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posted by janrinok on Sunday March 26 2023, @06:43PM   Printer-friendly

Newly-revealed coronavirus data has reignited a debate over the virus's origins:

Data collected in 2020—and kept from public view since then—potentially adds weight to the animal theory. It highlights a potential suspect: the raccoon dog. But exactly how much weight it adds depends on who you ask. New analyses of the data have only reignited the debate, and stirred up some serious drama.

The current ruckus starts with a study shared by Chinese scientists back in February 2022. In a preprint (a scientific paper that has not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a journal), George Gao of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) and his colleagues described how they collected and analyzed 1,380 samples from the Huanan Seafood Market.

These samples were collected between January and March 2020, just after the market was closed. At the time, the team wrote that they only found coronavirus in samples alongside genetic material from people.

There were a lot of animals on sale at this market, which sold more than just seafood. The Gao paper features a long list, including chickens, ducks, geese, pheasants, doves, deer, badgers, rabbits, bamboo rats, porcupines, hedgehogs, crocodiles, snakes, and salamanders. And that list is not exhaustive—there are reports of other animals being traded there, including raccoon dogs. We'll come back to them later.

But Gao and his colleagues reported that they didn't find the coronavirus in any of the 18 species of animal they looked at. They suggested that it was humans who most likely brought the virus to the market, which ended up being the first known epicenter of the outbreak.

But....

Fast-forward to March 2023. On March 4, Florence Débarre, an evolutionary biologist at Sorbonne University in Paris, spotted some data that had been uploaded to GISAID, a website that allows researchers to share genetic data to help them study and track viruses that cause infectious diseases. The data appeared to have been uploaded in June 2022. It seemed to have been collected by Gao and his colleagues for their February 2022 study, although it had not been included in the actual paper.

[...] "This finding was a really big deal, not because it proves the presence of an infected animal (it doesn't). But it does put animals—raccoon dogs and other susceptible species—into the exact location at the market with the virus. And not with humans," Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada and a coauthor of the report, tweeted on March 21.

[...] There's more drama to this story. Débarre and her colleagues say they told Gao's team their findings on March 10. The next day, Gao's team's data disappeared from GISAID, and Débarre's team took their findings to the World Health Organization. The WHO convened two meetings to discuss both teams' results with the Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens (SAGO).


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  • (Score: 2, Funny) by krishnoid on Sunday March 26 2023, @06:55PM (2 children)

    by krishnoid (1156) on Sunday March 26 2023, @06:55PM (#1298248)

    There were a lot of animals on sale at this market, which sold more than just seafood. The Gao paper features a long list, including chickens, ducks, geese, pheasants, doves, deer, badgers, rabbits, bamboo rats, porcupines, hedgehogs, crocodiles, snakes, and salamanders. And that list is not exhaustive—there are reports of other animals being traded there, including raccoon dogs. We'll come back to them later.

    You poke a stick at one of them, and they'll probably run off. Some humans, on the other hand will get infected, gather together in underventilated indoor spaces, refuse a horribly mutagenic vaccine [xkcd.com], and order people to return to indoor spaces [aboutamazon.com] without putting in place site-specific epidemiological monitoring [wa.gov]. I'll take my chances with the rodents, fowl, and inbetween.

    • (Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 29 2023, @04:15AM (1 child)

      by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 29 2023, @04:15AM (#1298590)

      Censored.news

      Brighteon.com

      • (Score: 2) by janrinok on Wednesday March 29 2023, @08:36AM

        by janrinok (52) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday March 29 2023, @08:36AM (#1298610) Journal

        How can it be censored news? You have just linked to a web page full of whatever the owners of brighteon.com what to say in their 'Live Daily Broadcast', and there is no restriction on who can access it. Several of their sources are from Fox News.

        Is this a new definition for the word 'censored'?

        Maybe it is not as popular as you think it ought to be, but perhaps that is because others don't think it is worth viewing.

  • (Score: 2, Informative) by Runaway1956 on Sunday March 26 2023, @07:05PM (18 children)

    by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Sunday March 26 2023, @07:05PM (#1298250) Journal

    China has been grasping at straws since the pandemic started, in their attempts to "prove" that they had nothing to do with it. If it could be convincingly demonstrated that raccoon dogs were the natural vector from bats to humans, Gao and all the rest of China's scientists would have released that information 3 years ago, instead of that whole pangolin nonsense.

    This passage pretty much nails it:

    If you ask a proponent of the lab leak theory, it means nothing. There is no new conclusive evidence that the virus jumped to humans at the Huanan Seafood Market, or that raccoon dogs were involved.

    Occam isn't believing any of this "new data".

