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posted by martyb on Saturday June 02 2018, @09:46AM   Printer-friendly

The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) may be able to find new planets in our solar system, including the hypothesized planets Nine and Ten:

Overall, these estimates indicated that Planet 9/X was a super-Earth with anywhere between 5 to 20 Earth masses, and orbited the Sun at a distance of between 150 – 600 AU. Concurrently, these studies have also attempted to narrow down where this Super-Earth's orbit will take it throughout the outer Solar System, as evidenced by the perturbations it has on KBOs.

Unfortunately, the predicted locations and brightness of the object are not yet sufficiently constrained for astronomers to simply look in the right place at the right time and pick it out. In this respect, a large area sky survey must be carried out using moderately large telescopes with a very wide field of view. As Dr. Trilling told Universe Today via email:

"The predicted Planet X candidates are not particularly faint, but the possible locations on the sky are not very well constrained at all. Therefore, what you really need to find Planet X is a medium-depth telescope that covers a huge amount of sky. This is exactly LSST. LSST's sensitivity will be sufficient to find Planet X in almost all its (their) predicted configurations, and LSST will cover around half of the known sky to this depth. Furthermore, the cadence is well-matched to finding moving objects, and the data processing systems are very advanced. If you were going to design a tool to find Planet X, LSST is what you would design."

On the detectability of Planet X with LSST

Two planetary mass objects in the far outer Solar System --- collectively referred to here as Planet X --- have recently been hypothesized to explain the orbital distribution of distant Kuiper Belt Objects. Neither planet is thought to be exceptionally faint, but the sky locations of these putative planets are poorly constrained. Therefore, a wide area survey is needed to detect these possible planets. The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) will carry out an unbiased, large area (around 18,000 deg2), deep (limiting magnitude of individual frames of 24.5) survey (the "wide-fast-deep" survey) of the southern sky beginning in 2022, and is therefore an important tool to search for these hypothesized planets. Here we explore the effectiveness of LSST as a search platform for these possible planets. Assuming the current baseline cadence (which includes the wide-fast-deep survey plus additional coverage) we estimate that LSST will confidently detect or rule out the existence of Planet X in 61% of the entire sky. At orbital distances up to ~75 au, Planet X could simply be found in the normal nightly moving object processing; at larger distances, it will require custom data processing. We also discuss the implications of a non-detection of Planet X in LSST data.

Related: Astronomers Seek Widest View Ever of the Universe With New Telescope
Mars-Sized Planetary Mass Object Could be Influencing Nearby Kuiper Belt Objects
Medieval Records Could Point the Way to Planet Nine
Another Trans-Neptunian Object With a High Orbital Inclination Points to Planet Nine


Original Submission

Related Stories

Astronomers Seek Widest View Ever of the Universe With New Telescope 8 comments

Seen at phys.org: "Astronomers seek widest view ever of the universe with new telescope".

The telescope is the LSST (Large Synoptic Survey Telescope) and construction of the $700 million telescope will begin this spring on a mountaintop in Chile's Atacama Desert. The telescope is expected to scan the entire southern sky, every few nights.

Wikipedia notes:

The optics are, of course, quite important and challenging, but even more so will be the data processing required to handle such a stream of data — 30 terabytes of data nightly. Allowing for maintenance, bad weather, etc., the camera is expected to take over 200,000 pictures (1.28 petabytes uncompressed) per year, far more than can be reviewed by humans. Managing and effectively data mining the enormous output of the telescope is expected to be the most technically difficult part of the project. Initial computer requirements are estimated at 100 teraflops of computing power and 15 petabytes of storage, rising as the project collects data.

According to their FAQ:

The LSST is a synoptic survey in several ways: billions of objects will be imaged in six colors in an unprecedented large volume of our universe. This survey over half the sky also records the time evolution of these sources: the first motion picture of our universe. [...]

The LSST is different from other ground-based telescopes in that it is a wide-field survey telescope and camera that can move quickly around the sky and image everything over and over. We describe it as Wide-Fast-Deep. That combination is unique: wide field of view (10 square degrees), short exposures (pairs of 15-second exposures), and sensitive camera (24th magnitude single images, 27th magnitude stacked). LSST is far more than a telescope. With its 3200 Megapixel camera, supercomputer, and giant data processing, analysis, and distribution system, the LSST facility will produce an entirely new view of our universe enabling unforeseen explorations of discovery.

