Arthur T Knackerbracket has processed the following story:
On November 15, 2021, Russia launched a Nudol missile at one of its aging satellites in low-Earth orbit. As intended, the missile struck the Cosmos 1408 satellite at an altitude of 480 km, breaking it into more than 1,000 fragments.
In the immediate aftermath of this test—which Russia carried out to demonstrate to other space powers its anti-satellite capabilities—American and Russian astronauts aboard the International Space Station scrambled into spacecraft in case an emergency departure was needed. They remained in these shelters for about six hours before getting an all clear to return to normal activities.
Following international condemnation for this test, Russian officials claimed that Americans and other officials had overreacted. "The United States knows for certain that the emerging fragments at the time of the test and in terms of the orbit’s parameters did not and will not pose any threat to orbital stations, satellites and space activity," the Defense Ministry of Russia said at the time.
However, in the year since then, there have been a number of close calls resulting from near collisions with an estimated 1,500 trackable pieces of debris from the satellite's destruction. In January, for example, a piece of debris came within just 14 meters of a Chinese science satellite.
The International Space Station has also had to maneuver out of the way of potential impacts on several occasions. It had to do so again on Monday evening, NASA said. To put "an extra measure of distance" between the station and the predicted track of debris from Cosmos 1408, thrusters fired for more than five minutes.
Ironically, the thrusters were those of a Russian Progress vehicle, docked to the station in part to give the laboratory propulsive capability to maintain its orbit and just for such maneuvers.
(Score: 2, Troll) by Opportunist on Wednesday October 26 2022, @03:21PM (5 children)
You could say that Russia fixed its own blunder by using the Progress engines to maneuver the station out of the way.
That's more than can be said for the shit they cause in Ukraine.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by JoeMerchant on Wednesday October 26 2022, @05:11PM (3 children)
As the Russians retreat and evacuate Ukraine, they are starting to... not fix, but at least recognize their own blunder.
On the ISS, it's an interesting demonstration how massive investment trumps nationalist bullshit.
As for their orbital debris, they're about as likely to take responsibility for and clean up that mess as they are to repair the damage they've caused in Ukraine, Afghanistan, etc. - you know: rebuilding the bombed buildings, restoring the dead to life, etc. By comparison orbital debris is relatively easy to clean up, but still about as unlikely to happen.
Україна досі не є частиною Росії Слава Україні🌻 https://news.stanford.edu/2023/02/17/will-russia-ukraine-war-end
(Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 26 2022, @10:47PM (2 children)
Ukrainian Nazi junta will be tried an executed as per Nuremberg precedent.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday October 26 2022, @11:46PM
For what crime? Being labeled nazis?
(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Friday October 28 2022, @06:32AM
You misspelled Putin horribly, ya know.
Well, maybe it's because you usually use Cyrillian letters rather than Latin ones. Your P looks a bit like an inverted U, it's a common mistake.
(Score: 2) by driverless on Thursday October 27 2022, @01:30AM
Well, we're lucky that Putin was so busy playing with his Nudol that he never took the time to fix up the second-best military in the world^H^H^H^H^HUkraine.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Frosty Piss on Wednesday October 26 2022, @03:31PM (8 children)
Low Earth orbit is becoming unacceptably congested with cheap satellites and garbage. Without question, many orbital operations will need to move a little further out.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by pTamok on Wednesday October 26 2022, @04:01PM (6 children)
Like Mars, Mr. Musk?
Low Earth Orbit is just fine. Atmospheric drag will clean in up in a few years. It's why the ISS needs boosting every so often to stop is falling to a fiery death. It is the higher orbits where debris is a problem, as it sticks around for centuries.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Wednesday October 26 2022, @05:14PM (2 children)
Wall-E and Eve [imdb.com] need to team up and de-orbit the junk.
Україна досі не є частиною Росії Слава Україні🌻 https://news.stanford.edu/2023/02/17/will-russia-ukraine-war-end
(Score: 4, Insightful) by crm114 on Wednesday October 26 2022, @05:52PM (1 child)
My thoughts exactly.
Next stop is the moon - and how long before that is orbited by junk? Then Mars. More Junk. It seems humans only know how to leave trash behind them. :/
(Score: 5, Insightful) by Immerman on Wednesday October 26 2022, @06:24PM
I'd bet against much orbital moon junk accumulating - Thanks to the Earth's influence, and a number of gravitational anomalies on the moon itself, it's all but impossible to put something into a stable lunar orbit. And without an atmosphere any debris will crash into the surface like a bomb.
