from the maybe-it-is-not-such-a-bad-time-to-be-living-alone-in-someone's-basement dept.
[Editor's note: We had been gathering together COVID-19 stories for eventual release as a round-up story. I lack time at the moment to personally gather all those together with this most recent submission. We will run the next round-up in the next few days. But given the significance of this submission, I wished not to delay it from being immediately released to the community. --martyb]
World Health Organization declares the coronavirus outbreak a global pandemic:
The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic on Wednesday as the new coronavirus, which was unknown to world health officials just three months ago, has rapidly spread to more than 121,000 people from Asia, the Middle East, Europe and the United States.
“In the past two weeks the number of cases outside China has increased thirteenfold and the number of affected countries has tripled,” WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said at a press conference at the organization’s headquarters in Geneva. “In the days and weeks ahead, we expect to see the number of cases, the number of deaths and the number of affected countries to climb even higher.”
Tedros said several countries have demonstrated the ability to suppress and control the outbreak, but he scolded other world leaders for failing to act quickly enough or drastically enough to contain the spread.
“We’re deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction,” he said, just before declaring the pandemic. “We have rung the alarm bell loud and clear.”
[Ed. addition follows.]
Also at Ars Technica and cnet.
For those who might not be aware of the distinction, Wikipedia helpfully provides these summaries:
An epidemic (what we have had up to now with COVID-19):
An epidemic (from Greek ἐπί epi "upon or above" and δῆμος demos "people") is the rapid spread of infectious disease to a large number of people in a given population within a short period of time, usually two weeks or less.
[...]An epidemic may be restricted to one location; however, if it spreads to other countries or continents and affects a substantial number of people, it may be termed a pandemic.[1] The declaration of an epidemic usually requires a good understanding of a baseline rate of incidence; epidemics for certain diseases, such as influenza, are defined as reaching some defined increase in incidence above this baseline.[2] A few cases of a very rare disease may be classified as an epidemic, while many cases of a common disease (such as the common cold) would not.
By comparison, a pandemic (which has just now been announced for COVID-19):
A pandemic (from Greek πᾶν pan "all" and δῆμος demos "people") is an epidemic of disease that has spread across a large region; for instance multiple continents, or worldwide. A widespread endemic disease that is stable in terms of how many people are getting sick from it is not a pandemic. Further, flu pandemics generally exclude recurrences of seasonal flu. Throughout history, there have been a number of pandemics, such as smallpox and tuberculosis. One of the most devastating pandemics was the Black Death, which killed an estimated 75–200 million people in the 14th century. The current pandemics are HIV/AIDS and Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).[1][2] Other recent pandemics are the 1918 influenza pandemic (Spanish flu), and the 2009 flu pandemic (H1N1).
Related Stories
Even though it has only been a short while since our last round-up there are 22 separate stories merged into this round-up. Many report duplicate news but, nevertheless, we have tried to distill the important elements of each submission.
Firstly, there is some confusion regarding the actual names that are reported for the virus, the disease that it causes, and names frequently seen in media reporting. From https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0695-z:
The present outbreak of a coronavirus-associated acute respiratory disease called coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) is the third documented spillover of an animal coronavirus to humans in only two decades that has resulted in a major epidemic. The Coronaviridae Study Group (CSG) of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, which is responsible for developing the classification of viruses and taxon nomenclature of the family Coronaviridae, has assessed the placement of the human pathogen, tentatively named 2019-nCoV, within the Coronaviridae. Based on phylogeny, taxonomy and established practice, the CSG recognizes this virus as forming a sister clade to the prototype human and bat severe acute respiratory syndrome coronaviruses (SARS-CoVs) of the species Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus, and designates it as SARS-CoV-2.
In order to facilitate communication, the CSG proposes to use the following naming convention for individual isolates: SARS-CoV-2/host/location/isolate/date. While the full spectrum of clinical manifestations associated with SARS-CoV-2 infections in humans remains to be determined, the independent zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 highlights the need for studying viruses at the species level to complement research focused on individual pathogenic viruses of immediate significance. This will improve our understanding of virus–host interactions in an ever-changing environment and enhance our preparedness for future outbreaks.
There is much more information at the link provided.
Secondly, as this is a fusion of stories received over the last week or so take all quoted figures of casualties as possibly out-of-date. At the time of merging these stories (12 Mar 20) there have been 127,863 confirmed cases world-wide resulting in 4,717 deaths. 68,309 people have already recovered with the remainder either in self-imposed or advisory isolation, in basic hospital care and a relatively small number in critical care. The pandemic has affected 116 countries/regions. Source: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 - a graphical display produced by Johns Hopkins University (JHU).
