The gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 started leaking south and east of the island Bornholm on the 26th. Both pipelines go from Russia to Germany. A pressure drop from 105 to 7 bar was detected in the night and now the the sea is bobbling. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/pressure-defunct-nord-stream-2-pipeline-plunged-overnight-operator-2022-09-26/ The Danish military has released video and photos (Danish): https://www.forsvaret.dk/da/nyheder/2022/gaslakage-i-ostersoen/
A seismologist detected what appears to be explosions at 02:03 and 19:04. Poland's prime minister claims it's sabotage. The Danish Prime minister is more cautions. The German newspaper Die Welt speculates that it might have been Russia themselves that did it. Kreml is also cautious but doesn't rule out sabotage.
I don't know that much about gas pipelines. What do you soylentils think about any repairs, and if underwater pipelines are worth it?
(Score: 5, Insightful) by ElizabethGreene on Wednesday September 28 2022, @01:04AM
We are beta testing World War 3 and a new patch just dropped.
I hope they don't drop the nuketown DLC. I understand the Russians just started mandatory multiplayer.
(Score: 4, Funny) by EJ on Wednesday September 28 2022, @01:32AM (1 child)
For awhile now, I didn't really care if WW3 happened. I figured it might be time for a major culling of humankind.
Then, I saw this Twitter status update, and now I don't want WW3.
https://twitter.com/VancityReynolds/status/1574865217141481477 [twitter.com]
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Freeman on Wednesday September 28 2022, @01:36PM
So, your whole reason for no WW3 is that it would interrupt the production of another comic super hero movie? Hopefully, that's not the only thing keeping others from caring whether WW3 happens or not as well.
Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
(Score: 5, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 28 2022, @01:35AM (32 children)
Latest from BBC shows seismograph readings from nearby earthquake monitoring indicating explosions at the pipeline locations. Looked at an online chart of that area and it seems likely the pipelines are at 30-50 meters depth (100-160 ft). This is, I believe shallow enough that the charges could have been set by well-trained divers (navy demolition style) off a small boat.
Or, if we assume the Russians did it as false flag (Russians were very quick to claim "terrorists"--seems like a big tell to me) they could have done it from their terminals (in NW Russia). Pretty simple, insert a pipeline inspection robot...carrying a bomb instead of the usual load of lights and cameras. The bot drives along until it gets the signal (or timer) to detonate.
Once the pipeline stops bubbling out high pressure methane, I suspect Denmark or someone will dive to inspect. My bets are that the blast damage is "outward", indicating an explosion inside the pipe.
Now, who has the motivation to sever these pipelines?
Russia as false flag and excuse to extend the current Ukraine conflict further
Greenpeace who who want to make sure that Germany quits using methane, due to CO2 release
Scandinavians that are jealous that Germany and continental Europe gets that cheap gas
China that wants cheap Russian gas for a long time, not just now when the Euros have stopped buying
?????
(Score: 2) by EJ on Wednesday September 28 2022, @01:49AM
Amber Heard's character from Aquaman.
(Score: 5, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 28 2022, @01:49AM (13 children)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2022/09/27/us-blew-up-russian-gas-pipelines-nord-stream-1--2-says-former-polish-defense-minister/ [forbes.com]
(Score: 3, Interesting) by coolgopher on Wednesday September 28 2022, @02:09AM (5 children)
Interesting. Normally I'd call that out as Russian propaganda BS, but even if it is it does have a certain air of possibility to it. Just a month or two ago there were joint training exercises between the Swedish army and US marines. So that would cover both opportunity and capability I'd say, and Biden's comments could be considered motive.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday September 28 2022, @04:02PM (3 children)
I feel like if you need to introduce Sweden into your theory you have failed Occam's Razor!
(Score: 3, Interesting) by looorg on Wednesday September 28 2022, @04:44PM (1 child)
Sweden isn't really a gas country when it comes to energy. So why would they have done it? To fuck with their neighbors to the south? To poke Ivan? Show all the other countries what cool shit they can do once in NATO? They all sound like bad ideas.
