from the crawl-out-through-the-fallout-baby dept.
How the World Will Know If Russia Is Preparing to Launch a Nuke:
This week, NATO is conducting its regular, long-planned nuclear strike exercise known as "Steadfast Noon" to practice deploying fighter jets used to carry nuclear weapons. And Russia is expected to conduct its own nuclear drills sometime this month—as it typically does—in reaction to NATO's exercises. While these rehearsals don't involve actual bombs, they come at a fraught moment, given Russian president Vladimir Putin's recent suggestion that the Kremlin could deploy nuclear weapons in its war against Ukraine.
Officials from the United States and the United Kingdom have emphasized that they do not see indications that Russia is actively preparing to launch a nuclear strike. And the signals the global community has to draw on in monitoring the Russian nuclear weapons program, while not infallible, are robust. That means the world would likely know if a nuclear attack were imminent.
"We take any nuclear weapons or nuclear saber-rattling very seriously here," White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters earlier this month. But, she added, "we have not seen any reason to adjust our own strategic nuclear posture, nor do we have any indication that Russia is preparing to imminently use nuclear weapons."
Similarly, Jeremy Fleming, director of the UK's GCHQ intelligence agency, said last week, "I would hope that we will see indicators if they started to go down that path." He added that there would be a "good chance" of detecting Russian preparations.
"With Russia, the arsenal is old and established, much like the US's nuclear weapons program," says Eric Gomez, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute focused on arms control and nuclear stability. "Russia is very much enmeshed in the international and bilateral arms control treaties that provide a lot of transparency. They're not an open book—no country is. Everyone still has certain secrets that they preserve. But if you can keep satellite or aircraft sensors trained on key spots, you can catch it if things are moving or dispersing."
As is the case in the US and among other world nuclear powers, Russia's intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles are always deployed and in a constant state of readiness. Known as "strategic" nuclear weapons, these bombs are meant to target cities or large industrial targets—probably what you think of when you imagine a nuclear bombing. The "tactical" nuclear weapons that are of more immediate concern in a Russian strike on neighboring Ukraine are smaller and meant for more contained attacks, namely in battle zones. These bombs are also known as "battlefield" or "nonstrategic" nuclear weapons and have never been used in combat.
Russia's nuclear bombs are stored in military facilities and would need to be transported and loaded into either aircraft or launchers for deployment. Pavel Podvig, who runs the research organization Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, notes that the global community knows the location of the roughly 12 nuclear weapons storage facilities around Russia where this activity would likely originate. He adds that the US has intimate knowledge of most of the sites because it worked with Russia to improve the physical security of the repositories between 2003 and 2012 as part of an initiative called Cooperative Threat Reduction.
(Score: 3, Flamebait) by Snotnose on Thursday October 20 2022, @09:32PM (32 children)
We figure out where Putin is to the best of our knowledge and and bomb the fuck out of them to the best of our ability without using nukes. This could mean several "unknown" locations get bombed, hopefully a lot of Russian power plants get the "oops, thought he was there" treatment.
Cruise missiles were designed just for this.
I just passed a drug test. My dealer has some explaining to do.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by HammeredGlass on Thursday October 20 2022, @11:01PM (28 children)
I miss the anti-war left.
I hate this new firmware they shoved in your cores.
(Score: 1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 20 2022, @11:27PM
Don't worry, it's self-cleansing with nuclear fire.
(Score: 5, Touché) by Opportunist on Friday October 21 2022, @07:05AM (26 children)
I kinda miss the anti-Russia right.
Ain't it weird? 40 years ago the hardcore left was pro-Russia with nothing these bastards could do could possibly be considered wrong. Today it's the right that's licking Russia's boots.
