The Harvard Public Health Review has posted a "Special Commentary on the Zika Virus and Public Health Concerns." Amir Attaran, DPhil, LLB, MS. Faculty of Medicine and Faculty of Law, University of Ottawa has submitted a thought-provoking article, Off the Podium: Why Public Health Concerns for Global Spread of Zika Virus Means That Rio de Janeiro's 2016 Olympic Games Must Not Proceed.
Brazil's Zika problem is inconveniently not ending. The outbreak that began in the country's northeast has reached Rio de Janeiro, where it is flourishing. Clinical studies are also mounting that Zika infection is associated not just with pediatric microcephaly and brain damage, but also adult conditions such as Guillain-Barré syndrome and acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, which are debilitating and sometimes fatal.
Simply put, Zika infection is more dangerous, and Brazil's outbreak more extensive, than scientists reckoned a short time ago. Which leads to a bitter truth: the 2016 Olympic and Paralympic Games must be postponed, moved, or both, as a precautionary concession. [emphasis added] There are five reasons.
[Continues...]
First, Rio de Janeiro is more affected by Zika than anyone expected, rendering earlier assumptions of safety obsolete.
[...] Second, although Zika virus was discovered nearly seventy years ago, the viral strain that recently entered Brazil is clearly new, different, and vastly more dangerous than "old" Zika.
[...] Third, while Brazil's Zika inevitably will spread globally — given enough time, viruses always do — it helps nobody to speed that up.
[...] Fourth, when (not if) the Games speed up Zika's spread, the already-urgent job of inventing new technologies to stop it becomes harder.
[...] Fifth, proceeding with the Games violates what the Olympics stand for. The International Olympic Committee writes that "Olympism seeks to create ... social responsibility and respect for universal fundamental ethical principles".
[...] Historically, the 1976 Winter Olympics were moved, and the 1994 Winter Olympics broke with the regular schedule. London, Beijing, Athens and Sydney still possess useable Olympic facilities to take over from Rio. Since the IOC decided in 2014 that the Olympics could be shared between countries, sporting events could even be parceled out between them, turning Zika's negative into an unprecedented positive: the first transcontinental, truly Global Olympics.
The article is backed by 20 footnotes and goes into considerable detail to back up these five points.
One point I did not see made was the fact that Olympic athletes, many of whom have spent their entire lives training for what may well be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, are faced with the prospect of risking their life — and that of their friends and family — in order to participate. What would YOU choose?
Ignoring the threat does not make it go away. Thoughtful, rational discussion of the risks and mitigations are necessary. If changes are to be made, how will they proceed? Should nations act unilaterally and withdraw unless one or more other venues are made available? Should, say, Sydney volunteer to host some (enumerated subset of) the games for those who are concerned about the Zika virus? Maybe postpone the summer Olympics for a year or two? What, practically, can and should be done?
Related Stories
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is monitoring 157 pregnant women in the United States who may be infected with the Zika virus. It is also monitoring 122 such pregnant women in Puerto Rico. The new federal guidelines and counts include women who may not show symptoms of the virus. For example, of the 157 women in the U.S. and D.C., 88% reported rash, 49% arthralgia, 51% fever, and just 23% reported conjunctivitis. Zika virus nucleic acid detection was only reported in 25%.
From the report:
Case reports indicate that fetuses and infants of pregnant women with asymptomatic Zika virus infection might be at risk for microcephaly and other severe brain defects. Following pregnant women with laboratory evidence of possible Zika virus infection in the surveillance system, regardless of symptoms, allows better characterization of the full impact and consequences of infection to the mother and her offspring, and might allow for better stratification of risk for adverse congenital outcomes.
[...] The findings in this report are subject to at least three limitations. First, data provided to the jurisdictions and CDC regarding symptoms and symptom onset might not be accurate or complete because of variability in recall by patients or data available to jurisdictions. Second, only pregnant women who are tested for Zika virus infection are included, thereby potentially underestimating the prevalence of infection and outcomes among all pregnant women. Finally, all states are not included in the [U.S. Zika Pregnancy Registry (USZPR)], possibly affecting the representativeness of these data with regard to all pregnant women identified with a possible Zika virus infection.
