from the sick-and-tired-of-being-sick-and-tired dept.
Editor's Comment: The figures and statistics regarding the novel coronavirus outbreak are changing daily and there are differences between reports from different sources. The latest figures, which we believe to be from a reputable source and which are being regularly updated, can be found at the worldometers. If you have a favourite site for updated information please leave a link in the comments.
Chinese Whistleblower Doctor Dies Due to Coronavirus
Li Wenliang: Coronavirus kills Chinese whistleblower doctor
A Chinese doctor who tried to issue the first warning about the deadly coronavirus outbreak has died, the hospital treating him has said. Li Wenliang contracted the virus while working at Wuhan Central Hospital. He had sent out a warning to fellow medics on 30 December but police told him to stop "making false comments".
There had been contradictory reports about his death, but the People's Daily now says he died at 02:58 on Friday (18:58 GMT Thursday).
The virus has killed 636 people and infected 31,161 in mainland China, the National Health Commission's latest figures show. The death toll includes 73 new deaths reported on Thursday.
An AC writes:
Wuhan hospital announces death of whistleblower doctor after confusion in state media
This story has been updated to reflect the latest statement from Wuhan Central Hospital, after confusion in state media reports.
Li died of the novel coronavirus in Wuhan in the early hours of Friday morning (local time).
"Our hospital's ophthalmologist Li Wenliang was unfortunately infected with coronavirus during his work in the fight against the coronavirus epidemic," the latest hospital statement read.
"He died at 2:58 am on Feb 7 after attempts to resuscitate were unsuccessful."
Earlier on Thursday night, several state media outlets had reported Li's death, following which Chinese social media erupted in profound grief and anger.
Wuhan Seafood Market May Not be Source of Novel Virus Spreading Globally
As confirmed cases of a novel virus surge around the world with worrisome speed, all eyes have so far focused on a seafood market in Wuhan, China, as the origin of the outbreak. But a description of the first clinical cases published in The Lancet on Friday challenges that hypothesis.
The paper, written by a large group of Chinese researchers from several institutions, offers details about the first 41 hospitalized patients who had confirmed infections with what has been dubbed 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report. "No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases," they state. Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace. "That's a big number, 13, with no link," says Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University.
[...] Bin Cao of Capital Medical University, the corresponding author of The Lancet article and a pulmonary specialist, wrote in an email to ScienceInsider that he and his co-authors "appreciate the criticism" from Lucey.
"Now It seems clear that [the] seafood market is not the only origin of the virus," he wrote. "But to be honest, we still do not know where the virus came from now."
Lucey notes that the discovery of the coronavirus that causes Middle East respiratory syndrome, a sometimes fatal disease that occurs sporadically, came from a patient in Saudi Arabia in June 2012, although later studies traced it back to an earlier hospital outbreak of unexplained pneumonia in Jordan in April 2012. Stored samples from two people who died in Jordan confirmed they had been infected with the virus. Retrospective analyses of blood samples in China from people and animals—including vendors from other animal markets—may reveal a clear picture of where the 2019-nCoV originated, he suggests. "There might be a clear signal among the noise," he says.
Canada: You are More Likely to Commit Suicide than Die from Coronavirus
5 things more likely to kill you in Canada than coronavirus:
Cases of the new coronavirus strain have topped 20,000 around the world, spurring health and travel concerns, a flurry of xenophobic and insensitive social media posts, and high demand for face masks.
For all that it's an international public health emergency that's killed more than 400 people (mostly in mainland China), the risk for people in Canada remains low. As of Feb. 4, nobody here has died. Globally the fatality rate is close to three per cent, which is less than SARS, which hit in 2003 and had a global fatality rate of 9.6 per cent (12.4 per cent in Canada).
[...] "What should you worry about?" says Jeffrey S. Rosenthal, a University of Toronto statistics professor and author of Struck by Lightning: The Curious World of Probabilities, which came out following the SARS epidemic.
In order of decreasing likelihood, the top 5 are:
- Cardiovascular Disease
- Accidents, including a car crash
- The flu
[...] Every year thousands of people in Canada die by suicide — a figure experts say is conservative at best. In 2018, 3,811 people died by suicide. And yet, it is preventable, experts say, if we keep fighting stigma, connecting the data, and working to ensure everyone has access to the treatment they need.
Coronavirus News is Being Manipulated By Pro- and Anti-China Actors.
Readers should be highly skeptical of all news content relating to the current coronavirus pandemic. It is obvious that powerful state actors are involved in setting conflicting narratives on this subject and no news outlet or social media should be trusted implicitly.
For example, news outlets have been reporting that the official numbers of suspected, infected, dead, and recovered patients have been manipulated. See
Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths
TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — As many experts question the veracity of China's statistics for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, Tencent over the weekend appeared to inadvertently release what is potentially the actual number of infections and deaths — which are far higher than official figures, but eerily in line with predictions from a respected scientific journal.
As early as Jan. 26, netizens were reporting that Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker," briefly showed data on the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China that was much higher than official estimates, before suddenly switching to lower numbers. Hiroki Lo, a 38-year-old Taiwanese beverage store owner, that day reported that Tencent and NetEase were both posting "unmodified statistics," before switching to official numbers in short order.
[...] On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), the Tencent webpage showed confirmed cases of the Wuhan virus in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.
The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.
Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government's "official" numbers that day. Netizens noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics.
Website Image [63kB]
Netizens also noticed that each time the screen with the large numbers appears, a comparison with the previous day's data appears above, which demonstrates a "reasonable" incremental increase, much like the official numbers. This has led some netizens to speculate that Tencent has two sets of data, the real data and "processed" data.
Some are speculating that a coding problem could be causing the real "internal" data to accidentally appear. Others believe that someone behind the scenes is trying to leak the real numbers.
However, the "internal" data held by Beijing may not reflect the true extent of the epidemic. According to multiple sources in Wuhan, many coronavirus patients are unable to receive treatment and die outside of hospitals.
A severe shortage of test kits also leads to a lower number of diagnosed cases of infection and death. In addition, there have been many reports of doctors being ordered to list other forms of death instead of coronavirus to keep the death toll artificially low.
Tencent condemns social media sources for doctoring images of their "Epidemic Situation Tracker" and inflating data of coronavirus deaths and infections
It appears that Tencent Holdings Ltd. denies claims it had posted much much larger Novel CoronaVirus (2019-nCoV) numbers than those issued in official Chinese reports. According to DimSum Daily (Hong Kong):
6th February 2020 – (Hong Kong) We reported this afternoon that Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on coronavirus deaths i.e. 154,023 infections and 24,589 deaths, according to Taiwan News.
In response, spokesperson for Tencent in Hong Kong wrote a reply to Dimsumdaily this evening and explained that the Tencent News "Epidemic Situation Tracker" reports real-time data from China' s National Health Commission and various Municipal Health Commissions across China.
[...] Unfortunately, several social media sources have circulated doctored images of their "Epidemic Situation Tracker" featuring false information which Tencent never published.
Similar claims were posted by The Hindu Business Online, except that they claimed (without providing any links):
Reacting to the news report, Tencent Global, in a series of tweets, said: "Unfortunately, several social media sources have circulated doctored images of our 'Epidemic Situation Tracker' featuring false information which we never published.
"Tencent uses technology for good and is disappointed with this type of unscrupulous behavior. Tencent does not condone the dissemination of inaccurate information and fake news, especially during this sensitive period."
Study Claiming New Coronavirus Can be Transmitted by People Without Symptoms Was Flawed
stormwyrm [soylentnews.org] writes:
The 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has so far infected nearly 25,000 people and killed close to 500 as of February 5 [PDF], and has been declared a global health emergency by the World Health Organization. Scientific investigation of the new disease and its properties continues, and there has been an alleged case of transmission of the virus from someone not exhibiting symptoms, from a paper published in the New England Journal of Medicine last January 30. If true this would make controlling the spread of the disease more difficult. However, subsequent investigation has shown serious flaws in the report. From Science Magazine:
A paper published on 30 January in The New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) about the first four people in Germany infected with a novel coronavirus made many headlines because it seemed to confirm what public health experts feared: that someone who has no symptoms from infection with the virus, named 2019-nCoV, can still transmit it to others. That might make controlling the virus much harder.
Chinese researchers had previously suggested asymptomatic people might transmit the virus but had not presented clear-cut evidence. "There's no doubt after reading [the NEJM] paper that asymptomatic transmission is occurring," Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told journalists. "This study lays the question to rest."
But now, it turns out that information was wrong. The Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the German government's public health agency, has written a letter to NEJM to set the record straight, even though it was not involved in the paper.
The letter in NEJM described a cluster of infections that began after a businesswoman from Shanghai visited a company near Munich on 20 and 21 January, where she had a meeting with the first of four people who later fell ill. Crucially, she wasn't sick at the time: "During her stay, she had been well with no sign or symptoms of infection but had become ill on her flight back to China," the authors wrote. "The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak."
But the researchers didn't actually speak to the woman before they published the paper. The last author, Michael Hoelscher of the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich Medical Center, says the paper relied on information from the four other patients: "They told us that the patient from China did not appear to have any symptoms." Afterward, however, RKI and the Health and Food Safety Authority of the state of Bavaria did talk to the Shanghai patient on the phone, and it turned out she did have symptoms while in Germany. According to people familiar with the call, she felt tired, suffered from muscle pain, and took paracetamol, a fever-lowering medication. (An RKI spokesperson would only confirm to Science that the woman had symptoms.)
Other reports from The Scientist and Ars Technica. This doesn't mean that asymptomatic transmission of 2019-nCoV is not happening, but even if it does, so far it appears that it is likely not a major driver of transmission [pdf].
China Takes Desperate, "Wartime" Measures to Stop Coronavirus in Wuhan
China takes desperate, "wartime" measures to stop coronavirus in Wuhan:
Chinese authorities in Wuhan Thursday said that they will conduct door-to-door home searches for people potentially infected with the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) and corral the sick into massive, makeshift quarantine camps around the city, according to a report in the New York Times.
These latest extreme outbreak control measures are on top of already draconian travel restrictions and shutdowns of public transit, which have effectively isolated Wuhan—a city of 11 million where the explosive outbreak began—as well as other highly populated cities in the Hubei province. Overall, the lockdown has made it difficult to get food and supplies to Hubei's 50 million residents, contributing to a humanitarian crisis that is now swelling from Wuhan in the wake of the virus.
