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posted by martyb on Monday January 27 2020, @08:56AM   Printer-friendly
from the stay-aware-and-wash-your-hands dept.

China Battles Coronavirus Outbreak: All the Latest Updates:

The virus thought to have originated in a Wuhan food market continues to spread as China steps up containment efforts.

[...] China is extending the Lunar New Year holiday for three days and enforcing strict containment measures in an attempt to curb the spread of a new coronavirus that has killed 80 people and infected at more than 2,700, most of them in the central province of Hubei where the virus first emerged.

The holiday season was due to end on Friday but will now be extended until February 2.

More than 56 million people in almost 20 cities, including the Hubei capital of Wuhan, have been affected by travel restrictions, introduced amid fears the transmission rate will balloon as hundreds of millions of Chinese travel during the Lunar New Year celebrations.

[...] Health authorities around the world are taking action to prevent a pandemic as more countries report cases. Confirmed cases have so far been announced in several Asiancountries, Europe and North America.

[...] The World Health Organization (WHO) has acknowledged the respiratory illness, which has been traced to the city of Wuhan, is an emergency in China but the organisation said on Thursday it was too early to declare the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.

Previously:


Original Submission

Related Stories

China Reports 3rd Death, Nearly 140 New Cases of Coronavirus 5 comments

China reports 3rd death, nearly 140 new cases of coronavirus:

China reported on Monday its third death from a mysterious new virus and nearly 140 fresh cases as the disease spread to other parts of the country, including Beijing, raising concerns about more infections as millions begin trips for the Lunar New Year.

Medical experts are still struggling to understand the new strain of coronavirus but its connection with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome has caused alarm. SARS originated in southern China in 2002 before spreading to Hong Kong and elsewhere in the world infecting thousands and leaving more than 800 people dead.

Coronaviruses usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses, such as the common cold, but can also affect the lower-respiratory tract, causing pneumonia or bronchitis.

[...] In Wuhan, the city in central China where the new strain first emerged, 136 new cases were found over the weekend the local health commission said, without giving details about the person who died.

[...] A total of 201 people have now been diagnosed with the virus in China. In Wuhan, 170 people are still being treated in hospital, including nine in critical condition, the city health commission said.

Wuhan is a city of 11 million inhabitants that serves as a major transport hub, including during the annual Lunar New Year holiday when hundreds of millions of Chinese people travel across the country to visit family.


Original Submission

China Confirms Human-To-Human Transmission of New Coronavirus; CDC Confirms First US Case 42 comments

China confirms human-to-human transmission of new coronavirus:

Human-to-human transmission of a new coronavirus strain has been confirmed in China, fueling fears of a major outbreak of the SARS-like virus as millions travel for the Lunar New Year holiday.

Zhong Nanshan, head of the National Health Commission, said on Monday patients may have contracted the new virus without having visited the central city of Wuhan where it was discovered before spreading across China and reaching three other Asian nations.

"Currently, it can be said it is affirmative that there is the phenomenon of human-to-human transmission," he said in an interview with China's CCTV state broadcaster.

Zhong said two people in Guangdong province in southern China caught the disease from family members who had visited Wuhan.

He added that 14 medical personnel helping with coronavirus patients have also been infected.

Human-to-human transmission could make the virus spread more quickly and widely.

CDC Confirms First US Case of New Coronavirus

Public health officials have confirmed the first U.S. case of a mysterious coronavirus that has already killed at least six people and sickened hundreds of others in China, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Tuesday.

A male traveler from China has been diagnosed in Snohomish County, Washington State with the Wuhan coronavirus, according to the CDC.

Officials said the sick male, in his 30s, is “very healthy.” He is currently being isolated at a medical center in the state “out of caution” and “poses little risk” to the public, they said. The CDC said the male reached out to local health authorities on Jan. 15 once he started experiencing pneumonia-like symptoms.

Previously:
China Reports 3rd Death, Nearly 140 New Cases of Coronavirus

Original Submission

Coronavirus: Millions Quarantined in Wuhan City 36 comments

Chinese Authorities Begin Quarantine Of Wuhan City As Coronavirus Cases Multiply:

Wuhan's public health authorities say they are in a "state of war" as they quarantine the Chinese city in an attempt to halt the spread of a never-before-seen strain of coronavirus. "Strictly implement emergency response requirements, enter into a state of war and implement wartime measures to resolutely curb the spread of this epidemic," urged a committee of Wuhan's top officials. "Homes must be segregated, neighbors must be watched."

Later Thursday, health officials from the World Health Organization decided not to declare the outbreak an international health emergency. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that after two days of meetings in Geneva with the organization's Emergency Committee, the group was divided. "Make no mistake. This is an emergency in China, but it has not yet become a global health emergency," Tedros said. "It may yet become one." The WHO is not recommending any international restrictions on trade or travel, but does recommend exit screenings at airports.

Beginning at 10 a.m. local time (9 p.m. Wednesday ET), authorities in Wuhan, about 500 miles west of Shanghai, started sealing off public transportation, including its metro system, airport, train station and long-haul bus hubs. Livestreamed videos from the city show soldiers wearing face masks barricading the entrances to the city's train station Thursday morning to prevent passengers from entering and leaving the city.

Wuhan, China, is scrambling to build a hospital in just 6 days to treat coronavirus patients as its health system gets overwhelmed:

Plague Inc. Maker: Don't use our Game for Coronavirus Modeling 20 comments

Plague Inc. maker: Don't use our game for coronavirus modeling:

Interest in the continued spread of the coronavirus has had an unintended side effect for UK-based Ndemic Creations, makers of Plague Inc. The eight-year-old game—which asks players to shepherd a worldwide pandemic so it can destroy all of humanity—has seen a spike in popularity in recent weeks, becoming the most-downloaded iPhone app in China on January 21 and in the United States on January 23, according to tracking firm App Annie.

