from the Detroit-on-another-deathwatch-and-still-doesn't-know-it dept.
The BBC and many other sources report:
The US car industry will be wrecked if President Trump relaxes emissions standards, California's governor says.
Jerry Brown said China would dominate car manufacture because it was heavily promoting the electric vehicles that would dominate the future.
He said huge investment was needed on electric vehicles, along with federal rules to encourage their purchase.
He said President Trump and US car-makers were "half asleep" and hadn't understood the scale of the challenge.
He told BBC Radio 4's Costing the Earth: "There will be a serious threat to the US auto industry.
Unlike many in Silicon Valley, Gov. Brown seems to want the USA car industry to survive this Chinese nationally supported onslaught.
While not specifically mentioned in the article, China is working on cars at all price points, not just early adopters that can afford a Tesla or other luxury car. The Chinese stuff may be junk now (think about the batteries in Chinese "hoverboards") but it won't be for long, they learn fast. Here's a little minivan that's headed to production, https://carnewschina.com/2017/09/28/new-photos-sinogold-gm3-electric-mpv-china/
(Score: 0, Disagree) by MichaelDavidCrawford on Tuesday November 14 2017, @12:02AM (6 children)
ALL OF YOU MUST BOW DOWN BEFORE THE GREATNESS THAT IS ME
Yes I Have No Bananas. [gofundme.com]
(Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @12:04AM (3 children)
Nah.
(Score: 0, Offtopic) by MichaelDavidCrawford on Tuesday November 14 2017, @12:50AM (2 children)
I got it from some guy at the brain talk bipolar forum. He gets a little loopy sometimes too.
Yes I Have No Bananas. [gofundme.com]
(Score: 1, Offtopic) by frojack on Tuesday November 14 2017, @01:56AM (1 child)
Kinda like Jerry Brown.
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 1, Offtopic) by MichaelDavidCrawford on Tuesday November 14 2017, @02:14AM
I worked on his Santa Cruz County primary campaign in 1992. He won Santa Cruz but lost the state.
That man is a deep political thinker but he has the attention span of a fruit fly.
Yes I Have No Bananas. [gofundme.com]
(Score: 2) by DannyB on Tuesday November 14 2017, @03:14PM
You're on the wrong app Mr. Trump. This is not Twitter.
People today are educated enough to repeat what they are taught but not to question what they are taught.
(Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Tuesday November 14 2017, @07:06PM
Dude, we already have a Trump impersonator here....
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @12:13AM (4 children)
So, what's he playing at? Why does he think the markets need a Dear Leader to show them the way?
(Score: 5, Insightful) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday November 14 2017, @02:44AM (1 child)
Maybe because the markets have several dear leaders dragging people down the road of short term profits and medium to long term deferred consequences and externalized costs?
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @05:57AM
Head, I win. Tail, I don't give a fuck because I'd be long dead by then. See ya, suckas.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @11:01AM
Maybe Dear Leader should have promised to bring the coal industry back. I hear that's a very popular political decision amongst some voters.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Spamalope on Tuesday November 14 2017, @01:00PM
Politically connected people invested heavily in the electric car industry. They need taxpayers to subsidize the startups they backed so they can maximize profits. It's for the environment/children/your dog spot.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by PartTimeZombie on Tuesday November 14 2017, @12:15AM (16 children)
If the US car makers are fat and lazy and don't compete they will be out-competed by the Chinese.
Isn't that what capitalism is all about? Mr. Brown seems to be calling for some sort of government help for these car companies which sounds an awful lot like dirty socialism, and that's dowright unamerican.
To be fair, if I'm spending several thousand (or tens of thousand) of my hard-earned dollars on a vehicle, there's no way I'm going to even consider the sort of awful quality junk the Chinese are producing at the moment.
(Score: 5, Interesting) by edIII on Tuesday November 14 2017, @12:41AM (13 children)
I think we are just about at the Armageddon point for the industry. It's setup for an America that no longer exists. Young people are not lining up to saddle themselves with debt for a car, and instead turn to other solutions like Uber and Lyft, or public transit options. As for the awful quality junk the Chinese produce, that's inside American automobiles too. All the industry jobs went away with outsourcing, which weakened the Middle Class substantially, and has helped create a Middle Class unable to afford automobiles. At least not at the rate the U.S auto industry has been used to. Toyota is a foreign company, but has U.S based factories. So not everything needs to be outsourced and killing the local communities.