Many countries have taken emergency measures to restrict travel or large gatherings of people. As this is a very fluid situation we suggest you refer to the media of any specific country in which you have an interest. President Trump has banned transatlantic air travel from countries in mainland Europe to the USA from Friday 2020-03-13 at 23:59 (no timezone stated) for a period initially of 30 days, and air travel within Europe is also significantly disrupted.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by DannyB on Wednesday March 11 2020, @08:16PM (73 children)
Imagine if we had test kits in the US for coronavirus.
We might actually know what the actual infection rate really is.
We might be in for a surprise. Two weeks. [youtube.com]
New US policy: Ignorance is bliss.
Ignorance is more gooder for you. We shore don't need no scientists. And intellectuals.
The lower I set my standards the more accomplishments I have.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 11 2020, @08:38PM (55 children)
Like South Korea? Where they used a quick rest and got slammed by the WHO for having so many infections?
Goddamn stupid hype. It's a cold virus, spreading like wildfire is what it does. Most people get over it. It's not even the flu.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by DannyB on Wednesday March 11 2020, @08:51PM (1 child)
I'm so glad to have your advice that is contrary to what all the experts are saying.
It's definitely not necessary to take any sensible precautions. What do those silly experts know. We don't need no testing kits.
The lower I set my standards the more accomplishments I have.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 12 2020, @01:40AM
Fake News...Cough...Cough
(Score: 5, Informative) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday March 11 2020, @08:52PM (11 children)
We could only dream to have as competent response as South Korea's has been.
South Korea has tested 140,000 people for the coronavirus. That could explain why its death rate is just 0.6% — far lower than in China or the US. [businessinsider.com]
(Score: 2) by RamiK on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:52PM (3 children)
Honestly it might be a difference in book keeping: Depending on the country and the condition, complications might be written down as the cause of death rather than the original disease / trauma. For instance, most people dying from the flu are counted as lung infections or some other complication rather than the flu. It's why you have some sources quoting 0.1% mortality for the flu and others quoting as much as 4%. Similarly, COVID-19 rarely kills directly and deaths are almost always the result of complications.
compiling...
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:20PM (1 child)
Or it might be that they responded VERY FUCKING AGGRESSIVELY AND TESTED EVERYONE THAT THEY COULD GET THEIR HANDS ON. Pretty much the exact opposite of what the USA did, eg. send
vectoruntrained staff in to socialize with people who were supposed to be under quarantine and then send them back home on commercial flights. It is a testament to the medical profession that no doctor has strangled $45 in a meeting.(Score: 3, Funny) by Thexalon on Thursday March 12 2020, @02:54AM
They might not need to - there's good reason to think he's infected.
The only thing that stops a bad guy with a compiler is a good guy with a compiler.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 12 2020, @12:45AM
This isn't a bookkeeping issue. Even having a more complete count of who is infected probably doesn't quite explain the low death rate. South Korea's approach is effective and is much better than what we've seen in China and Italy, let alone the United States. The economic impact is also far less because massive quarantines aren't needed. If infected people are tested early, it reduces the opportunity for them to spread the virus. That will reduce the burden on hospitals, making it much easier to treat those who are seriously ill. It may also allow for supportive treatment to begin earlier, like managing the fever and inflammation. In short, the frequent and early testing may directly contribute to better outcomes.
South Korea is also using a considerable amount of big brother surveillance to try to track who may have come in contact with an infected person. While the surveillance is a bit controversial, we shouldn't pretend that such surveillance isn't present in the United States. Maybe we should put the NSA/other law enforcement surveillance to good use for once and alert people who may be infected to go get tested. Of course, that would reveal the extent of the surveillance, though you'd have to be incredibly naive to think such capabilities don't already exist. And it would require enough test kits, which is a much bigger problem. If we were going to refuse the WHO test kits, we still had a month to prepare our own tests... and utterly and abysmally failed.
(Score: 2) by Freeman on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:58PM (4 children)
Well, we did have the whole bunch of people come over from that cruise ship. Maybe, South Korea was a bit more proactive/paranoid when it came to dealing with likely and/or known infected citizens?
Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
(Score: 2) by HiThere on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:43PM (3 children)
The cruise ship was already late in the process. The critical phase was when people left Wuhan before the disease was recognized after a meeting on ?maybe?"The Lunar New Year Festival". Sorry, that might not be the correct meeting. But that was after the disease was spreading and before it was recognized, and people went from there all over the world. (I think there was another big exodus right before the quarantine, but that was too late to really be the first wave of spread.
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 2) by Freeman on Wednesday March 11 2020, @11:20PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_New_Year [wikipedia.org]
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/doctor-who-treated-first-us-coronavirus-patient-says-covid-19-has-been-circulating-unchecked-for-weeks.html [cnbc.com]
So, we were already screwed by the time the Chinese New Year rolled around.
Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Wednesday March 11 2020, @11:44PM
Nah, it was the Woz:
https://www.clickorlando.com/inside-edition/2020/03/04/coronavirus-patient-zero-apple-co-founder-steve-wozniak-says-he-and-wife-may-be-responsible-for-us-outbreak/ [clickorlando.com]
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2, Informative) by Sulla on Wednesday March 11 2020, @11:51PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/world/asia/chinese-doctor-Li-Wenliang-coronavirus.html [nytimes.com]
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/world/asia/Li-Wenliang-china-coronavirus.html [nytimes.com]
Ceterum censeo Sinae esse delendam
(Score: 2) by legont on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:14PM (1 child)
Yes, they are good. It did help that they had a very narrow vector through that jesus sect and it is yet to be seen they really contained the bug, but they sure reacted well.
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:33PM
Don't fuck with korean jesus.
He busy, with korean shit.
(Score: 2) by Freeman on Wednesday March 11 2020, @08:54PM (30 children)
If by most, you mean, possibly up to 15% of certain demographics dying from said disease, then sure. Most people get over it. Even, if 49.99% of people that contracted the virus died. Then, most people would have survived it.
Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
(Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday March 11 2020, @08:59PM (29 children)
Let's call it a low-ball 50% of people in the US get it.
And let's use South Korea's death rate that I cited above: 0.6%
There are 327 million people in the US
327,000,000 * 0.5 * 0.06 = 9,810,000 dead people!
(Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:01PM (27 children)
0.006 lol!
about a million dead folks...
(Score: 4, Insightful) by DannyB on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:05PM (26 children)
It's more than a million dead folks.
It's the fear and panic that comes with it as it happens. The businesses that don't survive. (corporations are people too!) People who lose their jobs. People who lose their homes.
There is much more suffering than just the cold numbers of the loss of life.
The lower I set my standards the more accomplishments I have.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:09PM (25 children)
A raise I was supposed to get in April has been postponed until further notice.
At my wife's work, a charter contract that was going to earn them $100k just got cancelled.
This is definitely going to kick us square in the economy. Which was only hanging on because of massive deficit spending anyway...
(Score: 5, Touché) by DannyB on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:21PM (14 children)
No matter how badly things get for most people, we must not tax the wealthiest 3 men in the country who own more than the bottom 50 % put together.
The lower I set my standards the more accomplishments I have.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:57PM (7 children)
Though your sentiment is praise worthy, your it is misdirected. We need corporate regulation more than anything else. Specifically, corporations who do business internationally. These are the entities that are stealing the wealth of real prople and causing societal unrest. If these corporations have so much extra profit that buying legislation can be rolled into the cost of doing business then they are pretty obviously not paying back into.the community, and are in fact provably detrimental to the average person. The super wealthy are just along for the ride and act as convenient lightning rods for degenerative rhetoric. Bust the trusts!
(Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:10PM (6 children)
Unfortunately, the only way to really combat this at the top level is some kind of global governance, and I don think anybody that loves diversity or growth would like that very much. Money has no real borders, but people do.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:14PM (5 children)
Bullshit. Countries can use diplomacy to structure economics without destroying cultures.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:16PM (4 children)
Not while the same people that are making the money are signing the bills
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:18PM (3 children)
So what, you want human nature to suddenly not apply? People are going to do what benefits themselves, see all of human history.
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:24PM (2 children)
I think that there are plenty of examples of selflessness scattered throughout history. But to your point, hauling out a trope doesn't absolve people who make decisions from responsibility, even if the types of decisions they made to get to where they are are the ones that are detrimental to society as a whole. There must be better out there for us to implement, or else what's the point? Might as well just nuke it from orbit if that's the case.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:30PM (1 child)
Yeah, checks and balances. Welcome to the eighteenth century
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:32PM
Welcome to the circle jerk we call civilization schmucklehead
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:17PM
FTFY.
Let's be accurate here. [soylentnews.org] It certainly doesn't change the value of your point.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 12 2020, @02:47AM (3 children)
Bloomberg, Trump and Tom Steyer?
Democracy, ftw.
(Score: 4, Informative) by captain normal on Thursday March 12 2020, @04:31AM (1 child)
At least Bloomberg and Steyer can put together a coherent sentence.
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts"- --Daniel Patrick Moynihan--
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Thursday March 12 2020, @11:59AM
I don't like the coherent sentences Bloomberg puts together. Somehow they all come through as, "Fuck off and die, dirty peons."
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 2) by DannyB on Thursday March 12 2020, @05:15PM
Bloomberg and Steyer have a positive net worth.
