from the quantum-computers-will-run-our-fusion-reactors dept.
Over the past five years, there has been undeniable hype around quantum computing—hype around approaches, timelines, applications, and more. As far back as 2017, vendors were claiming the commercialization of the technology was just a couple of years away—like the announcement of a 5,000-qubit system by 2020 (which didn't happen). There was even what I'd call antihype, with some questioning if quantum computers would materialize at all (I hope they end up being wrong).
More recently, companies have shifted their timelines from a few years to a decade, but they continue to release road maps showing commercially viable systems as early as 2029. And these hype-fueled expectations are becoming institutionalized: The Department of Homeland Security even released a road map to protect against the threats of quantum computing, in an effort to help institutions transition to new security systems. This creates an "adopt or you'll fall behind" mentality for both quantum-computing applications and postquantum cryptography security.
[...] In my opinion, quantum practicality is likely still 10 to 15 years away. However, progress toward that goal is not just steady; it's accelerating. That's the same thing we saw with Moore's Law and semiconductor evolution: The more we discover, the faster we go. Semiconductor technology has taken decades to progress to its current state, accelerating at each turn. We expect similar advancement with quantum computing.
[...] Let's remember that it took Google 53 qubits to create an application that could accomplish a supercomputer function. If we want to explore new applications that go beyond today's supercomputers, we'll need to see system sizes that are orders of magnitude larger.
Quantum computing has come a long way in the past five years, but we still have a long way to go, and investors will need to fund it for the long term. Significant developments are happening in the lab, and they show immense promise for what could be possible in the future. For now, it's important that we don't get caught up in the hype but focus on real outcomes.
The author points out that some of the larger challenges that need to be addressed are: better devices and high-quality qubits, simple qbit interconnect technologies that do away with the existing multi-wire configuration, fast qubit control and feedback loops, and error correction that an run on a large group of qbits.