Geoff Ralston has an interesting essay explaining why is likely that electric car penetration in the US will take off at an exponential rate over the next 5-10 years rendering laughable the paltry predictions of future electric car sales being made today. Present projections assume that electric car sales will slowly increase as the technology gets marginally better, and as more and more customers choose to forsake a better product (the gasoline car) for a worse, yet "greener" version. According to Ralston this view of the future is, simply, wrong. - electric cars will take over our roads because consumers will demand them. "Electric cars will be better than any alternative, including the loud, inconvenient, gas-powered jalopy," says Ralston. "The Tesla Model S has demonstrated that a well made, well designed electric car is far superior to anything else on the road. This has changed everything."
The Tesla Model S has sold so well because, compared to old-fashioned gasoline cars it is more fun to drive, quieter, always "full" every morning, more roomy, and it continuously gets better with automatic updates and software improvements. According to Ralston the tipping point will come when gas stations, not a massively profitable business, start to go out of business as many more electric cars are sold, making gasoline powered vehicles even more inconvenient. When that happens even more gasoline car owners will be convinced to switch. Rapidly a tipping point will be reached, at which point finding a convenient gas station will be nearly impossible and owning a gasoline powered car will positively suck. "Elon Musk has ushered in the age of the electric car, and whether or not it, too, was inevitable, it has certainly begun," concludes Ralston. "The future of automotive transportation is an electric one and you can expect that future to be here soon."
(Score: 4, Interesting) by Taibhsear on Thursday July 30 2015, @10:04PM
One problem I foresee with this is renters. Where do you charge your electric vehicle if you don't have a garage? They either need to get the cars to recharge way faster or find a way to charge cars on the street. Gas stations aren't going anywhere, they're just going to incorporate emergency charging stations. Full disclaimer: I'm wholly for electric vehicles. This, and the current high prices, are the only things holding me back right now.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by RedBear on Friday July 31 2015, @01:44AM
Many municipalities are already requiring and/or allowing the installation of curbside charging posts for those who need to park on the street. There will no doubt continue to be tremendous progress on this issue in the next few years for apartment dwellers and HOA victims and anyone else who currently has difficulty finding a place to plug in overnight. There is also progress happening on workplace charging.
It's a popular idea that gas stations will install quick-charge (not "emergency") stations, and some will be successful at this, but many EV drivers have absolutely no interest in charging their nice, clean EVs at a filthy, smelly gas station surrounded by noisy, exhaust-belching ICE vehicles gassing up. That's really the antithesis of the EV experience. Eventually the main areas where you will probably find good public charging infrastructure is around malls, restaurants and other places where the owners want people to spend 30+ minutes shopping or eating. It will be offered to customers just like free Wi-Fi. Those are the chargers that most people will want to use, because they were going to that location anyway. Gas stations that don't evolve to be very clean and quiet and have some sort of compelling shopping or dining experience will not do well even if they install EV chargers.
It is important to remember that in most cases people won't actually need an extensive quick charge on their vehicle. Most of the time, even on a slow charger, the vehicle will just be topping itself up while the driver is at home for the night or at work for several hours, after driving no more than a couple dozen miles. Most people drastically overestimate the A) the number of public quick chargers that will be needed to service millions of EV drivers, and B) the impact it will have on the electrical grid. The grid has been estimated to be able to support tens of millions of EVs without really being upgraded at all.
In my estimation, based on watching this whole field very closely for several years now, I predict that a significant tipping point will be not right now but about 2017-2020. The Chevy Bolt EV (and the Volt Plug-in Hybrid EV, or PHEV, which is already very popular), the next-gen Nissan LEAF, and the Tesla Model 3 as well as probably at least a couple of other 200+ mile range affordable EVs will be on the market and widely available by then. At least one "gigafactory" for producing the necessary number of batteries will be in full swing by then also, so there should be no difficulty in producing a significant number of vehicles for sale. By that time many more people will have also experienced or at least seen or heard of the Tesla S/X vehicles as well.
So yes, I believe about two to three years from now EV sales will go absolutely bonkers, and automakers that have refused to develop EVs or PHEVs with good electric range are going to start needing a steady supply of adult diapers as they watch the ICE passenger vehicle market suddenly start groaning to a halt. It's a huge market, so it will take a long time, but that will be seen as the inflection point where it will start to die. Not 10-15 years, 2-3 years. Five years is already stretching it, in my opinion.
