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posted by hubie on Wednesday October 16 2024, @01:01PM   Printer-friendly
from the if-a-kessler-syndrome-is-not-triggered-first dept.

Charlie Stross, a science fiction writer based in Scotland, has written a post about different possible approaches to space colonization. He includes a discussion of several different models.

While the strong form of the Sapir-Whorf hypothesis is evidently invalid, a weaker version—that language influences thought—is much harder to argue against. When we talk about a spaceship, a portmanteau word derived from "[outer] space" and "ship", we bring along certain unstated assumptions about shipping that are at odds with the physical parameters of a human-friendly life support environment for traversing interplanetary distances. Ships, in the vernacular, have captains and a crew who obey the captain via a chain of command, they carry cargo or passengers, they travel between ports or to a well-defined destination, they may have a mission whether it be scientific research or military. And of these aspects, only the scientific research angle is remotely applicable to any actually existing interplanetary vehicle, be it a robot probe like Psyche or one of the Apollo program flights.

(Pedant's footnote: while the Apollo crews had a nominal commander, actual direction came from Mission Control back on Earth and the astronauts operated as a team, along lines very similar to those later formalized as Crew Resource Management in commercial aviation.)

Anyway, a point I've already chewed over on this blog is that a spaceship is not like a sea-going vessel, can't be operated like a sea-going vessel, and the word "ship" in its name feeds into various cognitive biases that may be actively harmful to understanding what it is.

Which leads me to the similar term "space colony": the word colony drags in all sorts of historical baggage, and indeed invokes several models of how an off-Earth outpost might operate, all of which invoke very dangerous cognitive biases!

There are few more models which he missed.

Previously:
(2022) Moon Life 2030
(2022) Why Werner Herzog Thinks Human Space Colonization "Will Inevitably Fail"
(2020) Elon Musk Will Run Into Trouble Setting Up a Martian Government, Lawyers Say
(2018) Who Owns The Moon? A Space Lawyer Answers
(2017) Stephen Hawking Urges Nations to Pursue Lunar Base and Mars Landing
(2015) NASA Working on 3D Printers to Print Objects Using Martian Regolith


Original Submission

Related Stories

NASA Working on 3D Printers to Print Objects Using Martian Regolith 13 comments

One major issue faced in the quest to colonize other heavenly bodies is how to get all the raw materials transported in a financially feasible manner.

Trove reports a possible solution using 3-D printers to build materials required using native reources as ink:

That might be all they need if a plan by Niki Werkheiser and her engineering team at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center works out. They are experimenting with a 3-D printer that would make bricks suitable for airtight buildings and radiation-proof shelters using the grit that blows across Mars’s red surface. In Huntsville, Ala., Ms. Werkheiser, NASA’s 3-D print project manager, is starting to print curved walls and other structures using imitation Martian sand as an ink. Engineers at the European Space Agency are exploring ways to use lunar dust as an ink to print out an entire moon base. London-based architects Foster + Partners have designed a printable lunar colony.

It would make sense for colonization to send automated or remote-controlled fabrication units ahead to prepare a settlement for human habitation, but does that sensible step endanger the science due to the risks of contamination?

Stephen Hawking Urges Nations to Pursue Lunar Base and Mars Landing 37 comments

Stephen Hawking wants humanity to pursue a Mars mission in the mid-2020s rather than the mid-2030s:

Prof Stephen Hawking has called for leading nations to send astronauts to the Moon by 2020. They should also aim to build a lunar base in 30 years' time and send people to Mars by 2025. Prof Hawking said that the goal would re-ignite the space programme, forge new alliances and give humanity a sense of purpose.

He was speaking at the Starmus Festival celebrating science and the arts, which is being held in Trondheim, Norway. "Spreading out into space will completely change the future of humanity," he said. "I hope it would unite competitive nations in a single goal, to face the common challenge for us all. "A new and ambitious space programme would excite (young people), and stimulate interest in other areas, such as astrophysics and cosmology".

Prof. Hawking also talked about interstellar travel:

[We'll] never know how hospitable Proxima b is unless we can get there. At current speeds, using chemical propulsion, it would take 3 million years to reach the exoplanet, Hawking said. Thus, space colonization requires a radical departure in our travel technology. "To go faster would require a much higher exhaust speed than chemical rockets can provide — that of light itself," Hawking said. "A powerful beam of light from the rear could drive the spaceship forward. Nuclear fusion could provide 1 percent of the spaceship's mass energy, which would accelerate it to a tenth of the speed of light."

NASA usually talks about planning for "Mars 2035". Who is trying to get there by 2025?

A Mars mission architecture SpaceX Chief Executive Elon Musk will unveil in September will call for a series of missions starting in 2018 leading up to the first crewed mission to the planet in 2024, Musk said June 1.

Related: Elon Musk's Plans for Mars and Beyond Revealed
Elon Musk Publishes Mars Colonization Plan


Original Submission

Who Owns The Moon? A Space Lawyer Answers 26 comments

Did the Stars and Stripes on the moon signify the establishment of an American colony?

Most likely, this is the best-known picture of a flag ever taken: Buzz Aldrin standing next to the first U.S. flag planted on the Moon. For those who knew their world history, it also rang some alarm bells. Only less than a century ago, back on Earth, planting a national flag in another part of the world still amounted to claiming that territory for the fatherland. Did the Stars and Stripes on the moon signify the establishment of an American colony?

[...] Still, the simple answer to the question of whether Armstrong and Aldrin by way of their small ceremony did transform the moon, or at least a major part thereof, into U.S. territory turns out to be “no.” They, nor NASA, nor the U.S. government intended the U.S. flag to have that effect.