[...] Reports from Wuhan suggest that medical staff are running short of personal protective equipment, medicines, and supplies to test patients for the 2019-nCoV. According to the Times, many Wuhan residents who have respiratory symptoms have been forced to go from hospital to hospital, on foot, to try to get tested. Many are turned away, untested and untreated.
Moreover, experts fear that penning potentially infected people in large quarantine camps—set up in a sports stadium, an exhibition center, and a building complex—with minimal medical care could make the sick sicker and let the whole gamut of infectious diseases run rampant among the confined people.
Still, Chinese authorities seemed resolute to take whatever extreme actions they see as useful to get a grip on the outbreak. Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, who visited Wuhan Thursday and announced the new control measures, said that the city and country face "wartime conditions."
To get an equivalent number of people under quarantine, one would need to lock down every single person in the 50-largest cities in the United States:
|RANK| CITY, STATE | CITY POP | TOTAL POP |
| 01 | New York, New York | 8,398,748 | 8,398,748 |
| 02 | Los Angeles, California | 3,990,456 | 12,389,204 |
| 03 | Chicago, Illinois | 2,705,994 | 15,095,198 |
| 04 | Houston, Texas | 2,325,502 | 17,420,700 |
| 05 | Phoenix, Arizona | 1,660,272 | 19,080,972 |
| 06 | Philadelphia, Pennsylvania | 1,584,138 | 20,665,110 |
| 07 | San Antonio, Texas | 1,532,233 | 22,197,343 |
| 08 | San Diego, California | 1,425,976 | 23,623,319 |
| 09 | Dallas, Texas | 1,345,047 | 24,968,366 |
| 10 | San Jose, California | 1,030,119 | 25,998,485 |
| 11 | Austin, Texas | 964,254 | 26,962,739 |
| 12 | Jacksonville, Florida | 903,889 | 27,866,628 |
| 13 | Fort Worth, Texas | 895,008 | 28,761,636 |
| 14 | Columbus, Ohio | 892,533 | 29,654,169 |
| 15 | San Francisco, California | 883,305 | 30,537,474 |
| 16 | Charlotte, North Carolina | 872,498 | 31,409,972 |
| 17 | Indianapolis, Indiana | 867,125 | 32,277,097 |
| 18 | Seattle, Washington | 744,955 | 33,022,052 |
| 19 | Denver, Colorado | 716,492 | 33,738,544 |
| 20 | Washington, District of Columbia | 702,455 | 34,440,999 |
| 21 | Boston, Massachusetts | 694,583 | 35,135,582 |
| 22 | El Paso, Texas | 682,669 | 35,818,251 |
| 23 | Detroit, Michigan | 672,662 | 36,490,913 |
| 24 | Nashville, Tennessee | 669,053 | 37,159,966 |
| 25 | Portland, Oregon | 653,115 | 37,813,081 |
| 26 | Memphis, Tennessee | 650,618 | 38,463,699 |
| 27 | Oklahoma City, Oklahoma | 649,021 | 39,112,720 |
| 28 | Las Vegas, Nevada | 644,644 | 39,757,364 |
| 29 | Louisville, Kentucky | 620,118 | 40,377,482 |
| 30 | Baltimore, Maryland | 602,495 | 40,979,977 |
| 31 | Milwaukee, Wisconsin | 592,025 | 41,572,002 |
| 32 | Albuquerque, New Mexico | 560,218 | 42,132,220 |
| 33 | Tucson, Arizona | 545,975 | 42,678,195 |
| 34 | Fresno, California | 530,093 | 43,208,288 |
| 35 | Mesa, Arizona | 508,958 | 43,717,246 |
| 36 | Sacramento, California | 508,529 | 44,225,775 |
| 37 | Atlanta, Georgia | 498,044 | 44,723,819 |
| 38 | Kansas City, Missouri | 491,918 | 45,215,737 |
| 39 | Colorado Springs, Colorado | 472,688 | 45,688,425 |
| 40 | Miami, Florida | 470,914 | 46,159,339 |
| 41 | Raleigh, North Carolina | 469,298 | 46,628,637 |
| 42 | Omaha, Nebraska | 468,262 | 47,096,899 |
| 43 | Long Beach, California | 467,354 | 47,564,253 |
| 44 | Virginia Beach, Virginia | 450,189 | 48,014,442 |
| 45 | Oakland, California | 429,082 | 48,443,524 |
| 46 | Minneapolis, Minnesota | 425,403 | 48,868,927 |
| 47 | Tulsa, Oklahoma | 400,669 | 49,269,596 |
| 48 | Arlington, Texas | 398,112 | 49,667,708 |
| 49 | Tampa, Florida | 392,890 | 50,060,598 |
| 50 | New Orleans, Louisiana | 391,006 | 50,451,604 |
Data taken from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_cities_by_population.
Original Submission #1 Original Submission #2 Original Submission #3 Original Submission #4 Original Submission #5
Coronavirus declared global health emergency by WHO
The new coronavirus has been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organization, as the outbreak continues to spread outside China.
"The main reason for this declaration is not what is happening in China but what is happening in other countries," said WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
The concern is that it could spread to countries with weaker health systems.
1st Person-To-Person Spread Of Coronavirus Has Occurred In U.S., CDC Says
Coronavirus: US reports first person-to-person transmission
Chicago health officials have reported the first US case of human-to-human transmission of the deadly coronavirus.