The real issue is going to come when we no longer need to drive our automobiles. Tesla and newer companies are going to eat the old entrenched auto industry's lunch. There will be manufacturers that provide AI vehicles, and most if not all of those, will be electric or hybrid. Manufacturers that provide technology used in these cars aren't waiting on the U.S auto industry.
Regardless of nationalism, an American isn't going to spend 30k+ on an automobile that requires financing, maintenancing, garaging, and insurance when the upfront costs of being driven by an AI vehicle is orders of magnitude less. We've created an America that is less dependent upon transportation (look at the young people and the Internet), and less able to provide their own dedicated vehicle for transportation.
That's when the auto industry craters. When marketers scream the question, "Don't you want a your own car!!?", and the average person shrugs and answers, "Yeah, but like, why man?"
Technically, lunchtime is at any moment. It's just a wave function.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by MichaelDavidCrawford on Tuesday November 14 2017, @12:56AM (2 children)
I expect that's due in large part to excessive student loan debt.
When I was at Caltech I got a $15,000 student loan. I had lots of trouble making the payments, but I did pay it all off.
Then I was able to buy a brand-new truck on credit.
How much credit does a kid with $50000 in debt get from auto finance corporations?
Yes I Have No Bananas. [gofundme.com]
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @01:06AM (1 child)
From its own website [caltech.edu]:
(Score: 2) by MichaelDavidCrawford on Tuesday November 14 2017, @01:10AM
While I was there in 1984 or so, the application fee was raised from $10 to $35 so Tech would have the same prestige as competing schools.
At the time, room, board, tuition and books were $10,000. I expect they raised the tuition so as not to appear to be a poor school.
Yes I Have No Bananas. [gofundme.com]
(Score: 5, Interesting) by bob_super on Tuesday November 14 2017, @01:09AM (8 children)
> It's setup for an America that no longer exists. Young people are not lining up to saddle themselves with debt for a car,
> and instead turn to other solutions like Uber and Lyft, or public transit options.
You broke my bullshit detector! Look, people here know I'm not exactly a proponent of coal rolling in a V10 lifted pickup, yet I have to tag you, to be polite, as a blinder-wearing urbanite.
Seriously. Only half of the country lives in cities, which means the other half HAS TO have a car, or two, or pretty much as many as they have drivers. Junkers will do, because freedom, man! What's the Uber/AI density in rural Penn when you need a grocery run at 7PM? What's that about the cops being minutes away when seconds count?
Now, the city half, some of those do find the car not worth the hassle ... if they are the wrong kind of poor (because a nice car is still status among the starving), or young and connected appartment-dwellers. The moment they have a kid or two, those who can afford it WILL get a car in all but the densest craziest downtowns. Keeping your kid's shit in the car, and not having to answer for the regular accidents kids cause, is a giant barrier to car sharing.
With 300 million americans, half of which still live in places where cars get beat up by the weather or roads, it's gonna be a while before Detroit has to worry about cars not selling at all, or the upstarts catching up on volume. It's gonna be a long time before the hundreds of billions that those cars are worth are provided by some car sharing companies.
I want to believe it. But it will happen in Europe's and Asia's walkable cities long before the US...
(Score: 5, Informative) by NewNic on Tuesday November 14 2017, @04:49AM (1 child)
Try 80% living in urban areas.
lib·er·tar·i·an·ism ˌlibərˈterēənizəm/ noun: Magical thinking that useful idiots mistake for serious political theory
(Score: 2) by bob_super on Tuesday November 14 2017, @05:31PM
Let's define "urban" in this context... My city in SoCal is 50% bigger than Paris, France. Removing all the park areas, let's say it's about the same.
My urban area has over 110k people, Paris has 20 times that.
I'm only a big quarter mile from a bus station and a mile from shops. Most of the city isn't anywhere near that lucky. Let's not talk about bus schedules, nor the four trains a day towards the giant ugly metropolis an hour away.
Urban...
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @07:57AM (2 children)
Not only that, but all of North America, except few select areas, has infrastructure meant only for cars. Not people, for cars. Parking lots the size of parks. City streets the size of Autobahn. Seriously, it's really fucked.