If they had blown a working gas pipe prices would increase in gas countries and it would spill over making energy prices rise in Sweden to since that is all connected now on a common energy market. That wouldn't be a popular thing to do considering more or less all of Europe are currently very upset about the massive price hikes for energy.
Sweden does have more coast in the Baltic sea then anyone else so in that regard it's more or less a Mare Nostrum as far as they are concerned. I just can't really come up with a good reason for them to blow up a couple of pipelines under the sea, that is not to say there isn't one. So there will be investigations. In some regard they are already there looking with the coastguard, drones and there is a fairly large naval base just north - north east from the place the pipes blew. That base has both submarines and train military divers. So there is equipment and resources in the area for investigations on more or less all levels.
(Score: 2) by coolgopher on Thursday September 29 2022, @02:38AM
Despite not being a gas-dependent country, Sweden's southern energy grid is very much tied into the northern European grid, which is heavily gas reliant. This has caused energy prices to skyrocket in Sweden as well, much to their annoyance. If they could do anything to secure gas deliveries to Germany et al that would be in their best interest.
(Score: 5, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 28 2022, @11:15PM
Oh, Occam's Razor you want?
I think we have our answer.. if we're going to follow your Occam's Razor
(Score: 2) by Reziac on Thursday September 29 2022, @02:38AM
Also, reports (unconfirmed far as I know) of a couple of US Navy ships paralleling the pipelines a few days before.
And there is no Alkibiades to come back and save us from ourselves.
(Score: 4, Interesting) by gnuman on Wednesday September 28 2022, @11:45AM (5 children)
I would rather call this "idiot with a loose microphone" than actual reality.
I find the hypothesis of internal explosion more plausible and interesting. There is really no benefit for US to blow up these pipelines, only negatives. On the other hand, Russia "benefits", maybe minimally, by trying to create chaos... in rational world that doesn't really make sense either. But it's only Russia that has been doing idiotic things lately so they would win this scenario without further evidence.
If anything, this increases the likelihood of Russia using nukes in Ukraine -- another batshit crazy things to do. Let's just hope US is not picking Ukraine to be the hill, on which we end our civilization.
(Score: 2) by HiThere on Wednesday September 28 2022, @01:18PM (2 children)
I would disagree with "it's only Russia that has been doing idiotic things lately", but they've certainly gotten lots of news coverage, and deciding whether an action is idiotic or not depends on how you assess their motives, and what they saw their choices as being.
OTOH, two explosions at once definitely *sounds* like sabotage There may be other explanations, but things like earthquakes would have left other widely visible traces.
OK, another wacky hypothesis: Germany did it to avoid having to reverse a public policy decision to cut Russian imports.
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday September 28 2022, @04:05PM (1 child)
Three explosions now, reportedly....
I would almost buy the Germany theory over the Russian one. Those pipes seem so important to any sort of Russian economic recovery that it would be dumb for Russia to blow them up. But, alas, it was really fucking dumb of Russia to invade in the first place so who knows!
It's fun to be in conspiracy mode, I know, but we also shouldn't rule out a cascading failure of some type. They do happen and there is a war going on over there that could be a bit distracting to the operators.
(Score: 2) by HiThere on Wednesday September 28 2022, @08:36PM
I wish I could buy "cascading failure", but before I do I'm going to need to here some details about just what the links were. Currently it seems an excessively complicated answer. (Of course, such things do happen, but Occam's Razor usually points towards the best answer.)
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 1) by Coligny on Thursday September 29 2022, @03:26AM
It’s this exact opposite… are you a monkey with a typewriter ?
Russia don’t meed false flag, they do whatever they want with a “fark you” attitude
The US meanwhile has a lot to gain strategically and economically.
If I wanted to be moderated by mor0nic groupthinking retards I would still be on Digg and Reddshit.
(Score: 2) by legont on Thursday September 29 2022, @08:13PM
The biggest US benefit was to make sure no matter what Germany would not turn it on. Regardless of what happens in the winter, be it German government fall like in Italy and Great Britain. Regardless of who will be in power in Germany.