Most importantly, that answer was enshrined in the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, to which both the United States and the Soviet Union as well as all other space-faring nations, had become a party. Both superpowers agreed that “colonization” on Earth had been responsible for tremendous human suffering and many armed conflicts that had raged over the last centuries. They were determined not to repeat that mistake of the old European colonial powers when it came to decide on the legal status of the moon; at least the possibility of a “land grab” in outer space giving rise to another world war was to be avoided. By that token, the moon became something of a “global commons” legally accessible to all countries—two years prior to the first actual manned moon landing.

So, the U.S. flag was not a manifestation of claiming sovereignty, but of honoring the U.S. taxpayers and engineers who made Armstrong, Aldrin, and third astronaut Michael Collins’ mission possible. The two men carried a plaque that they “came in peace for all mankind,” and of course Neil’s famous words echoed the same sentiment: his “small step for man” was not a “giant leap” for the United States, but “for mankind.” Furthermore, the United States and NASA lived up to their commitment by sharing the moon rocks and other samples of soil from the lunar surface with the rest of the world, whether by giving them away to foreign governments or by allowing scientists from all over the globe to access them for scientific analysis and discussion. In the midst of the Cold War, this even included scientists from the Soviet Union.

Case closed, no need for space lawyers anymore then? No need for me to prepare University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s space law students for further discussions and disputes on the lunar law, right?

Elon Musk Will Run Into Trouble Setting Up a Martian Government, Lawyers Say 67 comments

Elon Musk will run into trouble setting up a Martian government, lawyers say:

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is steadfast in realizing his dreams of establishing a permanent colony on Mars, but any new government there will face immense legal challenges.

We got an early glimpse of what such a future society could look like, buried deep inside the user agreement for SpaceX’s Starlink satellite internet service.

“For services provided on Mars, or in transit to Mars via Starship or other colonization spacecraft, the parties recognize Mars as a free planet and that no Earth-based government has authority or sovereignty over Martian activities,” the terms of service read. “Accordingly, disputes will be settled through self-governing principles, established in good faith, at the time of Martian settlement.”

[...] Lawyers, however, have their doubts about SpaceX’s abilities to set up a Martian state. In fact, several told The Independent in a new story, what SpaceX has laid out in its Starlink user agreement isn’t radically different from space treaties that have been signed over the years.

[...] For instance, the 2020 Artemis accords stipulate that “outer space is not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation, or by any other means.”

[...] “[Musk] could be trying to lay some groundwork for offering up an independent constitution… just like he did for electric cars and reusable launch vehicles,” [Randy Segal, of the law firm Hogan Lovells] told The Independent. “Does it have any precedent or enforceability? The answer I’d say is clearly no; but if you say something enough, people might come around.”


Original Submission

Why Werner Herzog Thinks Human Space Colonization “Will Inevitably Fail” 110 comments

https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2022/03/ars-talks-to-werner-herzog-about-space-colonization-its-poetry/

Last Exit: Space is a new documentary on Discovery+ that explores the possibility of humans colonizing planets beyond Earth. Since it is produced and narrated by Werner Herzog (director of Grizzly Man, guest star on The Mandalorian) and written and directed by his son Rudolph, however, it goes in a different direction than your average space documentary. It's weird, beautiful, skeptical, and even a bit funny.

In light of the film's recent streaming launch, father and son Herzog spoke with Ars Technica from their respective homes about the film's otherworldly hopes, pessimistic conclusions, and that one part about space colonists having to drink their own urine.


Original Submission

Moon Life 2030 5 comments

https://www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/63694132

So according to NASA humans could be living on the moon, for long periods of time, before the end of the decade. So from more or less nothing to (pre-) colonization in about seven (or eight) years then. At least the moon is closer then Mars, but you are probably still borked if something goes wrong.

"We're going to be sending people down to the surface and they're going to be living on that surface and doing science," Mr Hu said.

"It's really going to be very important for us to learn a little bit beyond our Earth's orbit and then do a big step when we go to Mars.

"And the Artemis missions enable us to have a sustainable platform and transportation system that allows us to learn how to operate in that deep space environment."

Big question then is -- if asked (or given the opportunity) would you go?


Original Submission

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  • (Score: 2) by pdfernhout on Wednesday October 16 2024, @02:23PM

    by pdfernhout (5984) on Wednesday October 16 2024, @02:23PM (#1377245) Homepage
    --
    The biggest challenge of the 21st century: the irony of technologies of abundance used by scarcity-minded people.
  • (Score: 4, Touché) by Type44Q on Wednesday October 16 2024, @02:50PM (1 child)

    by Type44Q (4347) on Wednesday October 16 2024, @02:50PM (#1377246)

    Nothing but semantic masturbation; color me unimpressed.

    • (Score: 3, Insightful) by khallow on Wednesday October 16 2024, @07:14PM

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday October 16 2024, @07:14PM (#1377272) Journal
      Indeed. Of this first section, he was the problem he complained about - dragging semantics baggage in when it wasn't a problem in the first place. The people who will trip up over spaceship wouldn't have had any relevance to spaceships in the first place.
  • (Score: 2, Interesting) by khallow on Wednesday October 16 2024, @03:32PM (22 children)

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday October 16 2024, @03:32PM (#1377247) Journal

    PS/Administrative Note: All comments referring by his given name to a certain multi-billionaire of South African origins who owns his own space program will be deleted by the moderators (I don't want the world's richest man to sue me for libel, or to be dogpiled by his glassy-eyed fans doing a google search). If you can't think of your own nickname for him, feel free to call him "Space Karen" or "Dilbert Stark".