If you are interested in being a part of this undertaking, they are hiring!

Mars-Sized Planetary Mass Object Could be Influencing Nearby Kuiper Belt Objects 42 comments

Astronomers are inferring the existence of a "Planet Ten" (or actually the true "Planet Nine"?), a Mars-sized body in the Kuiper Belt, several times closer to the Sun than where the hypothetical Neptune-like Planet Nine is expected to be:

An unknown, unseen "planetary mass object" may lurk in the outer reaches of our solar system, according to new research on the orbits of minor planets to be published in the Astronomical Journal. This object would be different from — and much closer than — the so-called Planet Nine, a planet whose existence yet awaits confirmation.

In the paper, Kat Volk and Renu Malhotra of the University of Arizona's Lunar and Planetary Laboratory, or LPL, present compelling evidence of a yet-to-be-discovered planetary body with a mass somewhere between that of Mars and Earth. The mysterious mass, the authors show, has given away its presence — for now — only by controlling the orbital planes of a population of space rocks known as Kuiper Belt objects, or KBOs, in the icy outskirts of the solar system.

[...] According to the calculations, an object with the mass of Mars orbiting roughly 60 AU from the sun on an orbit tilted by about eight degrees (to the average plane of the known planets) has sufficient gravitational influence to warp the orbital plane of the distant KBOs within about 10 AU to either side.

Also at New Scientist.

The curiously warped mean plane of the Kuiper belt

We estimate this deviation from the expected mean plane to be statistically significant at the ∼97−99% confidence level. We discuss several possible explanations for this deviation, including the possibility that a relatively close-in (a≲100~au), unseen small planetary-mass object in the outer solar system is responsible for the warping.


Original Submission

Medieval Records Could Point the Way to Planet Nine 32 comments

Medieval astronomical records, such as the Bayeux Tapestry, could help narrow down the location (or at least infer the existence) of the hypothetical Planet Nine:

Scientists suspect the existence of Planet Nine because it would explain some of the gravitational forces at play in the Kuiper Belt, a stretch of icy bodies beyond Neptune. But no one has been able to detect the planet yet, though astronomers are scanning the skies for it with tools such as the Subaru Telescope on Hawaii's Mauna Kea volcano.

Medieval records could provide another tool, said Pedro Lacerda, a Queen's University astronomer and the other leader of the project.

"We can take the orbits of comets currently known and use a computer to calculate the times when those comets would be visible in the skies during the Middle Ages," Lacerda told Live Science. "The precise times depend on whether our computer simulations include Planet Nine. So, in simple terms, we can use the medieval comet sightings to check which computer simulations work best: the ones that include Planet Nine or the ones that do not."

Also at Queen's University Belfast.

Related: "Planet Nine" Might Explain the Solar System's Tilt
Planet Nine's Existence Disfavoured by New Data
Study of ETNOs Supports Planet Nine's Existence
Passing Star Influenced Comet Orbits in Our Solar System 70,000 Years Ago


Original Submission

Another Trans-Neptunian Object With a High Orbital Inclination Points to Planet Nine 27 comments

2015 BP519, nicknamed "Caju", is another extreme trans-Neptunian object that points to the existence of Planet Nine. Discovered with data from the Dark Energy Survey, Caju has a relatively large diameter, estimated at around 400-700 km, meaning the object could be a gravitationally rounded dwarf planet. It also has a highly inclined orbit of 54°, which a team of scientists says can be explained by the presence of the hypothetical Planet Nine:

After discovering it, the team tried to investigate 2015 BP519's origins using computer simulations of the Solar System. However, these tests were not able to adequately explain how the object had ended with such an orbit.

But when the team added a ninth planet with properties exactly matching those predicted by the Caltech scientists in 2016, the orbit of 2015 BP519 suddenly made sense. "The second you put Planet Nine in the simulations, not only can you form objects like this object, but you absolutely do," Juliette Becker, a Michigan graduate student and lead author of the study told Quanta.