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 29 2022, @03:09AM
https://www.naturalnews.com/2022-09-28-nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-likely-orchestrated-by-ruthless-biden-regime.html [naturalnews.com]
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 28 2022, @04:18AM (2 children)
"You forgot Poland"
Economically, they benefit the most.
(Score: 2) by Reziac on Thursday September 29 2022, @02:41AM (1 child)
And then there's this:
https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915 [twitter.com]
[Reportedly this guy is married to someone from Victoria Nuland's inner circle, make of that what you will.]
And there is no Alkibiades to come back and save us from ourselves.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 29 2022, @05:17AM
Yeah, after hearing the Biden quote, it has become very obvious who did it, but blaming Russia is still easier and more popular, as most of the comments here show
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday September 28 2022, @04:26AM
Quite a few parties, including some non-state actors. For a glaring example, Russia can't hold these pipelines hostage this winter nor use them to gain hard currency, and there would be a reduction in the EU's natural gas supply. So directly, this is a loss for Russia and a gain for others, including Ukraine (and any factions that might act independently). But Russia or some other party could be false flagging this sabotage in order to harm the reputation of another party. For a hypothetical example, Russia funding a bunch of gullible Ukrainian neo-nazis to bomb their own pipeline and then providing enough damning evidence to convict them easily.
At this point, law enforcement is just gathering information. It'll be interesting to see if they can catch anyone, and if so, who and how competent the culprits happen to be. Another bit of information would be how thorough the damage is. Replacing a few meter small section is a lot easier than replacing a kilometer of pipe, for example.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by janrinok on Wednesday September 28 2022, @08:47AM (8 children)
(Score: 3, Interesting) by HiThere on Wednesday September 28 2022, @01:21PM (1 child)
The problem with that hypothesis is that two pipelines went at the same time in (IIUC) different locations. So one needs a hypothesis that explains that. If there'd been a fault slip at the same time that put stress on both pipelines that could do it, but that's not what (we are told) the seismographs reported.
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 28 2022, @01:43PM
They didn't go at the same time, it was a few hours apart.
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Wednesday September 28 2022, @01:24PM
Count the points which show a gas leak, not that hard to find a map among the news today. You'll find that's one leak in excess for a "weld gave up" explanation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 3, Interesting) by quietus on Wednesday September 28 2022, @07:27PM (4 children)
That might be plausible.
Both Nordstream-1 and 2 have been operating at an unusual regime for a couple of months now. Nordstream-1 was empty since the maintenance hubbub.
Given that it seems that normally Siemens experts are called in for problems with the compressors, and that they first withdrew from Russia, and later on stated that the "problems" with Nordstream-1 were political rather than technical, maybe somebody decided to do a DIY on refilling Nordstream-1 with gas again.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by quietus on Thursday September 29 2022, @08:54AM (3 children)
It turns out that there was a main dump near Bornholm. [interreg-baltic.eu]
(Score: 2) by quietus on Thursday September 29 2022, @10:42AM (2 children)
Mustard gas can easily penetrate concrete. Further, from a 1994 report [helcom.fi] on the ammunitions dumped:
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 29 2022, @12:59PM (1 child)
Not going to believe that those chemicals just happened to break through on the exact same day that the Baltic Pipe [wikipedia.org] opened.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Sunday October 02 2022, @02:38PM
Not going to believe the inauguration of the Baltic Pipe just happened during the "independence referenda" in the occupied regions in Ukraine.
The Baltic Pipe crosses [ramboll.com] the Nordstream pipelines quite a bit (about 150km) away from the explosions [reuters.com]. Also, each Nordstream pipeline is about 1,200km long, yet the explosions happened in the small region where there is a risk of loose ammunitions on the seabed. What's the probability there?
Then there's the delay of 17 hours between the two explosions. (One wonders why the Nordstream management didn't immediately close down that section of the pipeline after the explosions.)
Addendum: whaddya know -- Asia Times reports [asiatimes.com] today that military exercises were held in the very same region, both by the US and the Russians. The Russian actions are especially interesting: a search-and-destroy action for a hostile submarine, using antisubmarine weapons.