Bottom line, the people investing in developing the Moon's surface will have an immediate vested interest in keeping orbital junk to a minimum, and nobody else will have much reason to put anything in lunar orbit in the first place.
On Earth, leaving trash behind us was never a problem until recently - every species does it, and others clean up after them at a profit. About the worst trash problem we created for most of our existence was leaving millions of years worth of oddly shaped rocks (a.k.a. stone tools and pottery) amidst piles of other rocks. It only started being a real problem in the last few centuries as we embraced environmentally hostile materials and a throwaway culture, while simultaneously increasing our numbers twenty-fold.
Once we're properly in space, trash will be both actively dangerous and a valuable resource - I suspect spacers will rapidly abandon throwaway culture and low-reusability materials. And I have high hopes the combination of enabling technologies and the high-profile of space efforts will help shift things on Earth as well.
(Score: 2) by Immerman on Wednesday October 26 2022, @05:59PM (2 children)
"Just fine" is a bit optimistic, it only holds out so long as debris levels are low enough to dodge reliably. And every dodges come at significant cost in shortened satellite lifetime - which is usually determined by how long the propellant reserves last.
Even in LEO though, a Kessler syndrome could cost us access to those altitudes (and thus low-lag satellite communication) for decades, while making launches and landings to higher altitudes considerably more dangerous. Potentially to the point of ending manned spaceflight.
Keep in mind that the ISS is in relatively low LEO, 400km, while LEO extends to ~2000. And despite its huge atmospheric sails (aka solar panels and radiators) slowing it down, still only needs a boost every few years to keep it near its prefered altitude. It would take considerably longer to actually de-orbit. And Starlink's outer shell (as one example) is at a considerably higher altitude of 550km, and would deorbit considerably slower.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by pTamok on Wednesday October 26 2022, @07:16PM (1 child)
'Just fine' is intended as a slightly ironic statement. If we are stupid enough to fill up LEO with debris, we'll have to wait a while for it to clear up naturally, but stuff does fall out at relatively short timescales (decades, rather than centuries). If we fill up MEO with debris, we will likely need to wait millennia before gaining access to space again. That would be a less than optimal decision.
PDF: ORBITAL DECAY ANALYSIS FOR DEBRIS DEORBITING CUBESATS IN LEO: A CASE STUDY FOR THE VELOX-II DEORBIT MISSION [esa.int]
The smaller and lighter the stuff is, the faster it drops out. Even faster if it has high drag, either by accident, or by design with a drag-sail.
(Score: 4, Interesting) by FatPhil on Wednesday October 26 2022, @11:04PM
200 km 1 day
300 km 1 month
400 km 1 year
500 km 10 years
700 km 100 years
900 km 1000 years
Feel free to extend that to 1700km-2000km (the limits of LEO), and tell me whether that's only "a while" or "relatively short timescales".
(Table from https://www.spaceacademy.net.au/watch/debris/orblife.htm , and barely accurate to 1 s.f., but the trend is obvious.)
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 27 2022, @03:13PM
Except we'll have to go through the debris in low earth orbit. Kessler syndrome isn't needed to drive up insurance rates prohibitively.
(Score: 1) by Runaway1956 on Wednesday October 26 2022, @08:02PM (2 children)
Continue fining them, each and every month, until they do shut down!! See if you can't get a billion Euro-coins out of them!!
Abortion is the number one killed of children in the United States.
(Score: 2) by janrinok on Thursday October 27 2022, @07:06AM (1 child)
Did you intend for your comment to be on the Clearview story? If not, who is fining whom in this one?
(Score: 1) by Runaway1956 on Thursday October 27 2022, @09:47AM
Yes, the comment was intended for the Clearview story. And, I have no idea how I typed that into the wrong tab. DERP!!
Abortion is the number one killed of children in the United States.
(Score: 2) by legont on Wednesday October 26 2022, @10:43PM (3 children)
Progress engines are the only means available to change the station's orbit.
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday October 27 2022, @03:10AM (2 children)
I believe docked vehicles can also provide propulsion by burning excess propellant and have been used at times to help increase the altitude of the ISS. I had heard that they were planning to hook electric propulsion up to help with the load as well. Either way, these methods, even if present, aren't suitable for dodging debris.
(Score: 2) by legont on Friday October 28 2022, @10:00PM (1 child)
As far as I know, Musk promised to make it happen - his modules able to change orbit - but so far only Progress ones are actually doing it.
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday October 29 2022, @03:21AM
Both schemes predate Musk.