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upstart writes in with an IRC submission for c0lo:

Climate Scientists Debunk 'Point of No Return' Paper Everyone's Freaking Out About:

On Thursday, a new study came out warning that even if we stopped emitting carbon dioxide, the world has reached the "point of no return" for climate change. The paper claims that's because Arctic permafrost — carbon-rich, permanently frozen earth made of rocks, water, and dead wildlife — is melting irreversibly, and it could continue to heat the planet for centuries by releasing carbon dioxide. Terrifying, right?

The only solution, the authors indicate, is to suck carbon out of the air with carbon capture, which is yet unproven to work at scale, or to employ even more dangerous geoengineering technologies. The study's results and conclusions have been covered widely and a bit breathlessly, but here's the thing: The analysis has some big problems.

"To be frank, the paper is crap that should not have passed any competent peer review," Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and energy systems analyst, said. "It's an interesting thought experiment, but its results should be taken with extreme scepticism until more complex Earth System Models produce similar results."

Referenced Report:
Jorgen Randers, Ulrich Goluke. An earth system model shows self-sustained melting of permafrost even if all man-made GHG emissions stop in 2020 [open], Scientific Reports (DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-75481-z)

Original Submission