The new patient is the spouse of a Chicago woman who carried the infection back from Wuhan, China, the US Centers for Disease Control said on Thursday.
The discovery marks the second report of the virus in Illinois and the sixth confirmed case in the US.
This paper provides early estimates of 2019-nCoV epidemiological parameters: Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions (open, DOI: 10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549) (DX)
Used model does not offer much grounds for optimism.
China Reports 3rd Death, Nearly 140 New Cases of Coronavirus
China Confirms Human-To-Human Transmission of New Coronavirus; CDC Confirms First US Case
Coronavirus: Millions Quarantined in Wuhan City
China Battles Coronavirus Outbreak: All the Latest Updates
In The Pipeline: Coronavirus
Plague Inc. Maker: Don't use our Game for Coronavirus Modeling
Original Submission #1 Original Submission #2 Original Submission #3
This story is a roundup of several virus stories that were submitted over the past few days. This is a changing story, so some of what is posted below may have changed since the time of their originally being published.
What's in a name? One significant change is what the names are for everything. There is the question of what to call the actual virus and then what to call it when someone is infected.
Virus: The virus by itself is now officially referred to as SARS-CoV-2 (Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2). It was formerly known as 2019-nCoV (2019 novel coronavirus).
Disease: Those who have been infected by this virus are said to have a disease. The name of the disease is coronavirus disease (COVID-19) which is also known as 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease.
More details are available on Wikipedia.
The six submitted stories are presented below.
NIH Official Says Coronavirus 'on the Verge' of Becoming Global Pandemic Unless Containment Improves
NIH official says coronavirus 'on the verge' of becoming global pandemic unless containment becomes 'more successful':
Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CBS's "Face The Nation" that multiple person-to-person transmissions need to occur in multiple countries in order to reach the pandemic threshold.
[...] "Technically speaking, the [World Health Organization] wouldn't be calling this a global pandemic. But it certainly is on the verge of that happening reasonably soon unless containment is more successful than it is right now," he said.
Even though it has only been a short while since our last round-up there are 22 separate stories merged into this round-up. Many report duplicate news but, nevertheless, we have tried to distill the important elements of each submission.
Firstly, there is some confusion regarding the actual names that are reported for the virus, the disease that it causes, and names frequently seen in media reporting. From https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0695-z:
The present outbreak of a coronavirus-associated acute respiratory disease called coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) is the third documented spillover of an animal coronavirus to humans in only two decades that has resulted in a major epidemic. The Coronaviridae Study Group (CSG) of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, which is responsible for developing the classification of viruses and taxon nomenclature of the family Coronaviridae, has assessed the placement of the human pathogen, tentatively named 2019-nCoV, within the Coronaviridae. Based on phylogeny, taxonomy and established practice, the CSG recognizes this virus as forming a sister clade to the prototype human and bat severe acute respiratory syndrome coronaviruses (SARS-CoVs) of the species Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus, and designates it as SARS-CoV-2.
In order to facilitate communication, the CSG proposes to use the following naming convention for individual isolates: SARS-CoV-2/host/location/isolate/date. While the full spectrum of clinical manifestations associated with SARS-CoV-2 infections in humans remains to be determined, the independent zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 highlights the need for studying viruses at the species level to complement research focused on individual pathogenic viruses of immediate significance. This will improve our understanding of virus–host interactions in an ever-changing environment and enhance our preparedness for future outbreaks.
There is much more information at the link provided.
Secondly, as this is a fusion of stories received over the last week or so take all quoted figures of casualties as possibly out-of-date. At the time of merging these stories (12 Mar 20) there have been 127,863 confirmed cases world-wide resulting in 4,717 deaths. 68,309 people have already recovered with the remainder either in self-imposed or advisory isolation, in basic hospital care and a relatively small number in critical care. The pandemic has affected 116 countries/regions. Source: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 - a graphical display produced by Johns Hopkins University (JHU).
Many countries have taken emergency measures to restrict travel or large gatherings of people. As this is a very fluid situation we suggest you refer to the media of any specific country in which you have an interest. President Trump has banned transatlantic air travel from countries in mainland Europe to the USA from Friday 2020-03-13 at 23:59 (no timezone stated) for a period initially of 30 days, and air travel within Europe is also significantly disrupted.
A lot has already happened this year. SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) which can cause COVID-19 (COronaVIrus Disease 2019) has been making headlines shortly after it was first reported. The first cases were reported to WHO (World Health Organization) on 2019-12-31. The virus spread. It began as an epidemic in China . The world watched apprehensively. Reports surfaced of cases in other countries and the the apprehension grew. For many folk, it turned to fear when it was upgraded to a pandemic: WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 11 March 2020: "We have therefore made the assessment that COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic."
We have seen increasing efforts to stem the spread of the disease. Efforts have run the gamut. Closing of borders. Cancellation of sporting events. Conferences cancelled. Churches and other places of worship also closed. Schools closed. Panic buying of household goods and supplies. Supply chain disruptions affecting manufacturers. Restaurant, bars, and other such establishments closed. Work-from-home policies established and enacted.
The changes have been many, widespread, and continuing.
Reading about all the ways that "other people" have been affected is one thing. It seems different, somehow, when it hits closer to home and affects us directly. With many of our usual social activities curtailed or cancelled, it is easy to begin isolating and lose perspective. SoylentNews arose from a troubled period (the SlashCott) and a community has formed from that challenging period.
