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In 1990, about 8 percent of the US population had no religious preference but by 2010, this percentage had more than doubled to 18 percent. That's a difference of about 25 million people, all of whom have somehow lost their religion. Now MIT Technology Review reports that Allen Downey, a computer scientist at the Olin College of Engineering in Massachusetts, has analyzed the data in detail and says that the dramatic drop in religious affiliation is the result of several factors but about 25 percent of the drop is due to the rise of the Internet. Downey concludes that the increase in Internet use in the last two decades has caused a significant drop in religious affiliation: for moderate use (2 or more hours per week) the odds ratio is 0.82. For heavier use (7 or more hours per week) the odds ratio is 0.58.
What Downey has found is a correlation and any statistician will tell you that correlations do not imply causation. But that does not mean that it is impossible to draw conclusions from correlations, only that they must be properly guarded. "Correlation does provide evidence in favor of causation, especially when we can eliminate alternative explanations or have reason to believe that they are less likely," says Downey. It's straightforward to imagine how spending time on the Internet can lead to religious disaffiliation. "For people living in homogeneous communities, the Internet provides opportunities to find information about people of other religions (and none), and to interact with them personally," says Downey. "Conversely, it is harder (but not impossible) to imagine plausible reasons why disaffiliation might cause increased Internet use."
There is another possibility: that a third unidentified factor causes both increased Internet use and religious disaffiliation. But Downey discounts this possibility. "We have controlled for most of the obvious candidates, including income, education, socioeconomic status, and rural/urban environments. (PDF)" If this third factor exists, it must have specific characteristics. It would have to be something new that was increasing in prevalence during the 1990s and 2000s, just like the Internet. "It is hard to imagine what that factor might be."
(Score: 4, Interesting) by evilviper on Thursday April 10 2014, @04:02PM
This is utter nonsense...
http://bama.ua.edu/~sprentic/101%20Psych%20&%20Lif e--Correlation-causation.htm [ua.edu]
The US was the holdout in the 1st world, for declining belief in God. The same trends happened many decades earlier in western Europe, LONG before the internet.
Also, it's important to note that there's a counter trend as well:
http://staugustine.com/stories/073004/rel_2472953. shtml [staugustine.com]
Hydrogen cyanide is a delicious and necessary part of the human diet.
(Score: 2) by Nerdfest on Thursday April 10 2014, @04:05PM
The internet is generally used to spread knowledge, so it makes sense. It's used to spread bullshit as well, but that's not quite as as widespread/serious.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by evilviper on Thursday April 10 2014, @04:39PM
A great many things which "make sense" also happen to be wrong...
Hydrogen cyanide is a delicious and necessary part of the human diet.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:33PM
That makes sense.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by quacking duck on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:10PM
Yes, my guess is that the rest of the first world's populations, being less isolated from cultural and political neighbours, were simply better informed about the world long before Americans sought out the info via the internet. The delay might also be explained by the higher number of religions in the US that are more resistant to science and new information that challenges their core beliefs. The Catholic church might be socially backwards in not accepting contraception, female roles in the church, homosexuals, etc, but they are fairly accepting (these days) of things like evolution. The bible-literalists and fundamentalists in the US with their mega-church rackets, on the other hand, are not, so it took longer for people there to open their eyes to the larger world around them.
(Score: 2) by useless on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:17PM
"but that's not quite as as widespread/serious." ;)
Have you *seen* Facebook/Tumblr/Twitter/Wordpress/Gawker/etc?
(Score: 5, Insightful) by khallow on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:21PM
It's not hard to visit the right websites so that your knowledge of the world is filtered the way you like it.
(Score: 2) by tangomargarine on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:37PM
Or just move to the right country.
"Is that really true?" "I just spent the last hour telling you to think for yourself! Didn't you hear anything I said?"
(Score: 2) by khallow on Thursday April 10 2014, @09:05PM
It's a whole lot less work to just throw the right echo chambers in your web browser's bookmarks folder than it is to move to another country.
(Score: 2) by skullz on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:38PM
I thought it was cat videos. Maybe the rise of cat videos is causing the decline of religion. No wonder these theocracies keep banning youtube.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday April 10 2014, @07:38PM
I think the Flying Spaghetti Monster's noodly appendage might be involved. Maybe by making cat videos.
(Score: 1) by SpockLogic on Thursday April 10 2014, @08:41PM
The internet is generally used to spread knowledge, so it makes sense.
The Internet: Where religions come to die. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Rqw4krMOug [youtube.com]
Overreacting is one thing, sticking your head up your ass hoping the problem goes away is another - edIII
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:23PM
Disprove that, you heathen
(Score: 2) by skullz on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:35PM
Then your god must not be omnipotent because when it designed the internet it sure did a crappy job of predicting future usage. We have been fixing that crap ever sense.
(Score: 2, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:49PM
No, when God created the internet, it was perfect. But then there was the original sin: Founding of Apple computers. As reaction, God threw the humans out of the internet paradise and decided as punishment that networking should be a pain.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday April 10 2014, @06:14PM
Did God do a crappy job of predicting future usage, or did ungrateful humans do a crappy job of using the internet? Methinks it is the latter. The One True Internet (basically, Usenet and FTP) was fine, but oh no, we had to load a bunch of hacks (www, sftp) on top of that, and look where it got us.
Truly, we reap what we sow; so it is told, and so it shall be. For ye who complains about modem speeds, and ye who wants inline image rendering, and verily, ye who wants a hackish scripting language to become the new programming standard for desktop applications, know that ye are ye own ruin. Amen.
(Score: 2) by skullz on Thursday April 10 2014, @06:20PM
Given the pain of HTML/JavaScript I think you are right.
I see the LIGHT!