from the hanging-out-with-like-minded-people-is-boring dept.
[translation mine] Arab Spring 2011: Young people take to the streets, they fight for a better life. Only when the movement grows do older people gain the courage to join them.
Why did the young people see the possibility for change, but not their elders? Network researchers believe to have found a reason: the young people were able to imagine that the majority of the people stood behind them. They were under the so-called "Illusion of Majority."
People orient themselves to the majority. However, what they take to be the majority is distorted through social networks, says Kristina Lerman of the University of Southern California: "Under certain requirements a minority opinion can appear to be extremely popular."
That depends on the structure of networks. The users don't know all participants, only a part - those people with whom they're connected. Whatever the majority of their friends do, they conclude the majority of participants do. They are then readier to join the perceived majority.
People who are particularly connected to others play an especially important role in the phenomenon of opinion formation. The full paper from Kristina Lerman is here.
Social networks mediated by technology can be disrupted by tech-savvy governments. As more social connections become purely online, will revolution in the future become impossible?
(Score: 0, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 29 2015, @06:32AM
Young people don't have a lifetime of memories of failure. Yet.
Illusion of Majority is total fucking bullshit. They haven't experienced enough discouragement. Yet.
Why do asshole academics write complete shit I wonder. They still think they can impress someone because they haven't pissed off enough of their stupid moron colleagues to be discredited. Yet.
Why do I even bother commenting on this fucking crap I wonder? So I can get modded the fuck down. I'm just not old enough and bitter enough and cynical enough. YET.
Nope. Try again, fuckface. I WILL NOT orient MY SELF to your MORON MAJORITY. Fuck you. All of you.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 29 2015, @06:36AM
Have a Bad Night.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 29 2015, @08:07AM
probably that time of the month
(Score: 3, Insightful) by sjames on Saturday August 29 2015, @05:41PM
I would say in many cases it's more that the older people have fallen for the illusion of minority. Other than Wall Street bankers, does anyopne REALLY trust Wall Street these days? Even people on Wall Street don't trust Wall Street.
Does anyone out there REALLY think "it's only fair that I pay 4 times as much for healthcare as anyone else in the world. Perhaps I dhould be paying more!"?
(Score: 2) by davester666 on Saturday August 29 2015, @10:35PM
Stupid delusional youngsters. Everything would be so much better if they just listened to and did what their elders told them.
(Score: 3, Funny) by patrick on Saturday August 29 2015, @07:23AM
It's always interesting when a study comes out, and you think, "Well duh. Isn't this already common sense? But common sense can be wrong too, so I guess it's good to publish it."
And then this study comes out, and you think, "Well yeah. Doesn't everyone know this alread..." (then the realization of your own "Illusion of Majority" settles in) "... touché, study. Touché."
(Score: 3, Interesting) by RedBear on Saturday August 29 2015, @07:38AM
As I get older, no matter how grounded and rational I try to be in my general approach to life, I notice more and more as time goes by that the only way to produce real change in the world seems to be first having the ability to imagine that such change is possible despite all rational analysis seeming to show that it will be impossible. This is of course a very ancient idea at the heart of the sort of superstition and mysticism that "modern" man and science have been collectively ignoring and dismissing for centuries. Yet, in the final analysis, so frequently change is brought about by people who were at first simply dismissed as insane or irrational.
I have read somewhere in years past that in order to move a herd in a different direction you only need to get 10% of the herd redirected and the rest will follow. This seems to apply to human societies just as easily as to a herd of stampeding cattle. This is one reason why I believe that we are very close to a tipping point with electric cars that will be marked by a massive amount of upheaval in the automotive market. Right now it's still fringe, only about one percent of the market is affected. But it's spreading rapidly. Within 3-6 years we'll be approaching much closer to that 10% of the market either owning one or seeing them quite frequently or knowing someone personally who owns one. And then, very suddenly, the collective consciousness will go from being very negative about EVs to being positive about EVs. Everyone will know someone who loves EVs and swears they will never go back to ICE vehicles for as long as they live. The "Illusion of Majority" will take hold even though it still won't be true in any practical sense, and the era of the fossil-fuel passenger vehicle will come to a relatively abrupt end that will no doubt shock a lot of people with its suddenness. The 2020s are going to be absolutely bonkers, due entirely to the powerful social phenomenon described in this article.
¯\_ʕ◔.◔ʔ_/¯ LOL. I dunno. I'm just a bear.
... Peace out. Got bear stuff to do. 彡ʕ⌐■.■ʔ
(Score: 3, Interesting) by aristarchus on Saturday August 29 2015, @07:42AM
Or Nixon's "Silent Majority". There is a reason they are silent. The reason is, they don't exist. You should actually verify your majority! This takes hard political work, the kind of work that a community activist does, like Obama did. The Right Wing in American has fallen for this illusion massively. They are the 12% that supported Bush at the end of is presidency. And now they get Trump. Remember, most Americans are liberals, and they surround you.
(Score: 2) by dyingtolive on Saturday August 29 2015, @08:09AM
I liked you more before you started crushing on Mighty Buzzard. Be your grip with him valid or otherwise, he's not even involved with this one; you could have let it go just once.