¯\_ʕ◔.◔ʔ_/¯ LOL. I dunno. I'm just a bear.
... Peace out. Got bear stuff to do. 彡ʕ⌐■.■ʔ
(Score: 3, Informative) by mhajicek on Friday July 31 2015, @04:54AM
I think for many the projected total cost of ownership will be the deciding factor. They'll pay a higher purchase price if the reduced energy and maintenance costs will more than balance out. Once the point is reached that the electrics with the lowest cost of ownership beat out the ice ones with the lowest cost of ownership, I expect the market to really start swinging.
The spacelike surfaces of time foliations can have a cusp at the surface of discontinuity. - P. Hajicek
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 31 2015, @08:16AM
So there are places that require it, but don't allow it?
(Score: 2, Flamebait) by RedBear on Friday July 31 2015, @09:38AM
On the off chance that you aren't just being funny:
I was just trying to convey that in some areas (like California) they are drafting regulations that _require_ building owners to install a certain number of EV chargers. Meanwhile, in other areas regulations are being written to _allow_ renters and victims of overzealous Home Owners Associations to install EV chargers over the objections of the building owners or HOAs. Obviously if it is required then it is allowed, but just because it's allowed doesn't mean it's required.
If you were just trying to be funny:
Haha. Ha ha ha. Amusing. *wipes away tear*
¯\_ʕ◔.◔ʔ_/¯ LOL. I dunno. I'm just a bear.
... Peace out. Got bear stuff to do. 彡ʕ⌐■.■ʔ
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Friday July 31 2015, @10:56AM
Thanks for the pithy post. I think you're right. One thing I would add is that this is a shift that car owners will want to get in on early while their gas cars still have trade-in value.
I'm actually the last one in my family to get an electric car (because my brother is an automotive engineer who wanted to try out the tech and my brother-in-law works at a high-end BMW dealership and got a sweetheart deal), so I've been able to experience the future. The driving experience beats any gas-powered car I've ever driven. The acceleration is instantly responsive and quiet. That's a wonderful thing for me because I have a lot of difficulty discerning conversation in noisy environments, so it means I can actually talk to my wife and kids when we're in the car. The braking is great. It's excellent to be done with changing the oil and all of that maintenance crap. It's incredibly convenient. You plug it in at night like you would your laptop or iPhone and the next morning you're good to go again, so it fits in with your daily routines for other things; no more waiting for a spot at the gas station or having to flip around because your gas cap is on the other side. Not having to deal with any of the nonsense that surrounds gas cars is quite liberating.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 1) by rheaghen on Friday July 31 2015, @06:06PM
The price isnt holding you back:
http://www.carmax.com/search?search=Nissan%20Leaf&Ep=homepage:homepage [carmax.com]
http://bit.ly/1LV8C38 [bit.ly]
15 minute Fast DC Chargers are abundant:
http://www.plugshare.com/?latitude=39.707187&longitude=-98.349609&zoom=4& [plugshare.com]
If you live in a major city, I'd wager you just don't have to courage to embrace the unknown before its the status quo.
(Score: 2) by Taibhsear on Monday August 03 2015, @06:33PM
A new Leaf is $29,000. That's twice what I paid for my car. Yes it is holding me back. If by "courage" you mean "stupidity to spend my entire savings" then yes.
(Score: 4, Interesting) by bob_super on Thursday July 30 2015, @10:08PM
That would take a massive drop in prices. Just because most people don't need more range than is currently available doesn't mean that the electric car is ready for everyone.
Look at Norway: price parity and good public infrastructure is what's driving sales through the roof. In the US? Nowhere near that point.
As for the gas stations vanishing... it's gonna take a while, you see, with all the poor and the appartment dwellers not jumping to electric until the used prices touch 5k or less. And that's a good thing for the electric grid, because that won't be ready for quite a while either.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 31 2015, @12:52AM
> That would take a massive drop in prices.
Used Nissan Leafs sell below $10K all the time now. [cargurus.com] It ain't 5K, but it is getting close.
