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posted by cmn32480 on Friday September 04 2015, @09:13AM   Printer-friendly
from the a-silent-vroom dept.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has announced that his company's "mass market sedan", the Model 3, can be pre-ordered in March 2016 for $35,000. The cars will not be available until 2017 at the earliest. From CNBC:

What's taking so long, you ask? Right now, the batteries that would power the Model 3 would cost about as much as the car is slated to. Tesla is building an enormous lithium-ion battery manufacturing facility in Nevada to make its own batteries for far less money — the "Gigafactory" mentioned in Musk's tweet.

Not much more can be revealed about the Model 3 except that, as Musk mentioned cryptically during a Q&A session on Reddit, "It won't look like other cars." What does that mean, exactly? We'll find out in March.

In the meantime, you can order yourself a new Model X — if you have the cash. The entry level model will cost around $5,000 more than a Model S with the same options, Musk wrote in yet another tweet — though you can easily spend well into the six figure range for the "Signature" high-end series.

Tesla customers will begin receiving their Model X "all-electric SUVs" beginning on Sept. 29.


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  • (Score: 4, Interesting) by RedBear on Friday September 04 2015, @10:44AM

    by RedBear (1734) on Friday September 04 2015, @10:44AM (#232190)

    What's taking so long, you ask? Right now, the batteries that would power the Model 3 would cost about as much as the car is slated to. Tesla is building an enormous lithium-ion battery manufacturing facility in Nevada to make its own batteries for far less money — the "Gigafactory" mentioned in Musk's tweet.

    That seems a bit of an overstatement. The battery pack for the Model S has already gone down from $12,000 to around $8,500, from what I've heard, and that's for an 85kWh battery pack. It's been estimated in a very thorough analysis written by one Randy Carlson on SeekingAlpha.com* that the base Model 3 will get about 220 miles of range from a 44kWh battery pack (smaller, lighter vehicle). Theoretically a pack that size would only cost around $5,000 even if they built it right now. The Gigafactory will supposedly bring battery costs down by about 30%. They're only waiting because they plan to make ten times as many Model 3s as they do S/X, and they need to get the costs down as low as possible.

    It's pretty crazy how half the world and the entire automotive market is waiting breathlessly to see what the Model 3 will even look like. By all indications there are already hundreds of thousands of people who are completely disregarding all other vehicles on the market, both EVs and ICEs, while they wait for the Model 3 to finally become available. It will be interesting to see how well the direct competitors like the upcoming all-electric Chevy Bolt will do in the market. And the true second-generation Nissan Leaf with greater range, that's also supposed to be coming in 2017/2018.

    .
    * I read the entire very long and technically well grounded Randy Carlson article on a single page when someone linked me to it 3 weeks ago, but now it's been split into 10 pages and the site wants you to log in before getting past page 1. WTF? Anyway, if you're really interested here's the link: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3258855-will-teslas-model-3-compete [seekingalpha.com]

    --
    ¯\_ʕ◔.◔ʔ_/¯ LOL. I dunno. I'm just a bear.
    ... Peace out. Got bear stuff to do. 彡ʕ⌐■.■ʔ
    • (Score: 2) by mmcmonster on Friday September 04 2015, @10:56AM

      by mmcmonster (401) on Friday September 04 2015, @10:56AM (#232192)

      That link's up to 17 pages now!

      I love how it has near the beginning: Tesla Motors has a secret plan, first secretly announced back in 2006.

      I'm not sure that the word secret means what he thinks it means.

      2017 seems fairly aggressive, especially since the Model X has been delayed so many times.

      • (Score: 2) by RedBear on Friday September 04 2015, @03:09PM

        by RedBear (1734) on Friday September 04 2015, @03:09PM (#232275)

        Huh. I just tried it on my iPhone and was able to read the whole article in a single page again. Weird. Guess they don't think mobile users will stick around and go through a dozen useless pages.

        Anyone who is interested in this subject should really take a look at that article. The author really pulled out all the stops in analyzing exactly how big the vehicle will be, what battery cells will be used, the exact configuration of the battery packs, what each component will cost, etc., etc. I've gone through it several times and couldn't find a single thing to disagree with. Literally the only thing that remains a mystery at this point is exactly what the outer shell will look like.