(Score: 4, Informative) by isj on Wednesday September 28 2022, @01:23PM
The pipelines are at a depth of 60 meters. They are steel of an average thickness of 38mm - the thickness depends on the internal pressure which varies. They are encased in concrete. They are normally not buried. Security-wise that seems adequate - not that many entities have to capability of performing sabotage at 60 meters depth.
One military expert claims that only states have the capability of performing sabotage at that depth, but I'm not convinced. There are plenty of oil companies with divers that are familiar with working at that depth (cue Big Oil conspiracies...). The really tricky part is doing it unseen.
(Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday September 28 2022, @03:58PM (1 child)
There were some rumblings about allowing some Russian gas into Germany via the Nord Stream pipes because of the shortages. They even paid off some bill they were witholding that was widely seen as a nod in the direction of reopening the pipeline.
The only realistic sounding motive for this, if it's an attack, would be to stop that from happening. Not sure who exactly would benefit from that, though. The US shouldn't really care, we're at capacity sending them everything we can fit on a boat.
It may benefit Ukraine to keep Russia isolated so maybe them or even sympathizers in Russia. There were some rather conveniently timed explosions in Russia after the invasion.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Wednesday September 28 2022, @07:35PM
I think you're confusing Germany with Hungary or the Czech Republic here with regards to that bill. Those rumblings you refer to came from the extreme left of Die Linke (and possibly the AfD whose headquarters have today been raided in the context of an 'expense scandal' i.e. who really does your funding [from Switzerland]).
(Score: 1) by anubi on Friday September 30 2022, @12:38AM
Letssee...TFS 7 bar pressure, that's about 101 PSI
Which is about 235 feet of water.*
*IF measurement is static, bottom end completely open, pressure drop for flow turbulence ignored.
Varying density of water at various temperature and salinity ignored.
This is how much pressure you gotta put in at the surface to displace the water and bubble forth from the bottom.
"Prove all things; hold fast that which is good." [KJV: I Thessalonians 5:21]
(Score: 5, Insightful) by coolgopher on Wednesday September 28 2022, @02:01AM (16 children)
Occam's Razor says it's sabotage. You don't get three separate explosions next to gas pipelines accidentally. As reported by The Guardian [theguardian.com] those pipes have a wall thickness of 4.1cm steel, encased in a further 11cm of steel-reinforced concrete. They're not known for leaking or breaking.
I'm guessing this is another "brilliant" move by Russia in an attempt to shake Europe into stopping support to Ukraine. Unless there's a third party either wanting to sell gas to Europe, or buy Russian gas. If the latter, the world is going to be a whole lot less pleasant, since we can all guess who might be behind such an act. Hopefully I'm wrong and they're smarter than that.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by c0lo on Wednesday September 28 2022, @04:13AM (13 children)
My feeling of guts would be:
1. gazprom trying to get out of contractual penalties using "not under my control" causes...
2. ... Putin being at least indifferent to it, because he wouldn't allow Germany to have gas without something in return anyway (e.g. lifting sanctions) and the things are far beyond the point EU/the West would allow any concessions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 3, Insightful) by quietus on Wednesday September 28 2022, @06:03AM (12 children)
Reason 1 is why the whole theater of no-compressor-due-to-sanctions, followed by oh-noes-oil-leak-in-compressor has been going on with Nordstream-1; and being refuted by the Western side each time (i.e. Siemens experts). So blowing up Nordstream-1 would be an out-of-fines card in terms of commercial law, though one wonders for how long the Russia/China axis is going to recognize WTO's authority, and all the baggage that comes with that.
But why blow up Nordstream-2 along with it? My guess is to send a signal, like with the Zaporhozya nuclear power plant: note that the sabotage took place on Danish territory i.e. NATO territory.
It is maybe noteworthy that Kommersant (a Russian financial newspaper) immediately noted that security had been upped on Norwegian oil and gas platforms and infrastructure amidst reports of unidentified drones [oilprice.com]. Norway is currently [nasdaq.com] the closest main source of gas to the EU.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by c0lo on Wednesday September 28 2022, @07:42AM
As long as they need to interact with Western countries. At the first "defection", any potential business partner will have to either accept the risk of not being able to convert its profits into something that the other accepts or chose one side alone to do business with (assuming it is free to chose, that is).
