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posted by Fnord666 on Tuesday September 01 2020, @11:55AM   Printer-friendly [Skip to comment(s)]
from the common-cold-/-covid-19? dept.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/08/another-covid-19-reinfection-this-time-second-infection-was-more-severe/

A 25-year-old resident of Reno, Nevada was infected with the pandemic coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, two times, about 48-days apart, with the second infection causing a more severe case of COVID-19 than the first and requiring hospitalization and oxygen support.

That's according to a draft study, led by researchers at the University of Nevada and posted online. The study has not been published by a scientific journal and has not been peer-reviewed. Still, it drew quick attention from researchers, who have been examining data from the first confirmed case of a SARS-CoV-2 reinfection, reported earlier this week.
[...]
Amid the more than 24.5 million cases worldwide, it is completely expected to find some recovered patients who are not completely protected by their immune responses and are thus vulnerable to reinfection.

The big question is: how common is this scenario?


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  • (Score: 3, Insightful) by Rosco P. Coltrane on Tuesday September 01 2020, @12:27PM (111 children)

    by Rosco P. Coltrane (4757) on Tuesday September 01 2020, @12:27PM (#1044879)

    Apparently a few cases out of 24.5 millions. Duh...

    • (Score: 2) by VLM on Tuesday September 01 2020, @12:36PM (75 children)

      by VLM (445) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 01 2020, @12:36PM (#1044880)

      Well, statistically there's multiple scenarios.

      For example, we're assuming the false positive rate of the first infection was below seven nines of accuracy. I don't know any bio lab test that can hit seven nines.

      Another option is this happens much more often than 1 in 1e7 infections. Depends a lot on age because nearly every kid survives and only 2 in 3 elderly survive. Anyway there might be a hundred thousand reinfected kids out there, but since the disease is pretty irrelevant to kids, nobody even knows.

      I will say that with a death rate of 1 in 3, old folks homes and nursing homes would provide obvious evidence if reinfection was a common issue.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @12:58PM (69 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @12:58PM (#1044884)

        They have started to re-examine some of these death classifications tho, turns out that a lot of people that died had various underlying medical conditions of various severity. Fairly common for very old people. So while they did get COVID they can't be entirely sure that is what killed them, it could just have made the previous medical conditions worse and it's that which killed them.

        • (Score: 0, Troll) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday September 01 2020, @01:15PM (60 children)

          If by "a lot" you mean round about 95% with an average of two to three contributing conditions, you would indeed be correct [cdc.gov]. If you're under fifty and don't have any contributing conditions, you have essentially no chance in hell of dying of coronaids.

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          • (Score: 2) by HiThere on Tuesday September 01 2020, @01:57PM (21 children)

            by HiThere (866) on Tuesday September 01 2020, @01:57PM (#1044904) Journal

            You're underestimating the danger, but most people I know overestimate it. And one of the "underlying conditions" that make you more likely to have a bad reaction to COVID is having a blood type other than O. Another is being male.

            Personally, I'm not sure these "underlying conditions" are actually contributory, but suspect that they're markers correlated to a common underlying problem, possibly something about the reaction of sugar in the blood. But that *is* a guess. If so, it's nothing blatantly obvious. It would be interesting to know what percentage of the cases were on a ketosis diet.

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            • (Score: 3, Informative) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:09PM (8 children)

              No, the underlying conditions mentioned are not being male or your blood type. They are other diseases, injuries, and otherwise unhealthy medical conditions. RTFA.

              And, no, I'm not underestimating a damned thing. I'm taking and citing the best numbers available and drawing the only conclusion remotely supported by those numbers.

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              My rights don't end where your fear begins.
              • (Score: 4, Informative) by RandomFactor on Tuesday September 01 2020, @04:01PM (2 children)

                by RandomFactor (3682) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 01 2020, @04:01PM (#1044962) Journal

                Two things can be true at once.
                 
                https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm [cdc.gov]
                (see Table 3)
                 
                6% of Covid deaths are from Covid alone.
                94% of Covid deaths involved at least one other underlying health condition, and on average 2.6 additional conditions or causes of death.
                 
                The following were listed co conditions/causes
                 
                        Influenza and pneumonia
                        Respiratory failure
                        Hypertensive disease
                        Diabetes
                        Vascular and unspecified dementia
                        Cardiac Arrest
                        Heart failure
                        Renal failure
                        Intentional and unintentional injury, poisoning and other adverse events
                        Other medical conditions
                 
                Things start to break and weaken after 50, so age makes sense for being a correlation in disease caused deaths of almost any sort, and age can certainly be correlated positively with all of the above conditions.
                https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html [cdc.gov]
                 
                Comparing just on age, a 50-64yo with covid has 30x the risk of death vs an 18-29yo.
                 
                There is a correlation between blood types and disease risk seen [mit.edu] with O and AB less likely to test positive, and A at increased risk.

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              • (Score: 2) by sjames on Tuesday September 01 2020, @05:12PM (4 children)

                by sjames (2882) on Tuesday September 01 2020, @05:12PM (#1044989) Journal

                The thing is, many of those underlying conditions would never have been the patient's cause of death.

                • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @08:18PM (2 children)

                  by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @08:18PM (#1045069)

                  The thing is, the patient was going to die eventually, anyway. Covid may have hastened that death, or it may not have. Roll 5 d20, any result over 96 says Covid was the killer.

                  • (Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Wednesday September 02 2020, @12:37AM

                    by PartTimeZombie (4827) on Wednesday September 02 2020, @12:37AM (#1045185)

                    Yes, that seems to be the message from certain ...people.

                    "Some of you are going to die, but that's a price I'm prepared to pay".

                  • (Score: 2) by sjames on Wednesday September 02 2020, @09:21AM

                    by sjames (2882) on Wednesday September 02 2020, @09:21AM (#1045308) Journal

                    Everybody will die eventually, but for some reason we still try to avoid it and we still throw people in prison if they speed the process up for someone else.