        Link again:
        http://seekingalpha.com/article/3258855-will-teslas-model-3-compete [seekingalpha.com]

        --
        ¯\_ʕ◔.◔ʔ_/¯ LOL. I dunno. I'm just a bear.
        ... Peace out. Got bear stuff to do. 彡ʕ⌐■.■ʔ
        • (Score: 2) by Rich on Friday September 04 2015, @03:39PM

          by Rich (945) on Friday September 04 2015, @03:39PM (#232293) Journal

          It has been written that the Model 3 won't look like other cars. That would make me assume they intend to depart from the classic ponton shape (hood, cabin, boot; the single reason the Model S has a hood and a boot hatch is to appeal to conservative car buyers). If we assume they have usability in mind, it would have to be some cab-forward design. Think 1st gen Smart fortwo, 1st gen Renault Twingo, or Starship Enterprise Shuttle. In that case, the driver seat moves a whole lot forward from the indicated position of the 3-series/Model-S shape they use to illustrate. But then the floorpan layout with the battery pack recesses they thought up won't fit anymore. The basic calculations are probably sound, though.

          But, if my guess at the basic layout is right, the question arises what they do with the gained space in the rear. The current F30 3-series is around 4,70m long. A 1st gen smart fortwo comes in at 2,50. That leaves them 2,20m to play with.

          • (Score: 2) by quacking duck on Friday September 04 2015, @04:16PM

            by quacking duck (1395) on Friday September 04 2015, @04:16PM (#232309)

            single reason the Model S has a hood and a boot hatch is to appeal to conservative car buyers

            Well, you *do* need some cargo space, so either the hood or trunk has to remain in some form. And while Musk did say it'd be way different, in the very same sentence he also said "in a way that's really useful and just doesn't feel like a weird-mobile."

            So something like a golf-cart like the Google driverless car prototype is out, and maybe the Smart Car too, because although it's fine as a runabout, it doesn't fit the profile of a "really useful" multipurpose car.

            • (Score: 2) by Rich on Friday September 04 2015, @04:36PM

              by Rich (945) on Friday September 04 2015, @04:36PM (#232321) Journal

              Of course I thought the 2,20 m over the old Smart would be used for useful things. Like a lounge, or a massive cargo area. The Smart was just used to point out how far forward the driver can be moved without feeling cramped. Likewise, I didn't mean that there should be no access to the "trunk". It's just that a "cargo door" is more useful than a little boot flap. Cf. certain Audi S6 sold as estate only.

              Also, in Limousine territory, the Renault Avantime absolutely beats all metrics for usefulness when compared to similar sized cars. It's just that its shape did not appeal to buyers, so it flopped. Tesla might get away with it when they convince the general public that electric cars are not only hip, but have to look like that. Be there or be square. A bit like with acceptance and desirability of their large centre-console screen.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @03:23PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @03:23PM (#232285)

        I love how it has near the beginning: Tesla Motors has a secret plan, first secretly announced back in 2006.

        I'm not sure that the word secret means what he thinks it means.

        I'm not sure your sarcasm detector is operational.

    • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Friday September 04 2015, @11:41AM

      by Phoenix666 (552) on Friday September 04 2015, @11:41AM (#232200) Journal

      By all indications there are already hundreds of thousands of people who are completely disregarding all other vehicles on the market, both EVs and ICEs, while they wait for the Model 3 to finally become available.

      That certainly describes me. I'm ready to trade in my current car the moment the Model 3 becomes available. I have had ample opportunity to drive the BMW i3 EV and Nissan Leaf, and they're fine, but Tesla is the only company that truly gets EVs and how they can employ information technology intelligently, and they're the only company that's fully committed to EVs. Everyone else is hedging their bets with half steps.

      I am curious where you have gotten "hundreds of thousands of people," though. Have you read that somewhere?

      --
      Washington DC delenda est.
      • (Score: 3, Interesting) by bzipitidoo on Friday September 04 2015, @01:22PM

        by bzipitidoo (4388) on Friday September 04 2015, @01:22PM (#232233) Journal

        And me. My plan is to drive my current relatively efficient gas powered car (a Metro, but alas, with an automatic transmission because other family members can't drive a stick shift) until the wheels fall off or a decent electric car hits the market. Batteries are what's holding everything back. An electric motor is 10x better than a combustion engine, the problem has been that a gas tank is 20x better than a battery. Gasoline powered cars are dead the moment batteries become good enough. 15 minutes to recharge enough to go another 200 miles, a lifetime of 1000 recharge cycles, and ability to hold most of a charge for a month still won't be as good as a gas tank, but that may be good enough.