(Score: 5, Informative) by Thexalon on Friday October 21 2022, @11:39AM (2 children)
If my grandparents' experience in hardcore left circles (including being part of the American Communist Party at one point and being blacklisted by HUAC) is anything to go by, there came a point when American hardcore leftists decided the Russian Commies weren't what they were after, and they mostly drifted away during the late 50's and 60's as it became very clear that Russian leaders were more interested in living in luxury and pursuing their own corrupt and often vile interests than the cause they claimed to stand for.
The world of black hardcore leftists was quite a bit different back in those days, though. Black people generally got treated much better by Russians than by western powers and the US especially. Figures like Paul Robeson were a lot more pro-USSR because of that. At least one of Martin Luther King's close associates was a self-identified communist as well, although MLK had to kick him out of his organization as a condition of getting the Civil Rights Act and Voting Rights Act. But black leftists also eventually stepped away from the USSR as being their salvation, e.g. Black Panther Party leader Stokely Carmichael made a big speech declaring that the USSR and international communism weren't interested in addressing the racial oppression of black people even if they should be ostensibly aligned as fellow members of the working class.
Throughout most of the 70's and 80's, anti-Communism was basically a bi-partisan position. After the Soviet collapse in 1990, the Clinton administration worked hard to try to turn as much of the former Eastern bloc as possible into western capitalist democracies, something that by all appearances their populations wanted, and largely succeeded, to the point where the Russians are busy fighting for control of Ukraine rather than Germany or Poland.
And by a complete coincidence, the NRA has been caught collecting a bunch of money from Russian sources [npr.org], and gives a bunch of money to Republicans [opensecrets.org]. And there's good reasons to think that's not the only pipeline of cash from Russia to the coffers of Republicans in general and Donald Trump in particular.
In the immortal words of Garth, "It's like, people only do things because they get paid. And that's just really sad."
The only thing that stops a bad guy with a compiler is a good guy with a compiler.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Opportunist on Friday October 21 2022, @11:41AM (1 child)
Don't worry, the same happens all over Europe with our right-wing parties. It's an open secret that they're sucking Putin's cock.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by PiMuNu on Friday October 21 2022, @02:45PM
There were lots of rumours that Boris Johnson was pro-Putin, but he seems to have led the charge against Putin's invasion of Ukraine. So I tend to take all of these things with a heavy truck full of salt.
(Score: 2, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 21 2022, @12:59PM (1 child)
Today's hardcore left is pro-Commie, just like it was 40 years ago. Russia isn't Commie anymore, so they have no interest in it.
(Score: 2) by mcgrew on Saturday October 22 2022, @02:42PM
You fascists seem to think that "communist" and "socialist" are synonyms. They're not. Large scale communism, like China or Russia, require an authoritarian government. A large scale socialist government, like Sweden, requires democracy.
Under communism, government controls business. Under fascism, business controls government. I don't see a lot of difference between the two.
Note that those with socialized medicine have better health metrics in every single test, from birth weight to lifespan, than our money-worshiping capitalist medicine? Where but the USA can an accident or illness lead to bankruptcy court?
Carbon, The only element in the known universe to ever gain sentience
(Score: -1, Troll) by HammeredGlass on Friday October 21 2022, @01:40PM (19 children)
There's that firmware at work again. Your understanding is only CNN deep, and you should feel extremely ashamed of that.
fuck fox news too, dipshit
all of the news channels suck Israeli or Raytheon dick, so it doesn't matter which you choose as you still won't be hearing from a non-puppet channel
(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Friday October 21 2022, @07:27PM (18 children)
I didn't watch CNN for about 20 years now. I think the last time I turned on that channel was during the second gulf was when they turned it into a reality soap.
I just look at our political parties and the money flowing in and out of them. That's saying more than any news outlets dare to.
