pandemic. I don't know of any pandemics that have followed in the wake of a hurricane.
2. If a pandemic were to cause an interruption in running potable water then you have much bigger problems than just a pandemic on your hands.
3. I will grant that it is a good idea to have at least a couple of weeks of food stocked up, especially if you know that a pandemic is about to break out.
4. Limiting contact with large crowds of people should cut down on exposure to "exhaled moisture". Another reason why it would be a good idea to stock up on at least a couple of weeks of food.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 25 2014, @06:02PM
> 2. Stock up your booze cabinet. Alcohol will be a must for cleaning even the smallest wounds.
> You can always drink it later if the disaster never happens, unlike the stuff for your medicine cabinet.
Except that isopropyl alcohol is cheaper than any liquor of comparable proof and a lot cheaper than any liquor that a non-alcoholic would enjoy drinking.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday June 25 2014, @06:35PM
Any bartender could tell you they serve far more "well" drinks than anything else on the shelves.
(Score: 2) by Lagg on Wednesday June 25 2014, @05:53PM
A 12 gauge shotgun, two freezers of frozen pizzas and eight freezers of cheap beer. 'Murika.
To be serious though there's not really anything to do that you shouldn't already be doing. Wash your hands good, don't touch every random thing in a store and then lick your fingers, don't stick yourself into a crowd packed in somewhere that resembles a sardine can and so forth. Only other thing I can think of is buying a box of surgical masks. Couldn't hurt.
http://lagg.me [lagg.me] 🗿
(Score: 2) by tibman on Wednesday June 25 2014, @08:45PM
You can pull the family inside and lock the door for a few weeks. You can hop in the car and drive to distant family. Or you can risk it and still go to school, work, and grocery store.
Either way, you should certainly have some preparations. I am a huge fan of the bugout bag. Think of it like this: if you had to go camping right this minute, you could grab a bag, walk out the door, and be okay for a week. Doesn't have to keep you comfy, just safe and healthy. It should not weight more than 1/3 your body weight (that's max weight for a fit person). You could keep it in a closet by the front door or the trunk of your car.
SN won't survive on lurkers alone. Write comments.
(Score: 2) by Joe on Wednesday June 25 2014, @11:21PM
Hey jdccdevel,
This thread is stale and will fall-off the front page soon, so this message is mainly for you (I hope you read it).
First: Don't worry. Worrying never seems to help and often it can make things worse.
Second: Read-up on the threat from trustworthy sources and ask those who are more knowledgeable in the field (be careful of those who speak beyond their knowledge). I don't want to break my arm while patting myself on the back, but I am someone who is knowledgeable about viruses and immunology (check my post history).
Third: Be practical in your preparations, relative to the actual level of threat.
For the second point:
The case-fatality rate of the Zaire Ebola Virus (EBOV-Z) for this outbreak is 64% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_disease#Epidemiology), not 90%. EBOV-Z is spread by people through bodily fluids acquired through close contact. Primary transmission from the non-human reservoir is very rare (I'm pretty sure all known cases were the result of a single introduction).
TL/DR: During a local outbreak, avoid coming in contact with people (especially family and friends) that are showing clinical signs of disease or who have come in close-contact with those who are sick (this includes health-professionals - if you aren't sick).
For the third point:
The level of risk for you and your family seems to be incredibly low (the only thing worth mentioning was that you are near an airport). Considering this risk (it doesn't hurt to keep an eye on the progress of the outbreak), you would be better off preparing for more immediate threats (or common long-term threats - healthy habits will probably protect your family and extend their survival far more than a bunker full of food and water).
Off Topic Virology: One very interesting way EBOV-Z evades the immune system is by producing excessive amounts of "decoy targets" for antibodies (this will deplete the availability of antibody), which will protect the "real targets" that are on the virus from being inactivated.
- Joe
(Score: 2) by jdccdevel on Thursday June 26 2014, @12:25AM
Thanks for the better details about this particular outbreak. I hadn't seen anything in the media about what particular strain of Ebola this is, or it's exact fatality rate, so I was assuming worst-case numbers.
It's still not a nice situation though.
I know the level of threat here still really low, but then again, that's when the best time to prepare is ;-)
There have been some good suggestions, some of which are things that overlap well with camping (Which I enjoy, so I can easily justify spending some more money on gear.)
Again, thanks for the great info!
(Score: 2) by Reziac on Wednesday June 25 2014, @11:37PM
...stay the hell out of Africa!!
And there is no Alkibiades to come back and save us from ourselves.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday June 26 2014, @02:40AM
During the 1990's and the last outbreak of these filoviruses--ebola, marburg, a book was published called "The Hot Zone". From what I remember reading it was that ebola is actually too good at killing to spread effectively. Let that alley your fears ;-)