The surge in interest has led Ndemic to issue a statement urging players not to rely on the app for information on staying safe from the coronavirus' current spread. "Please remember that Plague Inc. is a game, not a scientific model and that the currentcoronavirus outbreak is a very real situation which is impacting a huge number of people," the statement reads, in part. "We would always recommend that players get their information directly from local and global health authorities."

[...] Ndemic points players to the WHO for up-to-date information about the coronavirus. The disease now has more than 2,800 reported cases worldwide and has led to at least 80 deaths.

Interesting educational tool: CDC: Solve The Outbreak

Previously:
China Battles Coronavirus Outbreak: All the Latest Updates
Coronavirus: Millions Quarantined in Wuhan City
China Confirms Human-To-Human Transmission of New Coronavirus; CDC Confirms First US Case
China Reports 3rd Death, Nearly 140 New Cases of Coronavirus


Original Submission

Coronavirus Declared a Global Health Emergency by World Health Organization 84 comments

Coronavirus declared global health emergency by WHO

The new coronavirus has been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organization, as the outbreak continues to spread outside China.

"The main reason for this declaration is not what is happening in China but what is happening in other countries," said WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

The concern is that it could spread to countries with weaker health systems.

1st Person-To-Person Spread Of Coronavirus Has Occurred In U.S., CDC Says

Coronavirus: US reports first person-to-person transmission

Chicago health officials have reported the first US case of human-to-human transmission of the deadly coronavirus.

The new patient is the spouse of a Chicago woman who carried the infection back from Wuhan, China, the US Centers for Disease Control said on Thursday.

The discovery marks the second report of the virus in Illinois and the sixth confirmed case in the US.

This paper provides early estimates of 2019-nCoV epidemiological parameters: Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions (open, DOI: 10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549) (DX)

Used model does not offer much grounds for optimism.

Previously:


Original Submission #1Original Submission #2Original Submission #3

2019-nCoV Coronavirus Story Roundup 75 comments

Multiple Soylentils have submitted stories regarding the 2019-nCoV coronavirus which is believed to have originated in the city of Wuhan, China in December 2019. Rather than have a smattering of stories appear on the site, they have been gathered here in one story. Read on if you are interested; otherwise another story will be along presently.

Coronavirus Roundup (Feb. 17) 65 comments

This story is a roundup of several virus stories that were submitted over the past few days. This is a changing story, so some of what is posted below may have changed since the time of their originally being published.

What's in a name? One significant change is what the names are for everything. There is the question of what to call the actual virus and then what to call it when someone is infected.

Virus: The virus by itself is now officially referred to as SARS-CoV-2 (Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2). It was formerly known as 2019-nCoV (2019 novel coronavirus).

Disease: Those who have been infected by this virus are said to have a disease. The name of the disease is coronavirus disease (COVID-19) which is also known as 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease.

More details are available on Wikipedia.

The six submitted stories are presented below.

NIH Official Says Coronavirus 'on the Verge' of Becoming Global Pandemic Unless Containment Improves

NIH official says coronavirus 'on the verge' of becoming global pandemic unless containment becomes 'more successful':

Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CBS's "Face The Nation" that multiple person-to-person transmissions need to occur in multiple countries in order to reach the pandemic threshold.

[...] "Technically speaking, the [World Health Organization] wouldn't be calling this a global pandemic. But it certainly is on the verge of that happening reasonably soon unless containment is more successful than it is right now," he said.

CoronaVirus (SARS-CoV-2) Roundup 2020-03-12 93 comments

Even though it has only been a short while since our last round-up there are 22 separate stories merged into this round-up. Many report duplicate news but, nevertheless, we have tried to distill the important elements of each submission.

Firstly, there is some confusion regarding the actual names that are reported for the virus, the disease that it causes, and names frequently seen in media reporting. From https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0695-z:

The present outbreak of a coronavirus-associated acute respiratory disease called coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) is the third documented spillover of an animal coronavirus to humans in only two decades that has resulted in a major epidemic. The Coronaviridae Study Group (CSG) of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, which is responsible for developing the classification of viruses and taxon nomenclature of the family Coronaviridae, has assessed the placement of the human pathogen, tentatively named 2019-nCoV, within the Coronaviridae. Based on phylogeny, taxonomy and established practice, the CSG recognizes this virus as forming a sister clade to the prototype human and bat severe acute respiratory syndrome coronaviruses (SARS-CoVs) of the species Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus, and designates it as SARS-CoV-2.

In order to facilitate communication, the CSG proposes to use the following naming convention for individual isolates: SARS-CoV-2/host/location/isolate/date. While the full spectrum of clinical manifestations associated with SARS-CoV-2 infections in humans remains to be determined, the independent zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 highlights the need for studying viruses at the species level to complement research focused on individual pathogenic viruses of immediate significance. This will improve our understanding of virus–host interactions in an ever-changing environment and enhance our preparedness for future outbreaks.

There is much more information at the link provided.

Secondly, as this is a fusion of stories received over the last week or so take all quoted figures of casualties as possibly out-of-date. At the time of merging these stories (12 Mar 20) there have been 127,863 confirmed cases world-wide resulting in 4,717 deaths. 68,309 people have already recovered with the remainder either in self-imposed or advisory isolation, in basic hospital care and a relatively small number in critical care. The pandemic has affected 116 countries/regions. Source: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 - a graphical display produced by Johns Hopkins University (JHU).