It was financed by Gazprom and several European energy companies [wikipedia.org]
Same "out of fines" explanation seems plausible.
And the only one that doesn't require seashore LNG terminals, a thing that can help Germany on short term [reuters.com].
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 3, Informative) by c0lo on Wednesday September 28 2022, @07:52AM
Ah, a link down the oilprice.com page that you linked on reads Putin Forces All Energy Workers To Register For Military Draft [oilprice.com]
My vague feeling: Gazprom is going to be declared "strategical national interests", its assets set under military protection (and perhaps its workers overworked without compensation) and any attack against the assets abroad declared an act of war.
In any case, using Gazprom workers as cannon fodder doesn't make sense - gas is one of the few things that a Dutch-diseased [wikipedia.org] Russia has for export.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Username on Wednesday September 28 2022, @10:00AM (9 children)
Why would Russia take away their only leverage over Germany/EU? Just to get some boats in DK territory? Force usage through the Belarus or Turkey piplines?
It makes the most sense for RU enemies to take away RU's main/only economic card to play.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by looorg on Wednesday September 28 2022, @11:23AM (5 children)
Not sure how much of a leverage it is, or was, as most countries that are big into gas for their energy needs already stated that they have enough stockpiled to last the winter and beyond. Sure I guess they need to refill them eventually but it's doubtful that is going to be with gas from Russia. They already made deals with other countries for their future needs.
Perhaps the best reason for blowing them up was just to put an end to it. After all it's not like the rest of Europe is going to start to buy Russian gas again anytime soon so one might perhaps just put an end to it with a bang and then there won't be any need to have any talk, or lies, about missing parts or faulty equipment. The pipe just blew up for unknown reasons and it won't be repaired anytime soon. Russia will sell it's gas in the other direction to countries that like them more and everyone is a winner in that regard.
Still it's somewhat amusing to hear everyone in unison yell Sabotage, as if it was some Beastie Boys cover, and pointing fingers towards Russia. But it seems to be very unclear on the why, who and how side of things except as just being reactions. But I guess we'll find out once the bubbling stops and they can down and have a bit of a look. Cause it's not like the pipes will unexplode and repair themselves.
(Score: 4, Informative) by gnuman on Wednesday September 28 2022, @11:53AM (1 child)
https://erdgasspeicher.de/en/gas-storage/gas-storage-capacities/ [erdgasspeicher.de]
So, gas storage is 23 billion cubic meters. Usage in one year is about 100 billion cubic meters. Most usage is in winter.
TL;DR: there is enough in storage to last, maybe months, not entire winter.
(Score: 3, Informative) by quietus on Wednesday September 28 2022, @05:50PM
Depends on the severity of winter. If winter becomes severe, reserves come down to 3-4 weeks. However, that does not mean that the situation becomes desperate: 2 additional floating LNG terminals will be in place in December, with 3 more following in Spring. And that's for Germany alone.
The Netherlands are going to have an additional LNG terminal operating by next month, if I remember correctly, while my own country (Belgium) wasn't really dependent on Russian gas in the first place and has huge storage capacity near Zeebruges which is being filled as rapid as possible with US gas. And then France is bringing 17 additional nuclear power stations back online by December.
As to the current gas prices, also some nuance: most industrial companies get their gas through OTC i.e. over the counter, privately negotiated, long term contracts. The prices there were/are much lower than the spot prices for futures mentioned in the media. On top of that, the requirement for putting in collateral there is much lower than on gas traded on public exchanges.
Happens to be that German industry buys most of its gas through public exchange, and it is the collateral they have to put down, which is coupled with futures pricing, which is really the problem for industry there. What is a bit puzzling is why we see no government intervention there, apart from bailing out troubled companies: that would immediately lead to lower prices.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by weirsbaski on Wednesday September 28 2022, @04:02PM (2 children)
What if clandestine intelligence found that some countries in Europe were open to buying Russian gas again? Meaning, when those governments compared their other fuel sources and reserves to minimal winter usage, they realized that come January they may face the choice of buying the gas or being ousted in favor of someone else who will?