Some researchers, however, caution that Planet Nine may not be the only explanation for 2015 BP519's strange orbit. Michele Bannister, a planetary astronomer from Queen's University Belfast, in Ireland, who was not involved in the study, told Newsweek that while the latest findings were "a great discovery," other scenarios could account for its tilt. "This object is unusual because it's on a high inclination," she said. "This can be used to maybe tell us some things about its formation process. There are a number of models that suggest you can probably put objects like this into the shape of orbit and the tilt of orbit that we see today."

Also at Quanta Magazine.

Discovery and Dynamical Analysis of an Extreme Trans-Neptunian Object with a High Orbital Inclination (arXiv:1805.05355)

Related: Medieval Records Could Point the Way to Planet Nine


Original Submission

CU Boulder Researchers Say Collective Gravity, Not Planet Nine, Explains Orbits of Detached Objects 16 comments

Collective gravity, not Planet Nine, may explain the orbits of 'detached objects'

Bumper car-like interactions at the edges of our solar system—and not a mysterious ninth planet—may explain the the dynamics of strange bodies called "detached objects," according to a new study. CU Boulder Assistant Professor Ann-Marie Madigan and a team of researchers have offered up a new theory for the existence of planetary oddities like Sedna—an icy minor planet that circles the sun at a distance of nearly 8 billion miles. Scientists have struggled to explain why Sedna and a handful of other bodies at that distance look separated from the rest of the solar system. [...] The researchers presented their findings today at a press briefing at the 232nd meeting of the American Astronomical Society, which runs from June 3-7 in Denver, Colorado.

[...] [Jacob] Fleisig had calculated that the orbits of icy objects beyond Neptune circle the sun like the hands of a clock. Some of those orbits, such as those belonging to asteroids, move like the minute hand, or relatively fast and in tandem. Others, the orbits of bigger objects like Sedna, move more slowly. They're the hour hand. Eventually, those hands meet. "You see a pileup of the orbits of smaller objects to one side of the sun," said Fleisig, who is the lead author of the new research. "These orbits crash into the bigger body, and what happens is those interactions will change its orbit from an oval shape to a more circular shape." In other words, Sedna's orbit goes from normal to detached, entirely because of those small-scale interactions.

Also at Popular Mechanics, where Planet Nine proposer Konstantin Batygin disputes the findings:

Batygin, of Caltech, tells Popular Mechanics that any sufficiently strong gravitational encounter could detach an object from Neptune's embrace, but for the distant small bodies of the Kuiper belt to have done so through "self-gravity"—as the CU model proposes—there would need to be about five to ten times the mass of Earth in the outer parts of the Kuiper belt. There isn't.

"Unfortunately, the self-gravity story suffers from the following complications," Batygin says. "Both observational and theoretical estimates place the total mass of the Kuiper belt at a value significantly smaller than that of the Earth [only 1 to 10 percent Earth's mass]. As a consequence, Kuiper belt objects generally behave like test-particles enslaved by Neptune's gravitational pull, rather than a self-interacting group of planetoids."

Planet Nine.

Related: Planet Nine's Existence Disfavoured by New Data
Medieval Records Could Point the Way to Planet Nine
Another Trans-Neptunian Object With a High Orbital Inclination Points to Planet Nine
Outer Solar System Origins Survey Discovers Over 800 Trans-Neptunian Objects
LSST Could be the Key to Finding New Planets in Our Solar System


Original Submission

The Search for Planet Nine Continues; Potential Candidate Found 35 comments

Where *Isn't* Planet 9? Search for Planet Nine still continues

Not long ago astronomers Mike Brown and Konstantin Batygin (the two original people proposing the existence of the planet) used the alignments of the TNO orbits to back-calculate the potential location of the unseen planet in space. It's a kind of treasure map to find the planet.

In a new paper they've put that map to use, looking through survey data in a hunt for Planet 9.

[...] Brown and Batygin wrote software that simulates where Planet 9 would be and how bright it would appears for various values of its size, reflectivity, and orbital shape. They created a database of positions and brightnesses for it, and then combed through the [Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF)] database to look for it, going through the past three or so years of observations since the facility started its survey campaign.

[...] They ran 100,000 simulations of various parameters for the planet, and looked to see if the ZTF would've seen it if it were indeed smaller and closer to us. They determined that it would've been seen in the survey about 56,000 times out of the 100,000, so just looking at that their non-detection indicates the chance it's smaller and closer is now less than 50%, making it more likely it's farther out, bigger, and fainter.