The lower I set my standards the more accomplishments I have.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday March 12 2020, @04:28PM
Finally, those rich people are trying to be rich while most of the 50% aren't. And they pay plenty of taxes already.
Guess I'm tired of all this windmill tilting.
(Score: 2) by DannyB on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:22PM (5 children)
Oh, and I'm sorry to hear about the rough times. Hopefully it is not so bad as to destroy your life.
The lower I set my standards the more accomplishments I have.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:29PM (4 children)
I'd rather my work wake the fuck up and allow working from home during this emergency that to get that raise. As of now it looks like I'll be getting neither!
(We'll be fine though, thanks)
(Score: 2) by Freeman on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:50PM (3 children)
Convenience can definitely be a good incentive. Too bad, you're getting the inconvenience, disregard for health, and no raise options all rolled into one.
I'm still hopeful that it will be a lot less problematic than has been observed to this point. Lots more people actually having been infected, with a much lower death rate, similar to the existing flu troubles would be ideal. Assuming, we're stuck with it as a recurring virus. Even, if it's much more deadly for really old people. A much lower overall death rate would make it just another flu or a bad strain of the flu or something.
Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:54PM (2 children)
Death rates, phooey! I have been reduced to wiping my ass with Presidential tax returns, because of all of the irrational panic buying and hoarding. Most of the harm is going to be self-inflicted, I see. It is kind of like Microsoft Windows, in that regard.
(Score: 3, Funny) by Aegis on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:54PM (1 child)
Getting your hands on the president's tax returns, or toilet paper, would definitely be newsworthy!
(Score: 2) by MostCynical on Thursday March 12 2020, @02:25AM
Ebay has listings for alternatives [ebay.com.au]
"I guess once you start doubting, there's no end to it." -Batou, Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:44PM (3 children)
Isn't that what you've been wishing for? A tanking economy to have a chance at getting president Biden?
Glad you are materially affected too.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:50PM
Trump was eventually going to fail miserably at some disaster. A tanking economy would be the least terrible one he could make worse.
But don't you worry. I make enough money to profit off the recovery. The Trump voters on the other hand, not so much...
(Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Thursday March 12 2020, @12:56AM
Rot in hell, you ghoulish little troll.
I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
(Score: 3, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 12 2020, @01:58AM
Wow, the Schdenfreude when Trumpers have no one else they can possibly blame but the prez. Lul, your dude is a shitty scam artist who knows jack shit about anything but running scams.
Sorry bub, we liberals do not wish to harm ourselves just to keep "winning." That'd be you trumpettes.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:52PM
0.6% of people feeling sick enough to present at a health care facility.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by LaminatorX on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:03PM (4 children)
Compared to our regular dance with Influenza, this is more contagious in the early symptomatic phase - such that people who don't feel super-sick yet are shedding more live viruses as they go about their business hoping to "shake off this cold," significantly more deadly to the elderly, and less deadly to children (at least there's one bright point).
Based on the data from China, lot of seniors (and a few others) will die awaiting treatment if it spreads in an area faster than they can be treated with the finite amount of respiratory support hardware in their area. If the pace of new infections can be slowed such that everyone who needs respiratory support at a given time can get it, most of them will recover.
So yeah, not much worse than the flu to most of us, but easier to spread and more likely to wreck our elders. That's not the Black Death, nor even the Spanish Flu of a century ago (which massacred young children, count all the under-10 graves from a century back the next time you're in an old cemetary _shudder_), but it is worth taking seriously.
(Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:06PM (3 children)
It's also more dangerous than the flu because nobody is immune to any strain of it yet. (other than, potentially, recovered people)
The real risk, as you note, is it spreading so quickly that it overwhelms out support services. And a lack of immunity will certainly contribute to that. Also, a lack of doing anything to stop it from spreading, here in the US.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by ikanreed on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:41PM
Nah to a small part of your post, about 5% of common colds are caused by coronaviruses. That could imply that a fair number, though maybe not most, people have some level of immunity to similar infectious agents.
Obviously nowhere near enough to curtail the rapid spread. Nor specific enough to provide what we conventionally call "immunity"
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 12 2020, @02:41AM (1 child)
imagine this being a big thing not because of mortality rate but rather because it's a virus that the human immune system has trouble getting immune to.
this might be the big news: getting it, being sick, getting over it, walking out the door and being right on straight up reinfected with no immunity to show for. back to bed for you, again.
or maybe it's a "blow up" to distract or relable the impending global recession (that was looming on the horizon anyways)? or maybe that russian dirty open cycle atom splitting missile engine did work?