(Score: 2) by RedBear on Friday July 31 2015, @02:51AM
The very next generation of EVs coming out within the next 2-3 years are supposed to have 200+ miles of range and be priced below $35,000 (that's pre-incentives). There are already used EVs for under $10,000, and by all reports EV batteries are holding up remarkable well over time (as long as you don't get one of the early LEAF batteries that can't handle too much heat), so used EVs are generally considered a good buy. It would certainly help if we did better with incentives, like Norway, but for everyone who still believes EVs are too expensive there are a ton of people redoing the math every year and suddenly realizing EVs are actually far less expensive than they initially appear.
This business of the electrical grid needing significant upgrades to handle EVs is a persistent but incorrect myth. Multiple studies have already been done that show the current grid can handle tens of millions of EVs. It's very important to realize that the usage patterns of the average vehicle, even here in the US, means that a typical EV will only need to replenish a relatively small portion of its battery every day, after only driving on average around 36 miles. With EV ranges of 200+ miles about to become common, that means most drivers will be able to set their vehicle to recharge slowly overnight, at home, using only a few kilowatts of electricity. That's how most EV drivers will end up doing most of their charging with these new higher-range EVs. We already have EV drivers charging 90+% at home with vehicles that only have between 50-100 miles of range. With higher-range EVs, that will probably approach 95%.
Millions of EVs recharging at night will help fill in the "bathtub" of reduced energy usage at night and help power plants run more efficiently, reducing the extremes of ramping up and down their power output. Overall, until we get beyond tens of millions of EVs, it will actually be beneficial to the grid. By that time we will be collectively saving so much by not using fossil fuels that we'll have more tax revenue available to do any grid upgrades that are necessary. There will also be a significant increase in home solar installations and home battery storage during the intervening time period. I do not foresee the advent of the EV age to cause any significant issues with the national grid. We'll probably have more trouble adjusting the grid to accommodate significant levels of solar and wind inputs and bi-directional power flows from home solar feeding back into the grid than we ever will from charging EVs.
But that's just my personal assessment of the situation.
¯\_ʕ◔.◔ʔ_/¯ LOL. I dunno. I'm just a bear.
... Peace out. Got bear stuff to do. 彡ʕ⌐■.■ʔ
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 31 2015, @03:38AM
> (as long as you don't get one of the early LEAF batteries that can't handle too much heat),
Nissan is giving free replacements to people with those. In fact, if you buy a used one with a bad battery you can get a pretty good discount because of the degraded capacity and then once you own it you can get a brand new battery from Nissan.
> Multiple studies have already been done that show the current grid can handle tens of millions of EVs.
Links please.
(Score: 3, Informative) by RedBear on Friday July 31 2015, @05:14AM
This first link that comes up isn't exactly positive, but notice the quote. It's just a matter of setting the vehicle to charge slowly through the night. This is already common knowledge among EV owners and every current EV has the ability to schedule charging:
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/518066/could-electric-cars-threaten-the-grid/ [technologyreview.com]
Here's a link regarding Germany's grid. Note that Germany has about 1/4th the population of the US and that per-household European electricity usage stands at about a quarter what the typical American household already uses, so essentially as a _very_ rough estimate they are saying they can handle a million EVs with no problem on a grid that is currently designed to deliver 1/16th the total energy that the typical American neighborhood grid is already designed to handle. The equivalent EV population in the US would then be at least 16 million vehicles.
http://www.metering.com/germany-s-power-grid-able-to-handle-1-million-electric-vehicles/ [metering.com]
Remember we're just talking about people charging at home. Public charging infrastructure is not considered a problem, as they are part of commercial circuits that are already using massive quantities of electricity compared to what a neighborhood grid is designed to handle.
I know this is CleanTechnica, but:
http://cleantechnica.com/2014/02/03/grid-capacity-electric-vehicles-actually-problem-studies-find/ [cleantechnica.com]
I've seen people quote this 150 million EV number. Not sure how legit that is:
http://insideevs.com/dont-worry-us-grid-capable-of-supporting-up-to-150-million-electric-vehicles/ [insideevs.com]
Here's Forbes in 2013, not exactly a den of hippies:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterdetwiler/2013/01/28/electric-cars-and-the-power-grid-how-are-they-coming-together/ [forbes.com]
I wasn't prepared with any of this, this is just from a few minutes of Googling. I haven't seen contrary evidence that EVs are going to pose any serious issue for the grid if handled appropriately. Especially once Vehicle-to-Grid technology becomes widespread, letting millions of EVs briefly return energy to the grid or power homes during the morning/evening peak energy use periods.