Blowing up the physical supply lines (and keeping them blown, as needed) would be like an army blowing up the bridge behind it, to ensure that everyone's sufficiently motivated to continue pushing forward.
(Score: 2) by looorg on Wednesday September 28 2022, @04:31PM
A plausible explanation as good as any at this time and with what we know now. Remove the temptation (or option) of buying red-gas if nothing else.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Wednesday September 28 2022, @07:43PM
It's the Germans who decide whether to open the taps for Russian gas through Nordstream for the rest of Europe. They, however, have been preparing their people for a long battle.
(Score: 4, Interesting) by ElizabethGreene on Wednesday September 28 2022, @04:20PM (2 children)
This was my take as well. Europe's energy dependency on Russia gives the latter leverage to keep them in check in a larger conflict. It also gave Russia a way to effectively ignore western sanctions. The latter is the real problem for the US. Russia cannot be allowed to operate a viable alternative transaction settlement system and currency independent of the US Dollar. We will not permit that.
So, who did it? The obvious answer would be Ukraine, as it (at the cost of many Europeans freezing to death) unlocks Europe into actively engaging Russia. Another obvious answer would be the US, for the same reason. Our President is stuck in the cold war, so it is a possibility.
Digging into it, I'd put a wager on a quasi-neutral third-party country that would benefit from the US and Russia crippling each other, coupled with significant civil unrest in Europe, that quietly allows them to step in as a new superpower while the big kids are fighting each other. They wouldn't have done it directly, of course; They would have paid someone to do it, probably North Korea.
Let's see what the 'investigation' uncovers.
(Score: 2) by coolgopher on Thursday September 29 2022, @03:00AM (1 child)
The question of capability and most of all opportunity is where it gets interesting. Access to the Baltic Sea is very limited - Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Russia, Estionia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Germany are the only countries with direct access. Any other actor not going via one of those countries would have to sail in from the North Atlantic through the narrow strait between Denmark and Sweden, a passage which is very well monitored. With US marines having had a presence in the area in the months prior to this incident, and Biden having already expressed a desire to shut down Nordstream, it certainly makes for an interesting theory. One which I'd say only gets strengthened if the official investigations end up "inconclusive". Sweden is currently in no position to call out the US, as Sweden is still attempting to get admittance into NATO. If the US was behind this, executing it in the window between their presence in the area and Sweden becoming a NATO member would seem to make the most sense. As for the explosion in Danish waters, that may have been a backup. At least one of the explosions in Swedish waters was pinpointed to a location that seemed too far away from the actual leak visible on the surface, so possibly whatever explosive device may have become detached and drifted off (disclaimer: I don't know anything about drift patterns in that part of the sea).
Alternatively, were there perhaps some more "interesting" targets that got blown up, with the pipelines merely being the cover for it? Wild theories ftw.
(Score: 2) by coolgopher on Thursday September 29 2022, @12:34PM
And I'm now reading reports of Russian navy support vessels having been sighted near the ruptures on Monday. We're back to suspecting Russia over the US I guess 😂
(Score: 2) by loonycyborg on Wednesday September 28 2022, @06:14AM (1 child)
At the moment EU needs this pipeline the most. Two alternatives are via warzone and via Turkey. I bet Turkey would really love to become the only pipeline controller..
(Score: 3, Informative) by c0lo on Wednesday September 28 2022, @01:17PM
Alternatives to what? To Russian gas or to natural gas from other sources?
Because a thing is clear: for present, there's no Russian gas for Europe no matter which route that gas would take, so you can forget the first.
For the "natural gas from any source that's not Russia":
- today's news https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/27/baltic-pipe-norway-poland-gas-pipeline-opens-in-key-move-to-cut-dependency-on-russia [euronews.com]
- last month's news https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/18/berlin-scrambling-to-import-lng-as-russia-throttles-gas-supply [theguardian.com]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 3, Informative) by legont on Wednesday September 28 2022, @02:29AM
https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/status/1574800653724966915?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet [twitter.com]
He is former foreign affairs minister and current member of euro parliament.
