DRAM Prices Expected to Decline as Much as 30 Percent This Quarter
DRAMeXchange, a division of market research firm Trendforce, announced today that it expects contract prices for server DRAM to decrease by 30 percent compared to Q1 2019 prices. DRAMeXchange previously predicted that server DRAM prices would fall over 20 percent in Q1 but is now making its prediction even more dramatic.
TrendForce's analysts believe that the same issues of oversupply and lower-than-expected demand that affected suppliers in Q1 2019 will affect the market in Q2, as prices fall 15 percent compared to Q2 2018.
They also predict that the consumer PC market will continue to see DRAM price declines of 20 percent in Q1 and 15 percent in Q2.
Previously: Weak Demand for DRAM Could Lead to Price Decreases in 2019
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Screeech... DRAM! Weak demand hits memory-makers as they slam on CAPEX brakes – analyst
The three DRAM suppliers are scaling back production growth as memory demand falters with no sign of recovery. The DRAMeXchange research outfit has said annual DRAM capital expenditure (CAPEX) growth has gone negative for 2019 as Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron respond to weak seasonal demand in the first quarter and beyond. DRAM prices had risen for nine consecutive quarters until the last 2018 quarter, when they fell 10 per cent compared to the third quarter.
The demand outlook for PCs, servers, smartphones, and other end-consumer products is weak and the threat of a China-US trade war is not helping things. DRAMeXchange expects first quarter DRAM prices to show a 15 per cent fall, and see 10 per cent in the next, and then 5 per cent in both the third and fourth quarters, unless something positive happens, like China and the USA becoming best buddies.
The three DRAM suppliers are locked into some production output growth this year but have scaled back their CAPEX plans and reduced growth expectations as a result of the price falls.
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IC Insights Predicts Additional 40% Increase in DRAM Prices
Samsung Preparing to Build Another Memory Fab Near Pyeongtaek for $27.8 Billion
U.S. Indicts Chinese DRAM Maker JHICC for Alleged Industrial Espionage
RAM has never been cheaper, but are the historic prices here to stay?
RAM prices are at historic lows. But it hasn't always been that way. If you upgraded your PC's memory in 2018, you might be kicking yourself right now. This writer certainly is. I upgraded from an old, faithful 16GB of 1,600MHz DDR3 to a 16GB kit of Corsair Vengeance RGB 3,000MHz DDR4. It cost me the equivalent of $200 at the time. That same kit today is just $75. What the hell happened? As of mid-2019, prices have finally gotten under control and are currently at an all-time low, making this a great time to upgrade. But is it here to stay?
[...] Ben Miles, managing director of award-winning British system builder Chillblast, explained that "more and more memory foundries [are focusing] on flash type memory to feed the insatiable smart device and mobile phone industries. Turning a DRAM factory into a flash factory or vice versa takes many weeks, so when companies have chosen their path, its[sic] non-trivial to turn it back. When demand outstrips supply, module vendors are forced to stockpile DRAM chips and offer more money to secure stock, driving up prices."
All of this led to a huge increase in RAM prices between 2016 and 2018. Gamers Nexus put together an in-depth report on this at the start of 2018 and showed the near 200 percent increases in price for some modules, both DDR3 and DDR4. Looking at PCPartPicker's historic trend graphs, we can see that early-2018 was the peak for RAM pricing, but that many speeds and kits took many months to even approach a noticeable fall in price throughout the year, only really falling hard in 2019.
[...] "We don't see the current low price of memory being the new normal," Ben Miles of Chillblast said. "As profits fall in DRAM due to abundance, factories switch focus back to flash, so we can expect peak demand in Q4 to see rising prices once again." [Corsair's public relations manager Justin Ocbina] was a little more hesitant to forecast price rises, but he did suggest that other industries were beginning to pick up the slack for the slowing smartphone market. That could lead to rising prices at some point in the near future.
There's also DDR5 to consider. We've heard a lot about the potential capabilities of this next-generation memory for years, and that's something that Corsair will be switching its attention to in the years to come. Ocbina said that from the get-go, it is expected to dethrone DDR4 from its premium, performance spot. That gap will only widen as more kits are launched following the new standard's debut.
"Historic" low prices (that are about the same per GB as in 2012 or 2015)? Nothing DDR5 and a flood, power outage, or nitrogen leak can't fix.
See also: Micron's DRAM Update: More Capacity, Four More 10nm-Class Nodes, EUV, 64 GB DIMMs
Previously: Expect 20-30% Cheaper NAND in Late 2018
Weak Demand for DRAM Could Lead to Price Decreases in 2019
DRAM Prices Will Continue to Decline in Q1/Q2 2019
Huawei Blacklisting Predicted to Cause DRAM Prices to Drop 15%
Related: Manufacturing Memory Means Scribing Silicon in a Sea of Sensors
(Score: 2) by Freeman on Wednesday February 20 2019, @08:30PM (1 child)
Only recently have I been able to find Vega 56 and Vega 64 prices that are decent. Here's hoping prices for GPUs and DRAM continue to drop. While I'm not really looking to upgrade my current system, my wife could use a bit nicer setup. Ryzen 2400G + Motherboard + RAM + Case + PSU + Win10, won't be terribly cheap. Though, I assume, would be better CPU + GPU than what she currently has. Maybe I could convince her to drop the mandatory $120 Windows charge, though.
Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
(Score: 3, Interesting) by takyon on Wednesday February 20 2019, @09:14PM
I'd at least wait until "7nm" Navi is launched, now rumored for July. Prices could be decent, or older cards will drop.
https://wccftech.com/four-amd-navi-gpu-variants-leaked-rumored-for-july-2019-launch/ [wccftech.com]
https://wccftech.com/amd-ryzen-3000-cpus-x570-motherboards-and-radeon-navi-gpus-7nm-launch-rumor/ [wccftech.com]
[SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
(Score: 3, Insightful) by fustakrakich on Wednesday February 20 2019, @09:41PM (1 child)
Let's have a fire sale! Or wait for the monsoons [theregister.co.uk] if you're not in a hurry.
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 2) by takyon on Wednesday February 20 2019, @09:58PM
Dragon Aurora [soylentnews.org] portends disaster.
[SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
(Score: 2) by DannyB on Wednesday February 20 2019, @10:57PM
I will be able to get enough memory to write the biggest bestest Java Hello World program evar!
The lower I set my standards the more accomplishments I have.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday February 20 2019, @11:01PM (4 children)
I really need to add some memory to my IBM XT -- Bill did say that 640K should be enough for anyone...
- Rip Van Winkle
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday February 20 2019, @11:50PM (2 children)
and ~8GB should be enough for anyone right now.
Context maters.
(Score: 2) by takyon on Thursday February 21 2019, @12:03AM (1 child)
I can slam 8 GB. Time for 16 GB as the new minimum.
[SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
(Score: 3, Funny) by krishnoid on Thursday February 21 2019, @01:45AM
Yup, same here. Now to spec out how much memory everything other than Emacs will need.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 21 2019, @01:15AM
I don't mind having 640GB of ram cheap.
(Score: 0, Disagree) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday February 20 2019, @11:13PM
this has only been true since 1965