It's an ancient article, but still relevant to, and perhaps of interest for, Soylentils stuck in holiday traffic...
When driving on the motorway, have you ever wondered about (and cursed) the fact that cars in the other lane seem to be getting ahead faster than you? You might be inclined to account for this by invoking Murphy's Law ("If anything can go wrong, it will", discovered by Edward A. Murphy, Jr, in 1949). However, a recent paper in Nature by Redelmeier and Tibshirani seeks a deeper explanation.
According to the authors, drivers suffer from systematic illusions causing them to mistakenly think they would have been better off in the next lane. In this Plus article, we show that their argument fails to take into account an important observation selection effect - namely that cars in the next lane actually do go faster!
In their paper, Redelmeier and Tibshirani present some evidence that drivers on Canadian roadways think that the next lane is typically faster. (You can read their paper for more about this). They seek to explain the drivers' perceptions by appealing to a variety of psychological factors. For example:
- "A driver is more likely to glance at the next lane for comparison when he is relatively idle while moving slowly";
- "Differential surveillance can occur because drivers look forwards rather than backwards, so vehicles that are overtaken become invisible very quickly, whereas vehicles that overtake the index driver remain conspicuous for much longer"; and
- "Human psychology may make being overtaken (losing) seem more salient than the corresponding gains."
In short, cars in the other lane "really do go faster", because that's usually the lane with fewer cars in it, so any car picked at random is more likely to be found in the slow lane.
[Updated to change title and add explanatory summary. -Ed.]
(Score: 2) by Snow on Thursday November 26 2015, @05:56PM
She is getting older and kind of likes to drive in multiple lanes at the same time. I always thought she was slow, but maybe she knows what she is doing after all...
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday November 26 2015, @06:03PM
The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) assigns the numbers from left to right. The far left passing lane is the number 1 lane. The number of the slow lane (closest to freeway onramps/offramps) depends on the total number of lanes, and could be anywhere from 2 to 6.
In simple English... You slowpokes stay in the far right lanes, use the left lanes for passing slow traffic. I'm sick of idiots driving 55mph in a 65mph zone in the left lane while talking/texting on your phone.
(Score: 3, Informative) by bootsy on Thursday November 26 2015, @06:03PM
This has been studied before.
If you are in a lane or queue there are 2 other lanes/queues on either side. On the outside or inside of a 3 lane motorway there are still 2 other lanes you can easily see. You have a 1 in 3 chance of being in the fastest and there is a 2/3 chance one of the others will be faster. You tend to notice the faster one and not the slower one so 2/3rds of the time it does feel as if you are not as fast.
(Score: 2) by frojack on Thursday November 26 2015, @08:06PM
TFS points out that this is an ancient article, so yes, it has been studied before, and TFA is probably the same one you read before.
But I will point out that lane speed is not random, nor is lane choice. So you can't offer up your 1/3-2/3 rule based on the laws of chance.
The Leftmost lanes (rightmost in Great Britain) are designated by law to be the faster lanes. All traffic in the lanes to your right (left in GB) should be going slower.
You should be in the lane most appropriate to your intended speed, regardless of the actual speed limit or your adherence to that limit. In the US, you will get a ticket for driving too slowly in the high speed lanes EVEN if you are traveling at the speed limit. The ticket will be for improper lane travel.
Side factoid: Interesting map of countries [worldstandards.eu] holding our for left-lane preference.
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 2) by bootsy on Friday November 27 2015, @09:57AM
Hi Frojack,
what you say is true about GB motorway rules as you are only meant to entry a right lane to overtake.
In pratice on the M4 into London during the morning rush hour though all three lanes are crawling and the fastest lane seems random. In fact it isn't random as before and after a junction the left hand lane is first the fastest as traffic pulls of and then the slowest and traffic joins.
(Score: 4, Interesting) by Snotnose on Thursday November 26 2015, @06:14PM
In my early 20s a woman I worked with got off the same time I did, and drove a bit further on the freeway than I did. I used to be a lane changing idiot, taking anything that might gain me an inch. One day I noticed I was maybe 1 car length ahead of Reylene after 20 miles of this. After that I paid attention and realized that, for all my 'smart' lane changes, we always went 20 miles within 1-2 car lengths.
Now I park it in the #1 lane and stay put until it's time to get off.
When the dust settled America realized it was saved by a porn star.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by SubiculumHammer on Thursday November 26 2015, @06:23PM
90% of the time, this is true...and we'd all be safer if we'd collectively realize it.
..and if you focus on the other 10% of the time, you'll end up a delusion-ally racist, sexist, and enraged asshole
...who is wrong 90% of the time.
(Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday November 26 2015, @07:33PM
You were an asshole before, and you are an asshole now. Get off the passing lane, jackass.
