Computer simulations provide startling data on the global impact of nuclear war:
The threat of nuclear warfare is back to the forefront following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But how would modern nuclear weapon detonations impact the world today? A new research study published today (July 7, 2022) provides startling information on the global impact of nuclear war.
[...] In all of the scientists' simulated scenarios, nuclear firestorms would release soot and smoke into the upper atmosphere that would block out the Sun resulting in crop failure around the world. In the first month following nuclear detonation, average global temperatures would plunge by about 13 degrees (7 degrees ), a larger temperature drop than in the last Ice Age.
"It doesn't matter who is bombing whom. It can be India and Pakistan or NATO and Russia. Once the smoke is released into the upper atmosphere, it spreads globally and affects everyone," said Harrison, who has a joint appointment at the LSU Center for Computation & Technology.
Even after the smoke clears, ocean temperatures would drop quickly and would not return to their pre-war state. As the planet gets colder, sea ice expands by more than 6 million square miles and 6 feet deep in some basins blocking major ports including Beijing's Port of Tianjin, Copenhagen, and St. Petersburg. The sea ice would spread into normally ice-free coastal regions blocking shipping across the Northern Hemisphere making it difficult to get food and supplies into some cities such as Shanghai, where ships are not prepared to face sea ice.
The sudden drop in light and ocean temperatures, especially from the Arctic to the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans, would kill the marine algae, which is the foundation of the marine food web, essentially creating a famine in the ocean. This would halt most fishing and aquaculture.
[...] This study shows the global interconnectedness of Earth's systems, especially in the face of perturbations whether they are caused by volcanic eruptions, massive wildfires or war.
"The current war in Ukraine with Russia and how it has affected gas prices, really shows us how fragile our global economy and our supply chains are to what may seem like regional conflicts and perturbations," Harrison said.
Journal Reference:
Cheryl S. Harrison, Tyler Rohr, Alice DuVivier, et al., A New Ocean State After Nuclear War, AGU Adv, 2022. (DOI: 10.1029/2021AV000610)
(Score: 5, Insightful) by c0lo on Tuesday July 12 2022, @08:33AM (7 children)
Any system running at peak optimum in a certain set of circumstances will be suboptimal once the circumstances change.
Case at point JiT economy doesn't cater enough for the redundancy required to deal with risks - reserve stocks are fat to be cut out, keep running nimble... until a flood, or a ship stuck in the Suez canal or war fucks your optimal efficiency.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0
(Score: 3, Interesting) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday July 12 2022, @11:29AM (6 children)
The whole analysis sounds like a threat to Russia: If you nuke, you will freeze over.
Not that the analysis is false, just that mother Russia really isn't well positioned for a significant cooling event.
Україна досі не є частиною Росії Слава Україні🌻 https://news.stanford.edu/2023/02/17/will-russia-ukraine-war-end
(Score: 2, Insightful) by kazzie on Tuesday July 12 2022, @12:57PM (3 children)
If push comes to shove, they can keep warm by burning all that oil and gas they're no longer shipping to Europe.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by ElizabethGreene on Tuesday July 12 2022, @02:46PM (2 children)
It's not in the news, but the dirty secret is that Russia isn't having any trouble offloading their oil. They are above average on shipped crude volume right now. Our embargo is a dud.
Source: Bloomberg Terminal.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @09:15PM
If only we had switched to solar?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 13 2022, @06:18PM
Not "our" embargo. The rat-faced Jews that (currently) own America and hate White Russia's embargo, and of course the White race traitors that work with them.
(Score: 0, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @02:02PM (1 child)
putin himself is no longer rational, and there is a subtle inner conflict between those that want to keep him on as a useful (popular) idiot, and those who want the international community to believe that the country itself is still a rational actor. it has to be subtle, because everyone inside russia is extremely volatile (the only consistent consequence of misinformation campains).
those who matter know that if a nuclear war happens, only the people who go inside long-term shelters will survive (whether or not they live in russia). those who matter, and live in russia, don't really give a shit about anyone who would remain outside the shelters. at the moment we're simply lucky that they prefer living outside of said shelters.
or are you saying that this is a threat to russia nuking the ukraine, but somehow this action not generating a full-blown nuclear apocalypse? well... the resulting cooling would not be that bad. not in the minds of those who control russia.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @09:17PM
There's a guiding principle here: Don't make bomb shelters too comfortable.