I've lived in North America for most my life and now I live in Germany. The difference cannot be more stark. I can walk from my home to work in 15 minutes. And no, my rent is less than $500 a month for a small apartment (and no, plenty like this available all over the city). There are 10 groceries stores within 10 minute walk, and I'm not talking 7/11, I'm talking normal grocery stores like LiDL, REWE, PENNY or Aldi. There is a bakery in my building and my building is not that unique. I have subway, tramway and bus, cyclepaths, kindergardens all within 100-200m. Schools within 1km. And no, no 30 floor high rises, but regular style 4 or 5 story townhouses (like in London, for example). Seriously. When someone mentions "walkable city" in North America, all you can do is laugh because they are fucking crazy. It's almost not even walkable to cross the street because they are so unnecessarily giant. The only place where I've seen a "regular" American-sized parking lot here is on the outskirts by IKEA and stores like that.
So yes, I agree with parent post 100%. In America you fucking need a car to live anything other than some weird lifestyle they have in few urbanite elite areas like San Francisco or New York. The entire infrastructure there has been designed not about person, or a family, but all about the car and the fake lifestyle manufactured in 1960s. SAD!
(Score: 3, Interesting) by TheRaven on Tuesday November 14 2017, @11:46AM (1 child)
When I was buying my first house (in a small city in the UK), I could spend about £110K to buy somewhere in the city centre, or about £85K to buy somewhere similar far enough out of town to need a car. That extra £25K on a mortgage would cost me about £1000/year, which is in the same ballpark the fixed costs associated with car ownership (tax and insurance), even if I don't drive it. Fuel, servicing, and depreciation all work out to about 30p/mile, so even driving it into town and back each day would cost me another £500 or so per year (assuming I found free parking each time, otherwise add another £2-5 each trip), so even if the house prices remained constant I'd be better off living in the middle of town than driving in. If house prices appreciated by 1% each year then at the end of five years I'd be another £1.2K better off and that amount goes up a lot more if house prices increase even more. Oh, and a lot of the reasons that I'd want to go into town involve alcohol, so I wouldn't be able to drive home anyway.
As someone just young enough to count as a millennial, I did the calculation and found that a car was a financial burden that I didn't want and instead invested in living somewhere a short walk from shops, restaurants, and places of work instead.
sudo mod me up
(Score: 2) by Spamalope on Tuesday November 14 2017, @12:58PM
That doesn't make up for the large property tax burden here. Or the cities like San Fran that began restricting new building to protect the look, but then lots of people bought at very high prices and we lose big time if the housing market supply caught up so most property owners are against new housing now.
Where I live there is no property tax on car, but there is for homes.
(Score: 2) by DannyB on Tuesday November 14 2017, @03:31PM (2 children)
I'll simply accept that half the population doesn't live in the city without argument. (Despite the outcome of the popular vote.)
Now of that half that need vehicles, they want good vehicles.
I think most American's have gotten the message: Detroit vehicles are junk.
Even if that is no longer true, it will take at least one generation of people to learn that it isn't so. Just as it took a whole generation to learn that it was so. No wonder GM went bankrupt.
So of half the population that needs to own cars, some of those might still try electric or alternately powered vehicles. If convenient charging infrastructure can be built. People that live in rural areas might benefit greatly from self driving cars, once the technology is truly ready and everything is sufficiently well mapped. And I suspect self driving will be of the modern car variety. Not the ad Marty McFly saw "convert your old clunker into a skyway flier for only $39,999.95!".
IMO, this is not a pretty picture for American auto makers. I don't like that it is so. But I am willing to recognize that it is so rather than try to bend reality to my wishes.
I'm sure that on farms, fuel powered big machinery will be the norm for a long time. And fuel powered pickoff trucks. Yet this is not a majority nor a large enough market to sustain Detroit.
People today are educated enough to repeat what they are taught but not to question what they are taught.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Phoenix666 on Tuesday November 14 2017, @07:24PM (1 child)
I dunno. If you could have farm machinery and pickups that were EVs that you could charge with wind and solar on your land, why wouldn't you? Driving into town for any reason is a pain in the butt.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 2) by DannyB on Tuesday November 14 2017, @10:50PM
That is a very insightful point.
At some point, the value generated from solar panels for a square acre of land, might exceed the value of anything you could grow on that same land.
Alternately, windmills might be able to coexist on land along with crops.
