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posted by martyb on Friday April 12 2019, @08:17AM   Printer-friendly
from the no-more-roar dept.

Bloomberg:

The fact that both combustion engines and electric motors find themselves inside the same 18,000-person complex in Dingolfing, BMW’s largest in Europe, makes it a microcosm of a shift overtaking automakers the world over. A visitor can see that 625-horsepower engine—more than twice as powerful as the original from 1985, a luxury product relentlessly branded as “the ultimate driving machine”—then walk around the corner and see its puny electric replacement. You start thinking the better slogan might be “the ultimate combustion engine.” As in: last of its kind.

Deep within Dingolfing you can find the human representations of the end of a 100-year technological era. These workers have electric flashes stitched onto their blue factory smocks, and their jobs are focused on the BMW i3—the company’s only all-electric model—as well as a lineup of plug-in hybrids. There were just a few employees marked with electric patches in a remote corner of the factory back when BMW first started gearing up for electric vehicles. Today, electric works occupy about 10 percent of Dingolfing.

In just a few years BMW will sell a dozen battery-powered models. The transition is already proving painful and expensive. Last month, expecting a 10 percent slump in profit this year, the company said it would begin a 12 billion-euro efficiency campaign to pay for this battery-focused revamp. Starting in 2021, meanwhile, BMW plans to eliminate up to 50 percent of drivetrain options. About a third of its 133,000-strong workforce has been trained to handle production of electric vehicles—and it’s clear that all of today’s employees won’t be necessary for tomorrow’s tasks.

Soon BMW's engines will roar no more?


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  • (Score: 4, Insightful) by Rich on Friday April 12 2019, @09:57AM (5 children)

    by Rich (945) on Friday April 12 2019, @09:57AM (#828537) Journal

    Soon BMW's engines will roar no more?

    Roar? The BMW engines that properly roared are long out of production now. They can go as well all electric now.

    BMW F12/F13, 1.5l displacement, 1500 hp https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0w-pokZMoU4 [youtube.com]
    BMW 801, 41.8l displacement, 1700 hp https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PviNlOwihIw [youtube.com]

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 12 2019, @03:19PM (1 child)

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 12 2019, @03:19PM (#828630)

      I wonder how much Paul Allen would charge to outfit that with a remote unit so we could blast away at it with a 50-cal. Maybe the last surviving WW2 vet should man the trigger. I'd pay $20 admission just to watch.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 12 2019, @03:28PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 12 2019, @03:28PM (#828635)

        > .. so we could blast away at it with a 50-cal ..

        Where's the idiot mod when I want it?

        In case you don't get my point, WWII was over a long time ago and I'm very pleased to see that Paul Allen spent some of his fortune to preserve historical artifacts from that time.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 12 2019, @05:27PM (2 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 12 2019, @05:27PM (#828674)

      Is it really the twilight of combustion? My guess is that BMW (and others) are not going to be able to sell very many of these electric cars, at least not in the next ~5 years in N. America. The infrastructure isn't really ready (in most areas) for public charging and no one yet appears to have a good solution for home/overnight charging for all those people without their own garage.

      Tesla is an outlier, none of the big car companies are led by a charismatic figure like Elon. In the USA, it's been a long time since Lee Iacocca starred in Chrysler ads, plugging the K-cars. I don't recall anyone like that since. Maybe in Europe?

      We hear frequently that China will be the big market for electric cars, maybe we sit back and see how they handle the changeover?

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 12 2019, @05:53PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 12 2019, @05:53PM (#828688)

        More (same AC as parent):

        In India they have many small vehicles and at least one company has a solution to the charging problem, for people without a garage. I submitted this story, it's sitting in the queue,
            https://soylentnews.org/submit.pl?op=viewsub&subid=32893¬e=&title=Battery+swapping+for+EVs+--+in+India [soylentnews.org]

        Summary -- with a scooter or 3-wheel electric "rickshaw", the battery isn't very large. The driver pulls up to a self-serve kiosk and (by hand) swaps a discharged battery for a charged one. The photo shows a no-nonsense battery box and if this could become a standard it would go a long way toward e-vehicle acceptance. But only in markets where small, low speed vehicles are widely used.

      • (Score: 2) by Osamabobama on Friday April 12 2019, @10:59PM

        by Osamabobama (5842) on Friday April 12 2019, @10:59PM (#828780)

        none of the big car companies are led by a charismatic figure like Elon.

        Recent news about the former Renault/Nissan chief Carlos Ghosn suggested that he was a popular figure: Carlos Ghosn - In the Media [wikipedia.org]

        Never mind that nasty business about getting arrested...