The larger Vera C. Rubin Observatory is expected to find many previously hidden objects in the solar system, and is scheduled to begin full operations in October 2023. It will accumulate all-sky survey data around 10 times faster than the Zwicky Transient Facility.

Also at ExtremeTech.

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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday June 02 2018, @10:31AM (1 child)

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday June 02 2018, @10:31AM (#687636)

    Turns out there's an extra 2pi steradians that we've been missing all this time.

    You need to look south from the north pole, but not the normal south: the *other* south. And BAM, there it is.

  • (Score: 2) by bzipitidoo on Saturday June 02 2018, @11:24AM (1 child)

    by bzipitidoo (4388) on Saturday June 02 2018, @11:24AM (#687643) Journal

    The existence of a Planet 9 was first proposed in 2014. I suppose it took a couple of years to ramp up the search for it. The astronomers felt it would take no more than 5 years to find. So it may be that the LSST will come online a day late for the hunt.

    • (Score: 4, Insightful) by takyon on Saturday June 02 2018, @11:35AM

      by takyon (881) <takyonNO@SPAMsoylentnews.org> on Saturday June 02 2018, @11:35AM (#687647) Journal

      Michael Brown and Konstantin Batygin are searching in a narrow patch of sky using the Subaru telescope. But they have only a fraction of the telescope's time, and some days have had really bad weather, which means a wasted day of observations. Part of their search space intersects with the disk of the Milky Way, which is unhelpful. Planet Nine could be closer to aphelion, making it much harder to detect. And if their search parameters are wrong, then they could be wasting their time looking at the wrong part of the sky.

      https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/looking-for-planet-nine-astronomers-gaze-into-the-abyss/ [scientificamerican.com]

      High-altitude weather sometimes fouls the narrow observational windows, and both teams’ recent observing sessions at Subaru have been decidedly unlucky. Near-continual snow and hail blotted out the sky for Brown and Batygin on one fruitless run last December; their final night was particularly grim, when an igloolike shell of ice frozen to Subaru’s protective dome prevented them from even accessing the telescope. On another trip in January poor weather prevented Sheppard and Trujillo from making 70 percent of their planned observations. During Brown and Batygin’s most recent outing in February persistent high-altitude winds smeared the stars into pancakelike shapes, scuttling the search. “I like pancakes,” Brown quipped on Twitter, “but not this many.” Plagued by poor weather, what began as a sprint to the finish has turned into a longer slog.

      [...] “The stinging possibility here is that Planet Nine is just frickin’ far out, and then we have to wait for a new generation of better telescopes to find it,” Batygin says. “Another possibility I try not to think about too much is that it’s in the galactic plane.” That’s the disk of the Milky Way that arcs like a glowing backbone through the night sky. A fraction of Planet Nine’s proposed orbit passes through this region, where the dim, glacially creeping planetary dot could hide in a thick fog of background stars.

      Only one near-future facility can easily pierce the Milky Way’s luminous veil: the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), a behemoth of an observatory with an 8.4-meter wide-field mirror hooked up to a three-gigapixel camera. Currently under construction in Chile and set to begin its survey in 2022, during each night’s observations the LSST will capture 20 terabytes’ worth of panoramic views of the sky overhead to create a celestial time-lapse movie of unprecedented depth and detail. Its expansive view is likely to uncover hundreds if not thousands of additional extreme TNOs, providing a flood of hard data to further test Brown and Batygin’s hypothesis. Even if Planet Nine is rather dim, particularly far away and in front of the galactic plane, the most crucial evidence for or against its existence should pop out of LSST’s colossal database within a few years of the survey’s debut—presuming it is not found before then.

      --
      [SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
  • (Score: 0) by MyOpinion on Saturday June 02 2018, @05:17PM (2 children)

    by MyOpinion (6561) on Saturday June 02 2018, @05:17PM (#687748) Homepage Journal

    .. they must first demonstrate the CURVATURE and ACCELERATION of this here "planet".

    As a friendly reminder, the curvature and motion of the Earth has never been proven. Unproven stuff should not be taught to children (or anyone really) as facts.

    --
    Truth is like a Lion: you need not defend it; let it loose, and it defends itself. https://discord.gg/3FScNwc
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