The Miami Herald notes that 36 of the 157 are in Florida, quadruple the number under the old guidelines.
Future reports will include details about the outcomes of these pregnancies. The CDC will also begin posting weekly updates on the number of Zika-related pregnancy cases it is monitoring.
Previous coverage:
Why Concerns for Global Spread of Zika Means Rio de Janeiro’s 2016 Olympics Must Not Proceed
New study details from http://www.reuters.com/article/us-olympics-rio-superbacteria-exclusive-idUSKCN0YW2E8 "Exclusive: Studies find 'super bacteria' in Rio's Olympic venues, top beaches":
"Scientists have found dangerous drug-resistant "super bacteria" off beaches in Rio de Janeiro that will host Olympic swimming events and in a lagoon where rowing and canoe athletes will compete when the Games start on Aug. 5.
The findings from two unpublished academic studies seen by Reuters concern Rio's most popular spots for tourists and greatly increase the areas known to be infected by the microbes normally found only in hospitals."
[...] The super bacteria can cause hard-to-treat urinary, gastrointestinal, pulmonary and bloodstream infections, along with meningitis. The CDC says studies show that these bacteria contribute to death in up to half of patients infected.
[...] Waste from countless hospitals, in addition to hundreds of thousands of households, pours into storm drains, rivers and streams crisscrossing Rio, allowing the super bacteria to spread outside the city's hospitals in recent years.
[...] These bacteria are opportunistic microbes that can enter the body, lie dormant, then attack at a later date when a healthy person may fall ill for another reason.
[...] Super bacteria infect not only humans but also otherwise-harmless bacteria present in the waters, turning them into antibiotic-resistant germs.
The Zika thing seems bad, but this sounds imminently deadly to athletes and provides the potential for the Olympics to rapidly spread these infectious super-bugs around the world.
I don't like being 'alarmist', but this appears to be a likely, credible threat to world health. How logical is it to be concerned about this? Are Soylents aware of any good, practical way for participants and attendees to the Olympics in Brazil to reduce the risk of exposure and infection and then spreading this? Are you planning on attending?
Other Soylent discussion on Zika / Olympics:
- Why Concerns for Global Spread of Zika Means Rio de Janeiro's 2016 Olympics Must Not Proceed"
- Maybe "It's Not the Zika Virus".
(Score: 5, Insightful) by edIII on Thursday May 12 2016, @01:54AM
The games must, and will, proceed because of the billions of dollars to be made. Those elites have already set everything up, bribed the appropriate people, and prepared the appropriate business vehicles to receive their billions. Lives, health, and safety of the people are secondary to those profits, or S.O.P.
Until it literally starts killing the elites in Brazil, Zika is just a virus of the poor people and can be suffered in the face of billions in profit. The games will go on.....
Technically, lunchtime is at any moment. It's just a wave function.
(Score: 4, Interesting) by devlux on Thursday May 12 2016, @02:04AM
I dunno about Brazil, but here in Mexico it's starting to get some notice and traction even at "official" levels.
I just had a discussion today about using Gringer's field deployable genome sequencing thing
https://www.nanoporetech.com/ [nanoporetech.com]
to try and map the spread before it gets out of hand.
No one I know has Zika, but the hospitals are starting to report some cases and DEET https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DEET [wikipedia.org] is flying off the shelves right now.
As an aside, someone really should get ginger's story submission approved, it's been sitting in queue for some time now.
https://soylentnews.org/submit.pl?op=viewsub&subid=13114¬e=&title=Update%3A+Sequencing+that+Stimulates+the+Sensors [soylentnews.org]
Any reason why it's still sitting there a month and a half later?
(Score: 2) by frojack on Thursday May 12 2016, @06:20AM
How can you map the spread before it gets out of hand? If its spreading, its already out of hand.
You mention Deet. I wonder if there was a public information push to use bug repellent, similar to the public push to use sun screen (or combine the products) if that would be sufficient to to protect the Olympics and just every day people out and about.