    When moderators will delete your comments for saying "Elon Musk", that indicates that there's considerable bias in the room. It also shows in Stross's attempts to discount every model he comes up with:

    It is difficult for me to conceive of how a military colonization model might apply unless we succeed in taking our dysfunctional social structures into deep space and well beyond Low Earth Orbit. (In LEO, all you need are ground-launched weapons platforms: not a colony.)

    I can think of few better topics to choose than a bunch of starry-eyed settlers on the high frontier getting trapped in the coffin corner of a three axis constraint diagram with axes representing delta vee, energy, and consumables.)

    Yes, yes I do! In a nutshell: companies are artificial social constructs that offload all their externalities onto the state they are embedded in. If the company is the entire habitat, then it can only offload "useless eaters" via the airlock. Babies are useless eaters—they don't change their own diapers! So.

    Religious colonies can in fact get shit done in harsh environments, as witness the Plymouth Colony. The things they get done can include witch hunts and mass executions of unbelievers, poisoning the neighbours with smallpox infested blankets, going full Jonestown, and experimentally verifying the feasibility of building The Republic of Gilead in orbit around Jupiter, only now with 100% less escape routes to Canada.

    In a nutshell, the Polynesian model suffers from a combination of the failure modes of the homesteader model and (pick any combination of) all the others—the Religious retreat, the company town, the military expedition: living off the land is really hard when there's not actually any land, nor a supply chain able to manufacture spacecraft, nor a biosphere to overrun.

    But what he misses every single time is that these are models that have worked in the past. And notice how many of his complaints are about the dreadful character of the examples he chooses to think about rather than actual limitations of colonization. This really is about colony governance not colonization models. Just choose governance models that don't suck.

    When one goes to actual models of colonization, it's a series of choices, some mentioned in his article: like how big to make the initial colony or how self-sufficient it should be. But the unsaid biggest (by Stross) will be what technology - including as yet undeveloped - will you use? That's what made the models viable, not the character of the models. They had enough tech to make it work.

    That gets addressed in comments, particularly by a Mickdarling:

    [Mickdarling:] RE: Education, environmental upkeep, food supplies, maintenance, and transport can all be automated today on another planet if you put the resources into it. Bullshit.

    [Charles Stross:] If you think I'm wrong, prove it by pointing to examples of this happening here on Earth, where if things go wrong we can walk over and fix them in person.

    Answering the last point first, isn't the whole point of these 'colonies' to have people there? If they are there, they can walk over and fix things. The goal of automation isn't to build a civilization from dirt to skyhook unattended, it's to allow the production of some large multiple of X (food, education, material production, maintenance, healthcare, etc.) per human needed to kick with a lunar boot when things go haywire.

    As to the need for examples, and why you don't have them ready at hand here on earth, I should not have to be the one to explain to you that the economics here on Earth are different than they would be out there. Human labor is incredibly cheap here, as are plants, and air, and bugs, and full 1G gravity, and a host of other things.

    So lets tackle earth examples:

    Education: Primary thru Graduate level: Home schooling, with remote learning, along with correspondence courses. e.g. Edison was nearly entirely homeschooled. Spread ten kids out across mars and you can still hook em up to a remote learning setup, not far off what millions dealt with for years under Covid. Ramanujan famously learned mostly in isolation and through correspondence. Newton and Maxwell both did some of there most famous work in isolation. Data storage is cheap, and guided education through any reading material is not a hard problem when the cost of not being able to find the right manual will get you killed.

    Environmental Upkeep and Food: Check out https://farm.bot/ [farm.bot] for something that is highly automated. There are some large scale automated pot growing systems that put this to shame, and there are no unhurdlable obstacles to making these with easily plug and play designs that could be shipped off to any of a thousand orbiting rocks. Hydro and Airponics are also proven tech and highly automate-able. Bioreactors for Algae have been tried for O2 production and mostly failed, but again, the economics haven't incentivized the investment. I've worked on 3D printed tissue scaffolds that grew complex living tissue in bioreactors. The economics favored putting it on a shelf and millions more for research rather than productize anything. That is here on Earth, not if you are somewhere out there. The hardest parts might simply be dropping a large enough volume of environmentally controlled tin cans on whatever rock you are aiming at.

    Production and Maintenance: Additive manufacturing for is obviously a lot easier than shipping up a full Ford Motor manufacturing plant prototyping machine shop. check out the video of a 3D printed rocket engine. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOFyRBsP-YY&t=24s [youtube.com] and the article here
    " rel="url2html-2091495">https://builtin.com/articles/3d-printed-rocket#:~:text=3D%2DPrinted%20Rocket%20Definition&text=At%20this%20time%2C%203D%2Dprinted,travel%20and%20Mars%2Dbound%20missions.

    Maintenance doesn't need to be robots rebuilding robots. It just needs to be efficient enough and the urgency low enough for a few people to manage large infrastructure production and repairs. Remote Waldos are used today for nuclear power plants where the economics and safety trump doing things by hand. https://www.jsm.or.jp/ejam/Vol.5No.1/NT/NT54/NT54.html#:~:text=The%20manipulator%20developed%20by%20MHI,This%20produces%20the%20following%20merits. [jsm.or.jp] and
    " rel="url2html-2091495">https://www.ans.org/news/article-6355/savannah-river-turns-to-drones-for-inspecting-waste-tanks/

    Oh, and check out just a few cool automation tools in the mining industry here: https://design1st.com/portfolio/neptec-3d-lidar-sensor/ [design1st.com] and literally tons of modern mining equipment has been automated to the point of rarely needing people in the driver's seat while in production. Onsite dynamic LIDAR doubles for Transport of goods and personnel too. Or, just drive really slow and remote from light minutes away. What's the hurry?