Many countries have taken emergency measures to restrict travel or large gatherings of people. As this is a very fluid situation we suggest you refer to the media of any specific country in which you have an interest. President Trump has banned transatlantic air travel from countries in mainland Europe to the USA from Friday 2020-03-13 at 23:59 (no timezone stated) for a period initially of 30 days, and air travel within Europe is also significantly disrupted.

SoylentNews Community -- How has SAR-CoV-2 (Coronavirus) / COVID-19 Affected You? 325 comments

A lot has already happened this year. SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) which can cause COVID-19 (COronaVIrus Disease 2019) has been making headlines shortly after it was first reported. The first cases were reported to WHO (World Health Organization) on 2019-12-31. The virus spread. It began as an epidemic in China . The world watched apprehensively. Reports surfaced of cases in other countries and the the apprehension grew. For many folk, it turned to fear when it was upgraded to a pandemic: WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 11 March 2020: "We have therefore made the assessment that COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic."

We have seen increasing efforts to stem the spread of the disease. Efforts have run the gamut. Closing of borders. Cancellation of sporting events. Conferences cancelled. Churches and other places of worship also closed. Schools closed. Panic buying of household goods and supplies. Supply chain disruptions affecting manufacturers. Restaurant, bars, and other such establishments closed. Work-from-home policies established and enacted.

The changes have been many, widespread, and continuing.

Reading about all the ways that "other people" have been affected is one thing. It seems different, somehow, when it hits closer to home and affects us directly. With many of our usual social activities curtailed or cancelled, it is easy to begin isolating and lose perspective. SoylentNews arose from a troubled period (the SlashCott) and a community has formed from that challenging period.

How have you been affected? Have you been infected? Had a family member or friend who was? Helped neighbors who are struggling? Hunkering down and isolating? (In a basement is optional.) Are you suddenly working from home and finding it challenging to manage your time? Still working on site, but now have a faster commute due to all the other people staying home? Catching up on watching TV shows? Reading more SoylentNews? How has your life changed?

From a somewhat different perspective, how have others helped you to cope... and how have you been able to help others? One of the potential impacts of social distancing is isolation and depression. I count myself fortunate, indeed, to have served this site for over 6 years and for all the people I have gotten to know, here. For those who may not be aware, SoylentNews has its own IRC (Internet Relay Chat) server. Feel free to drop in to #Soylent and just say "Hi!"

Social distancing is permanent when you're dead. So, practice good hygiene and stay safe.

Previously (oldest first):
China Battles Coronavirus Outbreak: All the Latest Updates
2019-nCoV Coronavirus Story Roundup
Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Roundup
Coronavirus Roundup
Coronavirus Roundup (Feb. 17)
Roundup of Stories about the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus and COVID-19 Disease
COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 - CoronaVirus) Roundup
CoronaVirus (SARS-CoV-2) Roundup 2020-03-12
Working from Home: Lessons Learned Over 20 Years


Original Submission

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The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.
(1)
  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @10:16AM (6 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @10:16AM (#949247)

    To solve our problems for us..

    • (Score: 0, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @12:41PM (5 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @12:41PM (#949275)

      You mean this virus only targets Trump voters?

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @02:57PM (1 child)

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @02:57PM (#949335)

        Virus sprouts in communist third world hell whole. Several current cases in the US had been infected while traveling, now doing well and recovering. >50 dead in communist China. Very effective plan.

        • (Score: 1) by Sulla on Monday January 27 2020, @05:22PM

          by Sulla (5173) on Monday January 27 2020, @05:22PM (#949405) Journal

          now doing well and recovering

          Have a source on this? Have been wondering about how they were doing

          --
          Ceterum censeo Sinae esse delendam
      • (Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @03:01PM (2 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @03:01PM (#949339)

        Actually the opposite. Trump voters tend to be in more rural areas, and stay away from highly populated "liberal" cities. They also don't travel globally very much.

        • (Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @04:51PM (1 child)

          by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @04:51PM (#949392)

          I do travel globally alot. Of the other foreigners I bump into I think there's a decent dividing line between two groups. The first are your younger silver spooner kids and/or backpackers (often the exact same group, contrary to stereotypes). They tend to be ultra-liberal. But most of everybody else tends to lean conservative at a pretty high rate. One exception are your weird older sexpats in places like Thailand. The types that probably could not get laid wherever they came from. They also tend to be ultra-liberal.

  • (Score: 2, Interesting) by aiwarrior on Monday January 27 2020, @10:17AM (39 children)

    by aiwarrior (1812) on Monday January 27 2020, @10:17AM (#949248) Journal

    I trust health authorities but I would like some explanation on why is this such a severe problem. In 56 million people there are 2700 infected and 80 people dead. This is an infection rate of 0,0048214% and a death rate of 0,0001429%. These seem so low odds that i think there way more things that can kill.

    Can anyone explain me why this is so serious? The last time i remember something similar was H1N1 which my country spent fortunes on vaccines that ended up being expired and for nothing. The danger of people not believing health authorities is much bigger than 0,0001429% death rates, and leads to idiots like anti vaxers, so explaining to people why this is important would be much better than hand waiving.

    • (Score: 3, Interesting) by PiMuNu on Monday January 27 2020, @10:25AM (3 children)

      by PiMuNu (3823) Subscriber Badge on Monday January 27 2020, @10:25AM (#949249)

      A cynic might suggest that the serious problem that the Chinese authorities are dealing with is Hong Kong.

      https://variety.com/2020/biz/asia/hong-kong-declares-emergency-coronavirus-response-1203479971/ [variety.com]

    • (Score: 3, Informative) by MostCynical on Monday January 27 2020, @10:42AM (3 children)

      by MostCynical (2589) on Monday January 27 2020, @10:42AM (#949253) Journal

      up to 100,000 infected [theguardian.com] with confirmed cases of human-to-human transmission.

