Arthur T Knackerbracket has found the following story:
The global smartphone market is shrinking for the first time as choosey buyers in emerging markets hang on to their mobiles for longer.
In Gartner's Q4 sales stats, Samsung maintained a narrow lead in global volume shipments of smartphones – but every major (top five) vendor outside of those based in China saw unit shipments slip.
Some 407.84 million handsets found a new home in the quarter, equating to a 5.6 per cent slide or 24.29 million fewer phones sold than the prior year.
Several major factors caused the market shrinkage, said Anshul Gupta, research director at Gartner. "First, upgrades from feature phones to smartphones have slowed right down due to a lack of quality 'ultra-low-cost' smartphones and users preferring to buy quality feature phones.
"Second, replacement smartphone users are choosing quality models and keeping them longer, lengthening the replacement cycle of smartphones. Moreover, while demand for high quality, 4G connectivity and better camera features remained strong, high expectations and few incremental benefits during replacement weakened smartphone sales," Gupta added.
This is a characteristic of the emerging markets, where all the action is – not mature markets like the UK or USA.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by julian on Monday February 26 2018, @07:25AM (8 children)
Imagine seeing this as a problem; that products are generally high quality, long-lived, and sufficient for needs. Hopefully this trend continues, and smart phones last longer and longer, and are replaced less and less often. The counter-trend, which industry prefers, is monstrously irresponsible.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 26 2018, @07:33AM (6 children)
Society is about allocating resources to this or to that.
Large organizations comprised of tens of thousands of people (and vastly more if you consider shareholders, etc.) have allocated resources to gearing an industry for rapid turnover of smartphones. Yet, now the data is in, and that data shows us that this is not the correct view of society; that allocation of resources is incorrect and therefore represents an overhead that needs to be corrected in order squeeze out of the Universe even more productivity.
If it's true that people want better designed devices that last longer, then the industry will re-gear for that; of course, the result will be that phones become more expensive or less innovative, because society won't be funding rapid iteration anymore.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 26 2018, @10:40AM
I think that's a natural evolution of technology. When a technology is in its infancy, it will improve rapidly, and therefore new generations will be much better than previous ones. This favours rapid turnover. But eventually, the technology will approach a sweet spot where it essentially provides everything the average user wants, so there's much less incentive to get a new one, and people will look more for longevity.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 26 2018, @01:17PM
There's more than one market segment. Look at automobiles - some people always want a new vehicle and replace often while others hold on for 10, maybe even 20 years. Some lease theirs, others buy, and many buy used. They're getting more reliable and safer and most people who want one already have one.
(Score: 4, Informative) by VLM on Monday February 26 2018, @01:26PM (3 children)
Hasn't that already happened? Comparing 2005 to 2010 is pretty exciting, comparing 2010 to 2015 is extremely boring.
My first smart phone was a LG Optimus S from the republic wireless beta program, a circa 2010 phone. Since then nothing has really changed. My hopelessly obsolete Nexus 6P (sarcasm implied) is a couple years old, lets say 2015, and theres a larger screen, larger battery, somewhat faster CPU but not much difference (you certainly don't notice it in any non-game app). There's more memory, as you'd expect based on general IT industry advancement. The quality of giant desktop LCD monitors has seen slow evolutionary improvement much like memory. In fact batteries and CPU are also not primarily phone driven. Really all phone makers are doing is integration.
The integration point is there's a huge difference WRT R+D between something like Dell in the oldest days assembling whitebox PC clones, vs apple inventing the first macintosh plus or minus stolen Xerox PARC ideas etc.
Until I bought the Nexus 6P I would have to juggle apps to keep what I wanted in memory, no longer, there's now no reason to upgrade beyond replacement due to wear or accident. My memory use was probably pretty ridiculous compared to normie use case; plenty of audiobooks downloaded for listening to in poor reception areas and plenty of downloaded podcasts. Your average facebook infinite scroll addict does not need as much memory as an audiobook or podcast addict.