    You asked for examples, so there you go. I suspect this is a game of No True Scotsman and no examples will ever be perfect to suffice in your present morose mood. Living in these different environments is an process challenge. The processes we have here only vaguely match what they will out there, but they are not inconceivable, or unmanageable.

    Maybe try to find insoluble problems here on Earth. Not ones that haven't been solved here, but ones that CANNOT be solved here. That might be the only problem you'll fail to solve.

    In comparison, there is the intellectual helplessness throughout the discussion such as:

    [Graydon:] An organism is a mechanism that turns food into shit.

    An ecology is a mechanism that turns shit into food.

    We don't know how this works.

    The immensity of our ignorance is presently poorly quantified in this regard; it's not "there's a problem to solve" (like re-entry with aerobraking via non-ablative means) but "we haven't got names for the fields of study we don't know exist".

    Unless and until we can build an ecology we can understand, the only possible spaceflight model is a stored-victuals sort of model where you can go out and maybe get simple things (gases, water) but your ability to do anything is constrained by your food stores. You could handwave destinations other than Earth (not very many of them; Cherryh's Union Space setting does this) where there's already a usable ecology on that planet, but everything in space must have a planetary ecology supplying it with the necessities of life. Call it the Ocean Liner model; quite large, quite fast, interesting cultural consequences, but no ability to create new destinations or otherwise expand the network.

    In other words, because Graydon can't think that hard about this subject, it must mean we're all totally ignorant about such subjects. I suggest the field of "Biology" as a counterexample to the idea that we don't even have a name for it yet.

    I guess my take is that we probably will need to look elsewhere. As to the derogatory nicknames for Elon Musk, one of them, "Space Karens" seems better applied to those more concerned about our allegedly terrible choices for space governance than thinking seriously about the subject.

    • (Score: 4, Insightful) by HiThere on Wednesday October 16 2024, @04:27PM (16 children)

      by HiThere (866) on Wednesday October 16 2024, @04:27PM (#1377252) Journal

      Stross is incredibly pessimistic, but he identifies real problems. Hand-waving way the real problems is not an answer. OTOH, a lot of what he identifies a problems have reasonable answers. I'm not sure why he dislikes the idea of space habitats.

      OTOH, space habitats have some real problems that are going to require advances in, among other things, social modeling, and probably virtual reality. The actuality of a space habitat will probably be so constrained during the next century that the virtual reality will be needed as an escape mechanism. Sort of the way video games are now, only more thoroughly.

      You WON'T be able to have a libertarian society in space. Period. The lives of everyone depends on the habitat remaining secure. But this puts on a amount of pressure that needs a relief. Population growth will need to be strongly controlled. But this puts on a amount of pressure that needs a relief. Etc.

      Don't deny that the problems exist, figure ways around them.

      --
      Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
      • (Score: 2, Insightful) by khallow on Wednesday October 16 2024, @05:13PM

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday October 16 2024, @05:13PM (#1377254) Journal

        Stross is incredibly pessimistic, but he identifies real problems. Hand-waving way the real problems is not an answer.

        Handwaving the problems isn't either.

        You WON'T be able to have a libertarian society in space. Period. The lives of everyone depends on the habitat remaining secure. But this puts on a amount of pressure that needs a relief. Population growth will need to be strongly controlled. But this puts on a amount of pressure that needs a relief. Etc.

        There's all these weird, unprovoked attacks on libertarianism, for example. It's not just in your post. Stross wrote:

        Sharp, poisonous dirt? Liquid methane? The proper answer to such questions is "Libertarian space-scum fuck off."

        If you have the tech, then a lot of governance systems become feasible. I don't take such criticisms seriously when there's no indication that they (or you) know what libertarianism is in the first place.

      • (Score: 3, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 16 2024, @05:59PM (14 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 16 2024, @05:59PM (#1377257)
        Indeed. I remember reading Heinlein's The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress, which was basically his imagining a libertarian / anarcho-capitalist society out of a prison colony on the moon. The entire thing was laughable in how unrealistically rational he made all the inhabitants of the moon behave. Humans in general are hard pressed to behave rationally at the best of times, and obvious and certain death as the consequences of certain actions is no bar to irrationality. I seriously doubt that the men in such a colony would actually decide to give the far fewer women a higher status in their society merely thanks to them being so much less numerous. Someone who feels slighted or wronged would never decide to just open an airlock out of spite and kill everyone on the colony? On the contrary that kind of self-destructive, irrational behaviour has been displayed all too often in real people. There was far more fantasy in that book than in anything Tolkien ever wrote. I would believe dragons and balrogs existed before believing people in such a situation would really behave in such a way. On the contrary, any such society with real people in it would likely degenerate into something more like Lord of the Flies, or the Hobbesian war of all against all unless some kind of strong government or some other social mechanism were present to enforce norms essential to the survival of such a society.
        • (Score: 2, Insightful) by khallow on Wednesday October 16 2024, @07:16PM (12 children)

          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday October 16 2024, @07:16PM (#1377274) Journal

          On the contrary, any such society with real people in it would likely degenerate into something more like Lord of the Flies,

          Like it does... um... where? I think we have plenty of examples of societies on Earth that just don't have the Lord of the Flies problem.

          • (Score: 2, Disagree) by VLM on Wednesday October 16 2024, @09:08PM (3 children)

            by VLM (445) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday October 16 2024, @09:08PM (#1377287)

            Humans invented religion as a technology to solve the problem of "Humans in general are hard pressed to behave rationally at the best of times, and obvious and certain death as the consequences of certain actions is no bar to irrationality.". Every culture that removes religion or has its religion forcibly removed from them achieves the same result in the end.

