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Bob Lutz, car-guy-to-the-max, former VP of GM and Chrysler, with time at BMW before that, wrote this recent article --
http://www.roadandtrack.com/car-culture/a26859/bob-lutz-tesla/
The opening paragraph is gloomy:
Tesla's showing all the signs of a company in trouble: bleeding cash, securitized assets, and mounting inventory. It's the trifecta of doom for any automaker, and anyone paying attention probably saw this coming a mile away. Like most big puzzles, the company's woes don't have just one source.
and the prognosis goes downhill from there mentioning competition from Audi, the lack of enough dealers to attract more buyers and other problems.
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-- William Shakespeare, "Henry VI"
(Score: 5, Insightful) by TrumpetPower! on Friday October 30 2015, @03:42PM
...Tesla has an insanely long waiting list of people spending absurd amounts of money on their cars, and the factory is working overtime just to keep close to meeting demand. They're the most talked-about car company, the one with all the exiting new features like an autopilot and zero-footprint gullwing doors. And you have to spend twice as much on a car to get one that even comes close to the 0-60 MPH times of a Tesla -- but the car is literally the safest ever manufactured.
Coming from Lutz...his bitching is pretty much a ringing endorsement for Tesla. They're clearly defining the future of the automotive industry, and Putz and his multiple spectacular business failures are the past....
b&
All but God can prove this sentence true.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 30 2015, @03:49PM
"Insanely long" relative maybe to the sales of other EVs. But the amount of reservations they have is a fraction of 1% of the total sales of any other successful car model.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 30 2015, @04:09PM
This kinda reminds me of iphone. It wasn't something to be taken as a serious competition. At least according to the official competitor propaganda..
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 30 2015, @04:21PM
Except that the iPhone outsold its contemporaries when it was first released.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 02 2015, @09:19AM
That was a single device carrying the weight of the whole platform - it doesn't need much sales to show up as a peak in the graph against manufacturers who put out a dozen devices each month. Especially if you restrict the data to its best-selling market.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by mth on Friday October 30 2015, @04:16PM
If there is any waiting list at all, that contradicts the "mounting inventory" statement from the article.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 30 2015, @04:23PM
Not really. They have a waiting list for models not yet released which doesn't then mean they can't have a backlog of inventory for models they are currently making.
(Score: 2) by Lunix Nutcase on Friday October 30 2015, @04:25PM
Not really. If I'm in the waiting list for a Model X how would that preclude having mounting inventory of Model 2s?
(Score: 2) by Lunix Nutcase on Friday October 30 2015, @04:42PM
Obviously that should be Model *S*
(Score: 2) by captain normal on Friday October 30 2015, @07:30PM
Tesla carries no inventory. All cars are ordered online, then built to order.
The Musk/Trump interview appears to have been hacked, but not a DDOS hack...more like A Distributed Denial of Reality.
(Score: 2) by Lunix Nutcase on Friday October 30 2015, @08:51PM
Not true. They sell cars from inventory both new and pre-owned.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 30 2015, @04:43PM
How so? How would being in line for a Model X have any effect on the inventory backlog of the Model S?
(Score: 2) by mmcmonster on Friday October 30 2015, @08:52PM
I'm curious about the mounting inventory issue.
From what I understand, it's still 1-2 months for a Model S delivery, suggesting they have no inventory on them either.
You certainly are getting a custom build when you order the Model S, not looking at their inventory and picking something that is close to matching what you want in options.
Where is this mounting inventory?
(Score: 2) by Lunix Nutcase on Friday October 30 2015, @08:58PM
You can buy inventory cars. You can even find posts about people talking about it.
(Score: 2) by captain normal on Friday October 30 2015, @07:28PM
Yeah...and just how many Dodge Vipers have you seen on the streets?
The Musk/Trump interview appears to have been hacked, but not a DDOS hack...more like A Distributed Denial of Reality.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Hyperturtle on Friday October 30 2015, @04:19PM
Yes, it sounds like listening to the Heartland Institute complain that a solar plant using 5% natural gas for energy use during non-peak periods to smooth the load is a terrible carbon polluter so stop all solar and use oil and coal, proven technologies with thorough research on helping you and your family of four vote against government corruption and invest the fossil fuel industry.