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @08:40AM (5 children)
or China and [abs-cbn.com] ... who else?
I have this uneasy feeling we're heading towards a war with some nukes flying.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @09:02AM
It could be fun. If you survive, you get to fall face first into the wide world of mushroom farming. Serve it up with radioactive boar, deer, and stored rice.
Ok, I need to eat now.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @11:06AM (1 child)
nobody sent weapons to the uyghur, and they were peacefully put in prison and castrated.
china is a peaceful country.
hong kong will soon be completely pacified as well.
and taiwan afterwards.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @09:28PM
the chinese just prefer leaders who are strong on law and order. i mean, they would if they could vote.
(Score: 2, Offtopic) by oumuamua on Tuesday July 12 2022, @06:26PM (1 child)
It is unfortunate people have to connect Ukraine to Taiwan with the idea "we have to do something" when keeping the status-quo has worked for so long. If China was planning to invade Taiwan you'd see it months in advance. Ukraine was probably the reason for the hasty exit from Afghanistan a full half year before the invasion. If China had been planning to invade, events Ukraine have no doubt given them second thoughts. If Japan wants to upgrade their military, great, it's their own country. As for expanding NATO to Asia? let's not trigger a Marley Paradox: https://www.genolve.com/design/socialmedia/quotes/Attack-on-Titan-Marley-Paradis-Rumbling [genolve.com]
(Score: 2) by FatPhil on Wednesday July 13 2022, @08:47AM
And Russia didn't keep the status quo in 1992, 2003, 2008, 2014, or 2022 either.
China and Russia have been playing the same games, and have the same motives, for the same reasons, accompanied by the same propaganda. Without evidence, there's no reason not to expect the following moves not to follow the same patterns given how closely the prior moves have mirrored each other.
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @09:17AM (2 children)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @06:28PM (1 child)
How many nukes is just enough without becoming too much?
How much would the radioactive fallout from such an event affect both humanity and other terrestrial life?
Honestly if they can blast off just enough without going to a nuclear war level of 'blowing our load', this might be exactly what we need to stave off ecological collapse. Once temperatures are down that ~10 degrees the coral and other sea life should be able to survive, assuming we can do it without obscuring the sun for more than a few months.
If we can, then we will have bought ourselves time to reassess and put off the oncoming and entirely self-inflicted Judgement of Humanity.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @09:52PM
There is the little problem of fallout, and something like the Chernobyl exclusion zone around every detonation...
(Score: 3, Touché) by Kell on Tuesday July 12 2022, @09:24AM (2 children)
I, for one, welcome the inevitable extinction of humanity. My only sadness is that we'll probably take all the plants and animals and the rest of the planet with us.
Scientists ask questions. Engineers solve problems.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Tuesday July 12 2022, @11:32AM
I suspect humanity will find a way through the coming mass extinction event. Extremely low odds that we will be proud of how well we managed it, or even maintain enough of civilization to record the events for posterity, but... humanity is a truly global species, from deserts to the arctic to tropical rain forests to polynesian sailors - we will probably find a way to survive on bugs and slime too. Even today, we're headed there: https://www.daiz.inc/en/meet-product/ [daiz.inc]
Україна досі не є частиною Росії Слава Україні🌻 https://news.stanford.edu/2023/02/17/will-russia-ukraine-war-end
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @09:31PM
mmhm, the battery chickens, inbred dogs, all manner of deformed caged creatures, will be sadly missed. nature could never have reached these heights alone.
(Score: 0, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @10:09AM (26 children)
"The threat of nuclear warfare is back to the forefront following Russia's invasion of Ukraine."
Well, this places all the blame on Russia. The West, however, interfered in Ukraine's election of a Russia-friendly govt and we got the anti-Russian govt we wanted. Russia wants Ukraine as a buffer state, but the West wants Ukraine to be OUR buffer state. Constant Western encroachment on the former Soviet Union's borders has made Russia antsy.
