To avoid cannibalizing supply for other Pi products, the next model must wait:
Few who have tried to buy a Raspberry Pi in the last year may be shocked, but Raspberry Pi's CEO has an update on the next Raspberry Pi model: it's not arriving next year.
In an interview with ExplainingComputers, Eben Upton reviews the supply pressures that have impacted the single-board computers' availability. Eighteen months into "restrained availability" of the device, Upton says the company is positioned to set aside hundreds of thousands of units for retail customers. He notes that the companies primarily taking up the existing supply of Pi units are not gigantic companies but "mom-and-pop operations" that have based their hardware products on the Pi platform and buy a few hundred Pis for their needs.
"We don't want people to get on a waiting list," Upton tells ExplainingComputuers. "We want people to wake up in the morning, want a Raspberry Pi, then get one at 9 am the next morning."
Into the near future, however, that next-day Pi is likely to be a Pi 3A+, a Pi Zero 2 W, or, later and with some luck, a Pi 4. The Pi 5 is not in the cards any time soon.
"Don't expect a Pi 5 next year... next year is a recovery year," Upton said. "On the one hand, it's kind of slowed us down. On the other hand, it slowed everything down. So there's merit, I think, in spending a year before we look at introducing anything... spending a year recovering from what just happened to all of us."
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Technologist David Bombal has a one-hour interview with Raspberry Pi founder Eben Upton. The interview covers a range of topics, starting with the big questions about unit availability and when more stock will be available.
00:00 - Intro: Tough Environment
00:07 - Intro: Eben Upton hacked the network as a kid
00:40 - Raspberry Pi shortage (stock availability)
07:22 - People say that you're not looking after hobbyists!
10:12 - Raspberry Pi OS is backwards compatible
12:37 - The pain affecting all of us
16:33 - The origin of the Raspberry Pi // How it started
23:16 - Eben hacked the school network // Creating an environment for young hackers
32:05 - Changing the Cambridge and the World
35:00 - African growth and plans
40:03 - General purpose Computer vs iPhone vs Chromebook
43:28 - Possible IPO and Raspberry Pi Foundation
44:50 - The Raspberry Pi RP2040
48:33 - How is Raspberry Pi funded?
49:10 - How is the next product decided?
50:22 - Raspberry Pi Foundation sticking to its roots
51:17 - Advice for the youth or anyone new
56:01 - Changing roles // From tech to business
57:08 - Do you need to go to university? // Do you need degrees?
01:00:05 - Learning from experiences
01:01:44 - Creating opportunities
01:05:05 - Conclusion
No transcript is available and Eben does speak very quickly. Also published on YouTube if you do not have the obligatory LBRY account to block the algorithmic "recommendations".
(Score: 3, Insightful) by looorg on Friday December 23, @02:04PM
I don't need newer and faster models of Pi:s. I need the old working cheap once and lots of them.
(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Friday December 23, @02:14PM (5 children)
So the Pi5 will just be like all the others: Totally unavailable.
(Score: 2) by takyon on Friday December 23, @03:50PM (4 children)
Maybe you don't want it to be available. It sounds like they will move to a new node because the Pi4 product cycle has been so long.
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(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Friday December 23, @05:46PM (3 children)
According to rpilocator, the only two models currently available are the RPi 3A and the CM. The latter is quite useless unless you actually need the CM, the former is an almost decade old design. If you're worried that the RPi4 cycle is too long... how do I put it... it's not really the concern most people have.
RPi 4s that become available are sold out almost the same second they hit rpilocator.
(Score: 2) by takyon on Friday December 23, @08:16PM (2 children)
A minor update from Pi4 and then another 3 year wait for a successor would have been annoying. If they are on a new node, that opens up the possibility of the Pi5 competing directly with RK3588S (lower-cost variant of RK3588 with less I/O), maybe with an 8-core CPU, significantly better GPU, etc. Or at the very least, something with a little more performance and much better power efficiency, so that they can continue to hit their $35 base price target.
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(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Saturday December 24, @08:30AM (1 child)
What matters first and foremost is choosing a set of chips that is actually available. Else they can set their price target at whatever they like, the only price these things are available at will be one where it's simply not interesting. And that means that they will only be used by people who cannot choose a more readily available alternative.
(Score: 2) by takyon on Saturday December 24, @09:00PM
They've already promised to get their products back to MSRPs in 2023. And then launch a Pi 5 after that, maybe in 2024. Presumably they will not have problems on the scale of what they've had the last 2 years when the new model launches.
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(Score: 2) by VLM on Friday December 23, @02:41PM (1 child)
The way it'll play out is raspi will sell them for $15, speculators "know" that people will pay $150, they'll all get bought up.
There are sectors that don't care about cost, mostly education, where the price doesn't matter everything costs so much just pay the crooks and move on with life.
For everyone else, its a dead platform, flush it.
The big thing now seems to be the infinite supply of cheap ESP32 with one of the python's installed on it.
(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Friday December 23, @05:49PM
ESP32s are not a competitor for RPis. At least not the ones that are unobtanium. The only RPi that competes with ESPs is the RPi Pico, and that one has a pretty good availability.
(Score: 1) by shrewdsheep on Friday December 23, @05:07PM (2 children)
The fact that the RPi foundation can afford to skip a full year without innovating shows how entrenched it is. I personally have stopped going further than the Rpi 3. I have done some projects in the last couple of years, but those were based on Zeros. Server/desktop is just not a match for me but there seem to be enough people buying a Pi just to have it lying around. Given my own experience, I see a window of opportunity for competitors to come with something desktop-worthy next year.
(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Friday December 23, @05:56PM
Entrenched, yes, but they are playing with fire here. If their systems remain pretty much unavailable unless you're willing to pay between five and ten times the normal retail price, projects will shift towards other SOCs.
The main reason everyone and their dog wants a RPi now is that most projects that are readily available require a RPi. RPis are the go-to system for projects that need a full system (either because the one creating it doesn't know how to do it on a ESP or Arduino or because they actually do require a full blown system) and a set of easily accessible GPIOs. For now. Because RPis not only were the first but also the ones that are easy to get a hold of.
This changed now. There's plenty of other $fruit Pis now that mostly don't have the same clout because there are fewer projects using them, but they have the unbeatable advantage of being available at normal retail prices instead of requiring you to go to a scalpers.
And a lot of projects are only a rebuild by someone who knows how to do that away from being moved towards and available $fruit Pi.
And once a certain $fruit Pi became the next big tinker go-to model, because they're available now, that's what people who want to do projects will move to.
And then RPi faces the same fate that Arduino is facing right now: People like their software, but the hardware is too expensive and has too limited functionality compared to other hardware that has more functionality and is cheaper. So they'll gladly download and use your compiler, Arduino, but instead of your ATMEL based hardware, they buy the cheaper and more versatile ESP based boards.
(Score: 2) by takyon on Friday December 23, @07:17PM
They already did that, it's called the RK3588 (in several boards), or Intel (e.g. ODROID-H3(+)).
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(Score: 2) by gawdonblue on Saturday December 24, @01:27AM
I do like the Explaining Computers videos from Christopher Barnatt - some of the most informative SBC-related videos on Youtube - but expecially when he signs off and goes into Jim from Friday Night Dinner [youtube.com] mode. I keep waiting for him to say a special hello to Jackie.
Shalom, Christopher.