Any competitor to established norms are corrupt and Evil.
(Score: 5, Informative) by daaelar on Friday October 30 2015, @04:37PM
I'll bite. I don't necessarily agree with Mr. Lutz, but I'm not a fan of the Model S. My wife and I went to test drive one, fully intending to buy the dual-motor variant. The sales agent took one look at me (30-year-old engineer in jeans and t-shirt) and rolled her eyes. She didn't have answers to any of my questions and never followed up with any. After driving the car, I left the "dealership" quite unhappy. They've made some outright terrible design decisions. That 17-inch touchscreen cannot be turned off. It's a huge distraction while driving. The rear windshield is so tiny as to be near-useless. Their suggestion, when I mentioned this, was to leave the rear-view camera open on the touchscreen. I guess they don't understand that said camera is fixed-perspective? Or that I don't want a light-emitting screen blinding me at night? They also have an over-aggressive regenerative system. I currently drive a Prius, so I'm used to regenerative systems. The Tesla model, however, is so severe they call it "one-pedal driving" in that it actually turns your brake lights on when you release the throttle. That seems quite dangerous, and also counter-intuitive to preserving power if I want to coast. These decisions are fundamental to the company, as they're still present in the Model X. I'm really hoping Audi and BMW can one-up them. I don't care about the 0-60 times or automatic driving or "ludicrous mode". I don't really even want my car linked to a smartphone app. I wanted a nice, fully electric AWD vehicle and was willing to pay for it. However, it seems they just aren't there yet.
(Score: 4, Interesting) by Marco2G on Friday October 30 2015, @07:34PM
Well, while your eyperience certainly is valid, don't you think that lynching a whole company with the failings of one sales rep is a tad overzealous?
I went there, just like you, in regular clothes. I had an extremely nice chat with the sales rep during the drive and when his next appointment fell flat, he stood there and chatted with me for over an hour and told me about pros and cons (!) of Tesla Model S cars. At no point did he ever let on that he thought about this as wasted time even after I made clear that I would probably not be able to own a Model S due to financial reasons.
The aspects of the car you mentioned are completely a matter of getting used to it and taste. The rearview camera combined with the side mirrors leaves next to no blind spot on the car.
Yes, there are certain design 'issues' and some of them seem to have to do with the Steve Jobs mentality of Musk: If it doesn't fit into his philosophy, it doesn't go into the car no matter the demand.
Still, even after driving it the Tesla is the first car I actually yearn for. I'm sorry that your mileage varied, but come on... it's to be expected that a product can't be perfect for everybody.
(Score: 1) by daaelar on Saturday October 31 2015, @12:50PM
Oh, I'm not out to lynch a whole company on one sales rep. As I stated, I don't agree with Mr. Lutz that the company is doomed. I was simply offering a counterpoint to the parent post. There can be both good and bad people at the same company and that doesn't mean the whole company is rotten. However, your point about the "Steve Jobs Menatality" is what really puts me off. The design of the S went further with the X. I really wish the S didn't have those issues because I dearly want to buy one. The drivetrain and the charging system are phenomenal. I just wish the cabin design was less "look at me!" and a little more conventional. Who knows, maybe the Model 3 is something I'll like, though I secretly want an updated Roadster to come out with the old interior and the new drivetrain.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 30 2015, @09:21PM
California and ten other states are requiring automakers to sell "zero emission vehicles" such as electric cars. As the parent post implies, BMW has been selling an electric car, the i3. The entry of Audi to the luxury market, when Tesla is planning its offer a model for the masses, may not prove fatal for Tesla.
references:
http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/zevprog/zevregs/1962.1_Clean.pdf [ca.gov]
http://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/california-and-western-states/californias-zero-emission-program.html [ucsusa.org]
http://www.bmwusa.com/bmw/BMWi [bmwusa.com]
(Score: 1) by daaelar on Saturday October 31 2015, @12:54PM
I really wish some of these automakers would start selling outside of California. I live in NJ and there's plenty of folks here who would like to have full EVs. Two of my neighbors drive Volts and many others drive various Toyota/Lexus hybrids. Unfortunately, most of the full plug-in or even alternative fuel (looking at you, Honda Clarity) simply aren't available outside of California. I drive 10 miles round trip to work. I'm the perfect candidate for an EV, yet my only choices are the Tesla or a whole bunch of really tiny, really ugly concept-to-production vehicles. The i3 and the Leaf aren't exactly my cup of tea.