Now, the West is fueling direct war with Russia in Ukraine, rather than brokering a settlement between Russian and Ukraine. Ukraine cannot win this war anyway--unless America wants to go all in and turn this into a major war, which I don't think we do.
This is realpolitik.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @10:21AM (2 children)
listen: no matter how much money and influence you are being promised in order to repeat the "election interference" lies, your life will not be improved in any way because you do it.
it's stuff like this that makes it obvious anonymous cowards should be banned.
(Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @10:34AM (1 child)
Having a take that differs from yours means I am "paid"?
You cannot be taken seriously if you cannot defend your position with logic. You live in a bubble.
(Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @04:31PM
Yarr Ivan me matey!
(Score: 5, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @11:13AM (4 children)
I think this was a little disillusioned comment there. Who is pushing for war? How about Putin and his ideas he's Peter The Great (or Peter The Terrible). It's quite sad how far Russia propaganda seems to have propagated, especially the right-wing people that know nothing about either Ukraine or Russia.
So, maybe for some background. Ukraine was *always* viewed as a playground of Russia and it's border regions. Unfortunately for Russia, Ukrainian people didn't feel like being let by authoritarians anymore. That was the main reason for the revolts in Ukraine -- they were popular revolts and not "let by CIA", like Russia would want you to believe. Believe it or not, no one in CIA really gives a shit about Ukraine. And no, neither does Hunter Biden or the old Biden. No one! But the revolt happened for same reason why revolt happened in Afghanistan before 1980 invasion by Russia there -- the Russian puppets did things that crossed the line and then they had a revolution. Imagine that. So what happened in Ukraine? Pretty obvious. Ukrainians wanted to be closer to EU with the jobs and economic growth. But Russia wanted it closer to them in their economic pact and views EU as a competitor and not really a partner. So, Ukraine was on two paths -- EU reforms and joining economic partnership with EU, like Turkey has something like that. Also, joining Euroasian Economic Union (EAEU) led by Russia. They had both. But then Putin got his buddy buddy in place elected and what did he do? He axed EU reforms and said that Ukraine would join Russia 100%. So imagine that, more than half the country was quite pissed at that and Kiev is in that half of the country.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan [wikipedia.org]
So, you had a small revolution which was caused by these decisions instigated by Putin himself. Not sure if he's too dumb to realize it, but he caused it. So, what did Putin do? oh, let's annex Crimea and get the revolution in Donbas going as a distraction. KLM flight down and stalemate and few years later and we are here.... Putin thought taking rest of Ukraine would be as easy as Crimea -- you know, kick in the door and the comedian flees the nation while the hapless soldiers stay in their barracks.
So, it's stupid to paint this as some CIA sponsored bullshit unless you are completely clueless to what living in Ukraine has been like. Ukraine was never isolated from EU. On the contrary, guest workers have been in Poland for more than a decade. Officially more than 1.5 million. Unofficially, probably more than twice that. Even more relied on these jobs and benefited from it back in Ukraine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainians_in_Poland#Economic_migration [wikipedia.org]
And they saw that Poland benefited greatly from EU's membership. And they wanted same and better for their own country. So, if you view people working in Poland for 15+ years as some sort of "CIA plot to undermine Russia", I guess I have some Q-Anon story to sell you too. But if you think rationally for a few minutes, maybe you realize that sudden stupid changes that pull the rug of hope from out of under millions of people that have hoped for EU membership, they will probably not like it.
Finally, NATO had even less to do with the current invasion than Hunter did. But that probably triggered some bingo card of the clueless being fed lies.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @12:20PM (1 child)
For the truly dense readers, I made sure to put in this final sentence in my original post:
"This is realpolitik."
Doesn't mean I love Russia. Those are just facts. Ukraine has not expelled Russia from its territory and will not roll back the Russian invasion. Russia will control the eastern part of Ukraine. It may end up that the eastern half will be Russia's buffer state.
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @04:04PM
And how many "buffer states" Russia will be satisfied with ? Estonia ? Finland ? Norway ? Mongolia ? Canada ? Alaska ? Where will it stop ?