            So you're both correct, the Moon is a Harsh Mistress is internally an almost parody-level unrealistic portrayal of an atheistic society, and at the same time, on the earth, all successful cultures have been at least somewhat religious so they don't have those problems as bad as the atheistic cultures.

            • (Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 17 2024, @04:01AM

              by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 17 2024, @04:01AM (#1377326)
              A monopoly on the use of deadly force is really all there is to it. Religion and other social structures like democracy are only there to provide legitimacy to this monopoly on deadly force, and stabilise this hold on power. Religion is one way, but not the only way. A monarchy has it that the monarch is blessed by God and that should prevent an ambitious general from just overthrowing the monarch and making themselves ruler in their place. Democracy would have it that the ruling government represents the will of the people since they were elected fairly, and so anyone attempting to seize power by force would be defying the will of the people. Without mechanisms like these, anyone who can convince enough of those people who can use deadly force can just seize power for themselves and one's hold on power will be highly precarious.
            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 17 2024, @07:32PM

              by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 17 2024, @07:32PM (#1377460)

              Religion may have started with good intentions, but it too gets fouled up with human vices - not least, just sheer amount of bullshit. There's nothing special about one type of clown in expensive kit waving a book and putting themselves in charge, ahh excuse me, religious group, over another.

            • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday October 17 2024, @09:46PM

              by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday October 17 2024, @09:46PM (#1377490) Journal
              As the AC noted, there's nothing special about religion. And it needs continual reinvention because it veers off-purpose easily.
          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 17 2024, @03:30AM (7 children)

            by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 17 2024, @03:30AM (#1377323)
            Because any such groups of people would either destroy themselves very quickly or else assemble some kind of proper workable society somehow and stop being in Lord of the Flies mode, building "a common Power to keep them all in awe" as Thomas Hobbes puts it in Leviathan. The main problem with The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress is that it presents this utterly naïve conception that people will organise themselves into a proper social order based on rational self-interest alone. Human nature being the way it is, such a thing is hilariously preposterous. The society would have been much more believable if there were a charismatic leader directing everything imposing societal norms by force, or even if Mycroft itself had taken on such a role with armies of robot minions, but that puts paid to the libertarian notions that Heinlein apparently wanted to advocate.
            • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday October 17 2024, @04:06AM (6 children)

              by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday October 17 2024, @04:06AM (#1377328) Journal

              The main problem with The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress is that it presents this utterly naïve conception that people will organise themselves into a proper social order based on rational self-interest alone.

              Does it? Your argument seems to rely heavily on this assertion. I'll note that we have plenty of examples of societies that self-organize on principles that we might not consider proper or rational self-interest, but don't require charismatic leaders - prisons. That happens to be the very situation of the book.

              • (Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 17 2024, @04:19AM (5 children)

                by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 17 2024, @04:19AM (#1377330)
                It's hard to describe a prison as a self-organised society. Real prisons have wardens and guards who impose order from without using a practical monopoly on the exercise of deadly force, and charismatic leaders form cliques around themselves that sometimes mitigate the otherwise unruly chaos outside the sight of the guards.
                • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday October 17 2024, @06:19AM (4 children)

                  by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday October 17 2024, @06:19AM (#1377337) Journal

                  It's hard to describe a prison as a self-organised society. Real prisons have wardens and guards who impose order from without using a practical monopoly on the exercise of deadly force, and charismatic leaders form cliques around themselves that sometimes mitigate the otherwise unruly chaos outside the sight of the guards.

                  "outside the sight of the guards" == opportunity for self-organization. "charismatic leaders form cliques around themselves" == self-organization.

                  • (Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 17 2024, @06:29AM (3 children)

                    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 17 2024, @06:29AM (#1377338)
                    Cliques around charismatic leaders are not based entirely on rational self-interest though, and these leaders are famously arbitrary and exercise their power in decidedly non-rational ways. The point being made is not that self-organisation is not possible, but that it is not so much rational self-interest that guides this self-organisation, and neither are the structures formed in this way destined to behave rationally. Furthermore, these structures are by their very nature maximally coercive. So much for your non-coercive, libertarian society. Heinlein would have made a more realistic portrayal of the moon as being led by gangs of this kind.
                    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday October 17 2024, @06:00PM (2 children)

                      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday October 17 2024, @06:00PM (#1377431) Journal

                      Cliques around charismatic leaders are not based entirely on rational self-interest though

                      "Entirely".

                      and these leaders are famously arbitrary and exercise their power in decidedly non-rational ways

                      Appearance of non-rational != non-rational.

                      The point being made is not that self-organisation is not possible, but that it is not so much rational self-interest that guides this self-organisation, and neither are the structures formed in this way destined to behave rationally.

                      I disagree. While researching this, I found an interesting thing. In that book, we have two examples of societies that weren't moving towards self-organization based on rational self-interest: Earth society and the future free lunar society (the cribbed version I read had a couple of the protagonists with later careers as politicians who eventually "quit in disgust". So I think it's worth thinking about why that happens.

                      My take is that Heinlein's idea was that in a small space colony everyone has shared destiny and veto power. That enforces both the rational thinking and a considerable bit of individual freedom. You want to survive, you have to take into consideration everyone else and make sure nobody gets unhappy enough with things that they're opening airlocks. When you don't have these survival pressures enforcing such, then the vagaries of modern, terrestrial civilization take hold: selfish interests, arbitrary infliction of harm on others, bureaucracy, pursuit of dysfunctional systems and ideals, etc.