How have you been affected? Have you been infected? Had a family member or friend who was? Helped neighbors who are struggling? Hunkering down and isolating? (In a basement is optional.) Are you suddenly working from home and finding it challenging to manage your time? Still working on site, but now have a faster commute due to all the other people staying home? Catching up on watching TV shows? Reading more SoylentNews? How has your life changed?
From a somewhat different perspective, how have others helped you to cope... and how have you been able to help others? One of the potential impacts of social distancing is isolation and depression. I count myself fortunate, indeed, to have served this site for over 6 years and for all the people I have gotten to know, here. For those who may not be aware, SoylentNews has its own IRC (Internet Relay Chat) server. Feel free to drop in to #Soylent and just say "Hi!"
Social distancing is permanent when you're dead. So, practice good hygiene and stay safe.
Previously (oldest first):
China Battles Coronavirus Outbreak: All the Latest Updates
2019-nCoV Coronavirus Story Roundup
Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Roundup
Coronavirus Roundup (Feb. 17)
Roundup of Stories about the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus and COVID-19 Disease
COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 - CoronaVirus) Roundup
CoronaVirus (SARS-CoV-2) Roundup 2020-03-12
Working from Home: Lessons Learned Over 20 Years
This story presents a roundup of a selection of our COVID-19, SARS-Cov-2, coronavirus story submissions. Some stories have been omitted because they were a duplicate, outdated, superseded, and sometimes just as a matter of keeping the size of these roundups managable. etc. (Before thinning, this story contained over 16,500 words (excluding HTML markup) and that excluded what is contained in this introduction.
If you are not interested in this coverage, then please ignore this story; another story will appear presently. Otherwise, please see the rest of the story below the fold:
This story is a merge of 30 story submissions. Given that it was well over 17,000 words of original source material (excluding HTML markup!), a great deal of pruning was performed to get it to a manageable size. I strongly encourage folks to read the linked articles for more information.
For latest statistics, and finer granularity, see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.
As of 20200330_151936 UTC, it reported these world-wide totals:
- Coronavirus Cases: 743,081
- Deaths: 35,347
- Recovered: 157,046
- Active Cases:
- 550,688 (Currently Infected Patients)
- 522,206 (95%) in Mild Condition
- 28,482 (5%) Serious or Critical
- Closed Cases:
- 192,393 Cases which had an outcome
- 157,046 (82%) Recovered / Discharged
- 35,347 (18%) Deaths
Stories appear below the fold.
World-wide data as of: 20200615_140637 UTC:
(Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @06:41AM
Novell does corona virii? I thought they just killed WordPerfect, because of a payoff my Micro$erf. Amazing what corporations are capable of these days!
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @06:44AM
Not one of these merged submissions was submitted by Runaway, so I am not believing any of them. Diseases from having sex with animals! Ha! Any true Arkansasian knows that't not true. Or, hopes it's not true.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @06:48AM (12 children)
(Score: 4, Informative) by janrinok on Saturday February 08 2020, @07:43AM (3 children)
Read the story - we cover that in the roundup.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by pkrasimirov on Saturday February 08 2020, @08:49AM (2 children)
Janrinok, that's a lot of work you did here and I thank you for that. I mean this is the longest post I've ever seen on SN.
(Score: 3, Informative) by janrinok on Saturday February 08 2020, @08:57AM (1 child)
Thanks for your comment, but actually it was a team effort. I just started the ball rolling on this particular roundup so my name shows at the top of the story.
And it is not the longest story that we have printed - martyb's investigation report into the missing journal entry was longer still and the report took over a week to write. The investigation itself took much longer, of course.
(Score: 2) by pkrasimirov on Saturday February 08 2020, @11:01AM
Okay, the above are news or an aggregation of them. Thanks to all involved!
The "missing" journal entry was a quest saga.
(Score: 2) by deimtee on Saturday February 08 2020, @10:27AM (7 children)
The interesting thing from that story is the constant percentage death rates they quote, from the official data.
Exactly 3.1% for several days, then it abruptly lowers to exactly 2.1% and stays there. I would consider those numbers to be suspicious.
No problem is insoluble, but at Ksp = 2.943×10−25 Mercury Sulphide comes close.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @10:44AM (5 children)
(Score: 2) by deimtee on Saturday February 08 2020, @11:23AM (2 children)
If you roll a million D20's you are going to average very very close to 10.5
If you roll 100 D20's each day you are very rarely going to get a total of 1050.
5 days in a row, with very different infected / death numbers, but every time the death rate is exactly 3.1% That looks like someone set it, not accurate reporting.
No problem is insoluble, but at Ksp = 2.943×10−25 Mercury Sulphide comes close.
(Score: 2) by hendrikboom on Monday February 10 2020, @04:11PM (1 child)
Maybe they don't update the number every day.