Interference with ukrainian elections, real or imagined, is something that should be resolved diplomatically. I'm sorry, but when Putin fired the first shot (and he did fire the first shot, no matter how many times his astroturfers will claim the contrary), he became the bad guy. Period.
And free elections that are being "influenced" by foreign nations are still orders of magnitude better than the democracy theater in Russia, when every single presidential candidate representing a significant risk to Putin conveniently ends up in jail on fabricated charges or poisoned.
And on a final note, nobody hates Russia. People hate Putin, and rightly so, including millions of russians themselves, many of which have already left the country, disgusted by what their psychopathic leader has done, and is still doing, to millions of innocent civilians in Ukraine.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @09:37PM (1 child)
I see, so it was the Jews not the CIA.
(Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @11:02PM
Hai Mr. Nazi! Yes I assumed your gender, why are that vast majority of Nazis incel dudes?
(Score: 3, Interesting) by khallow on Tuesday July 12 2022, @12:28PM (13 children)
Indeed. So why do you think that's wrong? Let's review your argument.
So the West allegedly did a move that keeps looking better by the year and Russia got "antsy", killing tens of thousands of people and counting. When I get antsy, I start walking until the feeling goes away. I don't start wars. There's a standard of human behavior here which Russia fails hard.
What would be the point of such brokering? We couldn't trust Russia to carry out its side of such an agreement without a regime change that removes Putin and the current generation of kleptocrat leaders. That hasn't happened yet.
As to "win this war", sounds like you don't understand such conflicts. Ukraine doesn't need to fully defeat Russia on the battlefield in order to win this war, they just need to break Russia's will to fight. I think that's happening right now. We already saw a taste of it when Russia retreated from its northeast front. It sounds like we're getting yet another bit of that in recent days with multiple Ukrainian hits on Russian ammo depots and other targets. Logistics is Russia's weak spot and they're getting jabbed [t.me] pretty hard right now. Here's a Google translation of that link:
The author apparently is Strelkov, a former commander of the Donbas breakaway region and a Russian ally. We'll see if the HIMARS system responsible for this can continued to operate at that tempo, but if it can, then that's very one-sided even when Russia adapts to it (say by putting depots well outside the range of those missiles and shipping in).
(Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @12:43PM (1 child)
Fighting has been going on in eastern Ukraine for years before 2020. It's not new. 2020 was Russia turning up the dial on the fighting to make it a hot war. You say Ukraine doesn't have to defeat Russia militarily to win, just "break their will." Do you know what the more likely alternative is? Simmering guerrilla war in the east with Russia commanding a lot of the area, if only by proxy. These types of low-level wars can go on for decades.
(Score: 0, Offtopic) by khallow on Tuesday July 12 2022, @12:52PM
Sure, that Ukraine folded like a wet napkin within two weeks of that invasion. Didn't happen thus we're not in a space where your scenario is the most likely anymore.
So what? It still means that Russia would have stopped its present invasion.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by janrinok on Tuesday July 12 2022, @12:51PM (1 child)
I am not arguing with anything you have said, but you ought to be aware that Strelkov is also trying to encourage more Russian involvement and weapons just as Zelenskyy is trying to obtain the same from the West and elsewhere. Russia is content for Ukrainian separatists to bear the brunt of the fighting, it has enough problems with the casualties it is taking without getting more closely involved with expensive street fighting. I do not know for whose consumption the piece you are quoting was written. I doubt he would be saying how bad the casualties were for the West's benefit.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday July 13 2022, @02:21AM
(Score: 1, Offtopic) by kazzie on Tuesday July 12 2022, @01:01PM
Russia started walking too, but they're walking Westward.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by ElizabethGreene on Tuesday July 12 2022, @03:07PM (7 children)
I think it's worth considering here why Russia got antsy.
Imagine sitting on your couch during the cold war. Think about how you, in the US, would feel if Mexico was talking about joining the Soviet Union. We would shit bricks, right? There is no way we'd allow a country with a border stretching more than a thousand miles to cozy up to the Russians. We're so terrified of that we've systematically destabilized every pro-Russian government in the entire South American continent since WW2. We are crazy paranoid about that.