¯\_ʕ◔.◔ʔ_/¯ LOL. I dunno. I'm just a bear.
... Peace out. Got bear stuff to do. 彡ʕ⌐■.■ʔ
(Score: 2) by bob_super on Friday July 31 2015, @04:57PM
> So instead of a surge of power demand when people get home from work, the charging is spread out through the night.
Unless you triple the price of electricity from 5 to 9PM, I'm pretty sure most americans will always get their car charged as soon as possible, "just in case".
Come home right after sunset, plug the car, turn on all the lights, computer (just joking, it was still on), TV, A/C, microwave, electric range... when you get past the earth-conscious early adopters and get into the normal market, you can be sure the grid is going to have to deal with the sum of our selfishness.
(Score: 2) by RedBear on Friday July 31 2015, @07:20PM
1. Some areas do have significantly higher prices for peak electricity vs. off-peak. That is definitely one thing that will motivate the typical American penny-pincher to schedule charging during off-peak hours.
2. A promising phenomenon seems to happen with a lot of people who drive EVs, and not just "EV advocates" but really anyone who drives an EV for a while. Because there is such a visible and direct correlation between driving style, energy used per mile/kilometer, and usable range, it becomes a psychologically rewarding game to most drivers to drive as efficiently as possible. This seems to happen not just with 55-mile range i-MiEVs and 80-mile range LEAFs but also with high-range vehicles like the Model S where under most circumstances you don't really need to pay any attention to the range. This completely unprovoked "gamification" effect also translates into increased awareness of how much energy is needed to recharge and thus by extension when it would be absolutely cheapest to do so. It also triggers a lot of EV drivers to look at installing solar so they can enhance their ability to "stick it to the man" and effectively pay the electric company even less to charge their EV. In other words, driving an EV tends to turn people into Earth-conscious hippies even if they weren't one to begin with. It's a very interesting phenomenon.
I'm sure that won't happen to everyone, but it will be part of the perception change that will cause society to continue evolving toward being increasingly aware of our overall energy usage patterns. I'm also sure that the typical American will continue to find many other things to be selfish about.
¯\_ʕ◔.◔ʔ_/¯ LOL. I dunno. I'm just a bear.
... Peace out. Got bear stuff to do. 彡ʕ⌐■.■ʔ
(Score: 2) by theluggage on Friday July 31 2015, @10:47AM
Look at Norway: price parity and good public infrastructure is what's driving sales through the roof.
This was discussed a week or two back: Norway offers huge subsidies on EVs: purchase tax breaks, vehicle duty breaks, free toll road use, free ferries etc. (in an economy with higher income but higher taxation & cost of living c.f. the US). Also, Norway has massive hydroelectric power generation capability, so the benefit of EVs in terms of CO2 emissions and energy self-sufficiency is very clear there (part of the justification for the subsidies).
(Score: 4, Informative) by KilroySmith on Thursday July 30 2015, @10:17PM
I drive 30 miles each way to work every day. My next commuter car will be electric to do that daily grind.
However, I also make 400 mile road trips several times a year to visit family. Right now, I can't do that with the available electic cars unless I buy a Tesla - and that only works because there's a supercharger station halfway between Phoenix and L.A. If I was visiting family in, say, Las Cruces NM or Dallas TX I'd be out of luck.
That's why I expect that I'll own at least one gas-powered vehicle for the next 20 years.
(Score: 2) by Ken_g6 on Thursday July 30 2015, @11:08PM
What if more places install supercharger stations? Would that make your 400 mile road trip something you'd want to do in an electric car?
(Score: 2) by KilroySmith on Friday July 31 2015, @05:26AM
when Supercharger stations become nearly as ubiquitous as gas stations, then yes.
Cities are a long way apart out here in the west.