(Score: 0, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 12 2020, @02:57AM
Except that this is not true, completely false, in error, mendacious, a lie, incorrect, not factual, fake news, and does not comport with reality. You are just jealous because you contracted Troll virus, which is very hard to transmit, unless you engage in mucous membrane intercourse. Ewwwwwwwww!
(Score: 2) by legont on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:35PM (4 children)
Italy has death rate of 6+% even by wrong CDC measure.
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Sulla on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:56PM (2 children)
Age demographics
Italy population
Nearly 60% of the population is aged 40 and over, about 23% of which is over 65
South Korea
13% of the population is 65 and older
United States
16% of the population is 65 and older
So for the portions of the population who will primarily be affected, we should see significantly higher death rates in Italy (as a percentage). Of course if we add in those with underlying conditions (obesity, high blood pressure, diabetes) the US could end up with a worse rate than Italy.
Italy has also been refusing treatment for those older patients with underlying conditions in favor of younger healthier patients to focus resources on those who are more likely to survive. So far the US has taken the opposite approach and directed medical resources to be focused on our older populations (containment within retirement areas, etc) based on the SK numbers showing limited problems for people under 50. The Chinese numbers show that people under 40 have a .2% death rate (2xish the flu) and under 50 as .4ish. The Chinese numbers are tough to rely on because their test had 30-80% with false negative. The same test when used on the first patient in Washington would fluctuate between positive and negative throughout the day. I was unable to find resources on the SK test accuracy.
Ceterum censeo Sinae esse delendam
(Score: 2) by legont on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:20PM (1 child)
If you have it, could you share a source for the age triage Italy used?
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 2, Informative) by Sulla on Wednesday March 11 2020, @11:02PM
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8101135/Intensive-care-units-stop-treating-elderly-coronavirus-outbreak-worsens.html [dailymail.co.uk]
https://www.businessinsider.com/prioritizing-covid-19-patients-based-age-likely-wont-fly-us-2020-3 [businessinsider.com]
In the second link it uses as a source article something that might impart more information, but I'm getting a security warning and this is my work computer. I have seen various reports about this over the past few days but it does not appear to be government policy and doctors are making these decisions based on need and availability. I think (and hope) we come to find this is overblown and inaccurate, but I don't think we will know that for a while yet. If you find contradictory information please share.
Logistically I can understand why it would need to be done, but very distressing.
Ceterum censeo Sinae esse delendam
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 12 2020, @05:23AM
Lemme just leave this here for you, the official italian numbers:
http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/nuovocoronavirus/dettaglioContenutiNuovoCoronavirus.jsp?lingua=italiano&id=5351&area=nuovoCoronavirus&menu=vuoto [salute.gov.it]
(Score: 2) by RS3 on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:06PM
I don't watch all that much news, but I caught some local stories of people who have symptoms, had been in some kind of contact with confirmed COVID-19, were quarantined, but were not tested.
Great clip- thanks!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:13PM (2 children)
Our local cancer research center volunteered some lab space and is able to test for COVID-19 as of last week. Any swabs taken here (Western NY State) will be checked overnight if not sooner. So far, I think there have only been a few dozen people tested locally (travelers, I guess), all negative so far...but probably not all negative for long.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Osamabobama on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:27PM (1 child)
What are the error rates of the test? Or do we have enough data for that, yet?
Appended to the end of comments you post. Max: 120 chars.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 12 2020, @12:48AM
Afaik, our local Western NY test hasn't had enough business yet to produce any kinds of stats or error rate. The Roswell Park research lab includes a specialty in x-ray crystallography to image proteins and, I believe viruses (generating at least one Nobel prize winner), so I give them good odds of getting it right.
This isn't your corner blood testing lab, I think it's about half PhD researchers. Time will tell.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Sulla on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:15PM (4 children)
There were a lot of factors that prevented early testing
1. China's lack of cooperation and active crackdown on information about the virus. Refusal of any outside researchers including the WHO.
2. Inaccurate tests used globally, 30-80% false negatives
3. Laws in the US preventing testing by non-CDC affiliated testing sites (no longer a barrier)
4. Original three-part CDC test failed because one of the three tests caused bad results
5. Lack of US based manufacturing facilities for both test kits and drug components (remdesivir testing slowed down because of this)
6. Red tape preventing quick approval of remedies to fight virus and length of trials for testing vaccines. SARS vaccine in China caused re-infected persons immune systems to overreact and die.
CDC said that the lack of information from China early enough cost us at least two months. CDC test issues was three weeks. Remdesivir is a few weeks to a month out. Had it not been for the law on the CDC testing requirement people could have tested earlier by doing blood tests and looking for antibodies.