Now, spin the table. Imagine you're sitting on your couch in a Dacha in Russia which has a border stretching more than a thousand miles with Ukraine. President Barack Obama says on live television, in a CNN interview with Fareed Zakiria, that the United States is involved in the coup in that country that deposes a pro-Russian government. The new government, many of which have dual US/Ukrainian citizenship, immediately start talking about joining the EU and NATO. If that happens, NATO can put tanks, planes, and missiles 500 miles from Moscow. That's pretty effing scary, right? Is it possible you might feel a little threatened?
Ukraine is where it is today because some dumbass in the CIA decided to beta test Cold War 2.0.
(Score: 1, Interesting) by khallow on Tuesday July 12 2022, @05:47PM (4 children)
Third, US propaganda is notoriously incompetent so political support probably wouldn't have made it to the point of supporting separatists, much less an open invasion like what Ukraine currently faces.
You should be ashamed of such terrible arguments.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @06:55PM (3 children)
Elizabeth and I have tried to get you to consider things from the point of view of the other country, the one the media has designated as the aggressor. You don't have to like or even agree with the aggressor in order to try to predict what its actions will be based on an understanding of its own interests. But hey, go ahead and fly high off your own moral superiority. The problem is that folks with an attitude like that drag other countries into a wider war. Haven't you had enough of America's regime change for justice in the Middle East over the past decades? That was a colossal waste (no real results, just destabilization of a region) based on similarly flimsy emotional arguments instead of using the brain to act in our country's interest.
(Score: 2) by ElizabethGreene on Tuesday July 12 2022, @07:26PM (1 child)
See also: Legacy of Ashes, Tim Weiner.
Someone, somewhere, needs to realize that "No, this time will not be different." before things get out of hand. Unfortunately, that attack of sanity and conscience seems to only happen after they retire.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 12 2022, @10:33PM
I suggest the Russians start by getting rid of Putin. The CIA didn't create this.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 12 2022, @10:31PM
You failed, but only because I had long ago considered that viewpoint and realized it was complete bullshit. Read something like 1984 and you will understand just how pointless it is. Tyranny will fabricate its own excuses when the real ones aren't good enough - we've always been at war with Eastasia. And that's all that point of view is - just a chain of excuses, some real and some purely imaginary.
When a viewpoint merely exists to make excuses for wickedness rather than trying to do what is right, then it is unworthy of us. Such is the viewpoint alleged to be of Russia.
Given that moral superiority is very real, what are you going to do about it? You going to up your game?
Complete bullshit. The only country dragging anyone into war was Russia. They certainly didn't have any moral superiority. And after they give up on Ukraine, they won't be starting any big wars any time soon.
So because the US does something wrong, that makes it ok for Russia to do something even worse? Is that going to be your argument? Because otherwise, if you acknowledge the US did wrong above and should have been stopped or punished, then you acknowledge that Russia should face the same, perhaps even worse, for it does now. Whataboutisms fail when your side does worse.
Sorry, I don't buy that you have any interest in the US's interests.
Look, Russia is getting fucked by their own bad choices. They thought they could get some cheap real estate on the sly. Well, didn't work out. You want to fix that, I suggest cleaning out the thugs running the country.
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @09:42PM (1 child)
> some dumbass in the CIA decided to beta test Cold War 2.0
So the CIA is all-powerful and yet hapless and clueless at the same time. Got it.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 13 2022, @12:13PM
You do not have to be all-powerful to do a lot of damage. As a matter of fact, those with a lot of power but not total power can do the most damage sometimes: enough to start shit, but not enough to control it.
(Score: 3, Informative) by FatPhil on Wednesday July 13 2022, @08:53AM (2 children)
Dowright lie. There are quotes going back 2 decades of Putin saying he does not accept Ukraine as a legitimate country and wants their territory back under Russian rule.
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 13 2022, @12:10PM (1 child)
Buffer state, administrative province of another state, client state, these are all distinctions without much difference. Why are you getting so worked up?
(Score: 2) by FatPhil on Thursday July 14 2022, @08:44AM
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 13 2022, @06:31PM
"Now, the West is fueling direct war with Russia in Ukraine, rather than brokering a settlement between Russian and Ukraine. "
Not "The West". The Jew who controls most White nations through usury profits and fanatical in-group preference it works tirelessly to ban for Whites in their own nations.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @10:48AM (12 children)
...thermonuclear war?
