Huge lithium find may end world shortage – there's a catch:
Lithium, sometimes hyped as white gold, has been highly sought after for its role in battery production, and other things.
Global demand is expected to continue to outstrip supply in the years to come. Albemarle Corporation projects [PDF] lithium demand will rise from 1.8 million metric tons in 2025 to 3.7 million metric tons in 2030 largely due to its role in electric vehicles and other battery dependent devices.
The White House last year said critical minerals – rare earth metals, lithium, and cobalt – "are essential to our national security and economic prosperity."
Alas for the US, the latest cache of this malleable metal has turned up in Iran – one of just four countries America has designated a state sponsor of terrorism.
According to The Financial Tribune, an English language news publication focused on Iran that's operated by Tehran-based Donya-e-Eqtesad, Ebrahim Ali Molla-Beigi, director general of the Exploration Affairs Office of the Ministry of Industries, Mining and Trade, said that Iran has discovered its first lithium reserve in Hamedan Province, in the western part of the country.
The reserve is said to be 8.5 million metric tons, which – if accurate – would be among the largest known deposits yet discovered.
According to the US Geological Survey [PDF], the top five identified lithium reserves are: Bolivia, 21 million tons; Argentina, 20 million tons; Chile, 11 million tons; Australia, 7.9 million tons, and China, 6.8 million tons.
[...] Iran two years ago signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement with China, so its newfound lithium wealth also looks likely to strengthen China's already extensive control of the supply chain for strategically and economically important minerals. This occurred coincidentally not long after the US killed a top Iranian general with a drone strike.
[...] For its part, among other initiatives, the US hopes to boost domestic lithium production this spring with a Berkshire Hathaway Energy Renewables project, based in Imperial County, California. The project aims to extract lithium from geothermal brine and, if successful, could scale up to 90,000 metric tons of lithium per year by 2026, according to the White House.
There's another use of Lithium. A naturally occurring isotope of the element – 6Li – is a key ingredient in the fusion fuel of practical thermonuclear weapons. We mention that because Iran is so very keen on developing its own nuclear weapons.
We also can't bring up Li-6 without mentioning the United States' Castle Bravo thermo-nuke test in the early 1950s that was a much larger bang than expected – a 15MT explosion versus the predicted 6MT – due to the Americans thinking the abundant 7Li isotope in the fuel fusion would be inert. Reader, it was not, it had a sufficient effect on the reaction, and fallout from the experiment was widespread and disastrous.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 07, @05:39PM (11 children)
Looks like Iran's in dire need of some imminent freedumb... start beating those war drums!
(Score: 4, Informative) by Freeman on Tuesday March 07, @09:05PM (4 children)
"freedumb" is possibly one of the dumbest memes/slang terms I've ever heard.
Here's some information hot off the presses:
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3879219-iran-can-produce-enough-material-for-a-nuclear-bomb-in-12-days-pentagon/ [thehill.com]
Some recent headlines from the BBC:
Iran nuclear: IAEA inspectors find uranium particles enriched to 83.7%
Iran sentences German-Iranian dissident to death
Five killed in Israeli strike on Damascus, Syria says
Iran International: Channel leaves UK after regime threats
Iran protests: Female journalists targeted in spate of arrests
Sara Khadem: Top Iran chess player exiled for refusing headscarf
The boxer who fled Iran seeking the freedom to fight
Fariba Adelkhah: French-Iranian academic released from Iran jail
Iran blames Israel for Isfahan drone attack, warning of revenge
Iran dancing couple given 10-year jail sentence
Robert Malley: Iran has a clear choice on nuclear programme
Iran protests: Woman, Life, Freedom inspires dance music album
Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
(Score: 3, Insightful) by cmdrklarg on Wednesday March 08, @06:09PM (3 children)
The term is quite correct when used in the right context (which the AC above did not use).
