Everyone in Silicon Valley knows the story of Xerox inventing the modern personal computer in the 1970s and then failing to commercialize it effectively. Yet one of Silicon Valley's most successful companies, Google's Alphabet, appears to be repeating Xerox's mistake with its self-driving car program.
[...] Google's self-driving car program, created in 2009, appears to be on a similar trajectory. By October 2015, Google was confident enough in its technology to put a blind man into one of its cars for a solo ride in Austin, Texas.
But much like Xerox 40 years earlier, Google has struggled to bring its technology to market. The project was rechristened Waymo in 2016, and Waymo was supposed to launch a commercial driverless service by the end of 2018. But the service Waymo launched in December was not driverless and barely commercial. It had a safety driver in every vehicle, and it has only been made available to a few hundred customers.
Today, a number of self-driving startups are aiming to do to Waymo what Apple did to Xerox years ago. Nuro is a driverless delivery startup that announced Monday that it raised $940 million in venture capital. Another, called Voyage, is testing a self-driving taxi service in one of the nation's largest retirement communities.
Right now, these companies' self-driving services aren't as sophisticated as Waymo's. Their vehicles have top speeds of 25 miles per hour. But Apple started out making under-powered products, too, then it gradually worked its way up-market, ultimately eclipsing Xerox. If Waymo isn't strategic, companies like Nuro and Voyage could do the same thing to the pioneering self-driving company.
Previously: Google's Waymo Plans to Launch a Self-Driving Car Service in December
Waymo Announces Limited Debut of "Driverless" Taxi Service in Phoenix, AZ
Waymo Announces Plans for a Driverless Vehicle Factory in Michigan
Related Stories
Waymo to Start First Driverless Car Service Next Month
In just a few weeks, humanity may take its first paid ride into the age of driverless cars. Waymo, the secretive subsidiary of Google's parent company, Alphabet Inc., is planning to launch the world's first commercial driverless car service in early December, according to a person familiar with the plans. It will operate under a new brand and compete directly with Uber and Lyft.
Waymo is keeping the new name a closely guarded secret until the formal announcement, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the plans haven't been made public.
"Waymo has been working on self-driving technology for nearly a decade, with safety at the core of everything we do," the company said in an emailed statement. A Waymo spokesperson declined to comment on the name of the new service or timing of the launch.
It's a big milestone for self-driving cars, but it won't exactly be a "flip-the-switch" moment. Waymo isn't planning a splashy media event, and the service won't be appearing in an app store anytime soon, according to the person familiar with the program. Instead, things will start small—perhaps dozens or hundreds of authorized riders in the suburbs around Phoenix, covering about 100 square miles.
The first wave of customers will likely draw from Waymo's Early Rider Program—a test group of 400 volunteer families who have been riding Waymos for more than a year. The customers who move to the new service will be released from their non-disclosure agreements, which means they'll be free to talk about it, snap selfies, and take friends or even members of the media along for rides. New customers in the Phoenix area will be gradually phased in as Waymo adds more vehicles to its fleet to ensure a balance of supply and demand.
Related: Google Waymo Vehicles to Hit the Road This Month
Waymo Orders Thousands More Chrysler Pacifica Minivans for Driverless Fleet
Walmart and Waymo to Trial Driverless Shuttle Service in Phoenix for Grocery Pickups
Waymo has announced a driverless taxi service called Waymo One, but it will only be usable for around 400 preapproved "early riders" in the Phoenix metro area, rather than the general public. While self-driving Chrysler Pacifica hybrid minivans will be used, they will continue to retain a safety driver behind the wheel.
Waymo's "new" service could be described as a launch in name only:
The banner Waymo is unfurling, though, is tattered by caveats. Waymo One will only be available to the 400 or so people already enrolled in Waymo's early rider program, which has been running in the calm, sunny Phoenix suburb of Chandler for about 18 months. (They can bring guests with them and have been freed from non-disclosure agreements that kept them from publicly discussing their experiences.) More glaringly, the cars will have a human behind the wheel, there to take control in case the car does something it shouldn't.
So no, this is not the anyone-can-ride, let-the-robot-drive experience Waymo and its competitors have been promising for years. Building a reliably safe system has proven far harder than just about everyone anticipated and its cars aren't ready to drive without human oversight. But Waymo promised to launch a commercial service sometime in 2018, it didn't want to miss its deadline and risk its reputation as the leader of the industry it essentially created, and not even the might of Waymo parent company Alphabet can delay the end of the calendar year.
So Waymo is pushing out a software update, tweaking its branding, and calling it a launch.
Also at Reuters, Gizmodo, The Atlantic, and Ars Technica.
See also: Waymo's driverless cars on the road: Cautious, clunky, impressive
Previously: Google/Waymo Self-Driving Minivan Tested with the Public in Phoenix AZ
Waymo Orders Thousands More Chrysler Pacifica Minivans for Driverless Fleet
Walmart and Waymo to Trial Driverless Shuttle Service in Phoenix for Grocery Pickups
Google's Waymo Plans to Launch a Self-Driving Car Service in December (the service falls short of what is described in this November article)
Waymo announces major expansion in Michigan, the cradle of the US auto industry
Waymo is expanding its presence in Michigan, the state synonymous with the US auto industry. The Google self-driving spinoff announced Tuesday that its plan to build a 200,000-square-foot manufacturing center and hire up to 400 employees over the next five years was just approved by the state's economic development corporation. It's a sign that Waymo is interested in gaining more control over its production process as it seeks to grow its business of deploying autonomous vehicles.