                      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 17 2024, @07:58PM (1 child)

                        by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 17 2024, @07:58PM (#1377469)

                        I think some people have a fuck you, I got mine attitude regardless of this alleged "enforced rational thinking". Some douchbag will believe with all his heart that the world (religious worldview) is zero sum and fuck you, he gets his. Then somebody else will quite rationally open the airlock and say, yeah, fuck this.

                        • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday October 17 2024, @08:53PM

                          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday October 17 2024, @08:53PM (#1377478) Journal

                          I think some people have a fuck you, I got mine attitude regardless of this alleged "enforced rational thinking". Some douchbag will believe with all his heart that the world (religious worldview) is zero sum and fuck you, he gets his. Then somebody else will quite rationally open the airlock and say, yeah, fuck this.

                          Cool story, but why would it happen that way? If you have douchbag that bad, then douchbag dies. There's plenty of stories of mutinies and such. They don't chop holes in the boat, they just kill the problem, leave it on a deserted island, or stuff it in a closet if they're feeling generous.

                          And there's nothing "quite rationally" about killing everyone on board.

        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 20 2024, @12:15AM

          by Anonymous Coward on Sunday October 20 2024, @12:15AM (#1377746)

          Indeed. I remember reading Heinlein's The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress, which was basically his imagining a libertarian / anarcho-capitalist society out of a prison colony on the moon. The entire thing was laughable in how unrealistically rational he made all the inhabitants of the moon behave.

          Heinlein's answer to the lack of rationality of most people, was to have the environment on Luna kill them. Pretty sure there are a couple of mentions in the book of the horrendous death toll, especially in the early days. There was a reason he used the word "harsh".

    • (Score: 2) by VLM on Wednesday October 16 2024, @08:17PM

      by VLM (445) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday October 16 2024, @08:17PM (#1377280)

      Early Stross books were good, very good, but he got derangement syndrome and people like that just aren't pleasant to interact with so I no longer read his books and I'm not surprised he suffers badly from Musk Derangement Syndrome now. Sad. His older laundry series books were pretty cool, but he's unreadable now, just endlessly triggered "reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee" about everything.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 16 2024, @10:56PM (3 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday October 16 2024, @10:56PM (#1377307)

      When moderators will delete your comments for saying "Elon Musk", that indicates that there's considerable bias in the room. It also shows in Stross's attempts to discount every model he comes up with:

      You're an ignorant prick [lindsays.co.uk].

      • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday October 17 2024, @03:01AM (2 children)

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday October 17 2024, @03:01AM (#1377320) Journal
        Is the linked law supposed to be relevant somehow? I read the link and well, I wasted my time. Your time was wasted as well, but that's not my problem. For a glaring example:

        Under the new Act, defamation proceedings cannot be brought against anyone other than the author, editor or publisher of the statement or the employee of such a person who is responsible for the statement’s content and/ or the decision to publish it.

        So a 2024 blog by Stross can't be sued for the mean things that Musky fans might say in the comments.

        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 17 2024, @07:20PM (1 child)

          by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 17 2024, @07:20PM (#1377455)

          I read the link and well, I wasted my time.

          I read your pile of drivel and wasted my time too. So now we're even.

          • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday October 17 2024, @09:43PM

            by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday October 17 2024, @09:43PM (#1377488) Journal

            I read the link and well, I wasted my time.

            I read your pile of drivel and wasted my time too. So now we're even.

            Obviously you didn't. Because otherwise you'd have posted something other than a dumb quip.

            Again, the law that you linked shows that Stross is not at risk of a defamation lawsuit. That's the reality here.

            And if Stross were genuinely concerned about such, he wouldn't be encouraging his commenters to come up with insulting nicknames for Musk. He merely virtue signals while creating a minor echo chamber in the process. That's all. This weird behavior is completely irrelevant to merely discussing the organization of groups that could successfully attempt colonization in space.

  • (Score: 4, Interesting) by aim on Wednesday October 16 2024, @03:46PM (10 children)

    by aim (6322) on Wednesday October 16 2024, @03:46PM (#1377250)

    While some seem to have the hots for this Stross fellow, I've put myself through one of his books and have been so little impressed that I won't ever get anything else by this author.

    If you want to get a solid read on space colonization, why not start with non-scifi "The High Frontier" by Gerard O'Neill, first released in 1976? IMHO there's a lot in there that still might come to fruition, even if a lot has happened in the meantime that can improve on those plans.

    • (Score: 2) by HiThere on Wednesday October 16 2024, @04:32PM (8 children)

      by HiThere (866) on Wednesday October 16 2024, @04:32PM (#1377253) Journal

      There's two groups of people, and they're both right.

      Group 1 is the visionaries, who see the promise of the future in space, and envision ways to solve the problems.
      Group 2 is the folks who see the problems ahead, and realize that they can't see how to solve them.

      Both groups are right. There definitely are problems that we don't know how to solve. A lot of people will probably end up dead if we start seriously trying. But it's worthwhile anyway.

      --
      Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
      • (Score: 2, Insightful) by khallow on Wednesday October 16 2024, @05:52PM (4 children)

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday October 16 2024, @05:52PM (#1377256) Journal

        Group 2 is the folks who see the problems ahead, and realize that they can't see how to solve them.

        Group 2 is just not that useful though. A lot of people can think of problems they can't easily solve. Here, it's not even that. Stross goes through a bunch of historical approaches to colonization (rather to colonization governance) and just criticizes them outright. What is missed is that each of them worked to some degree - some amazingly well. The Polynesian model, for example, is thought to have been in use from 2200 BC when the Philippines would have first been settled to 1000-1200 AD when Easter Island was settled. That's over 3000 years of successful colonization. Yet all Stross can talk about is that it has multiple failure modes:

        In a nutshell, the Polynesian model suffers from a combination of the failure modes of the homesteader model and (pick any combination of) all the others—the Religious retreat, the company town, the military expedition: living off the land is really hard when there's not actually any land, nor a supply chain able to manufacture spacecraft, nor a biosphere to overrun.