"Freedumb" is an assertion of one's personal liberty that is motivated by stupidity. A recent example would be anti-maskers during the early stages of COVID19, when there were no vaccines available as a defense against the disease.
What Iran needs is actual freedom from it's religious theocracy. Not the "freedumb" of selfish morons in the US.
Answer now is don't give in; aim for a new tomorrow.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by Freeman on Wednesday March 08, @11:04PM (2 children)
I posit with the poked fun at "freedumb"; you can't have freedom without "stupid". Just because something is "stupid" now (a highly subjective term), doesn't mean it's actually stupid. Even, if it's "stupid/dumb" by your definition, that doesn't automatically mean it should be mandated from on high.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/03/do-masks-work-its-a-question-of-physics-biology-and-behavior/ [arstechnica.com]
Do masks work? It’s a question of physics, biology, and behavior
Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
(Score: 2) by cmdrklarg on Thursday March 09, @04:14PM (1 child)
To minimize going off on a tangent, I will only comment that there are plenty of studies out there that refute the findings of the study you quoted.
Bear in mind that this was in the beginning of the pandemic when we simply did not know what was going to be effective or not. All we had to fall back on was data from other respiratory diseases such as flu, which masking does help with. Masking up at that time coupled with other mitigations was not a bad strategy.
Most of anti-masker's complaints boiled down to "you can't tell me what to do!". Typical "cut off my nose to spite my face" behavior AKA stupidity.
Answer now is don't give in; aim for a new tomorrow.
(Score: 2) by Freeman on Friday March 10, @04:41PM
It was far from uncontroversial and the recommend actions (wearing a cloth mask) was just plain dumb at least the way the media told the story. Talking to doctors, they were like, yeah, a cloth mask is going to do nothing to stop you from getting a respiratory infection. It may help, if everyone is wearing one. But, it won't help you not get it. It will only help you not spread it. Even then, it won't be terribly effective. Essentially no one was saying that, though. In the event that you're not employing "Fit Testing", you're just flying by the seat of your pants anyway.
Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
(Score: 3, Interesting) by looorg on Tuesday March 07, @10:16PM
Considering they have Oil they should have been on the freedom train already. But it has not worked out very well so far. Not for a lack of trying tho, a large portion of the current fail and mess can probably be put in the lap of the UK and USA already. That said now that they have both Oil and Lithium perhaps it's time to think it over again and give it another try. Or there will be some radical peace process steps as we all again become instant BFF before they become even better friends with Russia and China, that would probably piss of Israel and Saudi Arabia tho so it might be time to pick sides and friends again in this geopolitical game of musical chairs.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday March 09, @05:37AM (4 children)
One would hope that if your country became as terrible as Iran is now, your fellow citizens would grab some of that imminent freedom and overthrow that government.
When I looked through some history of Iranian protests under the present Republic, I saw a number of "biggest protests since 1979" (see here [washingtontimes.com], here [wionews.com], and here [newsweek.com] for recent examples). In other words, there's a history of escalating protests over decades. But I'm sure that such mass uprisings are solely the fault of American freedumb. Nobody would ever want to be free of such a cruel government on their own.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 10, @03:27AM (3 children)
The funny thing was when Iran looked like it was becoming a better place, the US and UK overthrew the government: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat [wikipedia.org]
Go figure.
(Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Friday March 10, @06:04AM (2 children)
By stealing Britain's shit, oil fields and the Abadan oil refinery - the largest refinery in the world at the time. As to your statement, it didn't actually become a better place did it with 70 years of terrible governments and mass suffering? Actions have consequences.
My take is that every time a country disregards the rule of law, treating that as a mere speed bump to their agenda, people suffer. The US and Britain have blood on their hands here, but they wouldn't have done anything, if Iraq had respected Britain's ownership rights or even taxed them moderately (or entered into a reasonable profit sharing plan). One merely needs to look at Hong Kong to see a more effective approach to the British problem - long term lease followed by peaceful handover.