(Score: 3, Informative) by slinches on Thursday July 30 2015, @11:24PM
I'm in a similar situation, but I plan on purchasing an Elio [eliomotors.com] instead of an electric car. With such a low price and high mileage ($6800 and >60 mpg combined cycle) the TCO over five years for me is ~$10k, which is less than just the purchase price of any other similarly capable vehicle (electric or otherwise). The only thing that could match the low cost and high efficiency is a motorcycle or scooter and those are far less safe and exposed to weather.
(Score: 2) by RedBear on Friday July 31 2015, @03:06AM
I really sincerely wish you the best of luck in actually acquiring an Elio, but from what I have read about it they are continuing to have a significant problem getting funded. They need something like $150 million more just to get mass production started. As far as I know, no three-wheeled vehicle has ever succeeded in the marketplace despite many tries, and their price point seems like a pipe dream. I'd be really surprised if they could produce it for less than 2-3 times that price. The American market seems to see oddball compact vehicles like the Elio as far too limiting versus a regular compact car. They just never succeed beyond a small cult following, and I don't see how the Elio will be any different.
It would be super cool to see things like the Elio or the Corbin Sparrow [google.com] available and driving around, but I would not personally bet on that horse rather than investing in a used Nissan LEAF or something. The American market just seems to consider them expensive third-vehicle hobby toys for rich people.
¯\_ʕ◔.◔ʔ_/¯ LOL. I dunno. I'm just a bear.
... Peace out. Got bear stuff to do. 彡ʕ⌐■.■ʔ
(Score: 3, Interesting) by slinches on Friday July 31 2015, @04:08AM
Yeah, at 2-3x the price it would be far less appealing and only justifiable as a rather lame toy. The reason I think it could work this time is that the cost is low enough that it would be cheaper to buy an Elio and keep your regular car than to pay for the gas and maintenance costs of driving that regular car. As far as meeting that cost target goes, the CEO has stated that if they pushed the current design into production, that they are only ~$500 over the target price. So it seems that it isn't far off and the approach of using off the shelf components and offering the more expensive upgrade features as options appears to be sound.
The funding situation is looking better too. They just met a goal of 25 million in private investor interest over at startengine.com. That money is slated to fund the fleet of 25 test vehicles and associated validation testing. The rest of the funds to tool up the production line and start making vehicles will likely come from the government ATVM loan that Elio has applied for. Assuming the loan comes through, they should be in good financial shape after that. There are already 44,000 reservations made, so they know there's demand to go into high volume production immediately.
All that being said, there's still a high risk of failure. That comes with the territory of start ups, especially those in the automotive industry. That's why I haven't put money down for a reservation yet. Instead I plan to invest that $1000 through the regulation A+ offering. If they succeed and go into full production, I'll probably be able to get an Elio with the profit. If not, I'm only out as much as any of the thousands of people who put in non-refundable deposits.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by ese002 on Friday July 31 2015, @12:28AM
However, I also make 400 mile road trips several times a year to visit family. Right now, I can't do that with the available electic cars unless I buy a Tesla - and that only works because there's a supercharger station halfway between Phoenix and L.A. If I was visiting family in, say, Las Cruces NM or Dallas TX I'd be out of luck.
How many and how long are these trips? It may be cheaper to rent a gas or (better) a diesel powered vehicle for these trips.
(Score: 2) by theluggage on Friday July 31 2015, @11:09AM
How many and how long are these trips? It may be cheaper to rent a gas or (better) a diesel powered vehicle for these trips.
Indeed, and I believe that BMW have a scheme whereby if you buy one of their EVs, you can borrow a petrol burner for free.
However, its not all about cost. With the current price premium you're not going to save money with a private EV anytime soon (maybe with certain company car/leasing schemes involving tax breaks).
People like having their own car, that they chose, with their stuff, that they can use when they want for as long as they want. They like being able to head off on a whim, or in an emergency - even if they don't do it that often. If you want a hire car you've got to book it, arrange transport to pick it up (or pay extra for delivery and arrange to be in when it arrives), sign insurance waivers etc. Its another factor to go wrong on your weekend away. Not exactly the trials of Hercules, but something that you don't have to worry about with a compact petrol car that is good for both daily commuting and road trips. That's a hard pill to swallow at the same time as paying 50% over the odds for an EV.
Bottom line is that current EVs work well for people who can charge them at home and/or work, already expect to run two or more cars and/or never need to drive further than the nearest airport. That's a substantial market, but it doesn't suit everybody.