(Score: 2) by deimtee on Tuesday February 11 2020, @01:49AM
I decided to check it a bit more. TaiwanNews may be cherry picking the date ranges, but the numbers are updating. From the Taiwan news article, the Tencent rates. (I went to more significant figures than are justified). Not quite as suspicious as they implied, but still oddly consistent :
No problem is insoluble, but at Ksp = 2.943×10−25 Mercury Sulphide comes close.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @12:21PM (1 child)
Because in noisy systems there's noise. For two signals to have values with a ratio within 1/40th of each other at so many sampling times is statistically improbable. And for the mortality rate to go from 3.1% to 2.1% and stay there is a lie. Why? because that means you've injected +50% new 'survivor' cases, and then - well I'll leave further analysis to you, but clearly these are fudged numbers. Anyone claiming otherwise doesn't understand statistics.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday February 08 2020, @01:11PM
No, it'd be more like +1% survivor cases. Think about it.
Also, you can take the number of deaths divide by the number of total cases and see what happens. Maybe it's not 3.1% for those five days.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @12:49PM
These figures would surely demonstrate control measures and early treatments are effective?
(Score: 2) by krishnoid on Saturday February 08 2020, @07:15AM (1 child)
I really hope they're not "wartime" desperate [youtube.com] (opening scene of Outbreak).
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @07:21AM
Spray and pray.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @07:30AM (6 children)
...but apparently not to the extreme of accepting assistance from the CDC and WHO. What does China not want the rest of the world to see?
There have been other pandemics, some of which killed far more people or have been far deadlier than this. The flu epidemic in 1918 was particularly severe. And there were multiple outbreaks of the bubonic plague which were also quite deadly. The breakdown of society is far more unsettling to me than the actual virus.
If we were to accept the higher numbers of infections and deaths in China, that's a mortality rate a bit under one in six. That's a high rate of mortality, but would probably be exacerbated due to the inability of people to receive treatment. The sheer number of people infected would place an extreme toll on the health care system. However, that is partly the result of the initial coverup and lack of action to stop the virus from spreading. The quarantine certainly makes the situation worse.
Based on the official numbers, the death toll in Wuhan is 4.1% versus 0.17% in the rest of China. While the virus is the official cause of death, it seems we should be far more concerned about the resulting panic, breakdown of society, and humanitarian crisis.
Also, here's an interesting quote for those who would be willing to censor speech to limit the spread of misinformation, trolling, and conspiracy theories: (Source: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanhatesthis/as-chinese-internet-users-try-to-track-the-coronavirus [buzzfeednews.com])
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @09:10AM
> What does China not want the rest of the world to see?
Isnt' it obvious? They don't want to be in the backward 3rd world aid-receiving club. China is very Important and no Problems, you see?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @12:54PM (3 children)
Look up "saving face" in Chinese culture. It is not like in other cultures. That's why they are the first with a social credit score.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday February 08 2020, @01:21PM (2 children)
I can think of a lot of other cultures where saving face is just as big a deal.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @02:08PM (1 child)
> I can think of a lot of other cultures where saving face is just as big a deal.
Sure (although you didn't name any). However, there are more faces to be saved in China than any other country (based on population...)
(Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday February 08 2020, @03:23PM
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @08:33PM
I sometimes attend an international trade show, which is in Germany this year, so I get their adverts. Latest email quoted here--
(Score: 2) by Dr Spin on Saturday February 08 2020, @08:01AM (11 children)
While not wishing to take a stance on the credibility of Chinese figures, I would like to point out that these people, if not trouble makers or idiots, have a poor understanding of the underlying issues, particularly how maths actually works.
Nuclear reactions show exponential growth - one atom exploded, gives out N particles, a percentage P of which trigger M further explosions.
M = N * P
so, next iteration after time 1 you have N * P * (N * P).
After time t you have N * P)^t.
With Coronavirus, people are not radioactive particles, and don't behave like them.
Lets say we have a family with two parents, two children and two grandparents (so, not my family then).
Mum goes to work as a nurse, and gets infected. However, she is a 30-something non smoker, and just coughs a bit. .
She comes home and infects the rest of the family. The grandparents gradually get sick, and stay at home. They probably die, but not infect anyone else.
The children show no symptoms, and go to school, where they run aound screaming and playing tag, and infect all the other kids on day two.
Day three, the other kids have infected their families. The adults go to work and infect their cow-orkers.
Now the big unknowns here are:
Assuming infection happens with a single contact, which is certainly possible, but possibly rare.
You need to include all of these unknowns in your formula, and it is not going to be an exponential because exponentials happen when the result depends on a single parameter. I have identified seven, and as an infamous American politician has pointed out - there are known unknowns and unknown unknowns.
Generally, I would say, even if you are already sick, it is better to get infected early - while the hospitals are not bursting at the seams, than to isolate yourself in you mum's basement and not get infected until after the medical supplies are exhausted.
And above all, do not believe random idiots posting on Youtube, regardless of nationality, race or religions, or anybody who uses facepalm or twitnit. Or go on cruise ships if you are retired.
Warning: Opening your mouth may invalidate your brain!
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @08:21AM (1 child)
Shortage of testing kits [businessinsider.com] vs. uncountable increase in infected. People are also staying home because they don't want to be put in a hastily constructed death camp. We need a count of the amount of bodies being dumped into the incinerators.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by janrinok on Saturday February 08 2020, @09:06AM
That would certainly give us a rough estimate of what was actually happening. But how can you be sure that they died of the virus and not some other underlying condition, or something entirely unrelated to the virus?
We are unlikely to get such figures from any authoritative source at present, hence why much of the 'reporting' that we are seeing is nothing more than speculation, or is limited to those facts that can be independently verified which tends to under report the true figures.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by c0lo on Saturday February 08 2020, @08:59AM (4 children)
And spend you life-dream holiday in a quarantine in Japan [channelnewsasia.com] or New Jersey [cnn.com].