I suppose you could consider this blaming the victim. But seriously, they got greedy and took massive assets that Britain had built during the Second World War. Why wouldn't they expect Britain to do something about?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 10, @08:43AM (1 child)
Who was really stealing from who? If someone forced me to sign an unfair contract is it still legal?
How much was Iran's share?
Of course it didn't become a better place - the UK and USA screwed stuff up.
Try to keep up.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Friday March 10, @05:48PM
What did Iran do to develop those assets? How much did they spend? 0% right?
(Score: 2) by r1348 on Tuesday March 07, @05:47PM (3 children)
Revolution in Iran!
(Score: 2) by Gaaark on Tuesday March 07, @06:28PM (2 children)
More probably the U.S. will find deys got dem Weepons de Massive Deeestrucshun!
--- Please remind me if I haven't been civil to you: I'm channeling MDC. ---Gaaark 2.0 ---
(Score: 2) by Freeman on Wednesday March 08, @03:45PM (1 child)
Sure, whatever. My question is this. Do you want Iran to have Nuclear Weapons? As things progress, they will likely have Nuclear Weapons in the next decade. Their populace is highly repressed by their authoritarian regime. Probably even more so than China. The more countries open up to trade and travel between other countries, the more repressive governments will have to deal with. At least in regards to personal freedoms of their people.
Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
(Score: 2) by r1348 on Saturday March 11, @01:48PM
Historical records shows only one country ever used nuclear weapons on the civil population, and it wasn't Iran.
(Score: 2) by oumuamua on Tuesday March 07, @05:49PM (4 children)
Nice boon for those countries, especial Bolivia which can claw its way out of poverty if it plays its cards right.
Maybe Argentina now has some leverage over the Falkland Islands: https://apnews.com/article/falkland-islands-argentina-britain-agreement-territory-db36e7fbc93f45d3121faf364c2a5b1f [apnews.com]
And why is Cuba still on that list, at this point the US is just holding a grudge: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/cuba-shouldnt-sponsor-terrorism-list-former-us-officials-say-rcna52728 [nbcnews.com]
(Score: 5, Insightful) by higuita on Tuesday March 07, @06:42PM (2 children)
The problem is usually LOT of money involved, so it is easy to bribe some politician and wave the flag of job creation and infrastructure development, but in the end, mining corps extract what they can, care little about the workers and environment around them and export the raw product to other countries, negating much of the profit that each country could have. Yes, they still get lot of money, just like all oil producer country get lot of money from it, yet that is just a fraction of the final price and usually a very small fraction of it
Many times, when some new politician enters the game and try to force some status quo change, they either end receiving a bribe, a "coup d'etat" by faction friendly to the mining companies and their origin countries or simply a assassination. Iran is actually one of the few countries that managed to do that and yet it is in the US blacklist since then
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 07, @08:40PM (1 child)
Truth - discovery of raw materials is one of the worst things to happen to a developing country. If Iran can become a tech economy producing its own batteries then it may escape the fate of other countries [slate.com].
(Score: 2, Touché) by khallow on Wednesday March 08, @03:34AM
The only thing worse is not having such raw materials.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Friday March 10, @05:54PM
Doubtful. Just because lithium is more valuable now doesn't mean fish is. The value of the Falkland Islands haven't changed a bit and Argentina still doesn't have enough at stake to justify tangling with the UK navy.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by darkfeline on Tuesday March 07, @10:04PM (2 children)
I love the sustainability of the push to move over to fully electrified infrastructure. It doesn't get better than relying on limited rare earth metals.
Join the SDF Public Access UNIX System today!
(Score: 4, Touché) by MIRV888 on Wednesday March 08, @02:19AM (1 child)
Yeah battery tech is permanently going to use lithium because steam locomotives rock.