(Score: 1) by rheaghen on Friday July 31 2015, @06:11PM
... Or get a well equipped DC Generator that can do 30-40 amps at 400-500 volts. 15 minutes here and there wouldn't a big deal...
(Score: 2) by Grishnakh on Friday July 31 2015, @01:53AM
They'll probably have more Supercharger stations installed within 5 years, making the other trips feasible.
Also, you can always just rent a car for the 400mi trips.
(Score: 2) by RedBear on Friday July 31 2015, @02:19AM
1. The very next generation of affordable EVs coming out will have 200+ miles of range. Nissan LEAF, Chevy Bolt, Tesla Model 3, etc. They will all be out and widely available by 2017-2018. And there will probably be two or three other models out by then or shortly thereafter. They will start to become available as used vehicles within 2-3 years after that.
2. The public quick-charging infrastructure is improving every year. Especially the Tesla Supercharger network, so if you get a Tesla Model 3... A long trip that might have caused you a problem in an EV last year will most likely not be an issue within a couple of years. There are about to be millions of EV drivers demanding improvements to public EV charging availability.
3. In my opinion most people will not find it economically beneficial to own any pure ICE vehicle beyond about 10 years from now. Holdouts will make it to 15 years, maybe. I very much doubt that you will still have any pure ICE vehicle 20 years from now. Even people with old classic ICE cars are starting to convert them to electric.
I'm not even confident that Plug-in Hybrids (PHEVs), even ones with 80+ miles of all-electric range, will be considered a good thing to own 20 years from now. The economics of fossil fuels and public opinion about using any amount of fossil fuels for transportation are going to be completely transformed during the next two decades. Hell, ultra-conservative Texans are starting to drive electric cars because they're tired of America being dependent on foreign oil. Everything is changing quite rapidly. I think it's going to take an awful lot of people by surprise.
¯\_ʕ◔.◔ʔ_/¯ LOL. I dunno. I'm just a bear.
... Peace out. Got bear stuff to do. 彡ʕ⌐■.■ʔ
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Friday July 31 2015, @11:07AM
My brother has a BMW i3 EV he uses every day for his commute. He also has a gas-powered crossover. Maybe that's your solution. Or fly and use a rental locally if it costs less than carrying the insurance, registration, and annual maintenance for the gas car for those handful of trips.
But as others have pointed out EV fast-chargers will grow rapidly and battery capacity too and you probably won't have any worries about where to recharge in a couple years.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 2, Informative) by Absolutely.Geek on Thursday July 30 2015, @10:35PM
I live in New Zealand......turns out we are not important enough to have a dealership here.
I could buy one from Australia; but at $120kAUD plus all the taxes to get it here the Model S ends up being around $200 - $240kNZD depending on exchange rate. When compared to a really nice brand new petrol / diesel car at $90kNZD or a top end car at $120kNZD it is just not on the option list. Then comparing that to a low end but nice new car (Mitzy MIrage, Suzki Swift etc) at $25kNZD it really puts into perspective how much getting a Tesla is in NZ.
If the Model S with the 85kW battery was around $130 - $150kNZD; they would sell here. I would serriously consider getting one.....really serriously.
Don't trust the police or the government - Shihad: My mind's sedate.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday July 30 2015, @11:15PM
One further problem with owning a car like that in NZ is that, once you pass Christchurch on the way south, wages crash fast. I work for a business that has two offices, one in Chch and one in Dunedin. I found out yesterday that one of the junior employees in Chch was moaning that he was low paid at $55k+ a year for 40 hour weeks, and he was complaining about it to the guy who did the same job in Dunedin for $28,600/year for 50+ hour weeks. (Yes, that's less than minimum wage.) This is standard for Dunedin.
My brother earns $60k for a job lesser than my previous one, where I earned 32k/year but worked double the hours.
The difference? He works for the council, I work for a private business owned by a multimillionaire and run by a sociopath.
(Score: 3, Funny) by arslan on Thursday July 30 2015, @11:26PM
You guys get Denny's.. we get Tesla.. fair dinkum mate.
(Score: 1) by Absolutely.Geek on Thursday July 30 2015, @11:42PM
Dennys WTF! crappy food vs the best electric car in the world (for now). I'll take the car; there are plenty of places where I an buy a crappy meal.
