Microsoft CEO warns of 'nightmare' future for AI if Google's search dominance continues
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella warned on Monday of a "nightmare" scenario for the internet if Google's dominance in online search is allowed to continue, a situation, he said, that starts with searches on desktop and mobile but extends to the emerging battleground of artificial intelligence.
Nadella testified on Monday as part of the US government's sweeping antitrust trial against Google, now into its 14th day. He is the most senior tech executive yet to testify during the trial that focuses on the power of Google as the default search engine on mobile devices and browsers around the globe.
[...] even more worrisome, Nadella argued, is that the enormous amount of search data that is provided to Google through its default agreements can help Google train its AI models to be better than anyone else's — threatening to give Google an unassailable advantage in generative AI that would further entrench its power.
[...] In addition to training its models on search queries, Google has also been moving to secure agreements with content publishers to ensure that it has exclusive access to their material for AI training purposes, according the Microsoft CEO. In Nadella's own meetings with publishers, he said that he now hears that Google "wants ... to write this check and we want you to match it." (Google didn't immediately respond to questions about those deals.)
The requests highlight concerns that "what is publicly available today [may not be] publicly available tomorrow" for AI training, according to the testimony.
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Dozens of exhibits from the Google antitrust trial are still being hidden from the public, The New York Times Company alleged in a court filing today.
According to The Times, there are several issues with access to public trial exhibits on both sides. The Department of Justice has failed to post at least 68 exhibits on its website that were shared in the trial, The Times alleged, and states have not provided access to 18 records despite reporters' requests.
[...]
Currently, The Times said it is seeking to unseal redactions in two exhibits, and it remains "unclear why the exhibits have been redacted" because "they date to 2007 and relate to a version of an agreement between Apple and Google that has not been operative for more than a decade."Perhaps most notably, The Times has also asked the court to unseal testimony from Apple exec Eddy Cue and Google vice president and general manager of ads, Jerry Dischler, in their entirety.
"The Court has upheld redactions to certain transcripts in the absence of a showing by the parties on the public record that the sealing is justified and without providing its own 'full explanation of the basis for the redactions," The Times alleged, "even though some of the redactions have been applied to material that is both of great public interest and goes to the core of the litigation."
Previously:
Microsoft CEO Warns of "Nightmare" Future for AI If Google's Search Dominance Continues
In mid-June 2019, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and CEO Satya Nadella received a rude awakening in an email warning that Google had officially gotten too far ahead on AI and that Microsoft may never catch up without investing in OpenAi.
With the subject line "Thoughts on OpenAI," the email came from Microsoft's chief technology officer, Kevin Scott, who is also the company's executive vice president of AI. In it, Scott said that he was "very, very worried" that he had made "a mistake" by dismissing Google's initial AI efforts as a "game-playing stunt."
[...] As just one example, Scott warned, "their auto-complete in Gmail, which is especially useful in the mobile app, is getting scarily good."
Microsoft had tried to keep this internal email hidden, but late Tuesday it was made public as part of the US Justice Department's antitrust trial over Google's alleged search monopoly.
[...] In an order unsealing the email among other documents requested by The Times, US District Judge Amit Mehta allowed to be redacted some of the "sensitive statements in the email concerning Microsoft's business strategies that weigh against disclosure"—which included basically all of Scott's "thoughts on OpenAI."
[...] Mere weeks later, Microsoft had invested $1 billion into OpenAI, and there have been billions more invested since through an extended partnership agreement. In 2024, the two companies' finances appeared so intertwined that the European Union suspected Microsoft was quietly controlling OpenAI and began investigating whether the companies still operate independently. Ultimately, the EU dismissed the probe, deciding that Microsoft's $13 billion in investments did not amount to an acquisition, Reuters reported.
On Friday, Google started defending its search business during the Justice Department's monopoly trial. Among the first witnesses called was Google's senior vice president responsible for search, Prabhakar Raghavan, who testified that Google's default agreements with makers of popular mobile phones and web browsers were "the company's biggest cost" in 2021, Bloomberg Law reported.
Raghavan's testimony for the first time revealed that Google paid $26.3 billion in 2021 for default agreements, seemingly investing in default status for its search engine while raking in $146.4 billion in revenue from search advertising that year. Those numbers had increased "significantly" since 2014, Big Tech on Trial reported, when Google's search ad revenue was approximately 46 billion and traffic acquisition cost was approximately $7.1 billion.
[...]
Pichai will likely provide additional insights into how Google's smart investments are responsible for creating the search empire it maintains today, Reuters reported. But he will also likely face the DOJ's inquiries into why Google invests so much in default agreements if it's not a critical part of the tech giant's strategy to stay ahead of the competition.The DOJ is not likely to back down from its case that default agreements unfairly secured Google's search market dominance. On Friday, Big Tech on Trial reporter Yosef Weitzman—who has been posting updates from the trial on X—suggested that things have gotten tense in the courtroom now that the "DOJ seems emboldened to push for more information to be public after Judge Mehta's comments yesterday that not all numbers need to remain redacted."