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        Appended to the end of comments you post. Max: 120 chars.
  • (Score: 3, Insightful) by bradley13 on Friday April 12 2019, @10:38AM (10 children)

    by bradley13 (3053) on Friday April 12 2019, @10:38AM (#828540) Homepage Journal

    I was just discussing this with my wife this morning. Even she - a non-engineering type - sees the problem: where, exactly, is all of the electricity supposed to come from?

    Germany is turning itself into a net importer of electricity, by closing down their nuclear power plants. Meaning that a goodly portion of the electricity for these cars will come from imported electricity, generated largely by fossil fuels - including some lovely coal-powered plants in Eastern Europe. Somehow the politicians never talk about problems like that, and neither to the eco-activists.

    --
    Everyone is somebody else's weirdo.
    • (Score: 3, Informative) by pkrasimirov on Friday April 12 2019, @10:49AM (3 children)

      by pkrasimirov (3358) Subscriber Badge on Friday April 12 2019, @10:49AM (#828541)
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 12 2019, @11:12AM

        by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 12 2019, @11:12AM (#828546)

        So it is back to the takeover method then, we will soon realize that current solar output already has a role in our ecosystem. It may not be "free" energy for us to do as we wish.

      • (Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 12 2019, @12:47PM (1 child)

        by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 12 2019, @12:47PM (#828568)

        From that:

        > As of 2017, renewable sources account for 38% of the net electricity production.

        Also Bradley: did you and your wife do back of the envelope math for household energy consumption? Don't you think - if you did - that in Germany, heating living spaces might be a more serious concern than powering transportation?

        Especially given Germany has an extremely well developed rail system, so for freight there's a dramatically lower cost per pound compared to human loads. Citation again wikipedia sorry:

        > In the case of freight, CSX ran an advertisement campaign in 2013 claiming that their freight trains move "a ton of freight 436 miles on a gallon of fuel", whereas some sources claim trucks move a ton of freight about 130 miles per gallon of fuel, indicating trains are more efficient overall.

        this time from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolling_resistance#Comparing_rolling_resistance_of_highway_vehicles_and_trains [wikipedia.org]

        • (Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday April 13 2019, @03:51AM

          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Saturday April 13 2019, @03:51AM (#828862) Journal

          Don't you think - if you did - that in Germany, heating living spaces might be a more serious concern than powering transportation?

          Why should they think that? Why should that be relevant? Keep in mind that Germany can heat living spaces with Russian natural gas. They don't need electricity from Polish coal. But one doesn't have the same relative dodge with electric cars.

    • (Score: 4, Informative) by c0lo on Friday April 12 2019, @11:24AM

      by c0lo (156) Subscriber Badge on Friday April 12 2019, @11:24AM (#828547) Journal

      Meaning that a goodly portion of the electricity for these cars will come from imported electricity, generated largely by fossil fuels

      France [wikipedia.org] - one of the biggest exporter of energy, gets 70%+ from nuclear power

      --
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
    • (Score: 2) by looorg on Friday April 12 2019, @01:25PM

      by looorg (578) on Friday April 12 2019, @01:25PM (#828577)

      Russian natural gas. Next question.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_gas_pipelines#From_Russia [wikipedia.org]

    • (Score: 2) by fritsd on Friday April 12 2019, @03:48PM (1 child)

      by fritsd (4586) on Friday April 12 2019, @03:48PM (#828645) Journal

      Germany's trick is: start early.

      Their "Energiewende" [wikipedia.org] study and planning phase took off in 1980.

      Germany has made significant progress on its GHG emissions reduction target, achieving a 27% decrease between 1990 and 2014. However the country will need to maintain an average GHG emissions abatement rate of 3.5% per year to reach its Energiewende goal, equal to the maximum historical value thus far.

      It's a fascinating Wiki article, actually.

      • (Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday April 13 2019, @04:14AM

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Saturday April 13 2019, @04:14AM (#828864) Journal
        Doesn't sound like it includes either fossil fuel electricity imports or the actual GHG emissions [wikipedia.org] for Germany (22% decrease 1990 to 2017). What's bizarre is despite the difficulty of achieving the paltry amount they managed, they're planning extremely ambitious reductions with almost complete elimination by 2050. I think it'll be educational for anyone paying attention.
    • (Score: 2) by tibman on Friday April 12 2019, @09:42PM (1 child)

      by tibman (134) Subscriber Badge on Friday April 12 2019, @09:42PM (#828747)

      In Germany i noticed that nearly half of all the houses had some solar panels on them already. That was a few years ago. They are pretty serious on an individual level.

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      • (Score: 3, Touché) by deimtee on Saturday April 13 2019, @12:47AM

        by deimtee (3272) on Saturday April 13 2019, @12:47AM (#828809) Journal

        They are pretty serious on an individual level.