What's worse: be stuck on a cruise with confirmed coronavirus infection or on one that doesn't leave the port but nobody knows if it is or not?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @09:13AM (3 children)
What's worse: be stuck on a country with confirmed coronavirus infection or on one that doesn't leave the port but nobody knows if it is or not?
(Score: 3, Funny) by maxwell demon on Saturday February 08 2020, @11:06AM (2 children)
I've never heard about a country leaving the port. Usually countries are not moving around very much (there's a bit of plate tectonics, but that's it). Even in war times, usually countries expand or shrink, possibly even vanish, but only very rarely move.
The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
(Score: 1, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @11:46AM (1 child)
I've never heard about a country leaving the port.
In a word: Brexit!
Boris has sworn to tow the UK out into the Atlantic and sink it. Just to please Rees-Mogg and his Moggies
(Score: 2) by maxwell demon on Saturday February 08 2020, @05:47PM
I see. And a time traveller then went back to Ancient Greece and told Plato about Brexit, and Plato mistook "Atlantic" for the name of the country, and thus the legend of Atlantis was born. :-)
The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @01:13PM (2 children)
Why not simply look at the R0 and Re figures? [theconversation.com]
(Score: 2) by Dr Spin on Saturday February 08 2020, @01:38PM (1 child)
Why not simply look at the R0 and Re figures?
Because the problem is not simple. Even the article you sited mentioned that "R0" is not really a single figure.
I was making the point that, in real life it has a multi-dimensional cloud of figures, and expecting results based
on it having a single value is going to leave you disappointed/confused/befuddled - and if you want to feel
that way, drinking alcohol and using Facepalm is a more effective way of getting there.
OTOH, if you need to explain your results to government ministers and tabloid readers, your explanation needs to
fit the attention span of a goldfish. (Hence the widespread practice of simplifying until the facts are totally lost).
Warning: Opening your mouth may invalidate your brain!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @02:55PM
The estimates change over time but they do account for many of things you listed (eg: homebound elderly). Using an average to construct a reducible problem is the basis of statistical analysis. With a contagious outbreak, forward projections must be based on reverse engineering available data. Having a single digit or range is useful because even people who do not understand exponential growth can compare with previous outbreaks to asses risk. That is all the info decision makers need, people like ourselves having pontificated upon the finer details for them.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by khallow on Saturday February 08 2020, @01:27PM
Isolating yourself in your mum's basement and not getting infected at all would be vastly superior to either of the two scenarios above. I pick that one.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @11:30AM
I once found a papyrus, it told the story of Osiris
but when i lifted eyelids something got in my iris.
* it was corona - coronavirus * *oh yeah *
* it is the source of ires * *oh no*
" corona - coronavirus * *oh yeah *
"and now is time to die yes*
(song ends here as everyone is dead)
(Score: 2) by inertnet on Saturday February 08 2020, @11:31AM (3 children)
Chinese scientists now say [cbsnews.com] that anteaters are a possible source of the virus.
(Score: 1, Redundant) by HiThere on Saturday February 08 2020, @12:14PM (1 child)
"Possible". OK. But don't take that as any measure of certainty.
(Score: 0, Redundant) by khallow on Saturday February 08 2020, @04:00PM
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @12:15PM
Hi ant hive mind here. I can confirm this is true.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @02:15PM (3 children)
http://news.mit.edu/2020/slow-epidemic-airport-handwashing-0206 [mit.edu] Link describes a study done last fall (pre coronavirus) that modeled disease transmission around the world. Here are the first several paragraphs. The article has a link to the paper. The model described seems to be fairly complex (but of course it is a model, not reality).
(Score: 2) by maxwell demon on Saturday February 08 2020, @05:57PM (2 children)
Next step: Make hand-washing mandatory when entering the airport. Forget the security line. Now you'll be waiting in the hand-washing line!
Actually, one could make it more thorough: You are required to take a full shower. To save time, that could also be coupled with security. After all, there's no need for a naked scanner if you're already getting naked for showering anyway. ;-)
The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @06:59PM
I've heard that the Aussies fumigate the cabins of airplanes (international flights) to kill bugs (insects) that might cause trouble...before anyone exits the plane.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @08:11PM
It's possible that requiring hand washing before entering the airport and having sinks outside the bathroom so that cameras and people can make sure you wash your hands after you leave the bathroom will probably end up saving more lives and costing less in time and money than having the TSA
(Score: 3, Funny) by jmichaelhudsondotnet on Saturday February 08 2020, @02:28PM (5 children)
For those who did not read my journal, on tuesday at my local market here in Bellevue, Saarbrucken, Germany, I snuck out in the afternoon around 2pm to stock up on some things. I intentionally went when there would be few people, and the exact time I went was as near to random as I can imagine. Not written down, not telephoned, I did not know I was going until I was getting dressed.
300 meter walk, 15 minutes later, I have my bag full and I'm half done, a chinese-looking guy walks in and starts a conversation on his phone. I hear the tonal chinese language. He doesn't look at me but his phone camera points right at me. He is wearing colorless, baggy clothes like a lot of chinese do.