                    Sounds like you're the kind of generous person that will cheerfully give yourself the shirt right off of someone else's back.

                • (Score: 2) by VLM on Tuesday September 01 2020, @10:23PM

                  by VLM (445) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 01 2020, @10:23PM (#1045129)

                  many of those underlying conditions would never have been the patient's cause of death.

                  I was bored enough to research it, it seems to be the majority of causes of death, according to

                  https://www.cdc.gov/Nchs/data/ahcd/agingtrends/06olderpersons.pdf [cdc.gov]

                  Chinese Flu condition list accounts for 32 + 8 + 6 + 3 + 3 + 2 = 54% of death certificate causes

                  Non-Chinese flu death certificate causes in the top 10 include cancer at 22%, Alzheimers at 3%, accidents around 2% and septicemia around 2%.

                  I had to look up septicemia to figure out what it is; hell it kills about 1 in 50 Americans. Turns out its undifferentiated infection where your body starts rotting before you finish dying. That sucks. I'd be willing to "give" septicemia to either argument for or against although I felt pessimistic so I filed it as against.

            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:12PM (11 children)

              by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:12PM (#1044914)

              Yes, sugar competes for entry into cells with vitamin c. These covid patients all have pretty much zero vitamin c left (literally undetectable in 95% of covid patients) and tons of sugar blocking the little that remains so their bodies degenerate.

              This was already submitted to soylent here: https://soylentnews.org/submit.pl?op=viewsub&subid=43092¬e=&title=Vitamin+C+levels+in+patients+with+SARS-CoV-2-associated+acute+respiratory+distress+syndrome+ [soylentnews.org]

              https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16195374/ [nih.gov]
              https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4024712/ [nih.gov]

              • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:37PM (10 children)

                Wonder if any of the folks they've found this issue in have been doing the ketosis thing. Little to no glucose in your system should mean it'd have a very hard time causing any problems with vitamin C uptake.

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                • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @03:30PM (9 children)

                  by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @03:30PM (#1044945)

                  Looks like they didnt get any patients: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04358835 [clinicaltrials.gov]

                  Here they recommend trying a low carb diet: https://ebm.bmj.com/content/early/2020/07/09/bmjebm-2020-111451 [bmj.com]

                  Other people suggest injecting ketones directly: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7362813/ [nih.gov]

                  But yea I don't see any reports of diet and covid, I would expect a keto diet is beneficial though.

                  • (Score: 1, Offtopic) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday September 01 2020, @03:38PM (8 children)

                    So smoke, do keto, take vitamin C, go play outside, and if you're in possession of huge amounts of melanin take some vitamin D. Sounds a lot less burdensome than wearing a mask.

                    --
                    My rights don't end where your fear begins.
                    • (Score: 2, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @03:46PM (3 children)

                      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @03:46PM (#1044955)

                      I'd only add get a pulse oximeter and if you feel sick and your spO2 starts dropping do not wait for weeks before getting supplemental oxygen. And the best way to do that is probably hyperbaric chambers. Especially since its now being reported that methemoglbin levels are high and total hemoglobin levels are low. HBOT bypasses hemoglobin and forces the oxygen to dissolve directly in the blood.

                      https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0014299920305860 [elsevier.com]
                      https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ajh.25868 [wiley.com]

                      We've known all this since mid-April (some since February). Everyone who has died since then has died from inept medical treatment.

                    • (Score: 3, Insightful) by https on Tuesday September 01 2020, @08:40PM (3 children)

                      by https (5248) on Tuesday September 01 2020, @08:40PM (#1045080) Journal

                      What we have here is further evidence that you have murder in your heart.

                      And before you go "WTF, where do you get that from?!?", ask yourself why you're OK with not performing a simple action which doing, saves lives, and not doing endangers lives.

                      You really, really, really should go and look up the definition of pandemic. Like it or not, you're in the same foxhole as everyone else in the world. You're like the new recruit who has decided to take up juggling hand grenades out of boredom.

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                      • (Score: 0, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @10:41PM

                        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @10:41PM (#1045138)

                        If you hide inside, avoid the doctor until you have been sick for weeks, and then get put on a ventilator right away, then you will die of covid. If you take the measures recommended by the parent you will be fine.

                      • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Wednesday September 02 2020, @03:08PM

                        by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@soylentnews.org> on Wednesday September 02 2020, @03:08PM (#1045406) Homepage Journal

                        Do you know what happens to a pandemic that 99.9+% of people survive when you let everyone get it and become immune long enough to not catch the same strain again? That strain goes the fuck away permanently and the death toll for the first year is the entire death toll for all time. When you drag it out you allow time for acquired immunity to be lost and absolutely guarantee that your death toll will be much, much higher.

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                      • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 02 2020, @05:20PM

                        by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 02 2020, @05:20PM (#1045492)

                        shut the fuck up, you stupid bitch.

          • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:05PM (8 children)

            Disagree all you like, you'll just be proven wrong. Pretty much everyone's numbers are saying exactly that though. Throughout Europe [nature.com], so you can't rightly bitch about US numbers being as intentionally dishonest as they are and sidetrack the discussion, you have a 0.01% or less chance of dying of a diagnosed and reported case of coronaids if you're 50 or younger. Since so incredibly many cases are entirely asymptomatic, the real number's even less than that. Feel free to keep declaring the sky is falling though.

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            • (Score: 0, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @04:15PM

              by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @04:15PM (#1044969)

              There you go- ruining a perfectly good budding flame war with actual facts, logic, and rational conclusions. Sheesh.

              /s

            • (Score: 2) by acid andy on Tuesday September 01 2020, @06:02PM (6 children)

              by acid andy (1683) on Tuesday September 01 2020, @06:02PM (#1044998) Homepage Journal

              you have a 0.01% or less chance of dying

              Even assuming your figure is correct (I don't have time to fact check that right now), that's only based on what little we know of this disease in humans so far. All we know is that most of those people haven't died yet. It's a nasty disease and they could all start dropping like flies 20 years from now. When you get old, lung damage from earlier in life starts to become a much bigger issue.