        When that moment comes, we may see the same thing we saw with CRTs and flat screens in 2009, when CRTs vanished from store shelves nearly overnight. That shift may have been made more dramatic by the end of the collusion to hold flat screen prices artificially high. I'd noticed that unlike pretty much all other technology, for years flat screen prices refused to drop much, and there was nothing under $100. I think now it will go more like the shift from vinyl records to audio CDs. Most people will make the switch, but the old tech will hang on thanks to a few who like the old method better despite being objectively inferior. Another thing I'm looking forward to is quieter streets. But some people like noisy exhausts. They're the same people who sneer at the Prius and little cars for being too gay, try to arouse car envy in others. Seems Real Men have to show the world, especially the ladies, that they have power to waste, money to burn, and the car has been one of the top means of doing that.

        • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Friday September 04 2015, @02:54PM

          by Phoenix666 (552) on Friday September 04 2015, @02:54PM (#232265) Journal

          But some people like noisy exhausts. They're the same people who sneer at the Prius and little cars for being too gay, try to arouse car envy in others. Seems Real Men have to show the world, especially the ladies, that they have power to waste, money to burn, and the car has been one of the top means of doing that.

          That is quite true. It seems a sort of simian display: "Watch me beat my chest!"

          Another thing I'm looking forward to is quieter streets.

          Amen! My family and I have had some experience the last six months borrowing my brother-in-law's BMW i3 EV, and we've discovered another really pleasant benefit of driving a quiet car: we can talk in the cabin without shouting.

          --
          Washington DC delenda est.
      • (Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @03:30PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @03:30PM (#232287)

        > Tesla is the only company that truly gets EVs and how they can employ information technology intelligently,

        They also Big Data the ever-living shit out of their owners. Until this year the GPS didn't even work without an operational cellular connection.

        Every move you make, every breath you take, every single day and every word you say, every game you play, every night you stay, Elon will be watching you.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @03:19PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @03:19PM (#232280)

      a single page when someone linked me to it 3 weeks ago, but now it's been split into 10 pages and the site wants you to log in before getting past page 1.

      It is one page for me.
      I am using firefox on linux, but spoofing my useragent to IE 10 on Win7
      I also have noscript blocking all javascript there and requestpolicy blocking all cross-site includes.

      Just a guess - they are using javascript to make artificial 'pages' sized to your browser window and/or screen.

    • (Score: 2, Interesting) by WalksOnDirt on Saturday September 05 2015, @12:54AM

      by WalksOnDirt (5854) on Saturday September 05 2015, @12:54AM (#232474) Journal

      The battery pack for the Model S has already gone down from $12,000 to around $8,500,

      The last news I have heard is that the battery cost is one quarter the selling price. That would put the 85 kWh battery at about $25,000. It might be a little less now, but not less than $20,000. This is why they need a new battery factory.

      It's been estimated in a very thorough analysis written by one Randy Carlson on SeekingAlpha.com...

      He's an insane optimist.

      ...the base Model 3 will get about 220 miles of range from a 44kWh battery pack (smaller, lighter vehicle).

      I expect it to take around 50 kWh to get that range. The weight of the vehicle has little to do with the highway range.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @12:07PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @12:07PM (#232205)

    As long as the thing can do ~300 miles on a charge and is actually at or a hair less[incentives] than 35k....it will be my next car in 2025.

    I just bought a sub 20k hatchback that gets 30/45. I'm going to keep it about 10 years. If there is any hope for humanity it WILL be my last ICE.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @12:33PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @12:33PM (#232213)

      By 2025 it will probably cost the same if not less than an ICE.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @12:48PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @12:48PM (#232216)

      "who cares what it looks like? "

      The vast majority of car buyers do take aesthetics into consideration. If most people really didn't care then the car makers would have fired all their designers decades ago and appearances wouldn't change every model update, aerodynamics were mostly optimized a long time ago.

      • (Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @01:01PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @01:01PM (#232225)

        ...and appearances wouldn't change every model update, aerodynamics were mostly optimized a long time ago.