This also matches app sales. Doggcatcher still works for podcasts. So I'd spend money for a new podcatcher... why? My spending on apps must be in exponential decay. Last year according to Google Play Account info all I bought was Backcountry Navigator so I could download topo maps for hiking in the woods far from cell service after one annoying event, naturally I haven't been in an out of service area since (I'm east of the Mississippi River, life out west must be more exciting). In 2016 I spent more, I bought some cardboard games that I haven't looked at since.
(Score: 2) by frojack on Monday February 26 2018, @06:05PM
Yeah, I surf the Play store for something of interest every once in a while.
I seldom find anything, maybe some music, that goes direct to google cloud.
I've been shedding apps. Not because of lack of room, but aging (non trivialy replaceable) battery. Its a 2014 phone.
Just having rarely used apps DOES use battery because so many of them want to talk to the mother ship and start by default.
Last App I bought was Signal by Open Whisper Systems. Oh, wait, it was free, and better integrated than the crap from Google.
Next phone will be 4 gig ram, and 128 gig storage, and maybe it will last 5 or 6 years till battery dies. I'm not in any
hurry to get rid of my current phone.
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 26 2018, @10:13PM (1 child)
I know plenty of "normies" that run out of space. Pictures, and auto-downloaded email attachments they don't know how to delete. A selfie addict will fill a phone very quickly.
(Score: 2) by VLM on Tuesday February 27 2018, @02:09PM
That was a good point AC. Video recordings will also eat storage. I'm not really into that lifestyle so I hadn't considered it, but it would burn lots of storage for those into that hobby. Also I'm a good sysadmin so my Downloads directory doesn't contain 50000 items but yeah I bet there's people out there...
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday February 27 2018, @02:16AM
Or if we apply this to the PC desktop it's like "OMG THE SMARTPHONE INDUSTRY IS CRASHING!!!"
(Score: 5, Interesting) by Sulla on Monday February 26 2018, @07:27AM (2 children)
The shell game that is the conspiracy of apple and samsung to keep physical keyboards out of the market can only last so long. I myself have used a BlackBerry priv with a physical keyboard for a number of years and see no reason to sell my soul to the slow typing on screen keyboard yet. It is still possible to be saved and I will provide, if I can, the physical keys to salvation. Instead of buying into the meme of terrible features why not buy into the truth of quality built hardware.
Ceterum censeo Sinae esse delendam
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 26 2018, @05:20PM
Hell, T9 is better than touchscreen. I've owned one Android phone in my lifetime, and that was because I wanted to see what it was all about. It failed to wow me, and it ran slow as shit despite being a quad-core supercomputer. So I upgraded to a feature phone with physical buttons. I've been extremely happy with my new phone. It's way better than the Android phone I used.
(Score: 1, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 26 2018, @05:50PM
I was reluctant to switch from a phone with a physical keyboard (used an LG ally, then Motorola Droid 3 for 3-4 years), but I eventually switched to a Galaxy Note 2 for the stylus. It doesn't feel as nice, but my message speed actually increased (predictive text and swiping combined with a screen that provides bigger virtual buttons compared to the tiny physical ones).
YMMV, since I never believed in souls in the first place and do not seek salvation.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by Dr Spin on Monday February 26 2018, @07:35AM (4 children)
users preferring to buy quality feature phones
There are a lot of use cases where a touch screen is a disaster, or cameras are forbidden.
There are plenty of people who actually value battery life over social media (or, indeed, ANYTHING over social media).
Warning: Opening your mouth may invalidate your brain!
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 26 2018, @07:37AM
A lot of feature phones have cameras too. I guess the kinds of places that ban cameras would also ban cell phones in general.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 26 2018, @09:24AM
You can get "dumb phone" level battery life from many smart phones if you use them like a dumb phone.
Go look at the standby times. Some are > 400 hours. The talk times can be even longer than "oldschool" dumb phones.
Compare:
https://www.gsmarena.com/xiaomi_redmi_4_(4x)-8608.php [gsmarena.com]
https://www.gsmarena.com/nokia_3310-192.php [gsmarena.com]
https://www.gsmarena.com/nokia_1600-1188.php [gsmarena.com]
https://www.gsmarena.com/nokia_1112-1523.php [gsmarena.com]
(Score: 2) by frojack on Monday February 26 2018, @06:13PM
You can hardly find even feature phone without a camera. Friends of mine work in a Navy base where cameras are not allowed. Not on base. Not on ship. Not even in your car.