People today are educated enough to repeat what they are taught but not to question what they are taught.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday November 14 2017, @02:48AM
I'm sorry, young people can still purchase a serviceable dinojuice burner for about the annualized cost of insurance and maintenance, which with minimum wage at $15 per hour amounts to about a month of part time work. "Back in my day" minimum wage was closer to $3/hr take home, and a serviceable piece of ugly transportation cost about $1000. The "debt saddle" is much lower now than it was 30-40 years ago.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 4, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @01:27AM
> To be fair, if I'm spending several thousand (or tens of thousand) of my hard-earned dollars on a vehicle, there's no way I'm going to even consider the sort of awful quality junk the Chinese are producing at the moment.
For now, the Chinese domestic car companies are working on their domestic demand (sales within China). While they do that they are also learning the ropes, and their government will keep import duties high to keep out competition from established car making countries. By the time they decide to enter the USA (and/or Euro) markets the products will be good. And you (or others like you) will buy them because they are the low price solution (see Japanese cars in 1970s, and Korean ones now).
Jerry Brown is trying to get some "lead" into the market feedback system. He sees this coming (it's pretty obvious), and he also sees that our style of capitalism isn't going to do anything in advance to defend against it. If USA puts suitable rules/incentives into place that nudge Detroit in the right direction now, it might lessen the blow when it comes. Maybe both Ford and GM will survive, along with many thousands of middle-class jobs, although FCA (Chrysler) seems likely to be broken up into parts and sold off before the Chinese get to USA.
(Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Tuesday November 14 2017, @07:09PM
...out-competed by the Chinese.
... sounds an awful lot like dirty socialism, and that's dowright unamerican.
Ah yes, socialism. The cause of, and solution to, all our problems.
(Score: 2) by bob_super on Tuesday November 14 2017, @12:18AM (1 child)
The US produces more oil than ever. Gas is pretty cheap.
Detroit produces cars that most of their customers demand.
People currently making decisions will be long retired, and their families forever protected from need, before the electric cars take over the market.
With the money from selling pickup trucks and SUVs never carrying more than one or two people (already an increasing payload), Detroit can buy its way into that market when the tech and time are ripe.
If they fuck it up, there will be taxpayer money to save them anyway.
Gov Brown isn't completely wrong, but not cynical enough.
(Score: 2) by DannyB on Tuesday November 14 2017, @03:35PM
Sad, but true!
Now matter how many times American car makers go bankrupt due to their own ineptitude, the taxpayer will rescue them.
So I guess the message is that we should buy whatever junk Detroit is selling, because we're going to have to pay for it regardless.
People today are educated enough to repeat what they are taught but not to question what they are taught.
(Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @12:19AM (3 children)
Gov. Brown also changed the law so that it's no longer a felony to knowingly infect someone with HIV. He's also billions in debt and has no way out other than to beg the rest of the country to bail him out. Businesses are fleeing out of state, and are being replaced with enormous numbers of homeless people and illegals, the latter of whom you're not allowed to arrest. California is lucky they have really nice weather attracting rich people to live there, because otherwise it would be Detroit right now.
(Score: 1, Offtopic) by Uncle_Al on Tuesday November 14 2017, @12:23AM
California is lucky they have really nice weather attracting wealthy Chinese to live there
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @12:27AM
The government created AIDS in the first place. Jerry Brown is just doing his part to help it spread.
(Score: 5, Informative) by NewNic on Tuesday November 14 2017, @01:12AM
California is far from the worst state in terms of debt. Yes, it has more debt than any other state, but it has a much larger GDP than any other state, it has more people than any other state.
https://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/state_debt_rank [usgovernmentdebt.us]
lib·er·tar·i·an·ism ˌlibərˈterēənizəm/ noun: Magical thinking that useful idiots mistake for serious political theory
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @12:52AM (3 children)
There is a Tesla factory in California. The motive here is obvious. Tesla stock takes a dive at the mere suggestion that we wouldn't subsidize the cars.
Each rich person who can buy a Tesla gets something like $6000 to $9000. That is more than many poor people pay for a car, and don't forget the people too poor to even get a car at all.
Elon Musk didn't choose wisely. His factory is not in a swing state. He quit the group that was advising Trump as soon as Trump did something not to Musk's liking.