That aside, there were literally hundreds of atomic bomb tests performed, perhaps thousands by now. Somehow this article doesn't seem accurate, based on that _fact_.
Hundreds of nuclear and fusion bombs have been tested, including the Tsar Bomba, and we haven't plunged into an ice age yet, fortunately or unfortunately...
(Score: 4, Touché) by takyon on Tuesday July 12 2022, @11:23AM (2 children)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_testing [wikipedia.org]
About half a gigaton of atmospheric tests over a long period of time, or about 11 Tsar Bombas.
If all the H-bombs start flying, what's it going to be? 10+ gigatons in 48 hours? Maybe a lot less if missile defense systems work well. Also, the U.S. has disassembled most of its bigger bombs, leaving the 1.2 megaton B83 as the largest in the arsenal (as far as we know).
[SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @11:37AM (1 child)
Because big bombs are less effective than 10 much smaller bombs. And the smaller ones create much bigger "volcano" than the one bigger one.
And this has *nothing* to do with testing. They are talking about SOOT not fallout or something. Soot comes from fires. Testing was done in areas where there were no fires to be started. And burning cities become like volcanoes. Ash no longer goes up 2km, but 40km+ because the fire is so large. This is what this study is about. And stuff at high altitudes doesn't fall down because there is no rain there. And this is what screws us over, even if there is only limited nuclear war far far away.
If you want an example of impact, try one big volcano going off. That would be like a few nukes when it comes to soot. And we already felt impact from that re: crop reductions. You multiply that by 100? Big problems.
Actually, they don't work at all. Russia even had idea to use nukes to kill nukes, but even that would not work reliably. Basically, once they are launched, you have few minutes to live. And if you survive, you probably have a shitty life ahead. By that, I mean much much much worse than your great great great grandparents had.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @10:26PM
> much much much worse than your great great great grandparents
already there. now what?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @11:26AM (6 children)
Unfortunately, the effect would last only a few decades. So at best, it would only mitigate methane emissions, which have about that lifetime. The CO2 lifetime is much longer. and so Global Warming would come back to the world that probably got rolled back to the Stone Age.
So, it's not a cure at all.
But it would definitely kill our civilization. I guess survivors would get to search for scraps of clothes for a decade as there would be no more Amazon to get you new stuff from China. Also, China would probably get nuked in a full nuclear war too just so they don't "win".
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @12:31PM
So you're saying the "man-made global warming" we've seen in the last few decades is just a result of stopping nuclear testing? I knew we should never have listened to those anti-nuke hippies.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 12 2022, @12:32PM (4 children)
Keep in mind that climate researchers have been underestimating CO2 sinks for some time and global warming wouldn't be a significant problem - rather a minor benefit - in a post-nuclear winter world. For example, it might help delay onset of the next glacial period.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @10:28PM (3 children)
Fortunately a semi-anonymous internet poster with a solid political bias knows best. Humanity is safe.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday July 13 2022, @02:11AM (2 children)
This comes from predictions of warming versus amount of CO2 equivalent emitted. It usually gets dodged [nasa.gov] in the literature:
In other words, when we look at predicted warming from a set level of CO2 equivalent emissions, the models run too hot. They hide that by look at predicted warming from a set level of CO2 equivalent concentration in the atmosphere. That hides that the models are greatly understating CO2 sinks.
(Score: 2) by FatPhil on Wednesday July 13 2022, @08:58AM (1 child)
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday July 13 2022, @11:47AM
He's not the only one.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by HiThere on Tuesday July 12 2022, @01:30PM (1 child)
It's not the bombs themselves that are the problem, it's the fires they start in combination with the column of extremely hot air they create. This is what lofts the soot into the stratosphere. Usually the soot just hangs around locally, and the tests were done in places where there wasn't much to burn.
The original term for this scenario was "nuclear winter", but that turned out to be an overstatement. It's more "nuclear autumn". But that's still enough to kill the crops, etc. If you're *really* optimistic then you can think of this as "seven lean years". But that's being considerably overoptimistic.