      No one knows how severe it is, yet.

      --
      "I guess once you start doubting, there's no end to it." -Batou, Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex
      • (Score: 2) by HiThere on Monday January 27 2020, @04:49PM (2 children)

        by HiThere (866) on Monday January 27 2020, @04:49PM (#949391) Journal

        Actually, the claim of an upper limit is a bit forced. It's not that easy to detect, and there are indications that one is contagious before symptoms appear.

        OTOH, it may well be a high estimate, because so far it doesn't appear to be very contagious. Apparently close contact is required to transmit the disease.

        At this point I think ALL estimates of how dangerous it is should be doubted. It may be trivial. It may be horrendous. But apparently most people live through it without treatment and without permanent damage, so it's not critical...except, or course, on an individual level. Sort of like traffic accidents, only with a lot fewer people killed.

        --
        Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
        • (Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Monday January 27 2020, @06:27PM (1 child)

          by DeathMonkey (1380) on Monday January 27 2020, @06:27PM (#949452) Journal

          That's kind of the point, though, the uncertainty IS the risk.

          We know it's dangerous, but not how dangerous.
          We know it's contagious, but not how contagious.
          And we know it's a pandemic* already, but not how serious of one.

          With that many unknowns, extreme caution is advised.

          *pandemic just means it has spread to multiple continents.

    • (Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @11:12AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @11:12AM (#949257)

      you should be comparing number of infected people versus number of exposed people, not total number of people.
      if there are 3000 infected people out of 4000 exposed people, that is a very big deal.

      but the numbers are off anyway, see reply quoting the guardian above.

    • (Score: 4, Insightful) by FatPhil on Monday January 27 2020, @11:14AM (1 child)

      by FatPhil (863) <pc-soylentNO@SPAMasdf.fi> on Monday January 27 2020, @11:14AM (#949258) Homepage
      Which bit of "if R_0>>1, then even one non-isolated case is too many to be complacent about"? You've given it about 10 days before jumping to a conclusion, and it's been nothing but exponential in reported growth that time. The fact that you're claiming there's a huge population that's not infected is *part of the danger*, there's nothing there to restrict the continuation of the exponential growth.
      --
      Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @12:47PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @12:47PM (#949278)

        Exactly. The R0 estimates have gone from 3.5 to 2.5 to 3.3 to 5.47 and mortality is around 5% (76 dead from 1423 confirmed Hubei cases). An R0 of ~5.5, asymptomatic patients being infectious and people collapsing in the street isn't enough to convince some people.

    • (Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Monday January 27 2020, @11:39AM (13 children)

      by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Monday January 27 2020, @11:39AM (#949260) Homepage Journal

      The jury seems to still be out.

      I hope they're overreacting. But, it could be they are under reacting. It has a toe-hold right now. It could sweep the globe in the next ten days, and decimate the human population, or worse. More likely, it's going to kill a few hundred to a few thousand more, then recede into mankind's nightmares.

      How many scares have we had in the past decade? Nothing to get worked up about at this point, really. Sit back, relax, and let the medical professionals deal with it. It sucks when politicians and click-bait news agencies get involved in this stuff.

      --
      "no more than 8 bullets in a round" - Joe Biden
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @12:19PM (11 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @12:19PM (#949265)

        Side note: the original meaning of "decimate" was "one in 10 is killed" (original i.e. 2000 years ago). It has over the years become "9 in 10 are killed, or more".
        As far as I can tell if every human on Earth is infected it's possible to reach a death-rate of around 1 in 100, which is technically less bad than "decimate" in any of the two meanings. It would be a horrible situation and I really hope it doesn't come to this. 1 in 1000 would still mean 70 million people (about the population of the UK). It's a number I can write and I can speak, but I doubt I understand the actual consequences. What is scary is the infection rate, and the fact that it's contagious before symptoms become apparent. Even with 1 in 10000 dead, it's a big number if everybody on Earth is infected.

        • (Score: 3, Informative) by Muad'Dave on Monday January 27 2020, @12:25PM (7 children)

          by Muad'Dave (1413) on Monday January 27 2020, @12:25PM (#949268)

          The 1918 "Spanish" Flu Epidemic [history.com] killed up to 50 million people worldwide. That's about 1 in 3.

          • (Score: 4, Insightful) by ikanreed on Monday January 27 2020, @02:01PM (6 children)

            by ikanreed (3164) on Monday January 27 2020, @02:01PM (#949304) Journal

            What's always worth noting about the spanish flu is that it was dead in the middle of WW1 where it broke out, and there were basically no doctors around in the areas most badly hit. It was called the spanish flu because spain wasn't involved in the war and actually tracked, treated, and reported on the disease.

            It's not a glimpse at how dangerous a strain can be, it's a glimpse at what a total lack of public health infrastructure can allow.

            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @02:19PM

              by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @02:19PM (#949313)

              They were plenty of people who got treated with toxic doses of aspirin. Many others were malnourished.

            • (Score: 2) by Muad'Dave on Monday January 27 2020, @02:21PM (4 children)

              by Muad'Dave (1413) on Monday January 27 2020, @02:21PM (#949315)

              While true, it was a particularly nasty strain that 'preferentially' killed healthy adults. It wasn't the flu bug per se that killed you, it was your body's (over-)response to it. People with strong immune systems died in disproportionate numbers.

              • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @02:25PM

                by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @02:25PM (#949321)

                Who said they had strong immune systems? They were on war rations before most vitamins were easily available or even identified.

              • (Score: 2) by ikanreed on Monday January 27 2020, @02:35PM

                by ikanreed (3164) on Monday January 27 2020, @02:35PM (#949327) Journal

                Yeah, but we've had h1n1 outbreaks many times since then, and the world's more connected, not less. The magic formula is bombed out cities with widespread malnutrition, miserable soldiers packed in muddy holes with weakened immune systems, no one tracking and containing the spread, and nowhere near enough doctors.

              • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @03:04PM (1 child)

                by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @03:04PM (#949342)

                Also it was secondary bacterial infections that did a lot of the heavy killing after infecting a host already infected by influenza. Antibiotics were no where near as effective nor widely used at the time to have an impact on the death toll. Same thing today, most people who die of influenza either die from secondary bacterial infections or have bad bacterial pneumonia first then further get infected by influenza.

                • (Score: 2) by HiThere on Monday January 27 2020, @04:53PM

                  by HiThere (866) on Monday January 27 2020, @04:53PM (#949393) Journal

                  Of course, antibiotics are no longer as effective as they were...

                  --
                  Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
        • (Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @12:37PM

          by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @12:37PM (#949272)

          Are you paid to post this?

        • (Score: 3, Informative) by hendrikboom on Monday January 27 2020, @01:11PM (1 child)

          by hendrikboom (1125) Subscriber Badge on Monday January 27 2020, @01:11PM (#949292) Homepage Journal

          Death rate currently seems to be about 3%, not 1%.

          • (Score: 3, Informative) by Fluffeh on Monday January 27 2020, @11:47PM

            by Fluffeh (954) Subscriber Badge on Monday January 27 2020, @11:47PM (#949666) Journal

            That rate would be deaths/confirmed_cases - but the rate of deaths/actual_cases would be a much smaller ratio.

            There would be a LOT more sick right now that haven't been confirmed. These will either incubate into confirmed cases or the mortality rate is actually smaller by (probably) orders of magnitude.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @05:54PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @05:54PM (#949432)

        Nothing to get worked up about at this point, really.

        Exactly, This is only 2019-nCoV. You can get worked up when 2020-nCovfefe hits.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @04:00PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @04:00PM (#949369)

      Here you go [newscientist.com] and the paper referenced above [biorxiv.org]

    • (Score: 3, Insightful) by The Mighty Buzzard on Monday January 27 2020, @04:16PM (4 children)

      Simple: It's such a severe problem because fear generates ad revenue.

      --
      My rights don't end where your fear begins.
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @04:35PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @04:35PM (#949386)

        Don't underestimate the fun level of a habbening.

      • (Score: 2) by darkfeline on Tuesday January 28 2020, @03:15AM (2 children)

        by darkfeline (1030) on Tuesday January 28 2020, @03:15AM (#949805) Homepage

        Not in China. It's clearly pretty bad since the Chinese government is unable to censor how bad it is any more.

        if it wasn't serious, then the initial wave of silencings^]^Hcorrections would have been the last anyone heard of it.

        It's getting hard to find now, but if you look around, you can still find a few references to all the people getting censored for posting non-conforming narratives about the outbreak.

        --
        Join the SDF Public Access UNIX System today!
        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 28 2020, @06:04AM (1 child)

          by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 28 2020, @06:04AM (#949927)

          Considering that there were almost 7 million individuals who have gone to various hospitals all over the country in the last 10 days to check themselves as they had symptoms or suspected that they could be having symptoms and there were insufficient test kits or no test kits in most cases,the scenario seems frightening indeed and is a cause of concern to the international community.

          https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/reasons-for-china%E2%80%99s-unreliable-death-and-infected-statistics--finally-revealed-insufficient-test-kits,-also-cambodia-reports-first-case [thailandmedical.news]

          So finally we get some good numbers. There were 7 million people with symptoms, and 100 deaths. Assuming the number of deaths is correct, that gives a lower bound on mortality rate at .0015%. The upper bound is deaths/confirmed cases of 2.5%, right? I mean people who do not get confirmed are not going to be dying any faster than those sick enough to be tested.

          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 28 2020, @06:59PM

            by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday January 28 2020, @06:59PM (#950180)

            In Wuhan they were only counting cases that they had accepted into hospitals, and some of the more elderly possible infections were sent home to work it out on their own. This information came from messages between police officers, but everything can be faked these days. I lean more toward this being worse than what the CCP says, but by how much.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @05:02PM (3 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @05:02PM (#949398)

      Nobody gave the simple and correct answer. Linear vs exponential growth. Viruses grow exponentially, which means they never seem scary early on. For an example:

      Week 1: 10 infected
      Week 2: 20 infected
      Week 3: 40 infected

      Who cares?

      Week 13: 40,960 infected

      Still not such a big problem...

      Week 23: 42 million

      Okay well this is pretty terrifying but still that's only like 0.5% of the world's population.

      Week 33: 100% infection.

      ---

      This will probably just end up like the swine flu or bird flu (both of which I caught - I run good) and be a somewhat nastier flu that fades in a relatively short period of time. But at the same time things like this also need to be taken extremely seriously because the times when a virus like this mutates or when it can spread without visible symptoms (both of which are true in this instance) then you risk creating a global pandemic that could completely devastate the world.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @05:36PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @05:36PM (#949417)

        Multiple comments mentioned the R0 [healthline.com] estimates and this can be spread by asymptomatic carriers (which is why current estimates for R0 are 3-5). The WHO believe the virus to be stable (low mutation risk).