Don't trust the police or the government - Shihad: My mind's sedate.
(Score: 2) by mhajicek on Friday July 31 2015, @05:25AM
Contact Tesla and see if you can be a dealer
The spacelike surfaces of time foliations can have a cusp at the surface of discontinuity. - P. Hajicek
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Rich on Friday July 31 2015, @12:43AM
in Germany was at an all time high in 1969 with over 45.000. Now, even, including the former GDR, that has dropped to below 15.000. Yet that inconvenience doesn't keep people from buying and operating petrol powered vehicles over here. Even if that means an extra consumption of maybe 1% because of needed detours to fill up.
I think the age of the electric car will come when battery prices drop far enough. IIRC, right now, a kWh of battery goes for around $300. Multiply that by roughly 80 kWh of a Model S, and you're at $24k cost to the manufacturer for the battery pack alone. Good enough for Tesla to compete with E-Class or 5-Series (except for the low end taxi versions), but no way an econobox or urban runabout can remotely be possible at this price point.
Now, when the battery price has dropped to $100 per kWh and a reasonably light small car can have its 40kWh battery at $4k, we can start discussing a retail price of $15k. And that's where it gets really, really interesting.
I expect the Model S to become a significant challenger to mentioned executive sedans; in certain regions it already is; from there they will work down with the upcoming model 3, and eventually the battery price will enable something really small. This path appears somewhat one-directional, btw, because every electric car owner seems to become religiously convinced. I certainly won't rule out the submission's speculation that a serious possibility is indeed a point where the growth explodes. "Linear" acceleration of the process is to be expected when serious competition appears, but the exponential thing might happen when public opinion flips over from range anxiety to fear of embarrassment for showing up in a new petrol car. After all, most private cars are highly emotional acquisitions far away from cost/utility considerations.
(*) a "gas station" would be some pipeline distribution point; usually for methane, wouldn't it?
(Score: 2) by RedBear on Friday July 31 2015, @03:50AM
Yes, yes, a thousand times yes! This "halo" effect from the experience of driving an EV for a while is something that continues to be drastically underestimated by people who haven't been paying any attention to the advent of EVs. People buy or lease or borrow an EV for a while and find that it's fun to drive (immediate, high torque from zero), quiet, and clean. Then for various reasons they have to go back to an ICE vehicle (rental car, accident loaner, EV lease ended, whatever) and almost universally people seem to react negatively to what is now perceived as a bit of an obnoxious experience. You don't notice when you've driven one all your life, but the typical ICE vehicle smells bad in various different ways, is noisy, and is rather inconvenient to refuel at what is suddenly perceived as a dirty, smelly, inconveniently-located gas station that leaves a horrible gas/oil odor attached to your clothes. Something happens in peoples' brains when they spend a solid month or so never visiting a gas station, never revving a gas engine, never having difficulty starting the engine, never smelling their vehicle's exhaust, etc. Many people don't even realized they've become converted until they go back to an ICE vehicle.
The young people of today are not putting up posters in their bedrooms of Lamborghinis and Ferraris. They're wishing they could save up enough pennies to get a Tesla Model X P90D with Ludicrous Mode that they can use to take their friends on long road trips to anywhere they feel like for "free", without wasting a single dollar on fuel. The effect of this perception change that is currently in progress should not be underestimated. This is why the EV market will go nuts long before the price of EVs ostensibly approaches parity with ICE vehicles. The idea that no one will really start buying EVs en masse before the price drastically comes down is kind of a red herring. The equation in the buyer's mind that triggers a sale just isn't that simple anymore. To many people, even just the idea of being able to feel good about driving while no longer being an active tail-pipe polluter is really worth a significant number of dollars on that sales contract.
(Yes, yes, much of grid still runs on dirty coal, but you'll still be putting out 50% less CO2 even in dirty West Virginia and more importantly THAT ISN'T WHAT MATTERS TO MOST PEOPLE. All people mostly emotionally care about is that there is nothing dirty emanating directly from their own personal vehicle. The EV isn't polluting their own neighborhood, their own town, their own city. That's apparently what people find easy to care about. That is what is driving people to buy EVs.)
¯\_ʕ◔.◔ʔ_/¯ LOL. I dunno. I'm just a bear.