        Here's one version of what optimized aerodynamics looks like,

        http://aquaflector.com/ev/sylph.jpg [aquaflector.com]

        This is a working car, built by a friend, through the 80s and 90s. This one uses a motorcycle engine and is registered at a motorcycle (three wheeler) as an end run on the regulations for cars. The original concept was electric, until the designer realized just how limiting batteries were 30 years ago. Drag coefficient of 0.1 was measured on a 1/6 size wind tunnel model (with no internal airflow).

      • (Score: 2) by M. Baranczak on Friday September 04 2015, @07:49PM

        by M. Baranczak (1673) on Friday September 04 2015, @07:49PM (#232399)
        Fuck yeah! I know I care. Looking good is definitely better than looking bad.
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @03:35PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @03:35PM (#232290)

      > As long as the thing can do ~300 miles on a charge and is actually at or a hair less[incentives] than 35k..

      The $35K number is without incentives. The federal EV tax credit is based on the number of previous sales by a manufacturer. Tesla expects to exceed the threshold for incentives by the time the model 3 is offered for sale. Same thing happened to the prius with the tax credits for hybrids.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @03:49PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @03:49PM (#232296)

      Can these things operate at -30 degrees? What is their range and charge time like at that temperature? If they can't compete in the worst conditions the continental US can throw at them, there wont be much demand outside of luxury buyer markets and pristine weather locations. The extra weight of the battery pack would be nice for more traction where it is needed but I am also concerned about what happens when these sorts of vehicles meet local wildlife. An ICE can take a hit from a large ungulate and a rodent nest will only result in dead rodents. What happens when an electric vehicle hits a deer or a herd of deer or have an animal crawl up into the motor because it is warm?

      While I am a far better electrician than mechanic, I do not see these as anywhere near viable in my area yet. They are competing with the good weather crowd which includes things like motorcycles, convertibles, mopeds, and bicycles.

      • (Score: 4, Informative) by Phoenix666 on Friday September 04 2015, @04:29PM

        by Phoenix666 (552) on Friday September 04 2015, @04:29PM (#232318) Journal

        Teslas are very popular in Norway [cnn.com]. Are your driving conditions more extreme than Norway's?

        Tesla in snow on 14% grade defeating other cars: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eObSjtU6YXc [youtube.com]

        I am also concerned about what happens when these sorts of vehicles meet local wildlife. An ICE can take a hit from a large ungulate and a rodent nest will only result in dead rodents.

        What does ICE have to do with it? Are you referring to the presence of an engine? Well, what about ICEs whose engine is in the back? Are you mortally afraid of VW Bugs too? Is it the carbon fiber body? Is that why nobody buys Ferraris or Lambos, too, too afraid of deer strikes?

        Here's a pic of a guy with a Tesla who hit a deer [teslamotors.com]. It was 35mph but it looks pretty good to me, certainly no worse than any other kind of car.

        Sorry, but your post reads like silly, shallow FUD. If you're spreading FUD for fun or out of ignorance, you ought to go test-drive a Tesla or a BMW i3. Electric cars are fun to drive, instant linear acceleration that is totally quiet. Braking power is great, too. But if you're spreading FUD because you're being paid to, tell your bosses to try harder to come up with something better.

        --
        Washington DC delenda est.
      • (Score: 3, Insightful) by hemocyanin on Friday September 04 2015, @04:35PM

        by hemocyanin (186) on Friday September 04 2015, @04:35PM (#232320) Journal

        A single car does not have to meet every usage scenario. It probably won't tow a 15,000 pound boat, climb a sand dune, or wade through three feet of mud. But then, those aren't usual scenarios for the vast majority of drivers. Honestly, if it functions fine above 20F, it'll be fine for the 90% or more of the population who don't live someplace where it gets down to -30.

      • (Score: 3, Informative) by bryan on Friday September 04 2015, @04:44PM

        by bryan (29) <bryan@pipedot.org> on Friday September 04 2015, @04:44PM (#232331) Homepage Journal

        Can these things operate at -30 degrees?

        As an owner of a Nissan Leaf for the last two years, I can attest that battery life under extreme conditions (below freezing in the winter and triple digits in the summer) will indeed affect the car's range. However, the difference isn't really that much as the speed and aggressiveness of your driving matters far more than environmental factors. The Leaf does have a small radiator with a coolant loop and will maintain the battery pack at a reasonable temperature. One nice side effect on cold winter days is that the interior cabin gets warm almost immediately by using the same heat pump as the AC (previous models used a resistive heating element) on summer days - no waiting for a combustion engine to warm up first.