      • (Score: 2) by Osamabobama on Monday January 27 2020, @05:40PM (1 child)

        by Osamabobama (5842) on Monday January 27 2020, @05:40PM (#949421)

        On the other hand, the exponential growth slows as there are fewer people left to infect. This happens locally as entire towns are infected, which leaves the people who don't travel unable to infect others, slowing growth of the infected population.

        --
        Appended to the end of comments you post. Max: 120 chars.
        • (Score: 2) by mhajicek on Tuesday January 28 2020, @06:48AM

          by mhajicek (51) on Tuesday January 28 2020, @06:48AM (#949948)

          And you have to get it into Madagascar before they close the ports.

          --
          The spacelike surfaces of time foliations can have a cusp at the surface of discontinuity. - P. Hajicek
    • (Score: 2) by takyon on Monday January 27 2020, @07:06PM (1 child)

      by takyon (881) <takyonNO@SPAMsoylentnews.org> on Monday January 27 2020, @07:06PM (#949480) Journal

      20+ Apple Suppliers Located In City Affected By Coronavirus Shutdown [wccftech.com]

      Drop everything. This is OFFICIALLY serious.

      --
      [SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
      • (Score: 2) by mhajicek on Tuesday January 28 2020, @06:51AM

        by mhajicek (51) on Tuesday January 28 2020, @06:51AM (#949949)

        I don't eat Chinese apples.

        --
        The spacelike surfaces of time foliations can have a cusp at the surface of discontinuity. - P. Hajicek
    • (Score: 2, Informative) by maggotbrain on Monday January 27 2020, @09:20PM (1 child)

      by maggotbrain (6063) on Monday January 27 2020, @09:20PM (#949577)
      Part of the concern, I think, is that the Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has been given a CFR https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate [wikipedia.org] of around ~2.9. It was initially given a CFR of ~3.8 by one researcher and then quickly dialed down. For perspective, the Spanish Flu of 1918 has a CFR rating ~2.5 which infected ~500,000,000 and killed ~50 million+ globally.

      Since this is still a relatively new outbreak the exact numbers are still being debated and media panic is apparently confounding the issue. My 0.02. YMMV.
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @10:22PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @10:22PM (#949611)

        Media panic? They haven't even figured out that it is an escaped bioweapon yet.

  • (Score: -1, Troll) by Bot on Monday January 27 2020, @10:49AM (11 children)

    by Bot (3902) on Monday January 27 2020, @10:49AM (#949254) Journal

    Somewhere in planet earth, some human being are offering sanctuary to rare endangered variety of coronavirus, which, despite the corona- prefix which means crown, is totally not monarchic. Sometimes the virus kills the host, it's a cultural thing, payback for our discovering penicillin, not enough to deny sanctuary.

    If you are somewhere in planet earth and notice a fellow human being feeling sick, there's nothing you can do.
    Especially you cannot define borders and policies for people who want to cross the aforementioned borders. Borders are inherently evil and any excuse for building one is a right wing conspiracy that wants to bring Hitler back from the grave.

    --
    Account abandoned.
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @12:21PM (10 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @12:21PM (#949266)

      I really have no idea what you're trying to say.
      but please keep in mind that penicilin is an antibiotic, and absolutely no antibiotics will help to fight off a viral infection.
      maybe if the viral infection weakens you such that you get a bacterial infection on top, then antibiotics will help to at least keep the bacteria in check.
      please don't take antibiotics for the flu. it will not help.

      • (Score: -1, Troll) by Bot on Monday January 27 2020, @12:28PM

        by Bot (3902) on Monday January 27 2020, @12:28PM (#949269) Journal

        > penicillin is not antiviral.

        Yes, and I committed no violence ever against the paki guys who come here molesting our 14 year olds. See what I meant?

        But if you did not get the rest I doubt this makes any difference.

        --
        Account abandoned.
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @12:35PM (8 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @12:35PM (#949270)

        Your advice is wrong. Usually people die or have complications from bacterial pneumonia, which takes hold after the tissue is damaged by viral replication and immune response. So antibiotics can be very helpful in cases of the flu. Of course, even more useful is sufficient vitamin c to prevent the damage to begin with.

        • (Score: 3, Insightful) by hendrikboom on Monday January 27 2020, @01:16PM (7 children)

          by hendrikboom (1125) Subscriber Badge on Monday January 27 2020, @01:16PM (#949293) Homepage Journal

          I thought vitamin C against the common cold was debunked long long ago. Even a vitamin C manufacturer was unable to fabricate any evidence for it.

          Does it actually turn out to help with other viral infections?

          -- hendrik

          • (Score: 3, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @01:28PM (1 child)

            by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @01:28PM (#949298)

            It wasn't debunked, they just tested very low doses and did pharmacokinetic studies in *healthy* people that showed they were pissing it all out after 100 mg/day. If you give the same dose to sick people it doesn't even get their blood levels back to normal:

            "Using the pharmacokinetic data from the study by Levine et al. [23], we constructed a four-parameter log- logistic response model to predict the plasma vitamin C concentrations for the critically ill patients on the basis of their enteral and/or parenteral vitamin C intakes. The predicted plasma concentrations, although variable, were significantly higher at all time points than the measured plasma concentrations (P https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5725835/

            Really the does required depends on the redox environment of your body, so a proper dosing requires measuring blood levels or titrating to bowel tolerance. It's possible someone with a cold can absorb a hundred grams in a day: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7321921 [nih.gov]

            Basically, they need to measure the plasma vitamin C levels in just one of these patients. Then once they see it is depleted (which it is in every illness ever checked), see how much it takes to get them at least back to normal. Then assess the health effects. Just one patient. But they won't. They'll spend a trillion dollars on other BS and quarantining 100 million people, building a new hospital every week, etc. But they won't check vitamin C levels in a single patient.