    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday March 26 2023, @07:24PM (1 child)

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Sunday March 26 2023, @07:24PM (#1298253) Journal
      It is suspicious that the Chinese researchers nuked the data once they or their management realized it was accessible to outside researchers.

      There's more drama to this story. Débarre and her colleagues say they told Gao's team their findings on March 10. The next day, Gao's team's data disappeared from GISAID, and Débarre's team took their findings to the World Health Organization. The WHO convened two meetings to discuss both teams' results with the Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens (SAGO).

      • (Score: 3, Insightful) by JoeMerchant on Sunday March 26 2023, @08:49PM

        by JoeMerchant (3937) on Sunday March 26 2023, @08:49PM (#1298263)

        Disappearing data is the opposite of ethical behavior.

        Moreso in research work.

        Moreso squared in issues of public health.

        Transparency is always the answer.

        --
        🌻🌻 [google.com]
    • (Score: 4, Insightful) by Mykl on Sunday March 26 2023, @10:10PM

      by Mykl (1112) on Sunday March 26 2023, @10:10PM (#1298266)

      I agree that the CCP's shifty behavior around this for the past few years certainly leads reasonable people to believe that they are covering something up. There's far more reason to cover up a lab leak than there is a virus transmitting from an animal to humans. Especially when said lab is in the exact city that the outbreak began and specifically investigates things like Coronaviruses and how they might transmit from animals to humans.

    • (Score: 5, Insightful) by driverless on Monday March 27 2023, @02:18AM (4 children)

      by driverless (4770) on Monday March 27 2023, @02:18AM (#1298287)

      Occam said "shit happens, get over it" about two years ago when he got tired of the neverending churn of whodunnit and moved on to other stuff. Like the Kennedy assassination conspiracies, in twenty years people will still be arguing over this, and here's some new evidence my cousin found at the back of his barn under a beer crate that proves this, that, or the other. And in forty years. And sixty years. And in ninety years when the Theta-zelians make contact the second thing we'll ask them, right after "why do you have three arms?" will be "where did Covid really come from?".

      Shit happens. Get over it and move on.

      • (Score: 2, Funny) by Runaway1956 on Monday March 27 2023, @04:13AM

        by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Monday March 27 2023, @04:13AM (#1298297) Journal

        The Kennedy assassination? Babushka lady was Trump's mama, setting things up to ensure that Donny would be president one day. That's where the Russian collusion started.

      • (Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 27 2023, @07:23AM

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 27 2023, @07:23AM (#1298311)
        More importantly, let's just say China is to blame. Are you still going to depend on them to give you sufficient warning in advance the next time they accidentally/purposely release a pandemic level virus? Or other countries for that matter.

        After all if China gets punished too severely for this, there might be even greater motivation to cover stuff up deeper the next time stuff happens - whether it's China or some other country.
      • (Score: 3, Insightful) by Immerman on Monday March 27 2023, @07:54PM (1 child)

        by Immerman (3985) on Monday March 27 2023, @07:54PM (#1298384)

        Agreed.

        From a pandemic response perspective knowing where it originated is moderately useful - with enough details it could help pin down specific details that could be changed to reduce future risks.

        But short of discovering it was intentionally engineered and released, the details are irrelevant to everyday people.

        Seems like the wet market and the lab are the two leading possibilities, since they're obvious danger spots. But who cares?

        If we find out it came from the lab, does that make semi-tropical wet markets a good idea?
        Of course not.
        If we find out it's the wet market, does that mean doing gain-of-function research in inadequately secured* labs is a good idea? (*pretty sure I've heard of at least one unrelated leak of something less dangerous from the lab in question)
        Of course not.

        Both are ongoing pandemic risks, and pinning the blame on one, or even on something else entirely, makes no difference to the risks they pose.

        If we want to ask questions, I'd much rather we focus on the important questions - namely: what went wrong AFTER we realized there was a problem, that made the problem much worse. So that we can try to fix that before the next pandemic (because there will *always* be a next pandemic)

        - China clearly went into information blackout mode about the virus shortly after they realized there was a problem. Why, exactly? And what can we do to encourage them to be more open next time?

        - Some politicians, especially in the US, ignored the risks, and/or played into conspiracy theories, making the response far more protracted and less effective than it had to be. Why? And what can we do to reduce it next time?

        -etc.

        • (Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday March 29 2023, @11:14AM

          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday March 29 2023, @11:14AM (#1298616) Journal

          Seems like the wet market and the lab are the two leading possibilities, since they're obvious danger spots. But who cares?

          Because one purpose of finding out is to prevent it from happening again.