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              • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Wednesday September 02 2020, @03:10PM (5 children)

                by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@soylentnews.org> on Wednesday September 02 2020, @03:10PM (#1045408) Homepage Journal

                No. You do not get to say dying 20 years later is on coronaids. Humanity sure as fuck isn't going to give you twenty years to find out if it does or not either.

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                • (Score: 3, Funny) by acid andy on Wednesday September 02 2020, @04:23PM (4 children)

                  by acid andy (1683) on Wednesday September 02 2020, @04:23PM (#1045436) Homepage Journal

                  'kay. We'll discuss this further in 2040.

                  --
                  Master of the science of the art of the science of art.
                  • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Thursday September 03 2020, @05:18PM (3 children)

                    by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@soylentnews.org> on Thursday September 03 2020, @05:18PM (#1045932) Homepage Journal

                    Not if the chicken littles of the world are right. We'll all have died of coronaids, been killed by cops, or been defended against in peaceful protests by then.

                    --
                    My rights don't end where your fear begins.
                    • (Score: 2) by acid andy on Thursday September 03 2020, @05:53PM (2 children)

                      by acid andy (1683) on Thursday September 03 2020, @05:53PM (#1045941) Homepage Journal

                      Ah well, my posthumous SoylentNews argumentconversation bot should be ready by then to take over that discussion. It will be powered by downmods (technically, a special peripheral attached to the ethernet adapter will harvest the electric energy only associated with packets containing its comments that were downmodded).

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                      • (Score: 3, Informative) by The Mighty Buzzard on Thursday September 03 2020, @07:24PM (1 child)

                        by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@soylentnews.org> on Thursday September 03 2020, @07:24PM (#1046000) Homepage Journal

                        Two shiny new lines of code in to autocollapse spam modded comments. Enjoy.

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                        • (Score: 2) by acid andy on Thursday September 03 2020, @10:11PM

                          by acid andy (1683) on Thursday September 03 2020, @10:11PM (#1046087) Homepage Journal

                          Nice work, thank you. My comment wasn't really meant to be a subtle dig about the spam bot though. Probably partly inspired by it, but it just supposed to be crazy bullshit.

                          --
                          Master of the science of the art of the science of art.
          • (Score: 5, Informative) by Aegis on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:44PM (4 children)

            by Aegis (6714) on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:44PM (#1044931)

            Hey genius, the first six items in your list are caused by coronavirus.

            • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday September 01 2020, @03:20PM (3 children)

              No, you either need to learn to read or you need to brush up on your medical lingo. Pro-tip: The flu, any chronic condition, and "other diseases of the respiratory system", at the very least, are never caused by coronaids.

              --
              My rights don't end where your fear begins.
              • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @07:24PM (2 children)

                by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @07:24PM (#1045042)

                Ugh you're stupid. Any illness can weaken your immune system and allow other diseases to get a hold. Like an immuno compromised person, the underlying cause was their compromised immune system and not whatever usually non-fatal issue got hold.

                I don't hold out hope for you, anything more than simple direct connections are above your pay grade.

                • (Score: -1, Redundant) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @08:24PM

                  by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @08:24PM (#1045071)

                  Any illness can weaken your immune system and allow other diseases to get a hold.

                  That's what was said at the start of the discussion. If you're already weak, aged, dying from some disease or other condition, you'll be fucked when Covid gets you. Otherwise, not so much.

                • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Wednesday September 02 2020, @03:11PM

                  by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@soylentnews.org> on Wednesday September 02 2020, @03:11PM (#1045409) Homepage Journal

                  No shit, Sherlock. That's why it's called a contributing condition.

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          • (Score: 5, Insightful) by janrinok on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:54PM (16 children)

            by janrinok (52) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:54PM (#1044936) Journal

            you have essentially no chance in hell of dying of coronaids.

            True, but that doesn't mean you will not have lasting damage to the lungs or heart, no matter what age you are. You could need medical treatment for a long time, potentially for the rest of your life. But you won't have died from Covid-19 so that is OK. And with the cost of medical care in the US that also means that many will not be able to afford that treatment.

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            • (Score: 2, Troll) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday September 01 2020, @03:24PM (8 children)

              It doesn't mean that you won't be hit by a meteor either. To date there is massively insufficient evidence to say coronaids is even correlative, much less causative, to any significant, lasting conditions.

              As for medical care affordability? You're better off being broke if you want to be able to afford medical care here. If the fucktards in DC think you should be able to afford treatment or insurance yourself, it's astoundingly more expensive.

              --
              My rights don't end where your fear begins.
              • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @03:56PM (1 child)

                by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @03:56PM (#1044958)

                [...] As for medical care affordability? You're better off being broke if you want to be able to afford medical care here. [...]

                In the USofA, skin color is a deciding factor in healthcare affordability. If you're white and broke, you get to be your own Dr. Don't ask me what it's like to perform surgical procedures on yourself. If you're non-white and broke, you get the best healthcare other peoples' tax dollars can buy. I believe it's called 'reverse-racism'. Now there's a term you don't often hear bandied about in the media.

              • (Score: 5, Informative) by janrinok on Tuesday September 01 2020, @05:45PM (1 child)

                by janrinok (52) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 01 2020, @05:45PM (#1044995) Journal

                Organs that may be affected by COVID-19 [mayoclinic.org] include:

                Heart. Imaging tests taken months after recovery from COVID-19 have shown lasting damage to the heart muscle, even in people who experienced only mild COVID-19 symptoms. This may increase the risk of heart failure or other heart complications in the future. Lungs. The type of pneumonia often associated with COVID-19 can cause long-standing damage to the tiny air sacs (alveoli) in the lungs. The resulting scar tissue can lead to long-term breathing problems. Brain. Even in young people, COVID-19 can cause strokes, seizures and Guillain-Barre syndrome — a condition that causes temporary paralysis. COVID-19 may also increase the risk of developing Parkinson's disease and Alzheimer's disease.