(Score: 0, Troll) by HammeredGlass on Friday October 21 2022, @07:53PM (17 children)
Fine. Your second hand CNN information sources which you so astoundingly trust is just as bad. shame shame shame(tell me you're a Predittor, without telling me you're a Predditor)
Using the NRA for anything conservative is a joke and there is about 15% of cons or Rs that even care to hear anything they've had to say in a decade. That's why we have actual advocacy groups like FPC and GOA nowadays. The 15% of shitstains who call themselves conservative and support the NRA are the same 15% who libtards champion as reasonable Rs or cons. So fuck them and fuck you too.
(Score: 1, Troll) by Opportunist on Friday October 21 2022, @10:12PM (16 children)
Who the fuck is talking about the NRA? Could you please stop lumping everyone who dares to disagree with you into one bag?
(Score: 1) by HammeredGlass on Saturday October 22 2022, @03:40PM (15 children)
right here, asshole
https://soylentnews.org/comments.pl?noupdate=1&sid=52091&page=1&cid=1277665#1277665 [soylentnews.org]
(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Sunday October 23 2022, @09:50AM (14 children)
I am talking about Europe, when did the US get a left?
Please don't tell me you think there is actually a political left in the US.
(Score: 0, Troll) by HammeredGlass on Sunday October 23 2022, @02:37PM (13 children)
go back to sleep, eurotrash
your garbage is why we are in this place to begin with
all of you should be speaking German by now if things went along without the greatest American mistake of getting involved in your dumbass wars, which are none of our concern
(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Monday October 24 2022, @12:07PM (12 children)
It's actually more likely that we'd be speaking Russian now. Doubt you'd like that, considering that this would give Russia the only thing they desperately wanted throughout the 20th century and never got: A harbor that is free of ice for 12 months a year.
(Score: 1) by HammeredGlass on Monday October 24 2022, @02:53PM (11 children)
goddamn, you are such a tool of the system
Crimea is a warm water port where it was agreed since the end of the USSR that Russia would retain access and control of said port where their Sevastopol Naval Base is located. The repeated attempts by Ukraine(pushed by U.S. interests for war)to not hold up that agreement is why things have been this way since 2014 when the last U.S. backed coup, before them shoving the Jewish actor into control this most recent time, is just another in a long line of warmongers trying to start shit with Russia.
(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Monday October 24 2022, @04:51PM (10 children)
Yeah, Crimea is a warm water port. And if the black sea is all you're interested in, it's a great place to anchor.
Getting out of there requires you to play nice with NATO member Turkey, though.
(Score: 1) by HammeredGlass on Monday October 24 2022, @08:31PM (9 children)
you are the tyrant you claim to despise
(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Monday October 24 2022, @10:48PM (8 children)
Nah, I'm just an asshole keeping a troll busy.
(Score: 1) by HammeredGlass on Tuesday October 25 2022, @12:27PM (7 children)
i know you are, but what am i
(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Wednesday October 26 2022, @08:36AM (6 children)
Reading down the moderation you receive for your posts, I'd say most people here would call you a troll.
Kinda weird to ask other people what you are, are you so dependent on someone else's definition of yourself? Have some sense of self-worth, jeesh!
(Score: 1) by HammeredGlass on Wednesday October 26 2022, @01:51PM (5 children)
fuck, you're boring
(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Friday October 28 2022, @06:40AM (4 children)
I'm not here to entertain you, I'm here to entertain me.
(Score: 1) by HammeredGlass on Friday October 28 2022, @05:55PM (3 children)
you're failing on both accounts, you sad bastard
(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Saturday October 29 2022, @09:36AM (2 children)
Not really, I'm pretty entertained.
Though I have to give you credit, you're certainly adding a comedic element with your comments.
(Score: 1) by HammeredGlass on Saturday October 29 2022, @02:08PM (1 child)
you're a cheap date
(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Sunday October 30 2022, @08:24AM
Probably, but not as easy as you. I mean, I kept you engaged with a few lines of drivel and didn't even have to wine and dine you.
You even brought your own lube.
(Score: 2) by mcgrew on Saturday October 22 2022, @02:33PM
Ain't it weird? 40 years ago the hardcore left was pro-Russia with nothing these bastards could do could possibly be considered wrong.