          If we find out it came from the lab, does that make semi-tropical wet markets a good idea?
          Of course not.

          What do you base that assertion on? Wet markets are a source of nutrition. You'll need a replacement. And how important it is to replace them will depend in large part on how dangerous they actually are. Merely asserting that they are "of course" a bad idea doesn't make it so.

    • (Score: 3, Interesting) by oumuamua on Monday March 27 2023, @02:42AM (1 child)

      by oumuamua (8401) on Monday March 27 2023, @02:42AM (#1298289)

      We'll sanction some of their companies
      We'll ban their mobile apps
      We'll build new military bases all around them and sell more arms to Taiwan
      That'll teach em!
      /s

      • (Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday March 29 2023, @11:17AM

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday March 29 2023, @11:17AM (#1298617) Journal
        Keep in mind that China's present troubles are probably due to covid (particularly their refusal to discuss what went on in that Wuhan research facility) and their support of Russia in the Ukraine war. If they source more diseases like covid, they may indeed find themselves in more "teach em" moments.
    • (Score: 5, Interesting) by janrinok on Monday March 27 2023, @11:46AM (7 children)

      by janrinok (52) Subscriber Badge on Monday March 27 2023, @11:46AM (#1298323) Journal

      If what you say is true, then China would have been only too keen to prove that the virus occurred naturally and was unrelated to any scientific research that they were carrying out. However, the link between racoon dogs and other animals, and the transfer to yet other animals (of which class we are a member) had been proven long BEFORE the pandemic began. This paper [nih.gov] details the connection as far back as 2002 so 'it had already been proven' - you just choose to ignore it. The transfer to or from man is still debatable but the risk posed by racoon dogs is well documented.

      The fact is that they didn't do that. Perhaps they hoped that another country would take the blame for the origin but that didn't work out too well for them.

      • (Score: 1) by Runaway1956 on Monday March 27 2023, @12:48PM (6 children)

        by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Monday March 27 2023, @12:48PM (#1298326) Journal

        Ahhhhh, that's good, janrinok. But the paper doesn't seem to mention that infamous spike.

        In point of fact, those half dozen miners who got sick from bat guano seem to be proof enough that SARS viruses are transmissable to humans. The question is, where, how, and when, did COVID19 develop that spike. SARS-CoV-2 was proven to be deadly without any spike. The spike makes it more deadly. We're talking closely related viruses here, be we're not talking about the same virus. Something happened between 2002 and 2020, that caused the COVID virus to develop that spike.

        Going back to Occam, those original miners treatment seems to have been, in part, responsible for the virus developing a strong preference for the human respiratory system. The later manipulation of the virus in the lab gave the virus it's spike, which is perfectly suited for infecting the respiratory system.

        • (Score: 3, Interesting) by janrinok on Monday March 27 2023, @06:13PM (5 children)

          by janrinok (52) Subscriber Badge on Monday March 27 2023, @06:13PM (#1298363) Journal

          These things are always mutating - there have been over 6 mutations that have been detected in France alone. The spike is just another one and it does nothing to support your claims that it has been developed in a laboratory and not in the wild. The spike, or a spike, has been detected in wild animals. It neither proves or disproves anything.

          • (Score: 1) by Runaway1956 on Monday March 27 2023, @10:55PM (4 children)

            by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Monday March 27 2023, @10:55PM (#1298407) Journal

            I stand with Occam. It's no coincidence that the pandemic started outside the doors of the lab working on exactly what this virus turned into.

            • (Score: 3, Insightful) by janrinok on Tuesday March 28 2023, @08:39AM (1 child)

              by janrinok (52) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday March 28 2023, @08:39AM (#1298460) Journal

              It's no coincidence

              How do you know? You don't like the idea because it doesn't fit your views. Why not wait until we have EVIDENCE and then make a decision?

              • (Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday March 29 2023, @11:20AM

                by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday March 29 2023, @11:20AM (#1298618) Journal

                Why not wait until we have EVIDENCE and then make a decision?

                Presently, it looks like we'll have to wait until we get new government in China to get that EVIDENCE. That's the coincidence that bothers me right now.

            • (Score: 2) by janrinok on Wednesday March 29 2023, @08:47AM (1 child)

              by janrinok (52) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday March 29 2023, @08:47AM (#1298612) Journal

              If you were going to create a lab to study such viruses wouldn't it make sense to put it where those viruses can be found easily? It also prevents potentially infected material from having to be shipped elsewhere which reduces the risk it poses rather than increases it. If you want to prevent such a virus wouldn't you still need to know what you need to do to make something that would meet the requirement? Every major country is conducting similar research to identify cures for medical problems rather than to create weapons to be used against others.