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 4, Interesting) by lentilla on Wednesday September 28 2022, @02:34AM (1 child)
I would not want to be a ship (or submarine) sailing into that. Underwater currents shift, gas bubbles to the surface, instant loss of buoyancy and the ship would sink within ten seconds. Horrible thought.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Wednesday September 28 2022, @07:47PM
All gas will have leaked by Sunday -- causing a methane emission which is the equivalent of Denmarks GHG emissions over a whole year.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 28 2022, @02:41AM (5 children)
Yep, not guarding the pipeline to prevent this damage is going to cost some oligarch(s) a lot of money. I'd be quietly blaming the Russian northern fleet for lax security around the pipeline. Add that oligarch to the list of other powerful Russians that haven't been doing so well since the invasion of Ukraine.
Seems like the list of powerful people with motivation to get rid of Putin is growing. How much longer before he's out, or dead/incapacitated?
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Wednesday September 28 2022, @04:22AM (2 children)
My guess, either:
1. after the most recent mobilization efforts fail to produce anything worth of notice on the front (i.e. I'd give it until end of next spring) *or*
2. Putin decides to ask for nuclear strikes and the other ones that have control over it decide the things got crazy enough to not escalate it any further (there's no russian red button [wikipedia.org], 2 of 3 need to agree and then the lower level army might decide not to carry the order even if they die)
3. dead by natural causes
In all other cases, Putin lives at least until summer 2023.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 1) by shrewdsheep on Wednesday September 28 2022, @10:56AM (1 child)
So he is conditionally immortal, then?
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Wednesday September 28 2022, @12:47PM
I'd say so, with one of the conditions being "until summer 2023, no warranties offered after" (grin)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 2) by isj on Wednesday September 28 2022, @01:59PM (1 child)
You raise an interesting point. The explosions happened in Denmark's exclusive economic zone, so the Russian fleet couldn't patrol that part. Now Russia has an argument why their fleet should be allowed to patrol the whole length of the pipeline.
(Score: 2) by janrinok on Wednesday September 28 2022, @06:08PM
Their submarines can....
(Score: 5, Insightful) by fraxinus-tree on Wednesday September 28 2022, @08:09AM
It is wrong to think about Russia as a rigid body. There are constant rough interactions between the "business" wing of the Russian higher-ups (who would like to continue to sell oil, gas, aluminium, etc... and use the money to influence the decision-making) and the "military" wing (who have in theory more influence but the money flows against them, they are also envious about the money).
The whole not-a-war thing is an escallation of this internal tension. The blown pipelines are completely compatible with the big picture.
(Score: 2, Informative) by John Bresnahan on Wednesday September 28 2022, @11:22AM (4 children)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxXr7Oe_toA [youtube.com]
(Score: 3, Touché) by gnuman on Wednesday September 28 2022, @12:03PM (3 children)
This is just pulling things out of context.
Like I wrote already, the pipelines were already dead. Nord Stream 1 was embargoed by Russia as retaliation for sanctions and Nord Stream 2 was embargoed by Germany due to the war. Nord Stream 1 would be stopped regardless by 2024 as Germany already had enough gas from non-Russian sources. So, this year is the last "opportunity" for Putin to hurt the "US puppets", as he calls it in his head. Hence, he embargoed his own gas.
The pipes were dead for the time being. What Biden said, was done.
So what is this? Putin angry that Germany not coming to Russia, hat in hand, begging for gas?
And it would be really really stupid for US to come along and blow up pipelines. Really really stupid. You do that if you want to burn bridges with your allies. So, extremely unlikely.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 28 2022, @01:16PM (1 child)
Perfect description of the Biden administration.
(Score: 2) by HiThere on Wednesday September 28 2022, @01:32PM
He's made some decisions I thought were stupid, but not in that direction.
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 29 2022, @02:54AM
No, NS 1 was still flowing to industries that were exempt from the embargoes.