I see you weren't around forty years ago, or were still a child, because that's pure bullshit spewed by the present day racist right. Forty years ago it wasn't "Russia", it was the dying USSR, and American Republicans' (and many Democrats') motto was "Better dead than red". Back then, red was the color of communism. And nobody in America wanted to be like the USSR, whom you seem to confuse with socialist Sweden. Just because the USSR had "socialist" in the name didn't mean it was socialist any more than right to work laws ensure the right to work.
Carbon, The only element in the known universe to ever gain sentience
(Score: 3, Interesting) by bradley13 on Friday October 21 2022, @05:38AM (2 children)
If NATO could take Putin out, they would almost certainly do so. He is a huge international danger at this point.
I expect the biggest problem is taking him out in a way that doesn't start WWIII. It cannot be obvious who did it. A cruise missile can be traced back to its origin. Covert action would be better, which is probably why Putin takes such extreme security measures.
IMHO the thing to do is to give Ukraine the means to attack Russian territory. Provide a them with several dozen cruise missiles. They have every justification. Let Russian citizens be the ones without electricity this Winter...
Everyone is somebody else's weirdo.
(Score: 5, Interesting) by Opportunist on Friday October 21 2022, @07:17AM
I kinda doubt it. Why would NATO want to do something like that? They have a perfect proxy war in Ukraine that pretty much cripples Russia's ability to fight any relevant war without getting involved themselves, at least with their own manpower. Sure, if Putin is stupid enough to use nukes, that changes, but Putin ain't Hitler. Putin (sadly) ain't stupid. I should think that by now it's pretty well known that this man is quite intelligent. His failure was to make a few false assumptions based on experience and false data. Ok, that was a blunder. But he ain't suicidal. He knows that he doesn't really have the nuclear option.
Even in the best case, that is, even if his generals are suicidal enough to execute the order to fire them and if the nukes are in a state that allows them to be launched in the first place (a very, very big IF, because the conventional troops were already in a completely shabby state, what do you expect from weapons that the responsible apparatchik never really thought would see any kind of use?), what's to be expected from such a move? First, the whole narrative that he built up towards his population is out the window. A nuke is an area denial weapon, with long lasting, lingering effects. You don't "liberate" countries with nukes. You destroy and deny them. That's all nukes can do. Then the fallout. And no matter the direction the fallout takes, it's gonna be a shitshow for him. If the wind goes east, he contaminates his own people. North, he contaminates his only ally. And any other direction is going to hit a NATO country which in turn would give them all the justification needed to finally step in for real.
What exactly could Putin gain by using a nuke?
Sure, it's a great deterrent. Until you notice just what using that deterrent means to its user. Then you start to wonder whether he's serious. And then, you're dealing with the eternal truth of weapon proliferation: Only ever draw a weapon if you are also absolutely willing to use it. If you're not, that weapon will eventually be used against you.
(Score: 0, Troll) by HammeredGlass on Friday October 21 2022, @01:44PM
If the Ukrainian puppets of the west had allowed them to keep their promise going back decades to leave Crimean port and naval base alone, then we wouldn't be in this mess, but the warmongers in 90% of Congress want war and don't like Russia cuz they deal with Iran, all things that the State of Israel or Raytheon et al don't like, which is why you have that code in your core to dislike them to.
Listen to the words of American founders who knew it was bad mojo to get involved in old world affairs and wars(yes WWI and WWII as well). fuck you for falling for their bullshit
(Score: 0, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 20 2022, @11:25PM
The bobble head in chief is on the job, we can all rest easy. Mere human mortals can't be trusted with the responsibility, so it was given to a plastic caricature of a human.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Rosco P. Coltrane on Thursday October 20 2022, @11:34PM (8 children)
At my age, I've always had the feeling that things were better during the Cold War. It's an illusion of course: it's just that the Cold War was on when I was a kid, and the past is always rosier in your memory than it actually was. And my parents, who were adults when JFK and Krushshtev almost blew up the world, used to tell me the Cold War was actually awful.