                For some who recover from COVID-19 [hackensackmeridianhealth.org], symptoms like fatigue, shortness of breath, muscle pain, confusion, headaches and even hallucinations are among the growing number of issues survivors face following the illness.

                “Individuals recovering from COVID-19 may struggle with a number of respiratory, cardiac and kidney problems,” warns Laurie Jacobs, M.D., chair of the Department of Internal Medicine at Hackensack University Medical Center. “They also have an increased risk of blood clots, which can potentially lead to a stroke or heart attack.”

                David Strain, co-chair of the BMA’s medical academic staff committee [bmj.com], said that while it was not surprising that medical staff have experienced high rates of infection it was still not acceptable. “The increasing evidence that covid-19 patients can suffer long lasting symptoms, irrespective of the severity of the initial infection, requires detailed study to understand what optimum treatment would be and, preferably, how to prevent it occurring in the first place,” he said.

                “Until this is known, it is imperative that the government and the NHS does more to protect the medical community from infection.”

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                • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Wednesday September 02 2020, @03:18PM

                  by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@soylentnews.org> on Wednesday September 02 2020, @03:18PM (#1045411) Homepage Journal

                  See above, bro. Science requires proof and what they have are suspicions. They don't get to blame coronaids unless they can prove it was coronaids. They currently can not. It is a guess. It may be a correct, incorrect, well-founded, or wild-assed guess but it is undeniably a guess.

                  And, yes, I know the value of what comes out of the mayo system. Better than you, actually, since my stepmother has been one of their RNs for quite some time and I get first hand accounts whether I want them or not.

                  --
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              • (Score: 2) by acid andy on Tuesday September 01 2020, @06:39PM (3 children)

                by acid andy (1683) on Tuesday September 01 2020, @06:39PM (#1045011) Homepage Journal

                To date there is massively insufficient evidence to say [COVID-19] is even correlative, much less causative, to any significant, lasting conditions.

                Insufficient for your personally acceptable level of risk. That still doesn't mean it's extremely improbable.

                It doesn't mean that you won't be hit by a meteor either.

                True but that's an event that, based on current evidence, is at least a few billion times less probable than COVID-19 causing significant lasting conditions.

                --
                Master of the science of the art of the science of art.
                • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Wednesday September 02 2020, @03:18PM (2 children)

                  by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@soylentnews.org> on Wednesday September 02 2020, @03:18PM (#1045413) Homepage Journal

                  Insufficient for science. Well, maybe not climate science.

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                  • (Score: 2) by acid andy on Wednesday September 02 2020, @04:36PM (1 child)

                    by acid andy (1683) on Wednesday September 02 2020, @04:36PM (#1045453) Homepage Journal

                    Nah. It's perfectly scientific to say that a greater percentage of the current world population will eventually have died from COVID-19 than have already died. It's practically a certainty that there will be further deaths and those that have already died cannot (realistically) be resurrected. It just becomes a question of trying to predict how much greater that percentage could be, which is a question of probability and recognizing what we don't yet know about the disease.

                    Of course another side of it is questioning the accuracy of the existing published statistics. I think you've got that side covered, so I'll leave you to it on that.

                    --
                    Master of the science of the art of the science of art.
                    • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Thursday September 03 2020, @05:15PM

                      by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@soylentnews.org> on Thursday September 03 2020, @05:15PM (#1045931) Homepage Journal

                      Yeah, if they were trying to make accurate predictions that would be a legit argument. They're not though. They're ordering numbers to be deliberately falsified and making claims even those numbers can't support. This shit is about politics and power top to bottom, the virus has never been more than an excuse.

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            • (Score: 5, Interesting) by choose another one on Tuesday September 01 2020, @03:44PM (2 children)

              by choose another one (515) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 01 2020, @03:44PM (#1044954)

              Or lasting damage to the brain (sometimes the only symptom is stroke), or pancreas (hello type 1 diabetes, which has recently spiked in kids for no known reason, except a lot of those new cases are covid +ve...).

              Best of all, when you get re-infected you'll be a "had a pre-existing condition" so your death won't matter. Oh and the "pre-existing condition"s usually inlcudes "being overweight", now, admittedly it's a while since I've been to USA, but going by my recollection and that definition, "pre-existing condition" actually included most of the people.

              In summary - nothing to worry about if you are currently completely healthy (no asthma, no hypertension, no diabetes, no cardiovascular problems, not overweight, etc.), you are young, and you don't mind being chronically ill afterwards. Being white and female helps even more. Course you can still spread it to friends or relatives or random people at parties who may have far more chance of dying from your actions...

              Also, in case anyone thinks I'm being theoretical and using the wrong numbers, I'm not - my wife was under fifty, zero pre-existing conditions, far fitter and healthier than me. Five months ago (actually nearly six) she got covid. Last year she was running half-marathons, now she struggles to run two miles and is out of breath just from walking up the stairs, and sense of taste and smell is still fubar, her sp02 is 5% down on the rest of us. That is what "no chance in hell of dying" looks like.

              • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday September 01 2020, @04:04PM (1 child)

                That is what "no chance in hell of dying" looks like.

                You mean the part where she's not dead? Yup, that's what it looks like.

                There is, by the way, some amount of evidence that people in extremely good physical condition are hit much harder by it. Not proof, mind you, but enough to warrant a closer look.

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            • (Score: 2) by RS3 on Tuesday September 01 2020, @04:21PM (3 children)

              by RS3 (6367) on Tuesday September 01 2020, @04:21PM (#1044971)

              I've read of reports of lasting general neurological damage, like loss of sense of smell, taste, some peripheral neuropathy, etc.