I think it is Washington State University that is doing drive-thru tests for students and staff and will expand to first responders and others shortly, Quest Diagnostics and others say they are not far behind with a goal to get these to pharmacies. Would have been nice to have known about this in November because we definitely were not prepared. I would like to see the stats on how accurate the tests are in SK. Insane it took until now for the WHO to say this is a pandemic.
Ceterum censeo Sinae esse delendam
(Score: 5, Insightful) by Aegis on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:51PM (3 children)
Say we had the China data.
At what point would the Trump administration have listened to the warnings of scientists?
Pretty sure it would have been when the stock market crashed and we were already infected....
(Score: 1) by Sulla on Wednesday March 11 2020, @11:46PM (2 children)
Reasonable question.
The travel ban on areas from China was more than any other President would have done, and every other President would have also been hamstrung by the same lack of progress made since SARS in preparing for this kind of event. The only way this could have been different is if Trump closed the borders earlier (he likes doing that) based on having the information earlier. Ron Klain was the tzar for the Ebola Crisis, so far all he has said is we need testing kits faster, but its all the same workers that would have been below him dealing with the same failed test. He isn't wrong about the test kits, but he also isn't a fan of shutting down travel. I bet he would have done a better job than Azar though, but thats a low bar.
If we had the information the stock market would have crashed two months ago. Until Iran and Italy collapsed it looked like China might have actually managed to control it, SK death rate was low and probably over-estimated due to asymptomatic persons, and Singapore results told us it would be seasonal. If Italy and Iran are as bad as they are, how bad was Wuhan?
We did cut off travel with Wuhan and begin screening (ineffectual as it might have been) travelers from China before anyone else, and received complaints from the WHO about taking such an aggressive action when it was not needed. Dr. Fauci said in a press briefing that this was something that he suggested early, and the President followed his suggestion. This action alone would have been enough to insult the Chinese and cause them to cancel any trade talks had the virus ended up being under control as they had claimed. There have been several times that Fauci said he wanted to do something, Trump would have a speech somewhere else saying he had the opposite opinion, and then Trump would go with whatever Fauci wanted. The response got significantly better the more Fauci has been involved in it, hell even Gavin Newsom is currently satisfied with the response.
https://californiaglobe.com/section-2/gov-newsom-praises-president-trump-for-federal-support-on-coronavirus/ [californiaglobe.com]
The determination to focus on the stock market is a concern to me, and I am wondering if that decision was made to give the government time to stock up on facemasks before the public goes crazy and wants them for personal use. The strategic strockpile is already quite low but it appears the CDC was able to get enough to get them through until production can get ramped up domestically. Because Americans are so independent and anti-authoritarian any feeling of weakness from the feds would make them want to bug out, production falls, and we might not be able to service the parts of the economy that we need to keep running. If people got scared and stayed home before protections were put in place, they would lose pay, their jobs, and miss payments. I imagine public sentiment and fear level will ratchet up as the disease spreads, but should be met in time with the laws on employee protection and federal sick leave that we should see out of the Senate soon. EG Walmart temporarily got rid of their absence policy telling people to stay home if they are afraid and they can use their leave, if someone is sick or told to stay home they have two weeks of paid leave, if someone is still sick past that they get 24 weeks (or something like that) of paid leave. Do I agree with how it is being handled? On many points no, but I also don't think we know enough yet about what the strategy is.
If we had the information the stock market would have crashed two months ago. Until Iran and Italy collapsed it looked like China might have actually managed to control it, SK death rate was low and probably over-estimated due to asymptomatic persons, and Singapore results told us it would be seasonal. If Italy and Iran are as bad as they are, how bad was Wuhan?
Ceterum censeo Sinae esse delendam
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 12 2020, @08:26PM (1 child)
Which was fucking idiotic as China had by then already banned travellers to *leave* China.
And, uhhm, Italy was one of the first nations to ban travel from China.. That worked out sooo well.
(Score: 1) by Sulla on Friday March 13 2020, @01:37AM
China's quarantine against Wuhan did nothing to stop the five million people who left the city before the quarantine but after the outbreak. Good shilling for the CCP though.
Ceterum censeo Sinae esse delendam
(Score: 5, Insightful) by TheGratefulNet on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:31PM (6 children)
enough trump bullshit.
motherfucker is literally dangerous to our country.
he's programmed his minions to ignore science and call this a democratic hoax.
he should be removed from office immediately. that won't happen, so please remove him come november.
they'll try lots of dirty tricks between now and then, but remember, he failed you and everyone here, BIG TIME.
shit just got real.
"It is now safe to switch off your computer."
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 12 2020, @02:04AM
It is sad that the bar has fallen to "president will at least listen to experts," like that is a trait worthy of being placed on their C.V.