And yes, Biden preemptively confessed in that video. Weird that people are ignoring it
And now the US can sell them gas and gouge them on the price, which is already happening. Nobody but the US is benefiting/profiting from this war
(Score: 3, Insightful) by inertnet on Wednesday September 28 2022, @11:39AM (3 children)
Europe lost the option to buy Russian gas via that route. It would be silly to repair that pipeline because sabotage can be repeated at any time.
On the one hand this is good, because Russia loses a money cow, on the other hand the ordinary citizens of both Europe and Russia will be paying the price for years to come.
Follow the money to find out who is likely behind this attack, I really don't have any idea, other than that ruthless people seem to be controlling more and more of this world. Ultimately as a species, we need a way to prevent psychopaths from rising up to unlimited power again. They've been causing too much suffering for as long as humanity has been struggling.
(Score: 2) by gnuman on Wednesday September 28 2022, @11:57AM
Qatar?? Ah!!! So simple!
More seriously, you don't need to follow the money for this. If you follow the money, you find out that the pipelines were dead by choice already. Russia embargoed it's Nord Stream 1 and Germany embargoed Nord Stream 2 due to Ukraine war.
In politics like this now, money is not something to follow anymore. Let's just hope enough sanity remains.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by HiThere on Wednesday September 28 2022, @01:34PM
"Follow the money" of often the way to go. But one can also "follow the power", which may be more important in this case. Unfortunately, it's not as well documented, and it's harder to agree on how to compare things. (And you need to compare them the same way the folks you're evaluating would.)
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 2) by Reziac on Thursday September 29 2022, @02:47AM
China will be more than happy to pick up the slack, as they already do with Russian oil production.
And there is no Alkibiades to come back and save us from ourselves.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Phoenix666 on Wednesday September 28 2022, @04:52PM (3 children)
It is not obvious who sabotaged the pipelines. I could imagine somebody making the case for China, because they would benefit from weakening Russia and Europe both, but I have no idea if they have the capability to sabotage it.
In the short run this is going to hurt Europe, but they have no shortage of engineers, resources, and know-how to fix the situation. If they really want to set themselves up for the long run they'll turn the nuclear power plants and coal-fired plants back on right now and keep their countries running while they double-time the implementation of wind, solar, and other renewables. So in the long run it could wind up being really good for Europe's strategic position.
If the saboteurs did wind up being the China, then that would indicate they are preparing to roll the dice in the short term to sow as much chaos in the West as they can before they make their move to re-take Taiwan and potentially make other resource & territory grabs.
In any case, the potential for WW3 did just spike. I hope Soylentils have prepared.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by oumuamua on Wednesday September 28 2022, @05:43PM (1 child)
Actually the US controls when China attempts to retake Taiwan. China has foolishly laid down many 'red lines' that cannot be crossed. One easy red line is simply to declare Taiwan independent. So the US can start the war whenever it is most convenient simply by saying 'Taiwan is now independent'. China will do an unprovoked attack and we know how it goes from there.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 28 2022, @10:25PM
Not so fast. Taiwan's chip foundries would very likely be damaged in any serious invasion by China. So US isn't likely to start anything until some of the recently announced chip plants in US and Euro are running.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 29 2022, @01:38AM
> In any case, the potential for WW3 did just spike.
Don't tell me the Doomsday Cuckoo Clock, which has been with minutes of Armageddon for the last 30 years... moved even CLOSER to midnight! OMG this must be serious. Somebody should LISTEN to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, their credibility is SUPER SUPER SUPER great.
(Score: 1) by Zappy on Thursday September 29 2022, @07:08AM (1 child)
Lots of sources are quick to blame Russia, while I can't rule it out, I fail to see what Russia has to gain.
These pipelines were the last possible stick/carrot it could dangle in front of the EU coming winter.
Why would they destroy the last leverage they might have.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 29 2022, @01:11PM
First, they get out of any "failure-to-deliver" contract penalties.
Second, it's can't be co-incidence that this happens on the ribbon-cutting day for the Baltic Pipe from Norway to Denmark - so not only do they get to save a bit of money, but they also get to send a very clear message to NATO that the Baltic Sea is not as secure as believed.