Asteroid threats seems only taken seriously when the last close call is fresh in memory. But it didn't last long enough to establish consistent funding. On March 23, 1989, when an asteroid 300 meters in diameter called 1989FC passed within 684 000 kilometers from Earth. New York Times wrote, "In cosmic terms, it was a close call." This event also woke up the powers that were after this arguably close brush with total annihilation. The US Congress asked NASA to prepare a report on the threat posed by asteroids. The document from 1992, "The Spaceguard Survey: Report of the NASA International Near-Earth-Object Detection Workshop," was rather bleak.
If a large Near-Earth Object (NEO) were to hit the Earth, the report said, its denizens could look forward to acid rain, firestorms, and an impact winter induced by dust being thrown kilometers into the stratosphere. After reports from the National Research Council made it clear that meeting the discovery requirement outlined in the Congressional mandate was impossible given the lack of program funding, NEOO got a tenfold budget increase from 2009 to 2014. Yet it still faces a number of difficulties. An audit of the program released September 2014 described the NEOO program as "a one-man operation that is poorly integrated and lacking in objectives and oversight".
Original Submission
(Score: 4, Interesting) by VortexCortex on Tuesday June 30 2015, @11:39PM
Let us not forget Chelyabinsk. [wikipedia.org] The meteor strike released 20-30 times the energy of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, but thankfully it didn't strike ground and exploded in mid-air.
Asteroids much smaller than ones cited in TFA can be considered Nukes minus the EMP and radioactive cleanup. It's as I always say: He who rules the asteroid belt rules the solar system.
In addition to stronger asteroid survey capacity, we also need a deflection strategy. What we really need is a military incentive for a space race to the asteroids, and I think we'll have one in the near future. Whomever sets up a self sustaining colony there wins the whole Sol system. They'll be able to counter anything you launch at them and destroy any city in the entire solar system just by giving a rock the proper nudge.
(Score: 2) by kaszz on Tuesday June 30 2015, @11:56PM
Actually the Hiroshima device was 12-15 kton TNT and asfair the standard device currently is circa 2 Mton TNT so it's not really a good comparison. But yeah still "small" NEOs are a scourge. But they perhaps a smaller landing of such object will prove to be a proper incentive to get people in a position of decision of their asses. But considering the profession that usually populate governments. They will simple outlaw it and it will be gone :D
So perhaps the best hope given the circumstances is a small enough NEO that provides a proper lesson in space realities but still not big enough to damage the civilization at large.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by frojack on Wednesday July 01 2015, @12:24AM
We've had these all along.
But they are rare, and likely to get more rare as time goes on. (Or so says I've heard).
In fact we just finished counting all the impacters of significant size:
http://news.sciencemag.org/earth/2015/06/earths-colossal-crater-count-complete [sciencemag.org]
In 2014, Johnson led a similar study, which found that for craters 85 kilometers in diameter and larger, the geologic record ought to be complete. Based on the rate of impacts and the age of the crust, his team predicted eight craters this size, and there are six or seven that have been confirmed.
Now, Stefan Hergarten and Thomas Kenkmann, geophysicists at the University of Freiburg in Germany, have taken the analysis further and found that the documented record is complete down to much smaller impact craters. For the 70 craters larger than 6 kilometers across, the record is complete, they say: There are no more to be found,
This apparently includes Sea impacts over most of the oceans.
Paywalled: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X15003659 [sciencedirect.com]
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 2) by kaszz on Wednesday July 01 2015, @12:46AM
The important NEOs are those that perhaps will impact Earth not the ones that has. And humans in general may need a live lesson to get the message.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by bob_super on Wednesday July 01 2015, @12:21AM
> destroy any city in the entire solar system just by giving a rock the proper nudge
IN ONLY THREE ORBITS - of 5 years, and provided you don't intercept using an equivalent asteroid-orbit modifying device to counter mine, and hoping my calculations properly encompasses all other orbit-changing factors normally compensated by thrusters - MY VENGANCE WILL BE TERRIBLE!!!!! MUAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!