The prez says there is nothing to worry about, let me know when his promise comes true. Y'know, the "you'll get tired of winning so much" one. I imagine it will be when a handful of people y'all personally know have died, and then you'll finally wonder if being lied to in order to "win" was really a good idea.
Here is hoping shit doesn't get too crazy, I don't wish harm on even the moldy blahbar.
(Score: 2) by Thexalon on Thursday March 12 2020, @02:58AM (2 children)
It will be poetic justice if he's killed by Covid-19 (a very real possibility - he's been exposed, and he's in the demographic that gets killed by it) because he refused to face reality. Unfortunately, he'll take a lot of other people with him.
The only thing that stops a bad guy with a compiler is a good guy with a compiler.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 12 2020, @04:53AM (1 child)
Who actually hangs around the current Troll in Chief in the White House? His lackeys and his kin, so all those he takes with him might actually be good for the country.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 13 2020, @04:44PM
I think he meant all the people that die due to his incompetence, not just those he directly infects.
(Score: 2) by Grishnakh on Thursday March 12 2020, @03:19AM (1 child)
he's programmed his minions to ignore science and call this a democratic hoax.
Sorry, but Trump doesn't deserve credit for this. His voting base has been ignoring science for a long, long time before he was elected.
he should be removed from office immediately.
You think Pence will be any better? I dunno, maybe he will, but he's a total religious loon, so I have my doubts.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by LaminatorX on Thursday March 12 2020, @06:36PM
Pence would be better than Trump in the same sense that losing one arm is better than losing both arms.
Pence has little respect for science and probably thinks this plague is divine punishment for LGBTQ+ rights. OTOH, he is a capable administrator who actually cares about governing well (as he sees it). He didn't handle the HIV flare-up in Indiana very well at first, but I think he did learn from it. If not for Trump's marching orders, I expect he'd approach this as a public health crisis rather than primarily a PR & investor confidence one. The CDC official who Trump overruled re flying sick people back along on the same plane as healthy was Pence's public health guy back in Indiana. Pence probably would've listened to him (in between cooking up position papers that blame high suicide rates among queer teens on "unhealthy" behavior rather than lack of acceptance). Lacking Trump's personal animus against his predecessor, Pence probably wouldn't have dismantled the national pandemic response team just because Obama had created it.
That being said, I'd still rather have two arms.
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Thursday March 12 2020, @12:20PM
Imagine if 95% of the world's production of drugs and medical equipment hadn't been outsourced to China over the last 30 years, and that country didn't retain all of that to cope with its own coronavirus cases.
Imagine if the masks the US paid for weren't on container ships that Beijing recalled for its own use.
Et cetera.
You seem more blissful than the rest of us. Is there something you don't know, that the rest of us do?
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Wednesday March 11 2020, @08:25PM (3 children)
Better get your money out of the bank before somebody puts a lien on it for non-payment of bills.
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 3, Insightful) by DannyB on Wednesday March 11 2020, @08:33PM (2 children)
Remember how 9/11 gave government a reason to go beyond their (then) wildest mass surveillance wet dreams?
Coronavirus might give government the excuse it needs to eliminate all cash. For your safety! Think of the children! Etc.
Get your money out of the bank? Oh, you mean transfer it somewhere?
The lower I set my standards the more accomplishments I have.
(Score: 2) by exaeta on Wednesday March 11 2020, @08:53PM (1 child)
I imagine the government wouldn't do that. Cards are private, cash is a public instrument. I can guarantee private interests do NOT want to lose their monopoly on cards, and thus would have a vested interest in making sure cards stay private, and thus cash remain as the public option.
The Government is a Bird
(Score: 2) by DannyB on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:01PM
The government would LOVE to get rid of anonymous cash.
I don't think the government minds privately operated payment systems, like Visa. As long as big brother can see where and how all the money flows. That's all they want. (for now) To remove the privacy of anonymously exchanged cash. Coronavirus might give them the excuse.
The lower I set my standards the more accomplishments I have.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Beryllium Sphere (r) on Wednesday March 11 2020, @08:50PM (3 children)
This is what Mother Nature came up with, and far from her worst.
We have enemies, and they are cooking up horrors in their biowarfare labs.
What happens when we are hit with something much worse than SARS COV 2, with nothing more than our current ability to respond?
This is a national security issue and people who want strong national defenses should be all over it.
(Score: 4, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:11PM (1 child)
As long as our frightened leader can have his hand sanitizer, big macs and can continue fleecing the country, it's all good. No one cares about anything else -- well, some do, but they've all been fired and replaced by those who only care about that.