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 3, Touché) by maxwell demon on Thursday May 12 2016, @02:11PM
Well, unless it's an intentional, controlled spread. </conspiracytheory>
The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday May 12 2016, @02:15PM
I figured gringer's story was sitting until it was needed. It didn't seem to be time-sensitive so it is a good backup when the submission list runs dry.
(Score: 2) by takyon on Friday May 13 2016, @08:51PM
One of the editors disappeared.
The story will be out on Monday, with Q&A answers and maybe extra material.
[SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Thursday May 12 2016, @03:11AM
Zika virus risk minimal for Australian Olympic team, medical director says [abc.net.au]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0
(Score: 3, Insightful) by devlux on Thursday May 12 2016, @03:15AM
Except this strain is sexually transmitted as well. So that poses a real health problem mosquito or no.
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Thursday May 12 2016, @03:27AM
I see you grossly underestimate the sexual abstinence power of Australian athletes.
(grin)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0
(Score: 2) by hendrikboom on Thursday May 12 2016, @06:18PM
The Australian spectators are not athletes, and may not have those enhanced abstinence powers..
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday May 12 2016, @05:04AM
Except this strain is sexually transmitted as well. So that poses a real health problem mosquito or no.
Well then, Mate, just no more sex with mosquitoes, eh? G'day!
(Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Thursday May 12 2016, @03:26AM
You're not wrong at all, the Olympics are all about the money.
Occasionally I've seen small pieces about how filthy the water is in Rio, but nothing serious, just a setup to tell everyone how the Rio organizing commitee is going to clean everything up.
I come from a country which does well in the outdoor water sports, sailing, rowing, canoeing. Some of these people are multiple World and Olympic champions, and are big stars.
When someone contracts a nasty infection and gets very sick or dies, I wonder what the supine media will say then?
They're the ones who keep the money flowing into the IOC, they need to take some responsibility.
(Score: 2) by Whoever on Thursday May 12 2016, @04:43AM
UK, NZ or AUS?
Some of the sailors have already said that the likely winner will be the person who doesn't get something hooked on their foils.
I feel sorry for the open water swimmers: they are likely to be swimming through untreated sewage.
(Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Thursday May 12 2016, @11:07PM
I'm from NZ. Without checking I think we have 11 boats qualified in rowing, with about 3 gold medals pretty much already won.
I've read the same about the sailing, it will be a lottery.
As far as any of the athletes go, I've got no sympathy for them at all. They've known the water in Rio was going to be raw sewerage for more than a year now and have just shrugged and accepted it as if they've got no power.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday May 15 2016, @05:47PM
What choice do they have? They can opt out, but the games will still go ahead, and they might not get another chance at an Olympic medal, given the years of training they have put in, that is a huge sacrifice for them to make. A few athletes refusing to compete won't change anything. To get something done would require a number of high-profile countries pulling out completely.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday May 12 2016, @03:28AM
Just make sure that nasty drawings are put up and some medieval people in black ghost dresses will do the job to keep people out .. :p
(Score: 2) by frojack on Thursday May 12 2016, @03:56AM
The games must, and will, proceed because of the billions of dollars to be made.
Most of that money has already been spent building the venues. Much beyond that, the games lose money every year they are held.
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 2) by bob_super on Thursday May 12 2016, @04:59PM
> Much beyond that, the games lose money every year they are held.
The cities lose money
> Most of that money has already been spent building the venues.
Someone is underestimating the advertising dollars. Brazil is likely contractually obligated to reimburse the sponsors and TV stations, plus fines, if the Games are cancelled.
Some highly-neutral judge in NY will enforce the will of the corporations and make sure that "pandemic" is not an acceptable excuse to break the contract without paying the IOC and sponsors.
(Score: 2) by frojack on Thursday May 12 2016, @08:32PM
How much of these alleged obligations are actually owed by Brazil and how much are owed by Coke and T-Mobile and the networks that paid big time for broadcast rights? And who gets the money from advertisers? TV networks or the Olympic committee?
I don't think it matters, because I've never seen a big contract without Force majeure clauses.
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday May 12 2016, @02:44AM
Brazil has other, much bigger problems than zikka and olympics.