The Michigan Economic Development Corporation approved an $8 million incentive to Waymo to build its manufacturing plant in the state, The Detroit News reported. Under the deal, Waymo agrees to create a minimum of 100 new jobs in the state, but would receive the $8 million incentive only if it exceeds that minimum and creates up to 400 jobs. Total investment in the facility will be $13.6 million, MEDC says.
[...] In a blog post, Waymo said it would look to hire engineers, operations experts, and fleet coordinators. "This will be the world's first factory 100%-dedicated to the mass production of [Level 4] autonomous vehicles," the company said.
Also at TechCrunch.
Previously: Google's Waymo Plans to Launch a Self-Driving Car Service in December
Waymo Announces Limited Debut of "Driverless" Taxi Service in Phoenix, AZ
(Score: 3, Touché) by MichaelDavidCrawford on Saturday February 16 2019, @02:28AM (2 children)
You say that like it's a bad thing.
Yes I Have No Bananas. [gofundme.com]
(Score: 1, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 16 2019, @08:45AM (1 child)
You Keep Using That Phrase. I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 16 2019, @07:56PM
Well, it was actually appropriate this time. I would have done it myself if he hadn't.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Rosco P. Coltrane on Saturday February 16 2019, @02:37AM (1 child)
Nuro, Voyage, whoever... gone the instant someone gets killed in one of their truly driverless cars. They'll be hit with a lawsuit with the word "reckless" in it so hard their investors will flee faster than a fart in a hurricane.
Google on the other hand are playing the long game: they're playing it safe, and even if someone dies in a Waymo car, they can claim they tried to take the most careful baby steps in this brand new industry.
Driverless cars and graphical interfaces are very different: nobody gets killed when a GUI crashes. Google is definitely NOT doing the same mistake as Xerox.
(Score: 2) by darkfeline on Saturday February 16 2019, @04:41AM
>nobody gets killed when a GUI crashes
Au contraire. The next time Seahorse crashes, I'm pulling out my crossbow.
(Seriously though, that piece of shit segfaults on my machine when I try to change a keyring's password.)
Join the SDF Public Access UNIX System today!
(Score: 2) by CZB on Saturday February 16 2019, @03:01AM (2 children)
Maybe there's just too many unresolved, really hard, technical problems that don't make it into news articles. There aren't any fully autonomous tractors on the market yet, just a few research projects and trial units. One guy in the midwest made his own fully autonomous tractor and actually uses it. There was also a Canadian who made a tractor that can do a set of follow-and-return moves. There might be a few full auto orchard sprayers. My tractor has cruise control and blind GPS line following. No company is willing to take the liability risk yet. I'm expecting a no name Chinese company will be the first to sell full auto tractor kits.
The price point to hit is $5000 to $30000. If it's less than $10k most every farmer will buy one. But there just aren't that many tractors compared to cars.
(Score: 2) by takyon on Saturday February 16 2019, @03:16AM (1 child)
https://farmweeknow.com/story-autonomous-tractors-usher-age-swarm-farming-0-177780 [farmweeknow.com]
https://www.yanmar.com/global/news/2018/06/27/43763.html [yanmar.com]
https://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/16/future-of-farming-driverless-tractors-ag-robots.html [cnbc.com]
http://archive.fo/b6ZSF [archive.fo]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Driverless_tractor [wikipedia.org]
It seems like there is some progress being made, particularly in 2018.
[SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
(Score: 3, Interesting) by CZB on Saturday February 16 2019, @04:39PM
Yeah I'm always seeing articles like those, but no one has a product for me to buy. All the big tractor companies have a research project that has had working prototypes for years now. My guess is they just don't want to take the liability risk, or there are technical problems they haven't solved yet. It will be really interesting to see what happens when the first one goes live. Will all the other companies start selling theirs, indicating they were sitting on it? The other interesting thing will be what tractors are compatible. I'm guessing only the latest models, or entirely new ones. My tractor was made in 1998, there's no reason it couldn't have sensors added on. But the tractor companies are desperate to sell more tractors. They know a tractor lasts 30-40 years.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by JoeMerchant on Saturday February 16 2019, @04:18AM
Inventing a thing, building and demonstrating functional prototypes, even owning protective IP, does not require the risk and investment of actually attempting to commercialize it.
Taking a self-driving car to market, barring the fall of civilization, will happen eventually - but it might not be a great thing for the first company to do it, and Alphabet - so far - seems unwilling to make that investment and take that risk.
I mean, look at Tesla - how's that working out? How long do you think it will last? Historically, the automotive industry is a corporate slaughterhouse. Some make it through, but none unscathed.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2) by crafoo on Saturday February 16 2019, @07:18AM (1 child)
I don't see a data analytics and software company ever building real things in a production environment. Do their phones count? Or did they just borrow the factory, supply chain, and production processes from someone else?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 16 2019, @05:02PM
No
They've never been serious about producing a physical phone in volume
that's what the Chinese and Koreans are for
They just wanted to make sure they could inflict their spyware on everyone.
(Score: 2) by richtopia on Saturday February 16 2019, @06:56PM
If you are unable to commercialize technology you develop, license it to someone who can.