Wait, you're on a floating city on Neptune? Gimme a few days to crunch some numbers...
IN TWO CENTURIES ... shoot, did you say you could move the floating city, or is it fixed?
(Score: 2) by Freeman on Wednesday July 01 2015, @06:38PM
"It's as I always say: He who rules the asteroid belt rules the solar system." Yeah, because if you don't do what I say, I will unleash giant Asteroids to destroy the earth?? I'm thinking there would be a few people who might be willing to totally destroy someone dumb enough to mess with the Asteroid belt in that way.
Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
(Score: 3, Informative) by MichaelDavidCrawford on Wednesday July 01 2015, @12:16AM
I used to work for astronomer Jeremy Mould. He told me that what we needed were lots of modest sized scopes so everyone could get observing time. What Congress wanted was one single very large scope so we could see farther away but such a scope would be so expensive that the votes to fund it werent there.
Most real astronomical research doesnt require a big scope. Consider MIRA with a thirty inch.
For asteroid detection we need enough scopes to cover the entire sky over the course of a year, in both hemispheres. You want a wide field of view as with the schmidt camera.
Yes I Have No Bananas. [gofundme.com]
(Score: 3, Funny) by bob_super on Wednesday July 01 2015, @12:24AM
> we need enough scopes to cover the entire sky over the course of a year
I'm pretty sure that would settle the dispute about anthropomorphic global warming.
(Score: 2) by frojack on Wednesday July 01 2015, @12:29AM
so everyone could get observing time.
Everyone? Seriously?
Do we not have computers or are they all busy serving ads, sending spam, or skript-kiddy-ing their way into my ssh server?
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 2) by el_oscuro on Wednesday July 01 2015, @02:48AM
or are they all busy serving ads, sending spam, or skript-kiddy-ing their way into my ssh server?
yes.
SoylentNews is Bacon! [nueskes.com]
(Score: 2) by kaszz on Wednesday July 01 2015, @12:31AM
How much does a proper scope for NEO observation contribution cost? and what are the more detailed specifications?
I recall some filthy rich person giving away loads of analog video cameras when those were expansive and used cassettes to a lot of people all around the globe in order to tape abuse of people in order to deal with the issue by publication. Perhaps something similar is needed to address this?
It would be kind of hilarious if an asteroid were found months in advance to have a course to hit some important persons property. Unlikely to ever happen.. oops ;)
(Score: 2) by bob_super on Wednesday July 01 2015, @12:42AM
> It would be kind of hilarious if an asteroid were found months in advance to have a
> course to hit some important persons property. Unlikely to ever happen..
With 70% of the place covered in water, and so much premium on beachfront property, it's more likely than not that any touchdown above a certain rock size will wipe out VIP real estate.
(Score: 2) by takyon on Wednesday July 01 2015, @01:54AM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planetary_Resources [wikipedia.org]
[SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
(Score: 3, Interesting) by MichaelDavidCrawford on Wednesday July 01 2015, @05:22AM
schmidt cameras arecwuite difficult to make as they use a correcting lens in the front that has a complex shape. Maybe $100,000.00 for a thirty inch.
You need real estate that is free of light pollution but a national or state park might permit it.
You need someone to operate it, they need living expenses. Automation can reduce the cost of that but not eliminate it.
Yes I Have No Bananas. [gofundme.com]
(Score: 1) by Absolutely.Geek on Wednesday July 01 2015, @12:39AM
I just did a quick calculation of the kenetic energy of an inro astroid of 300m in diameter traveling at 46000mph reletive to Earth....I was thinking 300m isn't really that big in the scheme of things....turns out that KE=44.5GT of TNT.
This is assuming pure iron (density of 7870kg/m^3). But still even if the density is 1/2 that of iron; we are still talking 10's of GT in energy release for a modest sized impactor. Once the size goes to the km diameter range things look bleak.