(Score: 4, Touché) by martyb on Thursday May 12 2016, @02:57AM
It is true that Brazil has much bigger problems than Zika and the Olympics, but because of Zika and the Olympics, it may mean a much bigger problem for the rest of the world.
Wit is intellect, dancing.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday May 12 2016, @03:03AM
Hm. Good point. Let's just quarantine Brazil. Oh shit, too late, now, eh.
(Score: 2) by melikamp on Thursday May 12 2016, @03:37AM
A capital idea. Fast forward a few years: https://serenitythinker.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/brazil.jpg [wordpress.com]
(Score: 2) by massa on Thursday May 12 2016, @11:00AM
Isn't that the High Sparrow? ;)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday May 12 2016, @02:58AM
It needs to be redone to be agile, with multiple venues spread out across a continent at least, with fallback options for each venue.
Let's get rid of g*ddamn opening and closing ceremonies and Olympic villages, and the need to control huge crowds from across the world descending on one city. It's the human equivalent of Fourth of July fireworks. Impressive, yes. Worth the price, no.
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Thursday May 12 2016, @03:25AM
On the same line of thinking, just get rid of the Olympics all together.
Because do they worth the price?
One would get much more economic benefit if one spends the same amount of money in infrastructure but refrain from building new stadiums (they cost a lot and their positive economic impact is absolutely minimal at best - most of them become an ongoing maintenance cost).
(mmmm... I can't even decide if the above should be tagged sarcasm or I'm making actually a serious argument... Wait, I know what I'll do, Ill just...
grin)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0
(Score: 3, Informative) by maxwell demon on Thursday May 12 2016, @02:13PM
But those are the only interesting parts of the Olympics!
The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
(Score: 2) by tizan on Thursday May 12 2016, @03:26AM
Forget the olympics....people are going in and out daily....shall we isolate Brazil ? Don't forget the Zika epidemic of Brazil is traced back to one person bringing it in.
Just like with Ebola..it will get out ...educate people and have ways to handle it and develop a vaccine quickly...In the meantime help Brazil clean up and control mosquitoes.
(Score: 2) by frojack on Thursday May 12 2016, @04:15AM
But UNLIKE ebola, Zika doesn't kill a huge percentage of the people who catch it.
Authorities could just tell people to avoid sex, and shift the blame to them if they don't. (Have we seen this movie before)?
A crash program to find a vaccine, like the multiple efforts for Ebola, would, under those circumstances probably end up getting put off, potentially for many budget cycles.
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 2) by patella.whack on Thursday May 12 2016, @07:18AM
It's a good point re: mortality, and that's an interesting suggestion about possible spin.
I wonder how effective that spin might be in the current political climate there, where corruption is front-and-center. But no matter, the Games will most certainly go on.
Someone above pointed out that the Games are mostly a financial loss to the host country. On the other hand they serve as a unifying morale booster for that country too. (see China). I'm not so sure that is going to occur in Brazil to the extent that their government desires because of the level of unrest.
(Score: 2) by zocalo on Thursday May 12 2016, @10:47AM
That's another potential risk for foreign athletes and spectators considering or committed to going to the games. There have already been clashes over the impeachment (which has also been described as a defacto coup d'etat) of President Rouseff with the recent announcement that she will face a trial, despite the country's AG ruling there was no grounds for it, and be replaced by the countries VP, at least as an interim measure, then things could rapidly get out of hand. Given that the trial is expected to last 180 days and includes the entire period the games are scheduled for, civil unrest or worse in the country during the games doesn't seem all that unlikely. I'd expect tight security regardless, which will probably help keep such things far away from the actual games, but given visitors will almost certainly want to visit areas away from the stadia it's hard to imagine that no one is going to get caught up in things by virtue of just being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
UNIX? They're not even circumcised! Savages!
(Score: 2) by patella.whack on Thursday May 12 2016, @11:25AM
thanks for the addt'l detail.
Re: wrong place wrong time, I wonder what kind of leakage from favelas (which seem to boiling over more than previously) will protrude upon what is essentially a different state with a different government: ie. metro Rio & the stadia.