(Score: 2) by Nerdfest on Saturday October 31 2015, @02:17AM
Lighting the brake lights when you come off the accelerator is going to exacerbate traffic problems as well. I find that every time someone hits their brakes the person behind the does the same at about the same point but the reaction delay adds about a second to the duration. I'm pretty confident in my opinion that this is a major cause of the domino effect in heavy traffic on highways. They really should change that behaviour, at least as a default.
(Score: 2) by TheGratefulNet on Saturday October 31 2015, @04:28AM
that touch screen bullshit is a show-stopper for me, too. not that I can afford the car now, but if I could - I'd still think twice about that stupid laptop screen in the middle of the dash. great for the 'press on glass' generation but I'm a grey hair and pressing on glass without real buttons is totally unfulfilling for me.
I didn't know you could not turn it off. that would make me hate it even more!
I like a lot about the car. and I like how new the company is (not old school guys); but the lappie screen is really a usability nightmare. nothing there to let you feel your way like tactile buttons do. guis on screens are for lazy programmers who can't decide on a stable and fixed array of buttons, knobs and gauges.
"It is now safe to switch off your computer."
(Score: 3, Insightful) by ikanreed on Friday October 30 2015, @04:50PM
So you and lutz contradict on the facts.
He says "excess inventory."
You say "Customer waitlist"
One of those has to be factually wrong(or Tesla is incompetent in a basically absurd way).
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Friday October 30 2015, @04:57PM
"the factory is working overtime"
In manufacturing, "overtime" shouldn't be much of a consideration. Three shifts, with enough extra people to keep it running 7 days per week. It might be easier to accomplish with a 4th shift, but the plant needs to run 24/7 with little if any "downtime". Most individuals working in the plant should be averaging 42 to 45 hours per week, some essential personnel might average a little higher. If they are paying more overtime than that, then they aren't properly managing the manufacturing facility. If there is a _no_overtime_ policy, they aren't managing things correctly either. Overtime should be monitored, and more people recruited if the overtime begins to get excessive, but it really shouldn't be higher than about 10%, or below 2 or 3%. That is manufacturing.
“Take me to the Brig. I want to see the “real Marines”. – Major General Chesty Puller, USMC
(Score: 2) by DECbot on Friday October 30 2015, @10:42PM
Last I heard, it was two shifts, with production 6-days a week and with maintenance and engineering coming in on Sunday for line upgrades and such, and maybe an operator to do a run off. Your manager is supposed to ensure you have two days off each week, but the mentality out there is to come in on your days off to get stuff done.
cats~$ sudo chown -R us /home/base
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Friday October 30 2015, @11:32PM
The main reason I hate shutting the plant down, is things never start up smoothly. Two weeks ago, it was the air compressor, last month it was the cooling tower, also last month one of the machines lost it's memory. The robots sometimes spaz out. It's always something at startup time, large or small. First shift loses at least a half hour of production, they might lose half the shift if things don't settle down. To much humidity in the plastic is a very common problem. First shift maintenance comes in three hours early to turn the dryers on, and that is just not enough.
Ehhh - I can't tell them how to run the plant, but some of this stuff should be so obvious. It's better to staff the plant with a skeleton crew, producing the minimum, just to keep everything running, than to shut down and start up again.
“Take me to the Brig. I want to see the “real Marines”. – Major General Chesty Puller, USMC
(Score: 2) by DECbot on Saturday October 31 2015, @02:34AM
Compared to automotive, semiconductor startup after a fab slowdown is much worse. Years ago back when I was still in semiconductors, our customer idled their dram/nand flash plant for the month of December to clear some of their inventory and ideally save some cash. Since production was slow, none of the equipment had any of its PMs due (after XXX runs do pm yyy). So once production started ramping up again, every thing was failing for particles, requiring reactive maintenance for everything and it took about 3 months before the fab started running smoothly again. So much for saving money.
cats~$ sudo chown -R us /home/base