            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @06:59PM

              by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @06:59PM (#949472)

              It's amazing to think of how fucked up the mind is of whoever downvoted this lifesaving info. Just check the vitamin c levels in the blood of one patient, what is there to lose?

          • (Score: 2) by Bot on Monday January 27 2020, @02:25PM (4 children)

            by Bot (3902) on Monday January 27 2020, @02:25PM (#949322) Journal

            In the statistical bubble of my own experience, vit C is more effective than flu vaccines. make of that what you wish.

            --
            Account abandoned.
  • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Monday January 27 2020, @12:54PM (8 children)

    by Phoenix666 (552) on Monday January 27 2020, @12:54PM (#949280) Journal

    The Chinese are doomed because there is no way to stop them from spitting or getting them to wash their hands. Everyone else who has mastered such public health measures will come out alright, and Singaporeans will come away scot-free.

    --
    Washington DC delenda est.
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @01:00PM (1 child)

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @01:00PM (#949283)

      On the spot fines for this type of behavior in public.
      Fixed.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @01:27PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @01:27PM (#949297)

        They are still at the beating people up as they try to escape the death vans phase.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @01:54PM (2 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @01:54PM (#949301)

      The revolution took no prisoners, only the borgeious washed their hands comrade.

      • (Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @05:18PM (1 child)

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @05:18PM (#949402)

        The borgious sound gorgeous and homosexual all in one.

        • (Score: 2) by Bot on Monday January 27 2020, @07:18PM

          by Bot (3902) on Monday January 27 2020, @07:18PM (#949487) Journal

          "bourgeois" does not generate the squiggly red line, so it must be the one.

          --
          Account abandoned.
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @02:35PM (1 child)

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @02:35PM (#949326)

      ...there is no way to stop them from spitting or getting them to wash their hands.

      You underestimate the power of a totalitarian police state. If they can force people to have only one child at a time, they can make them do something simpler like forcing people into proper hygienic practices. Singapore imposed draconian punishments on people for such infractions and it will be even easier for the PRC to do something similar.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @03:32PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @03:32PM (#949355)

        That would stress the population too much. The CCP's course, since the 80s, has been to give the people free rein to do whatever their urges call on them to do, until it starts affecting China's reputation or could jeopardize CCP ownership of the country.

    • (Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @08:39PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @08:39PM (#949547)

      and Singaporeans will come away scot-free.

      If by "scot-free" you mean "already has at least one confirmed case" then you would be right. It's amazing how many virologists there are on this website. I thought it was just a place for stupid trolls like ef.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @02:10PM (4 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @02:10PM (#949307)

    i wonder how many of these 'em pandemics go unnoticed.
    as far as i can remember, the last time i went to the doctor, feeling sick, he drew blood by the galon and sent it off to some high-tech biotech facility, same with spit, poo and pee.
    i was stuck in a hermetically sealed room and observed with a diet of green apples, salt biscuits (non moldy) and hot-sugar tea for two weeks!
    obviously this is all fake and non-sense. but this is the way a "new virus" would be discovered.
    the "normal" way of "please take off your shirt and cough while i listen" and "please put this thermometer in your mouth" "ok, you got the flu. take this ibuprofene / aspirine /whatnot and drink plenty of fluids. thanks for visit" ... will probably not discover a new virus unless it makes your eyes turn blue ..uhm .. no .. uhm ... green, well some really strange color -or- make a greenish-yellow-glowing lump grow out the side of your head?

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @02:23PM (3 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @02:23PM (#949318)

      The same way the vaping illness started. It is idiopathic pneumonia, ie the patients test negative for all the usual stuff. Then they try to find some correlation with something. In this case even WHO admits this virus hasn't yet been verified as the cause of the symptoms.

  • (Score: 2) by looorg on Monday January 27 2020, @04:14PM (9 children)

    by looorg (578) on Monday January 27 2020, @04:14PM (#949373)

    So how many people, approximations are fine, die in like a normal outbreak or flu season etc in China? Considering there are billions of of them the number so far seem very low. Don't think there is reason to prep for the doomsday scenarios just yet.

    • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @04:35PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @04:35PM (#949385)

      ok coofer

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @05:12PM (1 child)

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @05:12PM (#949400)

      Not sure how people do not understand this [soylentnews.org].

      Linear vs exponential growth. If you ever reach the point that a new plague is scaring people who don't appreciate exponential growth, then it's far far too late to do anything.

      And no, 99% of the time it will be fine - but that's only because people treat this things extremely seriously. China is literally canceling New Years festivities in most major cities in the country. New Years is a much larger celebration in China than the US so it's more analogous to something like the government 'cancelling Christmas.' The analogy doesn't quite work because of the difference between public and private gatherings, but I speaking of the magnitude of this act. The point being that this is an absolutely appropriate reaction on their part.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @06:31PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @06:31PM (#949455)

        Everyone understrands exponential growth, but only idiots spout off about it when that has never been observed to happen ever. The only way it continues into the summer is if we get one of those grand solar minimum years without a summer.