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @10:32PM
If you're *really* *really* optimistic, you think of it as End Times when Jesus returns on a chariot of light.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @11:26AM (3 children)
The only winning move is not to play.
How about a nice game of chess?
(Score: 2) by HiThere on Tuesday July 12 2022, @01:32PM
The problem here is that it doesn't matter WHO plays. It still affects everyone.
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 1, Offtopic) by DannyB on Tuesday July 12 2022, @05:49PM (1 child)
Is there any point in playing chess against a computer these daze?
How often should I have my memory checked? I used to know but...
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 13 2022, @07:42AM
yes. you just need to get an older version of the code.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @11:57AM (7 children)
unless
(Score: 0, Flamebait) by khallow on Tuesday July 12 2022, @12:46PM (6 children)
I see the number of Chicken Littles is declining. Again, are you going to apologize for dirtying our internets with your hysteria when your "MAD event" doesn't happen?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @07:01PM (5 children)
Did anyone say it WOULD happen, or are people trying to generate awareness for the precarious situation modern civilization is in right now? Poor khallow, so invested in the status quo he'll blunder right into the furnace without noticing the safety rails were removed.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 12 2022, @10:39PM (4 children)
Well, yes. That's the title after all.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @10:58PM (1 child)
It's more like the probability of a nuclear MAD event in any given month as it toboggans towards 1.0, given some approximate metaphor [wikipedia.org]. They just disagree about how many minutes and seconds to midnight.
ICFI/SEP/IWA-RFC: NYC Emergency Management Department issues Public Service Announcement for nuclear attack [wsws.org]
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday July 13 2022, @01:34AM
There we go. Again, will you apologize for wasting our time after your deadline comes and goes?
(Score: 2) by FatPhil on Wednesday July 13 2022, @09:11AM (1 child)
A consequence has been conditionally predicated upon a cause in the title, that's agreed, but no-one's said that that cause would happen. Therefore no-one has said the consequence would (with no conditionality stated, thus none intended, and therefore definitely) happen.
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday July 13 2022, @11:46AM
In an AC's reply, I see tobogganing towards a probability of 1. Plus, this is not the only such post predicting near future doom.
(Score: 2) by crafoo on Tuesday July 12 2022, @12:01PM (14 children)
I tend to think biological weapons will be the weapons of mass destruction that actually get used, as they are far easier to inflict on your enemy covertly. Delaying their response. Our allies are pouring amazing amounts of money into it, mostly overseas. Their are filthy, filthy rumors of biologic weapons labs funded by the USA, but of course we wouldn't be doing that.
The people running the world are insane. Many of them are weird occultists with truly terrifying worldviews.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 12 2022, @12:34PM
But of course, they're human.
Who is "we"? And where's that evidence?
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @12:36PM (11 children)
>> Their are filthy, filthy rumors of biologic weapons labs funded by the USA
I hear they funded one in Wuhan, near a market.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by khallow on Tuesday July 12 2022, @12:44PM (10 children)
(Score: 2) by FatPhil on Wednesday July 13 2022, @09:13AM (9 children)
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: 0, Redundant) by khallow on Wednesday July 13 2022, @11:52AM (8 children)
(Score: 2) by FatPhil on Wednesday July 13 2022, @09:26PM (7 children)
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday July 13 2022, @10:10PM (6 children)
But sure, I grant that the earliest poster, crafoo was talking about those juicy Ukraine rumors.
(Score: 2) by FatPhil on Thursday July 14 2022, @08:36AM (5 children)
>>>> I think he's making reference to the Russian state propaganda about the biolabs in the Ukraine.
?
Why did you deliberately chose to interpret it the less supportable, and less sense-making, alternative way? Pondlife-like memory - forgotten about the great-grandparent post completely? Or simply disingenuous and chosing a misinterpretation just to troll?
Just because someone else has made a mistake before you doesn't need you need to sign yourself up to his newsletter, and then push his misinformation as your own.
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday July 14 2022, @11:48AM (4 children)
Because I was replying to the poster who mentioned Wuhan and well, felt like it. But having said that, I don't take the original rumors seriously. They were just a bit of throw-away propaganda in the first place - well beyond their shelf life at this point.