According to Weitzman, the DOJ today pushed to "make public the 20 search queries Google makes the most revenue off of, as well as Google's traffic acquisition costs related to search (the total amount of money Google paid to partners in search distribution revenue shares)."
Previously:
Google, DOJ Still Blocking Public Access to Monopoly Trial Docs, NYT Says 20231020
Microsoft CEO Warns of "Nightmare" Future for AI If Google's Search Dominance Continues 20231004
(Score: 5, Insightful) by JoeMerchant on Wednesday October 04 2023, @06:43PM (1 child)
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella should know very well how powerful tech monopolies can be and what a nightmare scenario that can turn into. One we're still living in the shadow of today, for example.
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 4, Interesting) by Tork on Thursday October 05 2023, @07:00AM
🏳️🌈 Proud Ally 🏳️🌈
(Score: 5, Insightful) by Rosco P. Coltrane on Wednesday October 04 2023, @06:51PM (9 children)
We've all been living in a Windows and Office nightmare at work because their dominance continues and the DOJ didn't break them up when it had a chance decades ago.
That's rich coming from them...
(Score: 4, Insightful) by DannyB on Wednesday October 04 2023, @07:15PM (5 children)
Boo hoo, Microsoft complaining about monopolies. So sad. Poor pity for Microsoft.
I remember when Google was a couple guys with a research project up against search giant Alta Vista. And of course Alta Vista displaced others such as Lycos, and names I no longer remember. Forgetting the earlier search engines makes me want to say ya hoo!
Here is a time honored idea: build something better. People will come flocking to your door. It has happened before. Many times.
A WHERE clause on a SQL UPDATE statement is just adding unnecessary complexity to something simple.
(Score: 5, Informative) by GloomMower on Wednesday October 04 2023, @07:26PM (2 children)
It is my understanding that in machine learning and AI the advantage comes from having more data. So the argument is if you are able to get more data you will be unstoppable and keep having more and more an advantage so that your competitor can't make something better because you keep getting more data and they get less.
I think it would apply for anyone that gets more than 50% user share, the advantages end up being exponential. I don't think blocking google would solve the problem as it would just be someone else. Who would that someone else be?
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Mykl on Wednesday October 04 2023, @09:35PM
More data is certainly helpful, but it's not the be-all and end-all. Better models and the ability to identify and filter out 'bad data' are even more important. Do we remember when Microsoft's new chatbot had to be pulled from the internet within 1 day of launch after it started spouting pro-nazi opinions?
My take on Nadella's testimony. He certainly wouldn't be against monopolies and unfair advantages, so long as it's Microsoft that is the beneficiary of them.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 05 2023, @05:27PM
I've found that Yandex is actually better than Google for some searches e.g. image searches where I don't need exact match.
And some web searches too (maybe Google is better at blocking off copyright infringement stuff ).
Haven't found Bing or DDG useful like that, so I rarely fall back to using them.
For me Google is still better than Yandex as the default web search though. But for image search it's close to 50:50 with Yandex - I'll often try Yandex image search first (it's easy with the Search by Image firefox extension anyway).
But Google still seems worse nowadays than before. So make a better search and I'll happily switch. There's plenty of room for improvement and Yandex proves that it's possible to be better than Google at least in some stuff. So Microsoft should actually be embarrassed that with all their resources they can't do better. That said they seem to be terrible at search on all their products? Windows, Outlook, Teams?
Even Eudora (from 1990s to 2006) has better search than Outlook: https://imgur.com/a/rVGLQUo [imgur.com]
GUI based, no need to know special keywords and syntax etc. There's also starts with and ends with.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Wednesday October 04 2023, @08:33PM (1 child)
>build something better. People will come flocking to your door. It has happened before. Many times.
Not since 2004 [wikipedia.org].
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 04 2023, @10:04PM
What does have to do with their search dominance? Build something better, don't sell out, and Google will lose its position.
(Score: 4, Interesting) by krishnoid on Wednesday October 04 2023, @10:12PM (1 child)
Let's not forget Microsoft's own nightmare foray into artificial intelligence [theverge.com] that they had to take down within the day. Google (and OpenAI) will have an unassailable advantage over Microsoft, probably because they're that much more competent when it comes to research projects.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 05 2023, @02:04AM
Microsoft is joined at the hip with OpenAI now.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 05 2023, @12:10AM
The nightmare you know is better than the nightmare you don't know?
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Coligny on Thursday October 05 2023, @05:55AM
Google is at the exact same point as microsoft in the 90.
Their products are getting incredibly shittier by the day (youtube, google search…) but everyone only use them so they just stay there like king turd in top of shit mountain.
If I wanted to be moderated by mor0nic groupthinking retards I would still be on Digg and Reddshit.
(Score: 2) by krishnoid on Thursday October 05 2023, @06:47PM (1 child)
As opposed to the nightmare present [slashdot.org].
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 05 2023, @07:11PM
Oh no, not the memes!
(Score: 2) by dwilson98052 on Friday October 06 2023, @10:33PM
....microsoft is upset because they're still losing at search.
You'll excuse me if I don't feel bad for ya.