              A few days ago I bumped into a friend I haven't communicated with in about six months. Turns out he had COVID-19 for about 6 weeks in March, and it was pretty bad.

              He says that now all of his senses are heightened. I'm wondering if they're returning to normal and he perceives the difference as heightened. Either way, it messes with nerves somehow.

              • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday September 01 2020, @04:31PM (2 children)

                It's certainly been getting on mine.

                --
                My rights don't end where your fear begins.
                • (Score: 4, Touché) by RS3 on Tuesday September 01 2020, @07:29PM (1 child)

                  by RS3 (6367) on Tuesday September 01 2020, @07:29PM (#1045047)

                  Ah, so some covaids might numb you up enough to tolerate the covaids talk? You could always move on to the rioting discussions- I hear they're all the rage. ;-}

                  (sometimes I can't help myself, even though I know 7/8 of the readers here won't get my humor...)

                  • (Score: 3, Insightful) by The Mighty Buzzard on Wednesday September 02 2020, @03:26PM

                    by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@soylentnews.org> on Wednesday September 02 2020, @03:26PM (#1045419) Homepage Journal

                    Nah, riots stopped being fun back before I had nearly this many birthdays. On the extremely remote chance they happen here, I'll shoot anyone who steps foot on my property what looks like they have an intent to do harm stone dead without losing a minute of sleep. Or let folks who look to be minding their manners have a cold drink or a smoke or first aid or whatever. IDGAF what they do off in blue cities though.

                    --
                    My rights don't end where your fear begins.
          • (Score: 5, Informative) by cmdrklarg on Tuesday September 01 2020, @04:58PM (6 children)

            by cmdrklarg (5048) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 01 2020, @04:58PM (#1044986)

            coronaids

            This whole calling COVID-19 something else just needs to stop. It's not clever and it diminishes the rest of your message, which is actually useful.

            --
            There's a little black spot on the sun today
            • (Score: 2) by RS3 on Tuesday September 01 2020, @07:32PM

              by RS3 (6367) on Tuesday September 01 2020, @07:32PM (#1045048)

              I agree, but in life sometimes you have to take the good with the bad.

            • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Wednesday September 02 2020, @03:27PM (4 children)

              by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@soylentnews.org> on Wednesday September 02 2020, @03:27PM (#1045421) Homepage Journal

              No. The reaction to it has been moronic in the extreme and I think I chose a very fitting moniker for it.

              --
              My rights don't end where your fear begins.
              • (Score: 2) by cmdrklarg on Wednesday September 02 2020, @08:28PM (3 children)

                by cmdrklarg (5048) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday September 02 2020, @08:28PM (#1045570)

                No.

                Your ideas about this pandemic are what's extreme. Your opinion has been noted. Giving a pandemic disease a stupid nickname doesn't help your cause.

                187000+ dead and counting.

                --
                There's a little black spot on the sun today
                • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Thursday September 03 2020, @05:11PM (2 children)

                  by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@soylentnews.org> on Thursday September 03 2020, @05:11PM (#1045929) Homepage Journal

                  A) Bullshit. Fake as fuck numbers counting anyone who tests positive and dies as a coronaids death, regardless of the actual cause.
                  B) Whoopdie shit. We let more far people die every year to maintain our overall prosperity. You reckon folks dying from coronaids is somehow worse than dying from any of the communicable diseases we do jack shit about every year? Cause it doesn't even come close to the death count from them.

                  --
                  My rights don't end where your fear begins.
                  • (Score: 2) by cmdrklarg on Thursday September 03 2020, @08:19PM (1 child)

                    by cmdrklarg (5048) Subscriber Badge on Thursday September 03 2020, @08:19PM (#1046041)

                    Show me real evidence that these numbers are fake. It is already the third leading cause of death this year in the US (heart disease and cancer lead it). The evidence I've seen points towards those numbers being undercounted due to lack of testing.

                    The idea that COVID-19 is somehow a vast conspiracy to pull the wool over our eyes is patently ludicrous. It's not credible by any stretch of the imagination. You can believe what you want, and I'm not interested in convincing you otherwise. You're certainly not going to convince me with your assertions without evidence.

                    --
                    There's a little black spot on the sun today
                    • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Thursday September 03 2020, @09:43PM

                      by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@soylentnews.org> on Thursday September 03 2020, @09:43PM (#1046079) Homepage Journal

                      You really should look around for dissent on matters this important. Here [lynnwoodtimes.com] are [arizonadailyindependent.com] a [coloradosun.com] few [mynorthwest.com] for starters. And then there are the CDC's own guidelines that directly state medical facilities should report "probable" as well as verified cases.

                      --
                      My rights don't end where your fear begins.
        • (Score: 2) by datapharmer on Tuesday September 01 2020, @01:18PM (6 children)

          by datapharmer (2702) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 01 2020, @01:18PM (#1044894)

          My grandma had a recent stroke and active cancer when she died. It was still labeled pneumonia. Just sayin' the underlying conditions don't change the ultimate cause of death...

          • (Score: 2) by DannyB on Tuesday September 01 2020, @01:58PM (5 children)

            by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 01 2020, @01:58PM (#1044906) Journal

            I seem to recall that in the 80's, some people, especially celebrities, who died of AIDS had "cancer" on their death certificate.

            --
            While in an airport, never use the word "balm".
            • (Score: 2) by looorg on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:44PM (3 children)

              by looorg (578) on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:44PM (#1044932)

              From what I recall a lot of people that died from AIDS during the 80's had Pneumonia stated as the cause of death. But I guess there could be regional differences or that I am just recalling it wrong.

              • (Score: 2) by DannyB on Tuesday September 01 2020, @03:03PM (2 children)

                by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 01 2020, @03:03PM (#1044940) Journal

                I might be mis-remembering.

                Pneumonia sounds like a more likely cause of death in many instances.