        My take is that group 1 can find real problems and solve them. Group 2 just isn't that useful especially when they're just inventing problems.

        • (Score: 2) by Thexalon on Thursday October 17 2024, @03:19AM (3 children)

          by Thexalon (636) on Thursday October 17 2024, @03:19AM (#1377321)

          The major differences between space and Polynesia has to do with what is readily available when you show up somewhere:
          1. Breathable air isn't the slightest bit of a problem in Polynesia. It's a major problem in space and any big rock not named "Earth" that we have a chance of getting to anytime soon.
          2. Staying warm enough isn't a major problem in Polynesia: The Pacific Islands are mostly tropical, plus generally have abundant vegetation that can be used for firewood. Space doesn't have firewood, and is extremely cold (e.g. Mars is about -65C, making Antarctica look like paradise by comparison).
          3. Fresh water is a solvable problem, from coconut milk to streams and the like. Plus any tools you develop to catch rainwater when it rains, which is frequently. Space mostly doesn't have fresh water about, and while you can recycle urine and such it's still something you have to concern yourself with and the system can break for all kinds of reasons.
          4. Food is a very solvable problem in Polynesia - it grows wild on trees, plus is swimming in the sea, plus it can be cultivated, plus it can be hunted on land. There's basically no food natively available in space.
          5. Building and crafting materials are plentiful and varied in Polynesia, suitable for making homes, tools, weapons, boats, etc. Building materials in space either consists of rocks, or nothing.
          6. If you need to bail on a location, in Polynesia you can probably get to another island in a few days by boat if you can navigate well. Whereas once you're out of LEO, you're a long way from safety if you need to call it quits.

          Space exploration is going to have a high body count. You're right that we might still be better off doing it, but it's also true that we have a very very long way to go in solving the engineering problems involved. We can't even get off the planet with a very high likelihood the ship wasn't damaged in the process.

          --
          "Think of how stupid the average person is. Then realize half of 'em are stupider than that." - George Carlin
          • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday October 17 2024, @04:12AM (2 children)

            by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday October 17 2024, @04:12AM (#1377329) Journal
            In other words, we would need better technology. Your argument suffers from the same problems as Stross's. It conflates political organization with technology. Every single bullet point you list is a technical problem not a political problem. If we drop primitive Polynesians with an outrigger boat on an asteroid or Mars, they would be dead in seconds. The space-capable, advanced Polynesians who would be doing the colonizing will have those problems sorted out. So would the members of any group trying any of the other schemes mentioned in Stross's blog article. That's the starting point.
            • (Score: 2) by Thexalon on Thursday October 17 2024, @11:41AM (1 child)

              by Thexalon (636) on Thursday October 17 2024, @11:41AM (#1377358)

              Yes, they are engineering problems. And each one, except the distance, is solvable on its own.

              The problem is the margin for error is much smaller. If you take all these problems, and imagine a well-engineered solution to them somehow crammed onto a ship and lifted into space along with your intrepid colonists, so far so good, right?

              Now hit those well-engineered solutions with a few rocks so they don't work, which is a real risk in space. And your available materials to rig a solution to the problems you just got handed are more rocks if you're lucky, and the other parts of your ship. You have about 20 hours before you run out of breathable air, and you will get progressively stupider and less able to do things as that time passes. "Well, carry a spare." Fine, but that's doubled the cost of launching your craft, and the moment this problem repeats itself your spare is gone too.

              Contrast that with being in the middle of the Pacific: You won't run out of breathable air, you can catch water if it rains, you can fish for food, and if you can make it to an island you are likely to be able to find materials that will be useful in fixing your boat. And there's also a very distinct possibility you'll find other people who might be willing and able to help you out, too. It's an environment where you have a lot more flexibility and ability to adapt to trouble.

              Terrestrial colonization worked because there was stuff humans needed and could use where they were going. Space colonization for the most part does not have that.

              --
              "Think of how stupid the average person is. Then realize half of 'em are stupider than that." - George Carlin
              • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday October 17 2024, @04:11PM

                by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday October 17 2024, @04:11PM (#1377401) Journal
                In other words, it's still a tech problem not a organizational/governance problem. And yes, "carry a spare" is what works here.

                Terrestrial colonization worked because there was stuff humans needed and could use where they were going. Space colonization for the most part does not have that.

                That still will be the case in space - the stuff humans need will be at those destinations. It's just a harder problem. That's all.

      • (Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 17 2024, @07:51AM (2 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Thursday October 17 2024, @07:51AM (#1377343)

        I'm in a different group I see that the most likely way for humans to have a longer future is via space. The Earth will eventually become more inhospitable than space colonies ( https://www.astronomy.com/science/earth-future-how-the-world-might-end-eventually/ [astronomy.com] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_of_Earth [wikipedia.org] ).

        However, I consider it a colossal waste of money, time and resources to have projects to send humans to gravity wells like Mars.

        They should be spending more on space colony/habitat related projects. Leave the Mars stuff for later.

        The easily usable resources and time left on Earth are not infinite, if we waste too much on Mars we might not have enough to develop sustainable space colony tech.

        • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday October 17 2024, @06:03PM (1 child)

          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday October 17 2024, @06:03PM (#1377434) Journal

          However, I consider it a colossal waste of money, time and resources to have projects to send humans to gravity wells like Mars.

          Gravity wells have things like ground, free gravity (less need to rotate things), and aerobraking.