... Peace out. Got bear stuff to do. 彡ʕ⌐■.■ʔ
(Score: 2) by theluggage on Friday July 31 2015, @10:32AM
Now, even, including the former GDR, that has dropped to below 15.000. Yet that inconvenience doesn't keep people from buying and operating petrol powered vehicles over here.
There's been a similar decline of 'local' petrol stations here in the UK (and a corresponding proliferation of pop-up 'hand car-washes' until the old forecourts get demolished) - but the reason is that the big supermarkets got into the petrol business and now the majority of people fill up on their regular shopping trips - no detour needed. So, for most people, there's no inconvenience.
(Score: 2) by Appalbarry on Friday July 31 2015, @02:13AM
The North Shore of Vancouver is awash in Teslas. One of our clients, a doctor, bought a Tesla S around the start of the year. It's his daily driver, with chargers at home, and at his work.
I asked him this week what his impressions were after a few months - new tech is always exciting when it's new, but that glow can disappear pretty fast.
He's actually still really happy with the Tesla - the performance, the quiet, the chance to not buy gasoline.
What he's really appreciating now though are the little touches that Tesla has added - door handles that pop out as you approach the car, and other little things linked to the key fob. He ran down a few more things that individually seem minor, but in total make the car a pleasure to own and operate.
They are a two car family, so the minivan (two preschool kids) remains, but all in all he would buy another Tesla without hesitation My guess is that when the Model 3 hits the market you'll see a lot of S models for sale as pre-owned - the timing should hit that sweet spot when people are ready to trade-in and upgrade.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 31 2015, @03:40AM
> What he's really appreciating now though are the little touches that Tesla has added
Did you ask him what he thinks about Tesla data-mining his travels minute-by-minute? The GPS doesn't even work if there is no cellular connectivity.
(Score: 0, Disagree) by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 31 2015, @05:08AM
and it continuously gets better with automatic updates and software improvements.
Car gets automatic updates. What could go wrong? Well, it could kill you if it wants to, if you've become a problem or a potential problem.
I don't see how anyone aware of their security and privacy would allow themselves to be monitored and let automatic software updates made to their vehicle. And btw, why don't they fix the software once, and call it a day instead of continuous updates to their spyware (and deathware)?
A vehicle is something very personal that becomes part of one's self and identity. A car capable of killing you all on its own when it wants to is not an option for many people. When I sit in the driver's seat, I expect the car to obey my input without questions or hesitations. A car that knows about me and continuously monitors me is a spying box that I will stay far away from. Forever. Vehicles and electric vehicles in general are becoming spy boxes instead of cars they were meant to be.
All this means I will stay with my diesel that I can drive for 450 km in one tank.
If you are aware what software in a vehicle can do (and has done), its your duty as a human being to warn others of the dangers that these things pose. Some important people investigating the establishment recently died in their new cars, and this was discussed a few days back and some of the links posted scared me shitless.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 31 2015, @08:33AM
> I don't see how anyone aware of their security and privacy would allow themselves to be monitored and let automatic software updates made to their vehicle.
Because 99.9% of the population don't need to worry about being killed by hackers.
> And btw, why don't they fix the software once, and call it a day instead of continuous updates to their spyware (and deathware)?
Comments like that will cause anyone with half a brain to immediately stop paying attention to anything valid you might have to say because the concept of "fixing the software once" is profoundly ignorant of the way any form of engineering works. That's like saying why do they keep making new car models and call it a day instead of updating the design every year?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 31 2015, @08:55AM
Bringing out a new model is not the same as fixing the old model. In this case, the automatic updates fix issues with the vehicle. Why not keep it in the factory and fix it, it can't be that hard. Its a car, not an OS. They are taking the maximum profit for the least amount of work: Lets sell this turd while engineering figures out how to squash all the bugs in this bait shop.
A single bad update will cause issues in vehicles. Its not a website we are talking about. Its physical hardware that weighs many many kilograms.
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Friday July 31 2015, @11:16AM
Disconnect the antenna. Problem solved, paranoia averted.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by dboz87 on Friday July 31 2015, @06:09PM
I'm just waiting for the day that the government starts taxing the sale of electric cars to cover the shortfall in gas taxes. Roads don't build and repair themselves.