        What is their range and charge time like at that temperature?

        Although, again, the temperature isn't very important due to the car automatically maintaining the battery pack at an ideal temperature, the charge time of electric vehicles does need to be accounted for. The uninitiated simply don't realize that it takes 18+ hours to channel 75 miles worth of electricity into your car using a standard 120v outlet. I have both the 120v and the 240v chargers, with the 240v being a bit more than twice as fast, but I can understand how some will not want to rewire their garage and only use the 120v charger.

        I am also concerned about what happens when these sorts of vehicles meet local wildlife.

        Identical to an ICE car.

  • (Score: 0, Offtopic) by MichaelDavidCrawford on Friday September 04 2015, @03:11PM

    by MichaelDavidCrawford (2339) Subscriber Badge <mdcrawford@gmail.com> on Friday September 04 2015, @03:11PM (#232276) Homepage Journal

    I have a really cool idea for a killer app and am now accepting preorders. Checks or money orders drawn on a US bank, or international money orders or bank drafts may be mailed to:

    Michael David Crawford
    650 NW Irving St
    Portland OR 97209
    USA

    --
    Yes I Have No Bananas. [gofundme.com]
  • (Score: 3, Interesting) by halcyon1234 on Friday September 04 2015, @03:53PM

    by halcyon1234 (1082) on Friday September 04 2015, @03:53PM (#232298)
    I call bullshit. Just read the summary. "Tesla is building an enormous lithium-ion battery manufacturing facility in Nevada". A company doing domestic manufacturing? IMPOSSIBLE, I've been told on good authority outsourcing has stolen all jobs. And manufacturing being done without the use of slave labor? IMPOSSIBLE, I've been told that domestic workers, especially (gasp) unionized ones, have literally destroyed the possibility of any poor company making ANY profit. There's no way this article is real.
    --
    Original Submission [thedailywtf.com]
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @04:20PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @04:20PM (#232311)

      > I've been told that domestic workers, especially (gasp) unionized ones, have literally destroyed the possibility of any poor company making ANY profit.

      It will be a factory of robots. [cleantechnica.com]

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @04:41PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 04 2015, @04:41PM (#232327)

      Rising fuel prices can make local manufacturing competitive.

    • (Score: 2) by etherscythe on Friday September 04 2015, @05:29PM

      by etherscythe (937) on Friday September 04 2015, @05:29PM (#232344) Journal

      Elon Musk is a big fan of vertical integration. SpaceX and Tesla are both doing as much as possible in-house. It's the old saying "If you want something done right, do it yourself," writ large. Apparently, it works quite well to get companies not directly responsible for the end product out of the chain of waste and inefficiency.

      Too many corner-cutting MBA's killing long-term value at the intermediate supply companies? We all know they're out there - and those salaries have to come from somewhere.

      --
      "Fake News: anything reported outside of my own personally chosen echo chamber"
  • (Score: 2) by Techwolf on Friday September 04 2015, @04:16PM

    by Techwolf (87) on Friday September 04 2015, @04:16PM (#232308)

    Why lithopoly instead of lithoiron that is less toxic and has nearly same power due to nearly flat discharge curve and last 10 times longer?

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 05 2015, @02:14AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 05 2015, @02:14AM (#232488)
      • These are regular can-type cylindrical cells, not polymer pouch cells. So "lithopoly" makes even less sense than it otherwise would have.
      • Power isn't greatly relevant for automotive applications, since a big enough battery for 100s of miles range means lots of power even at pretty gentle discharge rates. But I suspect you meant "energy" -- anyway, I'll assume so.

      As to why they are Li-cobalt type (probably LiNiCoMn or some such, these days) instead of Li-iron type -- I don't think "nearly same" energy is close enough at this point, for the range and price goals they have set. 20% less energy/$ means they need 25% more expensive battery to meet the goals, and I don't see the budget for that. Ten years from now, I bet the market will be big enough to sell both types (marketing will decide whether it's LiFePO4 for normal people, LiCoO2 for the range-anxious people who need/want an extra 20% or so, or LiCoO2 for normal people, LiFePO4 for those who plan to keep their cars >5 years instead of trading them in), but at this point I understand if they calculate that they need that 20% margin on range (and/or cost, obviously it's a tradeoff) to bust open the market.