Don't trust the police or the government - Shihad: My mind's sedate.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by stormwyrm on Wednesday July 01 2015, @01:50AM
Here's a good link for actual computations: http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/tekton/crater_c.html [arizona.edu]
Your asteroid would make a crater 8 km wide or so. Your energy calculations seem to be a little off though. Kinetic energy is "only" about 10 gigatons TNT (4.45×1019 J) for pure iron. Enough to make an 8 km wide crater where it lands if it hit at a 90° angle. Even if your impactor were only made of ice (1000 kg / m3), we're still talking 1.3 gigatons, still quite enough to cause vast, worldwide destruction.
Numquam ponenda est pluralitas sine necessitate.
(Score: 2) by stormwyrm on Wednesday July 01 2015, @03:34AM
Numquam ponenda est pluralitas sine necessitate.
(Score: 1) by Absolutely.Geek on Wednesday July 01 2015, @10:40PM
Thanks that is a cool calculator. I get about 6GT. Still for a "small" impactor that is devistating.
Don't trust the police or the government - Shihad: My mind's sedate.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 01 2015, @12:59AM
I thought that was the one we really had to worry about, b/c that would take civilization back 30,000 years, but I'm not on top of these things.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 01 2015, @01:43AM
What about a km-sized asteroid, carrying unexploded thermonuclear bombs left by a dying Bruce Willis, strikes Yellowstone?
Who you gonna call? Mythbusters.
(Score: 2) by arslan on Wednesday July 01 2015, @04:46AM
Well, I'm not a big fan of the self proclaimed World Police that is the U.S. of A. But what are _other_ nations doing about a possible scenario that effects all of humanity? At least the U.S. tried to do initiate something, although with pitiful results.... maybe there are other initiatives by other countries? I don't know, haven't seen much news about it. Anyone care to share? Maybe that's the real reason Kim Jong Un executed his airport architect - by launching him to intercept a NEO?
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 01 2015, @05:27PM
It isn't "self proclaimed". It becomes de facto because everyone else in the West sits on their hands and waits for the US to do something, especially the EU. Well, that's not fair. They don't sit on their hands, they wring their hands and issue strongly worded proclamations. Russia rolling into Ukraine? We'll shame them to leave. In Kosovo you had ethnic cleansing and holocaust. It was in their own fucking backyard and they didn't do shit until the US stepped in. A million people murdered in Rwanda and they didn't do shit except to officially say that what was going on was bad and that if it didn't stop, someone ought to do something about it.
The EU WANTS the US to be the police. That way they don't need to make the sacrifices or make the hard decisions. They don't need to maintain a large military infrastructure nor presence anywhere. They can send in (after much arm twisting) their token troops for patrols and contribute behind the scenes. They get security, and they get to hypocritically complain about US presence. Win-win!
(Score: 2) by Dr Spin on Wednesday July 01 2015, @08:42AM
Surely a Zombie invasion is a far bigger risk than an avoidable hit by an asteroid that might do serious damage?
Why not address more serious, imminent, threats like Alzheimers, Ebola, or plague. Even if globule warming is
not man made, it will still do us in before an asteroid.
Here in Europe, invasion by people whose own country is a political mess is a serious problem. perhaps something
(other than US invasion) could be tried there?
Asteroid defence is just another American political pork barrel - fortunately not a very full one. Lets keep it that way.
Warning: Opening your mouth may invalidate your brain!
(Score: 2) by ragequit on Wednesday July 01 2015, @07:40PM
It would hilarious if we cured cancer and then 3 months later got obliterated by an asteroid we didn't see coming.
The above views are fabricated for your reading pleasure.
(Score: 1) by Absolutely.Geek on Wednesday July 01 2015, @11:02PM
It is an interesting point you made; but I propose that we work on all of the issues at once.
Don't trust the police or the government - Shihad: My mind's sedate.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 01 2015, @07:08PM
Seems like a "hit or miss" type of operation.