Panic-stricken headlines claiming Earth will be slammed by an asteroid on September 9 this year should be ignored, the European Space Agency (ESA) assures us.
The supposedly planet-threatening 100-foot-(30-metre)-diameter space rock, dubbed 2006 QV89, was discovered in August 2006. Following observations over ten days, astronomers predicted it had a 1-in-7,000 chance of crashing into our home world 13 years later in September 2019.
With that date looming, experts at ESA and the European Southern Observatory (ESO) decided to take another look at 2006 QV89 this month, and used the ESO’s Very Large Telescope (VLT), a ground-based observatory in the Atacama desert in Chile, to peer through space at the hurtling rock.
And guess what: they couldn’t find the bloody thing. Tracking asteroids is surprisingly tricky, you know, especially when they’re newly discovered and their orbit paths are not yet confirmed, as is the case of QV89. It's hard to pinpoint where they are in the vast obsidian void, especially more than a decade after they are first seen. Still, as we'll explain in a minute, the boffins persisted in their search because 2006 QV89 is a fairly worrying size.
[...] Since near-Earth asteroid QV89 was observed for just ten days 13 years ago – the same year Twitter was created and no-one outside Apple had yet heard of the iPhone – you can forgive the astronomers for being unable to find the thing in their telescopes this month. However, they didn't give up: by simulating the orbital mechanics of 2006 QV89, they identified the area of space the asteroid would have to travel through if it was to have a serious chance of hitting Earth. And nothing at all was seen in that region: so, no asteroid in that area means no real chance of it hitting our planet. Fingers crossed. [...]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 21 2019, @10:05PM (3 children)
I knew something like this would come to pass. Shit always happens.
(Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 21 2019, @10:27PM
It's all lies. They publicly announced it isn't there to prevent mass hysteria, when in fact it's going to plummet at about mach 47 into Rio de Janeiro. Then... all hell will break loose with the large alien arachnids that sent it here.
(Score: 2) by driverless on Monday July 22 2019, @01:28AM (1 child)
Meh, we've already been hit by Asteroid TRMP-2016, this one would be a doddle in comparison.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 22 2019, @01:45PM
Then pray for both to annihilate each other.
(Score: 2) by Immerman on Sunday July 21 2019, @10:45PM (4 children)
And this is the current state of our asteroid-impact early warning system. We identified an asteroid with an incredibly high (by asteroid standards) chance of hitting Earth, and didn't bother to look at it again to better determine it's orbit at any point in the intervening 13 years? Not until it's potential impact was only months away, and it would be far too late to do anything anyway?
Why exactly are we even bothering to talk about how to deflect asteroids if we can't even bother to keep tabs on things that we know might hit us until it would be way to late to do anything anyway? I mean sure, at 30m it (probably) wouldn't do much damage unless we got really unlucky, but it's still exactly the sort of thing we're talking about getting ready for.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 21 2019, @10:57PM (3 children)
Asteroids are a lot like security vulnerabilities. Everybody wants to find them, and possibly even name them, but after that there's no novelty or marketability left so the researchers move on.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 21 2019, @11:24PM (1 child)
It is like anything, the government is not going to be there to help you when you need it. They'll all flee to their underground bunkers and keep you in the dark.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 22 2019, @12:57AM
The joke is going to be on them. We're stuffing all the soybeans, corn, etc that China isn't buying anymore into those underground bunkers.
(Score: 1) by Coward, Anonymous on Monday July 22 2019, @04:48AM
That's too pessimistic. To predict a large impact far in advance would be a huge achievement. The fact that no large asteroids (> 1 km) seem to be on a collision course is good news.
The fact that scientists are having trouble keeping track of the asteroids with significant impact probability just means those asteroids are small, which is a good thing.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 21 2019, @11:10PM (3 children)
How do you conclude the earth isn't going to be hit from this? It reminds me of losing sight of a ball in the sun then getting smacked in the head.
(Score: 2) by toddestan on Monday July 22 2019, @03:00AM (1 child)
Did you try reading the rest of the summary?
"However, they didn't give up: by simulating the orbital mechanics of 2006 QV89, they identified the area of space the asteroid would have to travel through if it was to have a serious chance of hitting Earth. And nothing at all was seen in that region: so, no asteroid in that area means no real chance of it hitting our planet."
