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posted by Fnord666 on Monday June 10 2019, @10:03AM   Printer-friendly
from the good-news dept.

Submitted via IRC for SoyCow4463

DRAMeXchange, tech market intelligence firm TrendForce's memeory and storage branch, today added yet another entry to the list of industries expected to be negatively affected by tension between the U.S. and China. The research firm announced that it expects Huawei's blacklisting by the U.S. government to contribute to a DRAM price drop of up to 15% in the third quarter.

"As ripples from the U.S. ban continue to spread, Huawei's shipments of smartphone and server products are feared to face heavy obstacles for the next two to three quarters , impacting peak-season-demand for DRAM products 2H and the time of price precipitation," DRAMeXchange said.

[...] In its report, DRAMeXchange noted its earlier prediction that the likeliness of DRAM prices falling under suppliers' "fully-loaded costs" would be "extremely slim under the premises that the competition only consisted of three giants, and that DRAM production processes were nearing physical limits." The analyst is now changing its stance.

"Yet, a heated U.S.-China trade war may send demand in the second half of this year into quick-freeze, with the increasingly looming uncertainty compelling datacenters to make reductions to capex. Fragile DRAM suppliers may have to admit current inventory casualties on the books by the end of this year, and officially modify their financial statements to report: 'Loss,'" DRAMeXchange said.

Source: https://www.tomshardware.com/news/dram-memory-market-huawei-impact-us-china,39588.html


Original Submission

Related Stories

2019: DRAM Cheaper... For Now 12 comments

RAM has never been cheaper, but are the historic prices here to stay?

RAM prices are at historic lows. But it hasn't always been that way. If you upgraded your PC's memory in 2018, you might be kicking yourself right now. This writer certainly is. I upgraded from an old, faithful 16GB of 1,600MHz DDR3 to a 16GB kit of Corsair Vengeance RGB 3,000MHz DDR4. It cost me the equivalent of $200 at the time. That same kit today is just $75. What the hell happened? As of mid-2019, prices have finally gotten under control and are currently at an all-time low, making this a great time to upgrade. But is it here to stay?

[...] Ben Miles, managing director of award-winning British system builder Chillblast, explained that "more and more memory foundries [are focusing] on flash type memory to feed the insatiable smart device and mobile phone industries. Turning a DRAM factory into a flash factory or vice versa takes many weeks, so when companies have chosen their path, its[sic] non-trivial to turn it back. When demand outstrips supply, module vendors are forced to stockpile DRAM chips and offer more money to secure stock, driving up prices."

All of this led to a huge increase in RAM prices between 2016 and 2018. Gamers Nexus put together an in-depth report on this at the start of 2018 and showed the near 200 percent increases in price for some modules, both DDR3 and DDR4. Looking at PCPartPicker's historic trend graphs, we can see that early-2018 was the peak for RAM pricing, but that many speeds and kits took many months to even approach a noticeable fall in price throughout the year, only really falling hard in 2019.

[...] "We don't see the current low price of memory being the new normal," Ben Miles of Chillblast said. "As profits fall in DRAM due to abundance, factories switch focus back to flash, so we can expect peak demand in Q4 to see rising prices once again." [Corsair's public relations manager Justin Ocbina] was a little more hesitant to forecast price rises, but he did suggest that other industries were beginning to pick up the slack for the slowing smartphone market. That could lead to rising prices at some point in the near future.

There's also DDR5 to consider. We've heard a lot about the potential capabilities of this next-generation memory for years, and that's something that Corsair will be switching its attention to in the years to come. Ocbina said that from the get-go, it is expected to dethrone DDR4 from its premium, performance spot. That gap will only widen as more kits are launched following the new standard's debut.

"Historic" low prices (that are about the same per GB as in 2012 or 2015)? Nothing DDR5 and a flood, power outage, or nitrogen leak can't fix.

See also: Micron's DRAM Update: More Capacity, Four More 10nm-Class Nodes, EUV, 64 GB DIMMs

Previously: Expect 20-30% Cheaper NAND in Late 2018
Weak Demand for DRAM Could Lead to Price Decreases in 2019
DRAM Prices Will Continue to Decline in Q1/Q2 2019
Huawei Blacklisting Predicted to Cause DRAM Prices to Drop 15%

Related: Manufacturing Memory Means Scribing Silicon in a Sea of Sensors


Original Submission

Huawei Sues FCC to Stop Ban on Huawei Gear in US-Funded Networks 6 comments

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/12/huawei-sues-fcc-to-stop-ban-on-huawei-gear-in-us-funded-

Huawei has sued the Federal Communications Commission over the agency's order that bans Huawei equipment in certain government-funded telecom projects.