(Score: 2) by Snotnose on Thursday November 26 2015, @07:51PM
I pay attention. If you're coming up behind me I move over. If there's little traffic I move to the #2 lane. But never confuse me with one of those lane hogging assholes who will neither speed up nor move over.
When the dust settled America realized it was saved by a porn star.
(Score: 2) by art guerrilla on Friday November 27 2015, @01:29AM
i can respect that...
(Score: 2) by Reziac on Friday November 27 2015, @04:01AM
I used to regularly make a trip from just north of Los Angeles to central Orange County, mostly via I-5. I discovered that I could do the entire 70 mile trip with only one lane change after my originating lane went away -- even tho my route went through several major freeway interchanges including downtown L.A. This was usually also the most efficient lane in terms of traffic flow.
And there is no Alkibiades to come back and save us from ourselves.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by wonkey_monkey on Thursday November 26 2015, @06:21PM
Cars in the Next Lane Really Do Go Faster
Could you not post a headline like that if you're not going to at least get somewhere remotely near explaining it in the summary?
The conclusion of the article - after many, many more paragraphs than the few quoted as the summary - is that cars in the other lane "really do go faster", because that's usually the lane with less cars in it, so any car picked at random is more likely to be found in the slow lane.
systemd is Roko's Basilisk
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday November 26 2015, @07:35PM
phoenix barely reads, if at all, the stuff she sends in.
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Friday November 27 2015, @02:40PM
Certainly there's no limit to the amount of effort I and other submitters are willing to do for such accolades as yours. We anticipate the fine submissions an AC such as you can craft with all her considerable skill.
Thanks to wonkey_monkey for supplementing the summary...
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 2) by martyb on Thursday November 26 2015, @07:51PM
Yes, the headline troubled me a bit, too, but it was used in the linked story and so I just ran with it. In reading your comment and the linked paper, I got a different perspective and replaced the original headline with a revised one based on the paper's title. Your conclusion nicely summarized the story, and I hope you don't mind that I updated the story with it.
Thanks for holding us to a high standard!
Wit is intellect, dancing.
(Score: 2) by wonkey_monkey on Thursday November 26 2015, @10:15PM
I hope you don't mind that I updated the story with it.
Not at all.
Thanks for holding us to a high standard!
Hey, thanks for being willing to be held to one.
For what it's worth, though, I think the headline was okay as was, but the summary just didn't include any of the parts from the article that covered it. The paper referred to by the summary doesn't, either; it's only in the article, which is commenting on the paper. All a bit convoluted, really.
systemd is Roko's Basilisk
(Score: 2) by martyb on Thursday November 26 2015, @11:58PM
Bah! I had an updated summary edited in, but apparently failed to save it correctly. Should be fixed, now. Tried to give you attribution, but there's no standard way of doing that after the fact. 50/50 if it will take. Cross your fingers, but stay in your lane! =)
Wit is intellect, dancing.
(Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday November 26 2015, @08:14PM
we need java on multicore (x86 or arm is fine, 32/64 bit fine too). it will have automated java multicore car.
(Score: 2) by Tork on Thursday November 26 2015, @09:16PM
🏳️🌈 Proud Ally 🏳️🌈
(Score: 2) by rob_on_earth on Thursday November 26 2015, @08:30PM
I rememeber a TV documentary on Murphey's law and talking about how people percieve the M25 (a major motorway/highway in the UK) as ALWAYS slow.
But statistically all these people had had mostly GOOD experiences on the M25 but their brains only recorded the unpleasant bits and thus that was what they remembered as a whole.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by TheLink on Friday November 27 2015, @04:22AM
Say there are two groups of drivers, B and C. B is a small group, C is a very huge group. B travels on the M25 at most times, C mostly only travels on the M25 at peak hours, because like duh.
B has a mostly good experience on the M25 (except during peak hours).
C has mostly bad experiences on the M25 because of all the C and B drivers clogging it up and making it slow.
There are a lot more people in C than B. Thus more people statistically have poor experiences on the M25 and there's nothing wrong with their brains.
(Score: 2) by inertnet on Thursday November 26 2015, @10:54PM
Sometimes you go faster, sometimes the other lane(s) go faster. All have the harmonica effect, but not at the same time. In the end there's not much difference, but you remember the times that the others went faster.
Also Murphy didn't discover Murphy's law, that was Ugh in prehistoric times when his new invention "the wheel" accidentally rolled down a mountain.
(Score: 2) by jdavidb on Friday November 27 2015, @01:39AM
ⓋⒶ☮✝🕊 Secession is the right of all sentient beings
(Score: 2) by goodie on Friday November 27 2015, @02:45PM
Love that scene where the guy changes lanes every minute just to get stalled again. I used to do that too, or look for alternate routes etc. Now I just wait, especially after I looked at a couple of vehicles (e.g., trucks or bright colored vehicles) and compared our paces. My conclusion was that there was at most a few seconds earned from being a dick on the road. So no thanks, I'll save my nerves ;).