I'm not sure foreigners are in danger of anything, really, including Zika, if they stick to the area that the gov't is doing its best to keep 'clean.' Of course the pick-pocket MO will still be in full effect.
(Score: 2) by zocalo on Thursday May 12 2016, @11:52AM
UNIX? They're not even circumcised! Savages!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday May 12 2016, @06:52AM
educate people
OK, tizan, here we go: Viruses cull the weak from the herd and accelerate evolution, making a better species. Trying to prevent them outright is weakening the gene pool. We shouldn't stop vaccinating nor go overboard with it, not until we have human genetic engineering running smoothing at Service Pack 2. We risk extinction from a greater threat by not promoting the concentration of more resistant and resilient people.
(Score: 2) by GreatAuntAnesthesia on Thursday May 12 2016, @11:32AM
not sure if serious, but if you are you greatly misunderstand evolution.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by takyon on Thursday May 12 2016, @03:47AM
Tokyo Olympics: €1.3m payment to secret account raises questions over 2020 Games [theguardian.com]
[SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
(Score: 5, Insightful) by esperto123 on Thursday May 12 2016, @11:22AM
Just commented this story on the green site.
I live in Rio and the Olympic games should not have been held here, for several reasons, but Zika is not one of them.
The guy is not a medical doctor, he actually has a doctorate in law, and although he writes for the health review, he doesn't have a medical research background.
Zika has already spread pretty much to everywhere that has the mosquito (aedes aegypt and others) and the olympics will not cause much of an impact, specially because it will happen in the winter, when the mosquito borne diseases almost disappear, because the mosquito population drops sharply due to the smaller amount of rain. And by the way, we had in the last couple of years a very dry summer, which is uncommon and actually caused a lower infection rate, health authorities were apprehensive that we would have chaos because of chikungunya and Dengue type 4, which are also new to the region and have much more serious symptoms, and had an impact much smaller than predicted.
Further more, Zika is a very mild infection for the great majority of people infected, with most (~80%) not even being symptomatic, and did not grabbed the headlines until Brazilian health and safety authorities connected the increase of microcephaly cases to Zika infections, and the press run with it as it was a zombie apocalypse (not to say that it can't have severe consequences, microcephaly is horrible, but the amount of cases was took out of proportions).
The only risk for the guests is if they are women, pregnant or planning to get pregnant at the times of the games, or if they fuck everything that moves (in that case, call me ^-^) and the risk of getting pregnant can be easily avoided by either not coming (as suggested) or by simply using anti-conceptional methods.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday May 12 2016, @03:11PM
But wait... what about pig flu, bird flu, SARS?? The world almost ended remember? Everything must be stopped NAOW.
(Score: 2) by bob_super on Thursday May 12 2016, @05:09PM
I previously suggested giving Zika to middle-schoolers to solve the problem. It's mostly benign if you're not pregnant, which is why it's typically not that big of a deal: kids get it when they are young.
The problem is for young adults visiting areas where it's endemic, or for it expanding to new places. It doesn't sound like a vaccine would be tremendously hard to design, and most Olympic athletes are in their young prime and typically not about to have babies right after the games.
(Score: 2) by GreatAuntAnesthesia on Thursday May 12 2016, @12:00PM
If the games go ahead regardless ( and regardless of whether or not that's wise) they should use this as a test bed for new mosquito killing technologies. Much could be learned and maybe lives could be saved as well.
(Score: 2) by Alfred on Thursday May 12 2016, @01:32PM
(Score: 2) by cafebabe on Thursday May 12 2016, @04:11PM
Depending on the native country and the sport, I'd compete. The risk versus reward is quite small if you already come from a country which could be equally affected by the Zika virus. It would suck to not compete and get the Zika virus anyhow. Most of the risk is externalized. So, if you're knowingly a potential vector in the spread of the Zika virus, the downside is mostly endured by others. Depending on the sport, I'd have very pressing financial considerations. The really expensive sports, like horse-riding, tend to attract people who are self-financed. Oddly, runners, swimmers and weight-lifters tend to be much more dependant on sponsorship. And stuff like gymnastics has heavy state sponsorship.
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