Don't blame me, I voted for moose wang!
(Score: 2) by dyingtolive on Saturday August 29 2015, @08:13AM
:%s/grip/gripe/g
Don't blame me, I voted for moose wang!
(Score: 2) by aristarchus on Saturday August 29 2015, @08:19AM
Yeah, maybe. I tend to think the Buzz can handle whatever I throw his way. But the issue here is "bubbles" and "echo chambers", which relate to what The Mighty Buzzard is always claiming is "censorship". I have not been able to get the Buzz to see that maybe such views are in fact marginal to the point they have no place in public discussion. Hey, would you like to help me inspect my packets?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 29 2015, @07:08PM
Tell me what you think about "the blacks" and "the gays" next.
(Score: 2) by aristarchus on Saturday August 29 2015, @07:30PM
To answer your AC question directly, discussions about "the blacks" and "the gays" have no place either, since they are promulgated by racists and homophobes, again extreme minority positions that some hold only because of past psychological malfunction and the illusion of not being wacko. Did you mis-understand me? No apology necessary, just try to educate yourself a bit more.
(Score: 3, Touché) by VortexCortex on Saturday August 29 2015, @08:42AM
You should actually verify your majority! This takes hard political work, the kind of work that a community activist does, like Obama did.
And also, McCarthy...
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 29 2015, @04:36PM
Remember, most Americans are liberals, and they surround you.
wait wahhht? Did you even read the summary?
Here let me C&P it for you Whatever the majority of their friends do, they conclude the majority of participants do.
Our nation is about 40/40 with a floating 20.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 29 2015, @05:50PM
Citation please, which includes how liberal, conservative, and other terms have been defined.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 30 2015, @12:30AM
40% don't care, 40% Democrat, 20% floating Republicans, no matter how many times we try to flush them.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by MichaelDavidCrawford on Saturday August 29 2015, @07:56AM
especially if those social networks are organized on facebook, twitter and gmail.
For a while now I've been puzzling over teaching a class that I'd call "Information Security for the Occupy Movement" but I wonder whether it would really do any good.
Yes I Have No Bananas. [gofundme.com]
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 29 2015, @02:00PM
They already got owned by the FBI.
(Score: 0, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday August 29 2015, @03:33PM
Well welcome to fucking Soylent News and other echo chamber sites. Throw together enough of your hipsters and self-styled intellectuals who oppose any position or topic that is "mainstream" or "popular" and watch the circle-jerk go. You need a nice selection of epitaphs like "lame-stream media", "joe sixpack", and of course the most popular derisive term, "sheeple." We're cool because we're not majority cool; we are cool for not being cool, and in fact, "cool" is a terrible word because cool people use that word, so we are something like "insightful". Man, it sure is a burden when we're all the smartest fucking people in the room, isn't it?
And if any of the unpopular points of view or ideas take hold? Well, we now oppose them because that would make us a bunch of "joe sixpacks", now wouldn't it?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 30 2015, @12:35AM
You do realise what you trolled was the opposite of the study the rest of us are talking about...
If hipsters etc, thought everyone else was just like them, they would have to move on to post-hipsterism or something else.
(Score: 2) by Hyperturtle on Saturday August 29 2015, @09:38PM
I thought that those that had nothing behind them, and only the future in front of them, had nothing to lose except for the future? If the boat is sinking, then there is no reason not to dive in and try to swim.
And that those with years behind them, with property beneath them and belongings surrounding them, resisted change, because they had so much to lose, and might not have the strength or health at their side to allow them to act upon what they may otherwise be thinking? It is safer to not rock the boat if you cannot swim or are so saddled with baggage that you'll sink if you try.
Often, when someone sees many others doing the impossible, they find it is not so hard themselves--if only they would try.
And that this was the primary difference between young liberals and old conservatives? Between college students burdened with debt with after becoming the master of a skill that has been outsourced, and the rich kids who went to a great school with no questions about cost, and no real concerns about the education?
Those are general statements for sure, but it helps me understand why many "1 percenters" try to keep their 1% and the other 99% struggle so much to get something -- perhaps part of the 1%, perhaps a fair share. Those other people either don't deserve what they have, or they didn't try hard enough to earn what I have -- or what my parents inherited, or whatever stereotypical phrase we can use.
In any event, I think that we see the youth and their revolutions are more easily explained than simply following what everyone else is doing because of a majority opinion. A revolution is started by those that realize that they have the most to lose by staying in the current system. If there is no where for them to go, they fight to remain where they are, and better their standing. They may then go on to defend what they have earned the hard way, when young idealists find their ethos to be oppressive.
Heck that seems to be the way it works between desktop support and the server people at most places I have seen, at least...
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 30 2015, @12:36PM
We can all look back and marvel at how stupid we were when we were young... why is this any different? Why would a sensible Arab look across the sea to Greece in shambles and want to emulate it? Uncoincidentally the Arab Spring that you've championed has produced ISIS. And why are we not surprised when the 'European spring' produced things with names like "The Rein of Terror". btw, Germany under 'the First Reich' (aka catholic monarchy) committed no genocide, Germany under democracy elected Hitler.