(Score: 2) by FatPhil on Thursday July 14 2022, @02:36PM (3 children)
When you replied to me with the assumption I said the less likely thing, you were not "replying to the poster who mentioned Wuhan".
Why did you make the stupid choice *when replying to me*?
It's beginning to look more like stupidity rather than disingenuity, but, really, that's still not a great look for you.
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: 1) by khallow on Friday July 15 2022, @02:31AM (2 children)
You are not a bamboozler here. You replied to my post which in turn replied to the Wuhan thing. That was the context of the thread at that point. Look this isn't interesting and I think the original post about Ukrainian biolabs wasn't serious in the first place.
(Score: 2) by FatPhil on Friday July 15 2022, @06:32AM (1 child)
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday July 16 2022, @12:02AM
You aren't the only one in this thread. Your repetition seems a bit off on those other posters.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Azuma Hazuki on Tuesday July 12 2022, @05:38PM
You nailed it with the "weird occultists with terrifying worldviews" bit. This is mostly down to Abrahamic religions pissing at each other, many of whom want the literal end of the world. And that's just on the US side!
I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 12 2022, @12:39PM (2 children)
(Score: 1, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @01:08PM (1 child)
https://soylentnews.org/comments.pl?noupdate=1&sid=50182&page=1&cid=1258033#commentwrap [soylentnews.org]
It is relevant because there is a strong dependence on particulate size in both the residence time in the atmosphere, how high it can get into the atmosphere, and the radiometrics (absorptive vs. reflective). I'm sure there are also other effects going on, such as the difference between a thin mostly transmissive layer of soot vs. a blanket of soot keeping sunlight from hitting the ground. There are huge differences that this isn't an apples-to-oranges kind of comparison.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 12 2022, @05:50PM
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @12:47PM (7 children)
Why is simulations always treated as hard facts today?
Then again we tend to think simulated intelligence is artificial intelligence too...
(Score: 3, Touché) by HiThere on Tuesday July 12 2022, @01:36PM (1 child)
They're treated as "hard facts" because they're often good enough to warrant that treatment. I'm not sure this one is, but other simulations of about the same scenario have come up with about the same result. Possibly they're all making the same mistake, but I wouldn't want to bet that way.
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 12 2022, @05:55PM
This. I think there's a lot of correlated mistakes in a field like this. It's an attractive narrative that promises shared destiny (a lot of people have trouble with vastly horrible things that others can benefit from). I wouldn't bet on it because of all the other guaranteed horrible things that would happen.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @07:03PM (3 children)
Simulations tell you to a high degree of mathematical precision the consequences of your model assumptions.
Nothing more. They don't test your assumptions or conclusions in any way against reality.
GIGO.
(Score: 1, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 12 2022, @09:18PM (2 children)
in this case, you don't want to be able to test the real prediction errors, because who wants to use a sliderule and bits of burnt wood in a dark cave..
(Score: 0, Redundant) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 13 2022, @04:21AM (1 child)
Some people confuse running a simulation with doing a real experiment. The simulation is incapable of proving your model assumptions incorrect. A real experiment can.
(Score: 2) by FatPhil on Wednesday July 13 2022, @09:20AM
Simulating the nuclear reactions in the sun give us 3 times as many neutrinos as we actually measure. Therefore our assumptions (in this case, about neutrinos, not understanding their oscillations) were wrong. That's not just valid science, that's fruitful science.
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: 3, Touché) by NotSanguine on Tuesday July 12 2022, @10:27PM
Abasolutely. Since "science" doesn't provide "answers" (only theories), it's all really just suggestions and we can't know anything unless we actually experiement.
The obvious resolution is to perform the experiment and lob a few hundred nukes around the globe and gather the evidence as to whether the simulation is correct or not.
Let's get to it then! If the simulation is correct, we don't need to worry, as the vast majority of us will be dead within a few years.
If it isn't, you get to win internet points. Seems like a fair tradeoff to me.
Bombing for answers, FTW!
No, no, you're not thinking; you're just being logical. --Niels Bohr