                --
                While in an airport, never use the word "balm".
                • (Score: 2) by RS3 on Tuesday September 01 2020, @04:24PM (1 child)

                  by RS3 (6367) on Tuesday September 01 2020, @04:24PM (#1044973)

                  AFAIK immune system fights cancers and keeps some in check, so it's very possible with immune system compromised a low-lying cancer proliferates.

                  • (Score: 4, Informative) by choose another one on Tuesday September 01 2020, @04:33PM

                    by choose another one (515) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 01 2020, @04:33PM (#1044978)

                    Bingo. There were some cancers that were practically considered to indicate AIDs - "AIDS-defining cancers". Kaposi's sarcoma is one.

                    They exist without AIDs, but are really rare, with AIDs they suddenly become very common.

            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @11:06PM

              by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @11:06PM (#1045145)

              A lot of people who did not die of AIDS ended up with cancer. AIDS makes the person much more susceptible.

              If these deaths "from cancer" followed the AIDS diagnoses by a couple years, the person may have really died of cancer. Of course in the 80s, there were not that many who got diagnosed with AIDS that lived long enough to get cancer.

        • (Score: 2) by Spamalope on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:12PM

          by Spamalope (5233) on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:12PM (#1044915) Homepage

          Those stats don't give the information that would be relevant.
          How many older people have a health situation that'd be documented as a co-morbidity. I bet you'll find the percentage is very high. Anything that'd be in an 'other conditions' admit form... anything at all.

          So the report is helpful in that it shows that if you're under 30, and have none of the risk factors your risk of death is low(ish). It may be but isn't yet known whether the risk of permanent harm is also low. (Common example - Strep for example can cause permanent joint, heart and nerve damage at all ages but the damage isn't often recognized right away, and learning how that works is still ongoing - it's unlikely we'll clearly understand the long term damage profile of covid for years)

          The next point is that CV19's inflammatory process is extremely dangers to anyone without a perfect (aka young person) compliments (inflammatory control) part of the immune system. So diabetes, age related macular degeneration - super high risk...

          I've seen 'they had a heart attack but it was labeled a covid death' or the like. Well, the blood toxicity/clotting effect of covid causes stroke; at least 4 types of cardiovascular failure; organ failure (liver/kidney/lungs - filling them with clots in addition to the virus isn't good); loss of limbs due to the clotting...
          If covid clotting causes cardio vascular failure or a stroke leading to a driver crashing a vehicle, shouldn't the cause of death be recorded as covid not a car crash?

      • (Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @01:17PM (1 child)

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @01:17PM (#1044893)

        With a death rate of 1 in 3, that's about 33% won't have to worry about reinfection.

        • (Score: 2) by HiThere on Tuesday September 01 2020, @01:59PM

          by HiThere (866) on Tuesday September 01 2020, @01:59PM (#1044907) Journal

          I'm rather certain that 1 in 3 is a gross overstatement. It's probably more like 1 in 3 of those admitted to a hospital.

          --
          Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
      • (Score: 3, Touché) by Dr Spin on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:31PM

        by Dr Spin (5239) on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:31PM (#1044923)

        I will say that with a death rate of 1 in 3, old folks

        are going to find it difficult to die twice.

        FTFY

        --
        Warning: Opening your mouth may invalidate your brain!
      • (Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 02 2020, @12:02AM (1 child)

        by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 02 2020, @12:02AM (#1045163)

        Another scenario that nobody seems to consider:

        What if it wasn't reinfection, but the virus went into remission and under the levels used for detection?
        HPV is like that.

        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 02 2020, @12:48AM

          by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 02 2020, @12:48AM (#1045190)

          There are confirmed cases (HK, US & 2 in Europe) of reinfection with different virus isolates.

    • (Score: 0, Flamebait) by leon_the_cat on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:00PM (4 children)

      by leon_the_cat (10052) on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:00PM (#1044908) Journal

      Please conform to the fear porn that covid-19 has become or I will be forced to downvote you. In unrelated news you will live forever as long asd you give up all your rights.

      • (Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:05PM (3 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:05PM (#1044911)

        This much we know. Trump has been pushing this covid hoax day in and out for months trying to force lockdown to destroy the middle class and kill minority children in third world countries through starvation. Absolutely disgusting.

        • (Score: 3, Touché) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:14PM (2 children)

          Dude, your trolling has gone way downhill. Time to come up with another personality. Try for one that's actually entertaining this time.

          --
          My rights don't end where your fear begins.
          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @07:03PM (1 child)

            by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 01 2020, @07:03PM (#1045026)

            Says the self-admitted troll whi is also an idiot. The only trolling bit of that post was "killing minority children" but everything else is accurate. You're just mad that Trump is a traitor and your brain is incapable of comprehending reality.

    • (Score: 2) by epitaxial on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:44PM (29 children)

      by epitaxial (3165) on Tuesday September 01 2020, @02:44PM (#1044929)

      Does that make the information learned about the virus any less valuable? It causes long term damage to critical organs. We won't know the extent for years to come. https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/coronavirus-long-term-effects/art-20490351 [mayoclinic.org]

      • (Score: 3, Insightful) by Azuma Hazuki on Tuesday September 01 2020, @03:00PM (19 children)

        by Azuma Hazuki (5086) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 01 2020, @03:00PM (#1044938) Journal

        That's what really worries me to be honest. It's like how when in warfare you want to wound enemy soldiers rather than kill them; a wounded soldier is much more of a drag on the enemy than a dead one. The knock-on effects of coronavirus infection are the real terror, especially because you can bet your last slim dime they'll be called "pre-existing conditions" in the US.

        --
        I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
        • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday September 01 2020, @03:34PM (8 children)

          Um, pre-existing conditions are irrelevant nowadays. Did you forget?

          --
          My rights don't end where your fear begins.
          • (Score: 3, Touché) by Azuma Hazuki on Tuesday September 01 2020, @06:20PM (7 children)

            by Azuma Hazuki (5086) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 01 2020, @06:20PM (#1045003) Journal

            Um, Trumplethinskin and his merry crew of sociopaths are trying to kill the ACA, did you forget?