              You are clutching at straws and trying to make a case for your own beliefs. Try getting evidence rather than speculation upon which to base your arguments.

              • (Score: 1) by Runaway1956 on Wednesday March 29 2023, @11:25AM

                by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday March 29 2023, @11:25AM (#1298619) Journal

                I'm clutching at straws? No, you're being silly. As you point out here, those COVID viruses do not occur anywhere around the wet market, naturally. The viruses were introduced by man. The argument is whether those viruses were accidentally introduced by way of the animals going through the market, or the viruses were introduced by way of the lab.

                There are zero convincing arguments for the animal vector.

                You're not convinced by the lab argument.

                Occam has had his say. Go argue with Occam.

  • (Score: 5, Funny) by guest reader on Sunday March 26 2023, @07:58PM (11 children)

    by guest reader (26132) on Sunday March 26 2023, @07:58PM (#1298257)

    Would it be possible to just lock covid infected bat, a raccoon and a test pig into the same room and see if the pig gets infected?

    • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Sunday March 26 2023, @08:52PM (7 children)

      by JoeMerchant (3937) on Sunday March 26 2023, @08:52PM (#1298264)

      Yes, but it proves nothing, and ruins several pounds of perfectly good bacon.

      --
      🌻🌻 [google.com]
      • (Score: 2, Troll) by Opportunist on Sunday March 26 2023, @10:10PM (6 children)

        by Opportunist (5545) on Sunday March 26 2023, @10:10PM (#1298267)

        Just use some Chinese guy instead of the pig. Won't somebody think of the bacon?

        • (Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Sunday March 26 2023, @11:14PM (5 children)

          by JoeMerchant (3937) on Sunday March 26 2023, @11:14PM (#1298271)

          Our research pigs came directly from the Oscar Mayer farm / slaughterhouse / processing plant in Miami.

          We didn't have a supplier of Chinese guys.

          --
          🌻🌻 [google.com]
          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 27 2023, @12:14AM (4 children)

            by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 27 2023, @12:14AM (#1298272)

            Did you look in the mail order brides catalogs? Why does it have to be a guy?

            • (Score: 2) by Opportunist on Monday March 27 2023, @06:54AM (3 children)

              by Opportunist (5545) on Monday March 27 2023, @06:54AM (#1298308)

              The mail order brides catalogues don't have guys?

              That's kinda sexist when you think about it. That's discrimination against women. And gay people.

              • (Score: 3, Funny) by janrinok on Monday March 27 2023, @11:49AM (2 children)

                by janrinok (52) Subscriber Badge on Monday March 27 2023, @11:49AM (#1298324) Journal
                Have you looked in the mail order groom catalogues? - I'm not surprised that you are not finding what you are looking for.
                • (Score: 4, Funny) by Opportunist on Monday March 27 2023, @11:54AM (1 child)

                  by Opportunist (5545) on Monday March 27 2023, @11:54AM (#1298325)

                  Are you implying that men can't identify as brides? I'm shocked, someone hand me my pearls, they need some clutching!

                  • (Score: 3, Touché) by Freeman on Monday March 27 2023, @03:19PM

                    by Freeman (732) on Monday March 27 2023, @03:19PM (#1298343) Journal

                    Personally, I try to keep my pearls where they are, not handed to me on a platter.

                    --
                    Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 28 2023, @12:11PM (1 child)

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 28 2023, @12:11PM (#1298481)

      But then you have to tell a barkeeper's joke. Good luck with that.

      • (Score: 2) by Freeman on Tuesday March 28 2023, @02:30PM

        by Freeman (732) on Tuesday March 28 2023, @02:30PM (#1298496) Journal

        Oopps, I meant to respond here.

        Chat-GPT entry: Can you finish this joke? "A covid infected bat, a raccoon dog and a test pig, walk into a bar"

        The bartender takes one look at them and says, "Sorry, we don't serve your kind here." The bat responds, "But don't you know who we are? We're the latest viral sensation!"

        --
        Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
    • (Score: 2) by Freeman on Tuesday March 28 2023, @02:29PM

      by Freeman (732) on Tuesday March 28 2023, @02:29PM (#1298495) Journal

      Chat-GPT Entry: Can you finish this joke? "A covid infected bat, a raccoon dog and a test pig, walk into a bar"

      The bartender takes one look at them and says, "Sorry, we don't serve your kind here." The bat responds, "But don't you know who we are? We're the latest viral sensation!"

      --
      Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
  • (Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 27 2023, @12:30AM

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 27 2023, @12:30AM (#1298273)

    Well of course! Without secrecy you can't make up crazy conspiracy theories for fun and profit!

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