    • (Score: 3, Insightful) by ElizabethGreene on Monday January 27 2020, @05:40PM (5 children)

      by ElizabethGreene (6748) on Monday January 27 2020, @05:40PM (#949422)

      I agree with you that it's not time to move into the bunker, but it is a reasonable time to have a conversation about tripwires.

      e.g.
      At what point are you no longer willing to fly to the source province in China?
      To China generally?
      To stop international air travel?
      To stop all air travel?
      To stop all travel?
      To work only from home?
      To pull the kids out of school?
      To stay home, living off stored supplies?
      To move into the bunker?

      I travel for work a fair amount, mostly within the US. Speaking only for me, I will not travel to China now, and I'm hesitant to travel internationally or to any state with active cases. I'm following the cases here in the US to see the impact under competent medical care before making a decision about what moves us further down the list.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @06:28PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @06:28PM (#949453)

        i think you got your priorities wrong.
        mean shouldn't you save your kids very early on?
        i mean if you should run out of rations while in the bunker ... you still got the kids ...
        (i kid, i kid(no pun intended))

      • (Score: 1) by Sulla on Monday January 27 2020, @06:32PM (3 children)

        by Sulla (5173) on Monday January 27 2020, @06:32PM (#949457) Journal

        CDC has some information out now that is worth checking out. It would need verification (I don't have time right now) but I read last night on their website they were routing incoming flights from China through airports setup for testing everyone coming in from those regions. It might be worth it to avoid using those airports as hubs until we hear more.

        The big concern I have is that the virus appears to be able to spread when the host has not shown any symptoms. Cities with universities that host large numbers of students from China might also be risky until we are outside of the window from where we started testing people coming in, although maybe longer as the virus appears to last at least 24 hours on surfaces.

        --
        Ceterum censeo Sinae esse delendam
        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @07:02PM (2 children)

          by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @07:02PM (#949475)

          What are they testing for?

          • (Score: 1) by Sulla on Monday January 27 2020, @07:35PM (1 child)

            by Sulla (5173) on Monday January 27 2020, @07:35PM (#949496) Journal

            Evidently pointless to catch the people who are asymptomatic

            https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p0117-coronavirus-screening.html [cdc.gov] from the 17th

            Public Health Screening to Begin at 3 U.S. Airports for 2019 Novel Coronavirus (“2019-nCoV”)

            The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Department of Homeland Security’s Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will implement enhanced health screenings to detect ill travelers traveling to the United States on direct or connecting flights from Wuhan, China. This activity is in response to an outbreak in China caused by a novel (new) coronavirus (2019 nCoV), with exported cases to Thailand and Japan.

            Starting January 17, 2020, travelers from Wuhan to the United States will undergo entry screening for symptoms associated with 2019-nCoV at three U.S. airports that receive most of the travelers from Wuhan, China: San Francisco (SFO), New York (JFK), and Los Angeles (LAX) airports.

            https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p0124-second-travel-coronavirus.html [cdc.gov] from the 24th

            CDC is taking aggressive public health measures to help protect the health of Americans. While CDC considers this a serious public health threat, based on current information, the immediate health risk from 2019-nCoV to the general American public is considered low at this time. CDC is working closely with the Illinois Department of Public Health, the Chicago Department of Public Health, and other local partners. A CDC team has been deployed to support the ongoing investigation.

            However, CDC has been proactively preparing for the introduction of 2019-nCoV in the U.S. for weeks, including:

                    First alerting clinicians on January 8 to be on the look-out for patients with respiratory symptoms and a history of travel to Wuhan, China.
                    Developing guidance for clinicians for testing and management of 2019-nCoV, as well as guidance for home care of patients with 2019-nCoV.
                    Has developed a diagnostic test to detect this virus in clinical specimens. Currently, testing must take place at CDC, but CDC is preparing to share these test kits with domestic and international partners.
                    Implementing public health entry screening at Atlanta (ATL), Chicago (ORD), Los Angeles (LAX), New York (JFK), and San Francisco (SFO) airports. CDC is currently evaluating the extent and duration of this enhanced screening.
                    CDC has activated its Emergency Operations Center to better provide ongoing support.

            “To further protect the health of the American public during the emergence of this novel coronavirus, CDC is beginning entry screening at three ports of entry. Investigations into this novel coronavirus are ongoing and we are monitoring and responding to this evolving situation,” said Martin Cetron, M.D., Director of CDC’s Division of Global Migration and Quarantine.

            Based on current information, the risk from 2019-nCoV to the American public is currently deemed to be low. Nevertheless, CDC is taking proactive preparedness precautions.

            Entry screening is part of a layered approach used with other public health measures already in place to detect arriving travelers who are sick (such as detection and reporting of ill travelers by airlines during travel and referral of ill travelers arriving at a US port of entry by CBP) to slow and reduce the spread of any disease into the United States.

            --
            Ceterum censeo Sinae esse delendam
            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @07:52PM

              by Anonymous Coward on Monday January 27 2020, @07:52PM (#949503)

              So they are screening for symptoms of pneumonia, even though we are told you can spread the virus without showing symptoms. Ie, there was that guy who got surgery and only then became symptomatic (probably because surgery depletes vitamin c). But before that he had still supposedly managed to infect 15 healthcare workers.

              And then there is the fact that I still haven't seen any proof this virus they have a sequence for is actually causing the symptoms. There are seemingly lots of cases with the same symptoms who test negative for the virus.

  • (Score: 2) by Mainframe Bloke on Tuesday January 28 2020, @04:34AM

    by Mainframe Bloke (1665) on Tuesday January 28 2020, @04:34AM (#949877) Journal

    This may be of interest, especially the yellow graph showing the increasing case count in China; 4400 cases in a week there, > 100 deaths so not a massive rate, but is it early days yet?

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 [arcgis.com]

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