            --
            I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
            • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Wednesday September 02 2020, @03:30PM (6 children)

              by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@soylentnews.org> on Wednesday September 02 2020, @03:30PM (#1045423) Homepage Journal

              And? Do you see it actually happening?

              --
              My rights don't end where your fear begins.
              • (Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Wednesday September 02 2020, @08:35PM (5 children)

                by Azuma Hazuki (5086) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday September 02 2020, @08:35PM (#1045575) Journal

                Hell yes I see it happening, if this fat orange sack of Oompa Loompa turds gets "elected" "again."

                --
                I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
                • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Thursday September 03 2020, @04:52PM (4 children)

                  by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@soylentnews.org> on Thursday September 03 2020, @04:52PM (#1045920) Homepage Journal

                  You should at least drop the hysterical bullshit within the confines of your own head, even if you feel the need to use it because your side otherwise can't even resonate enough with the public to beat the absolute worst presidential candidate in history to actually win the office. The only way for that to actually happen is for the Reps to get a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. And retake the House. And convince the executive to go along with it.

                  --
                  My rights don't end where your fear begins.
                  • (Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Thursday September 03 2020, @05:03PM (3 children)

                    by Azuma Hazuki (5086) Subscriber Badge on Thursday September 03 2020, @05:03PM (#1045926) Journal

                    That isn't hysteria you fool. Nothing is sacred, nothing is safe, and nothing can be taken for granted any longer, especially not if this asshole manages to get a second term in office.

                    You should be more concerned about yourself than me; you have an unhealthy lifestyle and no connections to other human beings who could or would care to help you in case everything goes to Hell, and you're stuck out in the ass end of the People's Republic of Incestistan. You are nowhere near as intelligent, canny, self-reliant, or cunning as you like to think you are, and the kind of chaos a second Trump term would cause will kill you.

                    --
                    I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
                    • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Thursday September 03 2020, @05:27PM (2 children)

                      by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@soylentnews.org> on Thursday September 03 2020, @05:27PM (#1045935) Homepage Journal

                      A party without better approval ratings than the Rs have taking the House is pretty unlikely, even given the current approval ratings of the Ds. Getting 67 seats in the Senate is just mathematically impossible without assassinations to free up more than the 12 seats held by Democrats that are up for reelection this year. So, yeah, you're saying the sky is falling when it's clearly not.

                      It's so sweet you worry about me. We should go fishing together sometime.

                      --
                      My rights don't end where your fear begins.
        • (Score: 4, Insightful) by choose another one on Tuesday September 01 2020, @04:27PM (9 children)

          by choose another one (515) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 01 2020, @04:27PM (#1044974)

          Well, to be brutally honest the amount of drag may be a wash - the western countries most affected already had large numbers of people with chronic, expensive, conditions, and there's only so many things you can get before you just die and stop being a drag anyway.

          But yes, this thing is looking more and more like our generation's polio. Polio or covid?:

          70-80% get no symptoms (but can happily spread it)
          1-5% need hospital
          no cure, only treatment of symptoms, ventilation and recovery assistance
          1% left with long term damage

          Few people these days will know polio survivors, I had the privilege of knowing one. Polio didn't kill her, cancer did, but only after (I believe) 50 odd years of being dependent on others (and the state) and on the oxygen bottles she dragged behind her as she shuffled around. Lovely person, I don't think I would have coped with that life half as well as she did.

          It'll be decades before we know the full consequences of covid, if anyone wants some extra fun reading to prove that, look up "encephalitis lethargica" - appeared and spread a lot (sometimes termed an epidemic in it's own right) in the decades after Spanish Flu and then seemed to disappear, we still don't really know if it was actually a post-spanish-flu syndrome.

          • (Score: 2) by choose another one on Tuesday September 01 2020, @09:46PM (8 children)

            by choose another one (515) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 01 2020, @09:46PM (#1045109)

            Well that attempt to use gt / lt chars showed up different in preview to submitted, I swear, weird. Should have been:

            [less than] 1% die
            [greater than] 1% left with long term damage

            Just imagine the proper characters, one day I'll figure out how to get them to appear in a post.

            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 02 2020, @06:46AM

              by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 02 2020, @06:46AM (#1045282)

              It's a trap.

              & lt (< if you take the space out) shows up fine in preview, but SN changes it in the input text field to the actual character when it displays the preview. This turns it into opening a tag. The way to get around it is to copy the entirety of what you typed in the text box, then do preview. If it's ok, empty the text box and then paste in what you copied.

            • (Score: 3, Informative) by The Mighty Buzzard on Wednesday September 02 2020, @03:34PM (6 children)

              by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@soylentnews.org> on Wednesday September 02 2020, @03:34PM (#1045426) Homepage Journal

              Use &lt; and &gt; and it should work fine. That's done intentionally to keep arbitrary tags from being a thing and to keep the balanceTags sub viable.

              --
              My rights don't end where your fear begins.
              • (Score: 2) by deimtee on Wednesday September 02 2020, @09:22PM (3 children)

                by deimtee (3272) on Wednesday September 02 2020, @09:22PM (#1045606) Journal

                Yeah, they work fine but preview changes them in the input box. You click preview, it looks fine, click submit, it's messed up unless you edited all the converted < and > back to the & codes.

                --
                No problem is insoluble, but at Ksp = 2.943×10−25 Mercury Sulphide comes close.
                • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Thursday September 03 2020, @04:44PM (2 children)

                  by The Mighty Buzzard (18) Subscriber Badge <themightybuzzard@soylentnews.org> on Thursday September 03 2020, @04:44PM (#1045916) Homepage Journal

                  Nah, I checked on this very comment and properly written entities do in fact stay entities; exactly as you keyed them in. It's when you don't include the semi-colon that is most definitely part of any HTML entity that things go wonky. <see?>

                  --
                  My rights don't end where your fear begins.
                  • (Score: 2) by deimtee on Saturday September 05 2020, @07:20PM (1 child)

                    by deimtee (3272) on Saturday September 05 2020, @07:20PM (#1046921) Journal

                    Ah. I am not much of an HTML weenie. They worked with just &lt and &gt so I just assumed that was the correct code and that it changing in the comment box was a bug.