Oh well. Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio all want to be made great again.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by MichaelDavidCrawford on Tuesday November 14 2017, @01:14AM (1 child)
Apparently they have a problem getting their robots to weld body parts.
Tesla told one particular parts vendor to produce parts only on-order, rather than ahead of time.
Solar City is just a village.
I expect TSLA is going to go way down. If it ultimately survives that stock would be real good to buy. Do you think it will survive?
The analysis I read reported that Tesla keeps promising a bright future yet always end up in Hades. The analysts have grown weary of this.
Yes I Have No Bananas. [gofundme.com]
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @01:43AM
> Apparently they have a problem getting their robots to weld body parts.
The story I saw said the change from aluminum bodies (S & X) to some fancy new high strength steels for the Model 3 might be part of the problem. New ultra high strength steel alloys have great properties (strength, elongation, etc) and can almost be tailored to the application...but welding them without destroying the good properties is tricky.
Also, one article suggested that the stamped panels weren't fitting together too well. If there are gaps, spot welding doesn't work (or might work, but not well). Guessing further, stamping/forming the ultra high strength steels is also tricky, the amount of spring-back (because of the high strength) means stamping dies have to be specially shaped to generate the desired parts.
(Score: 3, Informative) by DannyB on Tuesday November 14 2017, @03:40PM
As I recall, he quit, along with a few others, followed by complete disbanding of the entire group, once they all recognized that Trump was immune to good advice. In fact, if given good advice he might use it to do just the opposite. They must have recognized that it was a profound waste of time in order to all collectively give up rather than keep trying.
People today are educated enough to repeat what they are taught but not to question what they are taught.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Entropy on Tuesday November 14 2017, @02:04AM (5 children)
California is a failure of crime, economy, and most everything else except weather. They even screwed up most ever gasoline can in America. To think they would be an example for anything is absurd.
(Score: 0, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @05:53AM
Entropy, a descriptive name for someone with a brain like yours.
(Score: 2) by Knowledge Troll on Tuesday November 14 2017, @03:00PM (1 child)
California certified gasoline cans are the worst.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @07:58PM
This.
Normal gas can: Oh the spout isn't long enough! It's okay though, I'll just force the flap open with a screwdriver and pour it in.
"Safe" California gas can: Oh the spout isn't long enough! Wait! I can't hold this screwdriver in place to hold the flap open at the same time as I'm pressing the spout down to open the valve! Dammit! Now I've got to do some weird contortionist moves to actually be able to pour the gas in and I still end up spilling half of it on the ground...
Leave it to California to have their new safe and "environmentally friendly" innovations result in gasoline being spillt on a puddle on the ground, wasted. I bet these are the same "environmentalists" who think that cars sitting idling in traffic going nowhere is good for the environment, because it will convince us to take public transportation or ride a bike instead. LOL!
(Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Tuesday November 14 2017, @07:11PM (1 child)
California is a failure of crime, economy, and most everything else except weather. They even screwed up most ever gasoline can in America. To think they would be an example for anything is absurd.
All that and they still manage to subsidize all the red states. Impressive!
(Score: 2) by Entropy on Friday November 17 2017, @12:29PM
With what money? They don't even have water. Do you mean they export Mexican criminals to the red states?
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @02:35AM
Once upon a time there were over 100 different auto manufacturers in the USA alone. Many merged or failed early, the next big round was during the 1930s Great Depression. In the "great recession" ~10 years ago, a number of established brands left the market. Here's a prediction for the next round of mergers, acquisitions and failures in the auto industry:
For the rest of the alphabetical list, see http://www.autoextremist.com/current/2017/11/13/a-brave-new-brand-world.html [autoextremist.com]
** Devs -- this is an article that I'd like to revisit in a few years. Is anyone working on an "auto-resubmit-story-at-future-date" feature?
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @04:25AM (2 children)
The original title was "Governor Moonbeam..."
https://soylentnews.org/submit.pl?op=viewsub&subid=23261 [soylentnews.org]
Nearly everyone here should be old enough to remember Jerry Brown's nickname. Where's the harm in that?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @11:13AM (1 child)
As long as Pres. Bush gets called Chimp, Obama gets called Hitler and Trump Trump.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @06:30PM
I think the current meme is that Trump is Hitler, not Obama. Obama is an extremist Muslim lackey as in Barack Hussein Obama bin Laden.