This not a chinese or immigrant neighbhorhood although I see people of other ethnicities regularly, this totally stood out as not normal.
I see him wipe his nose with his bare hand. He checks out. I check out. I think wtf.
q1 What are the chances I encounter a chinese person on tuesday at 2pm at bismor in bellevue? (my answser, near 0)
q2 What might have been his mission? (my answer, to observe, intimidate, scare or spread chaos, or to spread something else)
This line, 'order out of chaos' strikes me in this moment. What if those up top decided this was inevitable, some virus was going to get out, so why not get ahead of it. And if they though that, they might think, why don't we take care of other problems at the same time.
So when the dust settles, is this virus going to result in a much higher percentage of xi critics, human rights activists, and all manner of other people inconvenient to totalitarian governance 'dying of the virus'?
What if there were two viruses? A slow one with 1/6 mortality and a fast one with 5/6 mortality, and in the chaos they seek out their enemies and give all of them the fast one?
Has anyone read the book Nexus? Which is to say, what if nanoweapons are in play here?
There have been times I have considered myself a chair sitting pogue, someone far removed from the front lines of conflict, but is it not now clear that there are no front lines? That civilians are now under a similar threat as soldiers? And that in this conflict no one is even going to tell the civilians what the sides are or what weapons are in play?
I would love to hear one of those people from a few years back come here and tell me that 'we can trust the rich people to manage society because they don't want their profits to be affected' or even, dare you even recall, the reaganic panacea of 'The Invisible Hand'? Invisible hand, meet the coronavirus.
'That's not a knife, THIS is a knife!' comes to mind from mr dundee's nifty if problematic motion picture.
https://archive.is/OPkTH [archive.is] everyone in this picture is probably already underground
https://archive.is/KSdMl [archive.is] never forget what their priorities were post-epstein pre-corona
Ill keep you posted over the next two weeks as we determine if I am being assassinated.
(Score: 2, Informative) by khallow on Saturday February 08 2020, @03:59PM (3 children)
What are the chances of dozens or hundreds of low probability events happening to you every time you get up in the morning? Pretty damn good. Just because you saw a low probability event doesn't mean much when you're in a sea of them.
(Score: 2) by jmichaelhudsondotnet on Sunday February 09 2020, @03:29PM (2 children)
Never said it was dozens. I never ever said that. Cumulatively, when you are being stalked by APT's, it adds up to dozens of encounters, yes this is true, but spread out over your entire life. It really sucks, appreciate your sympathy, /s.
JTRIG tactic, always always cast aspersions and restate the targets claims in the most absurd, exagerated and humiliating way possible.
article about china targetting americans:
And these are for you,
The truer something is, the more stooges like you show up to fling shit. So thanks for helping confirm! You are doing your part, even if it is exactly the opposite of what you think you are trying to dol, so keep it up!
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday February 09 2020, @06:05PM (1 child)
I said that. You just didn't notice them because they didn't trigger your paranoia. Confirmation bias is a powerful thing.
What could you be doing that stalking by "APT's" (advanced persistent threat, right?) would make sense? They don't have infinite resources to throw at every conspiracy webpage and/or anti-Semite on the internet. You need to be doing something worth responding to, first.
Not the way I see it. There's a zillion people on the internet claiming truth all the time. I look for evidence not some dude fumbling with a cell phone at the checkout counter.
Further, you think this is "flinging shit"? I can show you a bunch of replies to my posts that are genuine flinging of shit. Doesn't make my stuff any truer.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 10 2020, @05:23AM
I read that as "Adult Pedophile Tyrannosauruses". Or "Automatic Penetration Tool"? Perhaps "Always Paranoid Tossers". Could be worse, could be being stalked by copyrighted APIs! No escape, then.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @04:12PM
Sigh, we're letting everybody in.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @03:00PM
i am going to go with the theory that these "china outbreaks" have happen before in the last 50 years or so, for sure.
the "problem" was that back in, say 1983, not everyone had a camera and world-wide connection wired to his brain; china (and us) was more bicycle and less car, that is to say, less connected.
so if this happened 30 years ago, just the same, lots of people would die and no one would care (or know) much, not even the (non-clubberment) chinese themselves ...
also, if you want to see something (focuse attention) you will see it everywhere (selectif perception).
also a "known unknown" is just "a unknown" and a "unknown unknown" doesn't exists but is a really smart term to write "zeros" into the brain (dd if=/dev/urandom of=/dev/sdX).
another (less sexy way) to formulate "unknown unknowns" is "keep worrying!" ^_^
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @04:41PM (2 children)
What a beautiful thought. Can you imagine doing just that, and rebuilding ourselves an agrarian nation as TJ intended.
(Score: 2) by legont on Saturday February 08 2020, @06:05PM
Enjoyed last night https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escape_from_New_York [wikipedia.org]
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday February 09 2020, @06:15PM
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @08:10PM
"A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster"
Soothing reassurances are nice and all, but not when they contradict observed and published facts.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @08:30PM (5 children)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 08 2020, @08:40PM
spoiler -- if that guy is a bio weapons expert, so am I (when I don't clean the toilet frequently).
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 10 2020, @11:08PM
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 10 2020, @11:11PM (2 children)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 10 2020, @11:27PM (1 child)
Would you have believed him if he had flatly denied it?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 10 2020, @11:33PM
yeah shitty headline but actually pretty good article.