                    --
                    No problem is insoluble, but at Ksp = 2.943×10−25 Mercury Sulphide comes close.
              • (Score: 3, Informative) by choose another one on Wednesday September 02 2020, @09:42PM (1 child)

                by choose another one (515) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday September 02 2020, @09:42PM (#1045616)

                Yeah, I knew I had to use the entities and thought I had, and checked it in preview...

                I have played around a bit and figured out what I did:

                - if you forget the semicolon (so use "&lt &gt")
                - and then use preview, it shows up "correct" (as expected if you had remembered the ; i.e. "< >" ) in the _preview_
                - BUT it also turns it into < > in the _comment_
                - so if you forget the semicolon, hit preview, check preview, and then submit, your posted comment is not like the preview

                Not sure if you consider that a bug or just an idiot user who hasn't edited raw html in a long time (and doesn't miss it). Hopefully I've actually got the html entities right this time so it makes sense...

      • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday September 01 2020, @03:33PM

        Older people [redundant but okay] and people with many serious medical conditions are the most likely to experience lingering COVID-19 symptoms.

        They're testing for damage during and after cases of coronaids. If they don't have the at least similar tests run on the same person within a reasonable time span before it was contracted, the test is meaningless and not a single inference can legitimately be drawn. You can not declare that there are nails in someone's driveway by observing that they have a flat tire, you have to rule out everywhere else they've been or find the actual nails in the actual driveway.

        --
        My rights don't end where your fear begins.
      • (Score: 2) by slinches on Tuesday September 01 2020, @04:10PM (7 children)

        by slinches (5049) on Tuesday September 01 2020, @04:10PM (#1044966)

        I'm still looking for data on how prevalent that sort of thing is. Yeah it has been shown some of those who survive will have some lasting impact to their health, but how many show this kind of thing and how does the prevalence relate to the duration and severity of symptoms? The article you linked to doesn't say and none of the others I have seen do either.

        • (Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday September 01 2020, @04:36PM (6 children)

          I am too. Apparently it's pretty much impossible to find though. Which very much does not make sense. You'd think if it were a legitimate worry like the medical talking heads keep saying, they'd at least have some numbers that are as fudged as the death rate to point to.

          --
          My rights don't end where your fear begins.
          • (Score: 2) by slinches on Tuesday September 01 2020, @05:17PM (5 children)

            by slinches (5049) on Tuesday September 01 2020, @05:17PM (#1044991)

            Yeah, the numbers in general seem pretty suspect. I know a lot of people are talking about the death rate and comorbidities, but there are some crazy inconsistencies in the case numbers that no one else even seems to notice. For instance, here in AZ we have over 30,000 more confirmed cases than total positive tests (PCR and serology combined). How is that even possible? The case count should be less than the positive test count since a test is required to confirm a case and some people test positive more than once.

            • (Score: 2, Informative) by khallow on Tuesday September 01 2020, @06:52PM (3 children)

              by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 01 2020, @06:52PM (#1045020) Journal

              since a test is required to confirm a case

              Start with questioning your assumptions. The above one is false. The CDC also counts cases that are considered likely to be covid. I found that out when I was trying to resolve a discrepancy between CDC and state of Wyoming numbers.

              • (Score: 2) by slinches on Wednesday September 02 2020, @01:18AM (2 children)

                by slinches (5049) on Wednesday September 02 2020, @01:18AM (#1045202)

                The CDC and AZDHS both list confirmed and probable cases for Arizona. I was only considering the confirmed cases, which requires a positive test per the CDCs guidelines. Also, there are only a small number of probable cases listed anyway (~1%). So no, I'm not just misinterpreting the numbers.

                • (Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday September 02 2020, @01:20PM (1 child)

                  by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday September 02 2020, @01:20PM (#1045353) Journal

                  which requires a positive test per the CDCs guidelines

                  Then sounds like AZDHS doesn't have similar requirements.

                  • (Score: 2) by slinches on Wednesday September 02 2020, @04:00PM

                    by slinches (5049) on Wednesday September 02 2020, @04:00PM (#1045433)

                    Their numbers are the same. There's a small delay, so they don't match exactly at all times, but it's within a few thousand cases and same percentage of confirmed vs. probable.

                    Go check out the data dashboard at azdhs.gov. Test counts and % positive are there and just hover your mouse over the case count to get the confirmed and probable numbers.

            • (Score: 2) by choose another one on Tuesday September 01 2020, @10:16PM

              by choose another one (515) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 01 2020, @10:16PM (#1045127)

              Lots of places count suspected cases as well, if diagnosed medically. Once the doctors have seen enough of this they know damn well what it looks like (in it's severe forms), for example some of the lung damage seen on CTs is pretty darned unique to covid. False negative rate is pretty high on the PCR tests due to sampling process, some people have tested negative multiple times but still have _something_ that is typical for covid and atypical for everything else.

              Beyond that there are suspect numbers all over the place, partly because cause-of-death is not a black and white thing. If you have a long-term heart condition, have a stroke while driving, crash the car, survive but die of a heart attack while the ambulance waits out side a hospital overflowing with covid patients, did you die of the heart condition, the stroke, the crash or the inadequate hospital... or covid? What if you have a heart condition, OD on drugs, then a thug kneels on your neck, then you have a cardiac arrest?

              Today in the UK the NHS announced 10 new covid deaths in hospitals. Today's final official total, including hospitals, care homes and deaths in the community - 3. Work that one out.

(1) 2