          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 18 2024, @02:31AM

            by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 18 2024, @02:31AM (#1377520)
            The scientific experiments haven't been done to prove that the gravity on Mars is good enough for humans and our preferred animals etc. If it turns out to not be enough it's harder to get the "correct gravity" in a gravity well.

            Whereas you're going to need the artificial gravity tech anyway for future space colonies, so might as well start on it now while fossil fuels etc are still relatively cheap and available.

            You're also going to need to do the science on "how much gravity is good enough for humans/chickens/fish/etc)".

            Doing "humans on Mars" first is wasting resources doing the wrong thing first.

            The advantage of doing Mars first is it gets the stupid and ignorant masses more excited.
    • (Score: 3, Insightful) by VLM on Wednesday October 16 2024, @08:59PM

      by VLM (445) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday October 16 2024, @08:59PM (#1377284)

      I've put myself through one of his books and have been so little impressed that I won't ever get anything else by this author.

      What was the copyright date?

      His old books were awesome, consider "The Atrocity Archives" which was around Y2K and its an amazing setting and world building, despite comic book level bad guys and not much of a story (it's a quick read)

      Sometime before "The Annihiliation Score" or "The Delirium Brief" subjectively my opinion is he started hanging out with the wrong crowd, the type where authoritarianism and groupthink prevails and moral supremacy is determined by who gets triggered and reeeeeeeee's the most ridiculously intensely, and boy oh boy does that guy reeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee intensely. Imagine how unpleasant it would be to watch the cast of a really stereotypical unwatchable daytime news-talk show on MSNBC trying to play Pathfinder RPG while maxing out their snark and sneer, then put that to paper and that's how I feel about his later era of books. "The Labyrinth Index" for example was essentially unreadable.

      ALL of the pre-2010 novellas and short stories were awesome. "Down on the farm" was amazing. "Overtime" was at least pretty funny to anyone who ever worked in IT and carried a pager over a holiday.

      I'd like to enjoy "Escape from Yokai Land" but the copyright date is 2022 so I'm probably going to hate it because of Stross's ... outlook on life in the current year; I'd be mildly intrigued if any Soylentils have a book report on that. A new "Bob Howard" story? Oh yes yes yes. But written by 2020's Stross? Oh no no no.

      The funny thing about "The Fuller Memorandum" is I actually enjoy J.F.C. Fuller's real world books, hilariously enough. Fuller is absolutely fascinating to read if you like 20th century setting combined arms strategy games, either cardboard or played on computer ("Steel Panthers" game series and all that). In the UK they have this "thing", right, where biographies are actually written (or at least ghost written) by interesting people and they discuss interesting topics unlike USA biographies that pretty much peaked with "Paris Hilton's Simple Life" TV series, Churchill's books in contrast are actually pretty interesting. Yeah, that Churchill, the politician, super interesting. Now Stross and his fictional setting was inevitably attracted to JFC Fuller because Fuller had some ... unusual philosophical-religious-political views aside from his fascinating military career. For USA peeps everyone seems to "know" the mythology of General Mitchell being the "Father of the US Air Force" or whatever, and its not entirely incorrect that JFC could be considered "The father of combined arms military strategy in the UK" or perhaps "The father of mechanized warfare in the UK". JFC is a super interesting dude and it was hilarious to see him mixed up in a Stross book.

      Maybe if you or other soylentils have ever read John Ringo's books, can relate to the "mixed bag" concept, where some parts are really good which might make it easier to ignore the not-so-good parts? I still think the "Legacy of the Aldenata" needs a movie/miniseries, although it would have to be created by competent people which means no Hollywood, obviously.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 18 2024, @07:40AM

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 18 2024, @07:40AM (#1377548)

    From TFA:

    I have no idea how Star Trek has evolved since I last watched it (I hit my throw-book-at-wall point halfway through the pilot episode of TNG and refuse to give it a second chance) but ST at least superficially started out from the military model, in a universe with copious adversaries so no shortage of possible military missions.

    If he doesn't like Star Trek, he's entitled to his own opinion. The first season of TNG was mostly bad, and the second season wasn't great despite some big improvements and bright spots like Q Who. I understand not liking Encounter At Farpoint, which wasn't an especially interesting story while portraying humanity as supremely arrogant [youtube.com]. But the validity of these criticisms doesn't justify getting the facts wrong.

    Even TOS established that there were different types of colonies, and they weren't all based around Starfleet, which was designed to have some characteristics of a navy. For example, This Side of Paradise [chakoteya.net] is about an agricultural colony, and there's a for-profit mining colony that serves as the setting for The Devil in the Dark [chakoteya.net]. Dagger of the Mind [chakoteya.net] takes place at a penal colony. Or there's Deneva, a colony in Operation: Annihilate [chakoteya.net], which has over a million inhabitants across several cities. It was originally established as a mining outpost but grew into several settlements that appear to have large civilian populations. Although Starfleet is a quasi-naval organization with both enlisted personnel and commissioned officers, the Federation is a civilian government that spans hundreds of worlds and was intended in TOS as an allegory for the United States. One need not watch TNG or anything afterwards to know that Star Trek is stories told from the perspective of commissioned officers in a uniformed service, there are a large number of colonies with very diverse organizations and for very diverse purposes.

    As someone who has seen nearly all of the 700+ episodes between TOS and Enterprise, this is completely inaccurate. If anything, Star Trek supports the idea that many space colonization models work quite well, whether they begin as for-profit operations, terraforming outposts, or just people trying to leave Earth for a simpler and less technological life on their own planet. There are different governance models. Some colonies use money while others do not. Even just the stories I cited from the first season of TOS demonstrate that the show didn't suggest that a military-like model was necessary.

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