        They're Germans. They are pretty serious on a individual level, on a state level, on a national level, on a planetary level, and if they ever get there, probably on an interstellar level.

        --
        If you cough while drinking cheap red wine it really cleans out your sinuses.
  • (Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 12 2019, @12:44PM (4 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 12 2019, @12:44PM (#828566)

    i dont think ICEs will disappear completly.
    it's just that they wont be mated to round rolling rubber (ex gearbox) directly anymore.
    i see them as more or less standalone machines where efficiency can be improved another few percent
    because they run at constant (and optimum) speeds and where the dynamo/generator is integrated
    and the magnetic and electrical field helps to enhance the aerodynamic flow of the hot combustion gases.
    they will be understood as "refillable" batteries where you put gasoline in and get a guareanteed electrical output ... which can then be connected to all kinds of things ... moving or non moving...
    it's just that they will not provide locomotion directly but become a source of electricity instead.

    • (Score: 5, Insightful) by Dr Spin on Friday April 12 2019, @02:58PM (3 children)

      by Dr Spin (5239) on Friday April 12 2019, @02:58PM (#828624)

      i dont think ICEs will disappear completely.

      Probably not. Here in the UK - a very small, densely populated country (you can tell how dense the population is - they voted for Brexit), 30% of electricity generated is lost in the transmission lines. Another 10% would be lost charging the car batteries,.

      If a significant fraction of traffic is electric, the result is going to be a massive increase in demand on the network - which is not easy to expand, and a massive demand for raw energy.

      A more sensible option than distributing it over the grid would be using the gas network and locally generating at point of need. Small generators are about 10% less efficient than big ones - which beats the pants of 40% losses. You are welcome to use solar and wind power - but use it to make gas.

      Or, use (human and animal) waste to make bio-diesel, and fix the problem of particulates with a half-decent filter, and the NOx problem by not running the engines so dammed hot. The mania for hot engines to reduce CO2 is what led to NOx.

      Besides which, according to the actual data, pollution in the UK is 50% of what it was in 1970, despite having 10 times the number of vehicles. There is a ton of fake news out there.

      --
      Warning: Opening your mouth may invalidate your brain!
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 12 2019, @05:28PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 12 2019, @05:28PM (#828677)

        Why use solar and wind to make gas? Locally generated solar/wind wouldn't suffer the large transmission losses, as long as you can generate it when/where the cars are charging. (ie the work/daytime parking lot more than the home/overnight one.)

      • (Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 12 2019, @08:59PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Friday April 12 2019, @08:59PM (#828741)

        https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201415/cmselect/cmenergy/386/38607.html [parliament.uk]

        44. Energy is lost during transportation from production to consumption. Electricity distribution losses on average account for 8% of transported volumes, and vary between 3.1% to 10% for the individual DNOs.

        Also 10% on top of 30% is 37%, not 40%. 1 - ((1 - 0.1) * (1 - 0.3)) = 1 - (0.9 * 0.7) = 1 - 0.63 = 0.37.

        Yep, very dense spin, Doctor.

      • (Score: 2) by Whoever on Saturday April 13 2019, @02:23AM

        by Whoever (4524) on Saturday April 13 2019, @02:23AM (#828847) Journal

        Probably not. Here in the UK - a very small, densely populated country (you can tell how dense the population is - they voted for Brexit), 30% of electricity generated is lost in the transmission lines.
        ...
        If a significant fraction of traffic is electric, the result is going to be a massive increase in demand on the network - which is not easy to expand,
        ...
        There is a ton of fake news out there.

        .... including in your post.

        As the AC posted, your figure for transmission losses is absurdly exaggerated.

        Since most EV charging occurs at night, when electricity demand is low, any increase in peak demand on the network is likely to be small. Yes, overall, more electricity will be used, but peak load probably won't increase much, if at all.

        You propose a new infrastructure for mass adoption of bio-diesel in cars. It would probably be more efficient to use the bio-diesel in generators and use that electricity to power electric vehicles, which are much more efficient than ICE vehicles.

  • (Score: 1) by Coward, Anonymous on Friday April 12 2019, @07:33PM (1 child)

    by Coward, Anonymous (7017) on Friday April 12 2019, @07:33PM (#828721) Journal

    In just a few years BMW will sell a dozen battery-powered models.

    Believe it when it happens. These companies are experts at manipulating people.

    • (Score: 2) by bob_super on Saturday April 13 2019, @12:37AM

      by bob_super (1357) on Saturday April 13 2019, @12:37AM (#828806)

      Gas prices are going up, so the optimistic projections are becoming more realistic ... for now.

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