(Score: 3, Funny) by Freeman on Wednesday March 08, @03:50PM
Don't worry in the next 10 years, we'll have a revolution of battery technology. So, let's assume that will happen and just take it on faith that our infrastructure will be able to handle it. I mean, who cares about that science stuff! Let's build all public policy on the idea that we'll just have this electric grid stuff figured out by then. It can't be that hard. Plus, we can just fire up some coal plants, if worst comes to worst. That'll make things better.
Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 07, @10:48PM (13 children)
It will just build a bigger cartel. We need "shortages" to avoid a price collapse
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday March 08, @04:07AM (12 children)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 08, @04:54AM (11 children)
That's right. Mutual interest is the glue that holds them together, nothing at all to to do with "loyalty"
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday March 08, @02:45PM (10 children)
And self-interest is the solvent that tears them apart.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 09, @04:37AM (9 children)
That only happens when things are going well and they feel no threats, giving them time to bicker
(Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday March 09, @05:40AM (8 children)
And if they choose not to throw their competitors under the bus to assuage those threats. We have real world cartel and competitive market behavior which clearly shows contrary self-interest all over the place. There's something wrong with the narrative.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday March 09, @07:25PM (7 children)
Not at all, (you just take personal offense because it destroys your narrative), it is working as designed, so what if they eat their young like everybody else... The system works, certainly has you fished in
(Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday March 09, @09:05PM (6 children)
So now that you've walked back entirely your argument, you're blaming me for naivety? Pull my other finger and see what happens next!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 10, @11:07PM (5 children)
Non-responsive, as usual
(Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday March 11, @08:59AM (4 children)
If you can't figure out what a response looks like, then get lost. Grown ups are talking.
I get tired of idiots who can't write coherently nor put even a single word down in defense of an argument. It's not that hard. Maybe think before you write next time instead of doing the edgelord tool shtick?
Going back to the thread discussion rather than your idiocy, we have plenty of real world cartels and such we can study. We don't need to take your word for anything. And when we do, we see defection is not only a possibility, it happens a lot. For example, OPEC is the classic example of a pretty open cartel (that is, you get a good view of its inner workings) which has huge problems with defection to the point of self-parody. Everyone will solemnly swear to produce so much oil and sell at such high price. In practice, everyone overproduces. The price really only rises when the demand grows or supply shrinks. It's not any different than a typical competitive market as a result.
The huge factor you've been missing all along is standard game theory: the prisoner's dilemma [wikipedia.org]. Every member of a cartel can benefit if they maintain the pricing. But usually they can benefit even more, if they encourage everyone else to restrict their supply and then undercut everyone else. That's the dynamic that matters. Near monopoly oligopolies have a lot more going for them than merely coordinated behavior as a result. They eliminate the prisoner's dilemma one way or another.
One possibility is the presence of penalties that will cost more than complying with the cartel scheme. That's a typical Mafia approach. You start stepping on crime families' toes, then you start sleeping with the fish. Another is that the profitability of the cartel benefit versus compliance has such a large slope that it's just not worth defecting. This was the case with the California electricity crisis where minor drops in electricity resulted in very expensive, mandatory purchases on California's spot price market. It also didn't require a lot of compliance in order to work (due to the defective design of the market and the obligations of two of the three large electricity utilities).
Sorry, I don't buy that the lithium market falls in one of these special cases.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 11, @09:32PM (1 child)
yes, very funny... You're not one of them.. You have made no "argument" You're just hand waving. The world is run by cartels, mobsters with violent intent towards noncompliance. They treat you nice because you're so soft
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday March 12, @12:00AM
Interesting narrative. Do you have any evidence for it? Or are you doing that handwaving thing?
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 11, @09:37PM (1 child)
Whoops! There you go again, with your "infrastructure" shtick.. just more excuses and blame passing.. You are so repetitive!
(Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday March 11, @11:55PM
At this point, I'm mystified what the problem is suppose to be. Cartels have well-known behaviors. Game theory explains them pretty well. It's yet another subject which you apparently need to understand better. But maybe if you keep telling me about your broken model of cartel behavior, it'll somehow become relevant?