I think Amazon has 3 such models. They all buy one of these just to call home.
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 2) by bob_super on Monday February 26 2018, @06:43PM
> use cases where a touch screen is a disaster
If you want to teach some colorful swear words to your children, put them next to my dad when he's forced to use a touch screen.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 26 2018, @08:18AM (1 child)
I think it's far more likely by now that everyone who was going to upgrade from a feature phone to a smartphone has done so already. People who only have a feature phone at this point have it because they WANT a feature phone or are in a situation where all they can get is a feature phone. I can think of many reasons to want a feature phone over a smartphone:
1. Low cost; easy to replace if it gets damaged or destroyed.
2. Very long battery life and fast to recharge from ANY USB charger.
3. Ease of use. (Some people don't want the distraction/confusion of all the functions of a touch screen computer when all they want to do is place and receive calls.)
4. Usually much more durable without adding a potentially bulky case.
5. No need for a screen protector that requires a low-class clean room if you don't want a bunch of dust forever trapped between it and the screen.
I also wonder how many people aren't buying new phones because they don't want some flawed piece of shit with a sealed-in non-replaceable battery. I for one won't pay good money for something I know will become absolutely useless in about 18 months only because some fucktard MBA decided either form was more important than function (FUCK YOU iTARDS! YOU BRAINDEAD MOTHERFUCKERS ARE HALF THE REASON SEALED-IN BATTERIES ARE A THING! *cough*) or they thought they could make more money by planned obsolescence.
(Score: 2) by bob_super on Monday February 26 2018, @06:53PM
As explained in TFS, the bulk of growth is in emerging markets.
At the same time, premium phones keep getting much more expensive, without adding significant usage improvements.
100 million smartphones per month is pretty much where you have to start your exponential slowdown to plateau, because that's 2.4B smartphones per two years, and you're starting to run out of people who can afford these gadgets costing over a month of their income, let alone the data plans that would make them usable.
Add a minor contribution of the US government making a mess all over the world (directly, indirectly, or just by raising anger level all around), compared to the previous Q4, and all this means that a slowdown in smartphone buys is not surprising at all.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 26 2018, @08:59AM (2 children)
But they never did
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 26 2018, @09:07AM (1 child)
All you could ever do on these things is what some 20-something-year-old imagined, and then restricted by corporate bean counters.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday February 27 2018, @09:25AM
Neither of whom ever heard about GNU/Linux.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by VLM on Monday February 26 2018, @01:37PM (1 child)
A topic no one has mentioned yet is software upgrades and the likely impact on this issue.
Google is the best in the business AFAIK and I currently use google FI and a two year old Nexus 6P and google promises OS upgrades for only 2 years and security patches for only 3 years. So my nearly two year old 6P is nearing its enforced obsolescence death date. Other mfgrs do things like no upgrades or security patches ... ever at all.
You never really "own" a closed source cell phone. You're just paying up front for use for a couple months until Big Brother decides you'll buy another by stopping upgrades. I'm not "really" paying $30/month for goog fi plus a phone, I'm paying $30/month for service and $25/month to replace my phone every two years or so I'm not sure pay as you go actually saves money. For feature phones, certainly, for smart phones probably not.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 26 2018, @09:40PM
(Score: 2) by HiThere on Monday February 26 2018, @05:42PM
The only reason I have a smart phone now is that my old phone was dying and I needed a replacement quickly. When I replace it, it won't be with a smartphone unless they've **dramatically** improved as phones.
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Monday February 26 2018, @08:46PM (1 child)
GOOD /grumpycat.jpg
I hate the fucking things. They're spy devices pretending to be phones but which are actually locked-down-to-shit computers.
I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday February 27 2018, @01:51AM
Actually they're not half bad as computers, even without rooting. All you need is a terminal app and some software cross-compiled from Linux. The only major frustration is the touch keyboard.