[...] The FCC voted unanimously on November 22 to ban Huawei and ZTE equipment in projects paid for by the commission's Universal Service Fund (USF). The order will affect many small telecom providers that rely on the companies' network gear.

[...] "The US government has never presented real evidence to show that Huawei is a national security threat," Song said. "That's because this evidence does not exist. When pushed for facts, they respond that 'disclosing evidence might also undermine US national security.' This is complete nonsense."

[...] "We've built networks in places where other vendors would not go. They were too remote, or the terrain was difficult, or there just wasn't a big enough population," he said. "In the US, we sell equipment to 40 small wireless and wireline operators. They connect schools, hospitals, farms, homes, community colleges, and emergency services."

Hoftstra University law professor Julian Ku said that "even a small [Huawei] victory in the case, one that makes the FCC go and start the process over again, would be a huge victory for them," according to The New York Times. But it may be a difficult case for Huawei to win because US courts usually give federal agencies "a tremendous amount of deference," Ku said.

Previously:


Original Submission

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  • (Score: 2) by stretch611 on Monday June 10 2019, @10:53AM (6 children)

    by stretch611 (6199) on Monday June 10 2019, @10:53AM (#853610)

    While their may be a 15% drop in prices for DRAM, the 25% additional tariff will still cause it to go up in price for the consumer.

    --
    Now with 5 covid vaccine shots/boosters altering my DNA :P
    • (Score: 3, Touché) by takyon on Monday June 10 2019, @10:55AM (4 children)

      by takyon (881) <takyonNO@SPAMsoylentnews.org> on Monday June 10 2019, @10:55AM (#853611) Journal

      Not if you get your system from Taiwan.

      --
      [SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
      • (Score: 3, Funny) by stretch611 on Monday June 10 2019, @11:06AM (1 child)

        by stretch611 (6199) on Monday June 10 2019, @11:06AM (#853617)

        why are you always adding logic to my snarky comments? =)

        --
        Now with 5 covid vaccine shots/boosters altering my DNA :P
        • (Score: 2) by istartedi on Monday June 10 2019, @05:02PM

          by istartedi (123) on Monday June 10 2019, @05:02PM (#853754) Journal

          With all that cheap memory, there's plenty of room for additional logic and snarky comments.

          --
          Appended to the end of comments you post. Max: 120 chars.
      • (Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Monday June 10 2019, @05:08PM (1 child)

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday June 10 2019, @05:08PM (#853756)

        Wikipedia [wikipedia.org] only lists three current DRAM manufacturers: Micron (US), Samsung (SK) and Hynix (SK).

        • (Score: 2) by takyon on Monday June 10 2019, @05:26PM

          by takyon (881) <takyonNO@SPAMsoylentnews.org> on Monday June 10 2019, @05:26PM (#853762) Journal

          Most consumers buy RAM already installed in a system. ASUS, Acer, TSMC, etc. are based in Taiwan. U.S./South Korea business is obviously not affected* by dueling tariffs. etc. etc. etc.

          *Not in the same way as U.S./China business.

          --
          [SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
    • (Score: 2, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Monday June 10 2019, @11:51AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday June 10 2019, @11:51AM (#853638)

      That isn't how it works. The Chinese company just needs to sell to a middleman in another country who then sells to the US. That 15% tariff is an upper bound on the price increase you will see.

      People need to stop reading the fake news. These journalists have zero clue about how anything works and are just paid to manipulate you so someone can make money from your bad decisions.

      Look at how the media has given Trump the power to pump the stock market at any moment by saying "trade war over", etc. They repeat BS to you over and over like "tariffs will make prices go up x amount which is bad for stocks", "stocks are lower than they would be if not for Trump", etc.

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gell-Mann_amnesia_effect [wikipedia.org]

  • (Score: 1, Troll) by realDonaldTrump on Monday June 10 2019, @03:22PM

    by realDonaldTrump (6614) on Monday June 10 2019, @03:22PM (#853719) Homepage Journal

    DRAMS, for a long time is something almost nobody could afford. Ever since Ronnie Reagan put MAJOR RESTRICTIONS on them. No more -- because of me. Something nobody thought would happen -- it's happening. You're welcome. Enjoy you're beautiful, and very affordable DRAMS, folks!!!

  • (Score: 2) by iWantToKeepAnon on Friday June 28 2019, @06:33PM

    by iWantToKeepAnon (686) on Friday June 28 2019, @06:33PM (#861041) Homepage Journal
    I'm cheap, I know it. :) Is this going to scare people into dumping their hardware, and possibly get good deals on ebay/amazon? Can LineageOS be installed (a quick google search suggests at least some models can)?
    --
    "Happy families are all alike; every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way." -- Anna Karenina by Leo Tolstoy
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