Nothing to see here, folks. COVID-19 doesn't exist. There are no cases -- anywhere. In fact, China, South Korea, Italy and the dozens of other places that *claim* there's a problem are all just tools of the DNC trying to make our wonderful, stable genius (who, if he wasn't so busy making us great, could have a vaccine ready in three or four days, but since it doesn't exist, there's no point) look bad so they can import millions of big, strong, Muslim men to impregnate your wives and daughters.
It's all a lie!
(Score: 3, Touché) by Freeman on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:03PM
https://xkcd.com/1161/ [xkcd.com]
Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
(Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday March 12 2020, @04:48PM
And you and a bunch of like-minded friends can help with the more paranoid scenarios by creating your own enclave with extremely restricted interaction with the outside world. For example, a self-contained bunker or ship might work.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:08PM (4 children)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kfxETe8uKbw [youtube.com]
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Snow on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:19PM (3 children)
People are so stupid.
I feel like people should be stockpiling beer and weed instead. If you are stuck at home, might as well have some entertainment. Beer also doubles as food and water.
You can't eat toilet paper, but you can wash your ass in the shower.
(Score: 2, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:22PM (1 child)
COVID-19 was secretly developed by a Chinese toilet paper manufacturer.
(Score: 2) by TheGratefulNet on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:33PM
you mean, "one-hung lo" ?
that guy?
"It is now safe to switch off your computer."
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Thursday March 12 2020, @12:14PM
Ancient Romans used a sponge on a stick. In college we ran out of toilet paper and were too poor to buy more, so my filipino roommate set up a bucket of water and ladle--it worked better, actually, after you got past the initial adjustment. Modern Chinese use newspaper (the China Daily is preferred because of its higher quality newsprint).
So, yes, TP is not the thing people should be stockpiling.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 5, Interesting) by SemperOSS on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:14PM (10 children)
A Danish friend (living in Sweden, incidentally) just told me that nurseries/kindergartens, schools, colleges and universities in Denmark will close from Friday. All non-essential public servants (i.e. everyone apart from people in the health sector, police and carers) are sent home for 14 days with full pay and people are asked to cancel gatherings of more than 100 people.
As the old curse goes: "May you live in interesting times." We are living in interesting times right now, it seems.
I don't need a signature to draw attention to myself.
Maybe I should add a sarcasm warning now and again?
(Score: 2) by Snow on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:20PM (6 children)
... and then what?
What do you do 14 days later?
(Score: 5, Funny) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:26PM (4 children)
14 is fine.
It's 28 days later that I worry about!
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:34PM (3 children)
The real tell will be 9 months later -- mini baby boom is my prediction.
(Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:42PM
No, I think that one was Dawn of the Dead.
(Score: 2) by MostCynical on Thursday March 12 2020, @02:40AM (1 child)
Have you ever been in a house with a small child stuck indoors, even just on a rainy day?
There is a chance co-habiting people without children may..get it on.. but no one with small children will have time, energy, nor desire to make more of the noisy balls of energy and destruction.
"I guess once you start doubting, there's no end to it." -Batou, Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Thursday March 12 2020, @12:16PM
Sure you do. You just learn to be quiet and fast. If they catch you, (repeat after me) you were "wrestling."
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 2) by HiThere on Wednesday March 11 2020, @10:57PM
Well, the idea is that by 14 days after exposure you should be aware of your symptoms and see the doctor. Unfortunately that's merely statistically probable. I think around 60% or 70% of people know within 14 days. So it should slow down the epidemic, but not stop it. Still, slowing it down is a major benefit.
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 1, Disagree) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 12 2020, @01:24AM (2 children)
All non-essential public servants? What other kind is there?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 12 2020, @03:00AM
Um, me? You know, the ones who come to save you, if you have a medical emergency, Firefighters and Fire Dept. Medics? We are making a note that you do NOT require assistance. Good luck.
(Score: 2) by Aegis on Thursday March 12 2020, @03:02PM
The ones who will put you on a respirator when you get coronavirus.
(Score: 2) by Rich on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:18PM
Official numbers as of earlier this evening: 1900 infected. Testing the broader population is not possible. One infection reported among the about 600 Bundestag members, one infection reported among the pro football players (about 40 teams of 20 players for about 1600 players). Can we therefore guess 1 actual infection in about 1000 people? That would mean 80000...
Traffic is a bit reduced, upcoming football games will being played without spectators in the stadium, but no general shutdown yet.
(Score: 3, Informative) by legont on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:42PM (1 child)
Italy 206
Korea 151
Norway 116
Bahrain 115
Iran 107
Qatar 91
Denmark 89
Switzerland 75
China 56
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 2) by inertnet on Wednesday March 11 2020, @09:54PM
Netherlands total average 30 per million, southern part 93 per million. Numbers will rise again tomorrow.