Well it's back and they were right: it sucks.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by Runaway1956 on Friday October 21 2022, @01:23AM (7 children)
This isn't quite like the Cold War. During the cold one, pretty much everyone understood that no one could win. Mutually Assured Destruction and all that.
Today, there are idiots on both sides who believe that they can win a nuclear exchange. Today's world is more dangerous than then. Wait for Biden to go all Doctor Strangelove.
Abortion is the number one killed of children in the United States.
(Score: 5, Informative) by Thexalon on Friday October 21 2022, @12:01PM (6 children)
Your depiction of Biden as a Doctor Strangelove seems to be not in line at all with what he's been saying, at least publicly. For example, this interview on CNN:
-------------
Jake Tapper: How realistic is it, do you think that Putin would use a tactical nuclear weapon?
Joe Biden: Well, I don't think he will. But I think it's irresponsible of him to talk about it, the idea that a world leader of one of the largest nuclear powers in the world says he may use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine. The whole point I was making was it could lead to just a horrible outcome. And not because anybody intends to turn it into a world war, or anything. But it just - once you use a nuclear weapon, the mistakes that can be made, the, miscalculations? Who knows what would happen?
Tapper: What is the red line, for the United States and NATO? And have you directed the Pentagon, and other agencies, to game-out, what a response would be, if he did use a tactical nuclear weapon, or if he bombed the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, in Ukraine, or anything along those lines?
Biden: There's been discussions on that. But I'm not going to get into that. It'd be irresponsible of me, just to talk about what we would or wouldn't do.
Tapper: Have you asked the Pentagon to game it out, though? I mean, just in case?
Biden: The Pentagon didn't have to be asked.
-------------
That sure sounds like a guy who is trying to convey 2 messages very clearly: (1) The US isn't planning on starting a nuclear war, and (2) if Putin tries to start a nuclear war, the US will finish it, and will do much better than Putin does. That's both completely rational and an attempt at deterring a nuclear exchange.
As for Putin, he first threatened to use his nukes in recent months during the speech he gave when he first invaded Ukraine.
The only thing that stops a bad guy with a compiler is a good guy with a compiler.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Runaway1956 on Friday October 21 2022, @12:51PM (5 children)
Yeah, that's the message I get. The point that you seem to be missing is, NO ONE WINS!! Everyone loses, no matter which side they are on, or even if they are just spectators.
Maybe it's time to read 'On the Beach' again, by Nevil Shute. Maybe things won't get that bad - and maybe they will. No one in their right mind should be talking of finishing a nuclear war.
Abortion is the number one killed of children in the United States.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 21 2022, @01:06PM (3 children)
We can already tell that Russia's military equipment is old junk. That could apply to the nukes as well. Maybe the US actually got something from its ten times larger military spending. Something that can disable enemy nukes and make the destruction one-sided. Then you do have a winner who can focus on the real enemy, Chyna.
(Score: 2) by Freeman on Friday October 21 2022, @01:59PM (1 child)
"Climate Change" through "Global Warming" is horrible! Let's send a bunch of Nuclear Bombs to lay waste to one of the Largest Nations on the Planet! Also, make sure to wipe out the Taiga while you're at it!
Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 21 2022, @03:33PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter#Criticism_and_debate [wikipedia.org]
(Score: 1) by Runaway1956 on Saturday October 22 2022, @01:31AM
So, you won't mind if I shoot at you with 100 year old ammunition?
https://www.thetruthaboutguns.com/korean-war-era-ammo-even-stored-under-sub-optimal-conditions-every-round-fired-almost-70-years-later/ [thetruthaboutguns.com]
Let's remember that you don't have to be especially accurate with nukular bombas. Getting it within a couple miles is pretty damned good, since the EMP is gonna knock everything around loopy. If it pops, it pops, if it don't, one of it's brethren will. And, they all help to dirty the environment, whether they explode or not.
