Arthur T Knackerbracket has processed the following story:
Climate experts have long believed that a volcanic supereruption—a mind-bendingly powerful explosion capable of altering Earth’s atmosphere—could wipe out a significant portion of life. But a new survey of geological records suggests the aftermath wouldn’t be quite as apocalyptic. It would still be bad—just not end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it bad.
This refreshing burst of optimism comes courtesy of a group of University of St. Andrews environmental scientists who were examining ice cores pulled from Greenland and Antarctica, as well as sediment cores from near the equator in the Pacific.
The cores contained tiny specks of ash, embedded in layers connected to the time period of the Los Chocoyos supereruption, which occurred in what is now known as Guatemala’s Atitlán caldera. While the Smithsonian’s Global Volcanism Project dates the eruption to 84,000 years ago, St. Andrews geologists claim to have more accurately dated the ash to 79,500 years ago.
Just for a frame of reference, the most powerful eruption in recent memory occurred on June 12, 1991, when the Philippines’ Mount Pinatubo finally blew, after months of earthquakes and magma slowly seeping to the top. The resulting ash cloud was 22 miles (35 kilometers) high, and 20 million tons of sulfur was emitted into the atmosphere, leading to a 1 degree F (0.5 C) drop in global temperatures from 1991 to 1993, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. So much rock and magma was ejected that the mountain’s shape was irrevocably altered, leaving behind a depression called a caldera that was 1.6 miles (2.5 kilometers) across. Because the signs of eruption were caught early, thousands of people were able to leave the area beforehand and commercial air travel steered clear. Even so, the force was so huge, $100 million of damage was caused to jets flying hundreds of kilometers away.
That eruption measured only a 6 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index. Los Chocoyos comes in at an 8, the lowest score required to register as a supereruption, which would still make it 100 times more powerful than Pinatubo.
As for what effects Los Chocoyos had, the environmental scientists reported in Communications Earth and Environment that the cores do indicate a cooling effect that lasted between 10 and 20 years, a far cry from a worst case scenario of plummeting temperatures that lasted for 1,000 years or more. That likely led to an increase in the amount of sea ice, but things likely returned to normal after 30 years or so.
While the eruption predates human writing, or even speech, modern humans were roaming around at that time. Given that we’re still here, it appears Homo sapiens, and many other species, are capable of surviving these types of cataclysmic events. Fortunately, we likely won’t have to find out for ourselves, as supereruptions are rare. The last known one occurred 25,500 years ago in New Zealand, an event known as the Oruanui eruption.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 07, @08:24PM
So I guess it's safe to burn a little more oil then!
(Score: 5, Interesting) by JoeMerchant on Friday March 07, @09:07PM (8 children)
How many degrees of cooling? Surely that depends on how big the eruption is.
By definition, the Volcanic Explosivity Index only goes to 8, indicating 1,000 cubic kilometers of material, or more, ejected. But, how high? How is the material chunked? Is it big slabs of granite, or fine powders of ash and sulfur dioxide lofted into the stratosphere?
How big will Yellowstone go next time? Some estimates call for "A 10-foot layer of ash could cover 1,000 miles from the park" Just calling that a 3 meter thick circle with a radius of 1600km, that's pi*1600*1600*0.003 = 24115 cubic kilometers of ash, sounds good enough for a 9 rating (necessitating extension of the current VEI scale) right there on the ash alone.
If Yellowstone has been "holding it in" since it's last eruption 631,000 years ago, it's possible this next one could "take it to 11", how many degrees of cooling for how many years would a million cubic kilometers of ash ejected into the stratosphere cause?
Note: The volume of the Earth is approximately 1.083 x 10^12, so an "11" supervolcano would be ejecting more than 1 one millionth of the Earth's total volume, crust to core. The Earth's crust, both oceanic and continental, has a volume of approximately 1.8 x 10^10 cubic kilometers, about 1/500th of the total volume, so that 11 volcano would be ejecting 1/20,000th of the crust, which is a pretty hefty chunk. Seems unlikely, but you never really know until you know, ya know? Duuuude. [youtu.be]
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 3, Touché) by mhajicek on Friday March 07, @11:53PM (7 children)
So how many years of canned corned beef hash do I need in my bunker?
The spacelike surfaces of time foliations can have a cusp at the surface of discontinuity. - P. Hajicek
(Score: 3, Touché) by JoeMerchant on Friday March 07, @11:58PM (6 children)
Where is this bunker? In North America, you probably just want a pistol.
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 4, Interesting) by mhajicek on Saturday March 08, @12:02AM (3 children)
Scarily enough, there are people whose disaster plan is to take what others have, by force. I don't expect them to last very long.
The spacelike surfaces of time foliations can have a cusp at the surface of discontinuity. - P. Hajicek
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Saturday March 08, @12:27AM (2 children)
The pistol is to facilitate the decision to give up quickly instead of dying slowly of thirst, or worse starvation on an endless deeply ash covered landscape.
If living Mad Max is your fantasy, have at it, but it won't be anything like an entertaining movie.
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2) by mhajicek on Saturday March 08, @12:49AM (1 child)
I'm not one to give up quickly.
The spacelike surfaces of time foliations can have a cusp at the surface of discontinuity. - P. Hajicek
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Saturday March 08, @01:23AM
If the competition is abundant nature, or other people, sure.
If you have slogged for 30 days in chest deep ash, only finding puddles of nasty water in charred tree stumps after infrequent rains, do you really want to experience end stage organ failure? Starting with failed skin?
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2) by Mojibake Tengu on Saturday March 08, @04:40PM (1 child)
Eventually, you will run out of ammo, no matter the gun gauge.
Me, I collect swords.
Rust programming language offends both my Intelligence and my Spirit.
(Score: 3, Touché) by JoeMerchant on Saturday March 08, @06:48PM
Facing a landscape with no decent water to drink for hundreds of miles, I think you only need one bullet per survivor for the pistol.
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 08, @05:13AM (3 children)
If they are so worried about it, why not drill a hole into it and let off some pressure. You could probably use the hot gas/liquid for a pretty kick-ass power station.
(Score: 2, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 08, @12:19PM (2 children)
> ... why not drill a hole into it...
First counter argument -- the hole could initiate a crack, speeding up the eruption.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by JoeMerchant on Saturday March 08, @02:29PM (1 child)
I think the sense of scale is lacking... 10,000 CUBIC KILOMETERS of ejecta doesn't care about "a hole" - there are holes all over the place right now, they won't be releasing the pressure fast enough when it comes.
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 09, @12:14PM
https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-we-drill-yellowstone-stop-it-erupting [usgs.gov]
Well, they say no, but one of the main reasons is it is in a national park and they are not allowed because it would stop the hot springs and geysers working.