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 22 2019, @12:01PM
And why should we trust simulations of the orbital mechanics that didn't let them find the asteroid?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 22 2019, @03:10AM
Head-up-the-ass syndrome, typical for millennial sciency journos. Can't see a thing there, so it's safe.
(Score: 2) by Gaaark on Sunday July 21 2019, @11:22PM
It'll be coming at us straight out of the sun.
Duck!
--- Please remind me if I haven't been civil to you: I'm channeling MDC. ---Gaaark 2.0 ---
(Score: 1) by RandomFactor on Sunday July 21 2019, @11:33PM (3 children)
"Bad News"
Isn't this sort of the opposite of bad news?
В «Правде» нет известий, в «Известиях» нет правды
(Score: 3, Funny) by bzipitidoo on Sunday July 21 2019, @11:40PM (1 child)
Bad news for the Martians. Earth obstructs their view of Venus, you know.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 22 2019, @03:43AM
Well, we should blow them up cause I can't see Uranus from here
(Score: 2, Informative) by Only_Mortal on Monday July 22 2019, @11:33AM
It's supposed to be humour from El Reg. I've lost interest in the site as it's become the slashdot of the UK.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 22 2019, @03:48AM (2 children)
so, no sudden orgies breaking out then? :(
(Score: 2) by Alfred on Monday July 22 2019, @02:50PM (1 child)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 22 2019, @11:13PM
https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Film/SeekingAFriendForTheEndOfTheWorld [tvtropes.org]
When the world is going to end in a few weeks anyone starts looking good.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 22 2019, @01:08PM (2 children)
Wait a sec.
Every asteroid/meteor/whatever from space disaster movie is JUST LIKE THIS.
"There's nothing to worry about". Why? Because the powers that be, can't afford to have chaos prior to the hit! They're stocking supplies, expanding underground bunkers, all of this blather.
I mean, they "lost" it? "Don't worry"?! Come on!
Meanwhile, food stores, ammunition and ordinance, fuel and everything else is being stocked! Or ships are being built! Or, something!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 22 2019, @01:12PM (1 child)
I see many statements to the similar above. But really, truly, if it was going to hit.. can you imagine them saying "We're all fucked!"
I don't know about you, but I'd prefer to not spend the next 2 months with insanity ruling the land. Many people can take this sort of thing calmly, but there is a certain percentage of society that's already right on the brink of fuck all madness.
And even if you take it well, are you going to want to go to work every day, for the last 2 months of your life?
Supply chains would break down, food would be a problem in cities, and anarchy would emerge just because people wanted to eat.
(Score: 2) by takyon on Monday July 22 2019, @01:32PM
It's pretty clear at this point that humanity is not going to be wiped out by a large asteroid within the next century or three. We may see a worse-than-Chelyabinsk incident that could kill thousands, but within the next decade or two we will be able to detect that kind of event in advance, possibly allowing enough time for city-wide evacuations. Then over the next century, we will see asteroid mining as an economic activity and even better asteroid detection. We'll deflect potential impactors and make a profit off of them at the same time.
[SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 22 2019, @01:54PM (2 children)
30-metre is now planet-threatening? Chelyabinsk meteor was estimated to be 20m and Tunguska about 150.
Certainly you don't want this thing to fall close to any populated area but it's not even close to a city killer and much less a planet-threatening asteroid.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 22 2019, @05:12PM (1 child)
Well, that entirely depends on the velocity. Just like a very small bullet can kill you if it is accelerated to the speed of sound.
No, I don't know if this asteroid is fast enough to be planet-threatening. My point just is, size is not all that matters.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 22 2019, @07:12PM
In the solar system the typical relative velocity of these objects with Earth is around 20km/s and up to 60km/s for front collisions of objects at perihelion falling from the Oort cloud. Sungrazers could go up to 570 km/s.
So, no, impact velocity is not a significant factor to upgrade a 30 meter object to such level of threat.
Of course would it be an extra-solar object then the upper asymptotic bound is the speed of light, and that would be a bad bad day but you won't see it coming anyway.