Abortion is the number one killed of children in the United States.
(Score: 2) by Thexalon on Friday October 21 2022, @08:24PM
There are 2 main alternatives to dealing with a nuclear power using their nukes:
1. Hit them with whatever you've got.
2. Do nothing.
If you choose option 2, then they got whatever they wanted out of using their nukes, and will now know you won't do anything about it. If you choose option 1, then yes you're in the MAD scenario.
If you're doing the pre-launch diplomacy, then no matter what you actually intend to do, you say or at least strongly imply you're going with the MAD option. And that's because saying anything else is telling them "Hey, if I use my nukes, I can totally get away with it if I say the right things, and I'll accomplish whatever goals caused me to use my nukes in the first place".
Vladimir Putin needs to know that if he uses his nukes in a first strike, he's dead too. Ditto for Xi Jingping, Kim Jong Un, Narendra Mohdi, Arif Alvi, Liz Truss (for another week), Emmanuel Macron, Joe Biden, and probably Yair Lapid. The only way that happens is if everyone else with nukes makes it clear that a first strike will lead to a second strike.
The only thing that stops a bad guy with a compiler is a good guy with a compiler.
(Score: 2) by krishnoid on Thursday October 20 2022, @11:52PM (2 children)
Can't you just check the clock [thebulletin.org]?
(Score: 0, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 21 2022, @07:11AM (1 child)
Is that the scientific unit of Armageddon, the seconds on a watch that appears to indicate between 99.8 and 99.9% chance of nuclear holocaust every year? Those scientists sure are smart.
(Score: 2) by krishnoid on Friday October 21 2022, @07:11PM
Smart enough to distinguish between the measurement of time and the measurement of probability, I guess.
(Score: 4, Funny) by oumuamua on Friday October 21 2022, @12:06AM (4 children)
They kept telling us the big one was coming, only to be scoffed at by mainstream society. Now we have to admit they were right, and dammit even the thing about Iran playing a part is coming true, supplying drones to Russia.
https://www.genolve.com/design/socialmedia/memes/Preppers-warn-sheeple-on-Armageddon [genolve.com]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/religion/2020/01/10/iran-tensions-could-fulfill-prophecies-about-end-world-some-religious-teachers-say/ [washingtonpost.com]
(Score: 4, Interesting) by takyon on Friday October 21 2022, @01:18AM
Blow up the sats!
https://www.teslarati.com/video-starlink-terminal-iran/ [teslarati.com]
Forget free COVID tests, where are our free pills?
https://www.romania-insider.com/romanians-potassium-iodide-pills-pharmacy [romania-insider.com]
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2022-10-13/why-the-war-in-ukraine-has-countries-stockpiling-iodine-tablets [latimes.com]
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-orders-urgent-purchase-large-155000834.html [yahoo.com]
[SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 21 2022, @07:14AM (1 child)
Oh No! The Russians will get my tax money. I hope they fix the roads.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Opportunist on Friday October 21 2022, @07:19AM
Are you kidding? If there was an olympic discipline of embezzling money, Russia would have cornered that more than female shot put. If you think your politicians are embezzling, you will stand in awe of the all-time masters of Russia.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 21 2022, @07:26AM
I was convinced of the truth of the prophecy after reading:
(Score: 3, Touché) by Opportunist on Friday October 21 2022, @07:01AM (2 children)
Probably when RT reports a nuclear incident in one of their missile silos.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 21 2022, @06:25PM (1 child)
(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Friday October 21 2022, @07:25PM
Set the nukes off? I'd be surprised if the whole uran wasn't by now in Iran.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 21 2022, @07:09AM
How do you know an elephant's been in your fridge?
Footprints in the butter.