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posted by n1 on Thursday April 10 2014, @03:42PM   Printer-friendly
from the internet-is-the-devil dept.

In 1990, about 8 percent of the US population had no religious preference but by 2010, this percentage had more than doubled to 18 percent. That's a difference of about 25 million people, all of whom have somehow lost their religion. Now MIT Technology Review reports that Allen Downey, a computer scientist at the Olin College of Engineering in Massachusetts, has analyzed the data in detail and says that the dramatic drop in religious affiliation is the result of several factors but about 25 percent of the drop is due to the rise of the Internet. Downey concludes that the increase in Internet use in the last two decades has caused a significant drop in religious affiliation: for moderate use (2 or more hours per week) the odds ratio is 0.82. For heavier use (7 or more hours per week) the odds ratio is 0.58.

What Downey has found is a correlation and any statistician will tell you that correlations do not imply causation. But that does not mean that it is impossible to draw conclusions from correlations, only that they must be properly guarded. "Correlation does provide evidence in favor of causation, especially when we can eliminate alternative explanations or have reason to believe that they are less likely," says Downey. It's straightforward to imagine how spending time on the Internet can lead to religious disaffiliation. "For people living in homogeneous communities, the Internet provides opportunities to find information about people of other religions (and none), and to interact with them personally," says Downey. "Conversely, it is harder (but not impossible) to imagine plausible reasons why disaffiliation might cause increased Internet use."

There is another possibility: that a third unidentified factor causes both increased Internet use and religious disaffiliation. But Downey discounts this possibility. "We have controlled for most of the obvious candidates, including income, education, socioeconomic status, and rural/urban environments. (PDF)" If this third factor exists, it must have specific characteristics. It would have to be something new that was increasing in prevalence during the 1990s and 2000s, just like the Internet. "It is hard to imagine what that factor might be."

 
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  • (Score: 2) by Nerdfest on Thursday April 10 2014, @04:05PM

    by Nerdfest (80) on Thursday April 10 2014, @04:05PM (#29509)

    The internet is generally used to spread knowledge, so it makes sense. It's used to spread bullshit as well, but that's not quite as as widespread/serious.

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  • (Score: 3, Insightful) by evilviper on Thursday April 10 2014, @04:39PM

    by evilviper (1760) on Thursday April 10 2014, @04:39PM (#29541) Homepage Journal

    so it makes sense.

    A great many things which "make sense" also happen to be wrong...

    --
    Hydrogen cyanide is a delicious and necessary part of the human diet.
    • (Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:33PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:33PM (#29593)

      A great many things which "make sense" also happen to be wrong...

      That makes sense.

  • (Score: 2, Interesting) by quacking duck on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:10PM

    by quacking duck (1395) on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:10PM (#29575)

    Yes, my guess is that the rest of the first world's populations, being less isolated from cultural and political neighbours, were simply better informed about the world long before Americans sought out the info via the internet. The delay might also be explained by the higher number of religions in the US that are more resistant to science and new information that challenges their core beliefs. The Catholic church might be socially backwards in not accepting contraception, female roles in the church, homosexuals, etc, but they are fairly accepting (these days) of things like evolution. The bible-literalists and fundamentalists in the US with their mega-church rackets, on the other hand, are not, so it took longer for people there to open their eyes to the larger world around them.

  • (Score: 2) by useless on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:17PM

    by useless (426) on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:17PM (#29581)

    "but that's not quite as as widespread/serious."
    Have you *seen* Facebook/Tumblr/Twitter/Wordpress/Gawker/etc? ;)

  • (Score: 5, Insightful) by khallow on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:21PM

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:21PM (#29584) Journal

    It's not hard to visit the right websites so that your knowledge of the world is filtered the way you like it.

    • (Score: 2) by tangomargarine on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:37PM

      by tangomargarine (667) on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:37PM (#29601)

      Or just move to the right country.

      --
      "Is that really true?" "I just spent the last hour telling you to think for yourself! Didn't you hear anything I said?"
      • (Score: 2) by khallow on Thursday April 10 2014, @09:05PM

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday April 10 2014, @09:05PM (#29713) Journal

        Or just move to the right country.

        It's a whole lot less work to just throw the right echo chambers in your web browser's bookmarks folder than it is to move to another country.

  • (Score: 2) by skullz on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:38PM

    by skullz (2532) on Thursday April 10 2014, @05:38PM (#29602)

    I thought it was cat videos. Maybe the rise of cat videos is causing the decline of religion. No wonder these theocracies keep banning youtube.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday April 10 2014, @07:38PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Thursday April 10 2014, @07:38PM (#29667)

      I think the Flying Spaghetti Monster's noodly appendage might be involved. Maybe by making cat videos.

  • (Score: 1) by SpockLogic on Thursday April 10 2014, @08:41PM

    by SpockLogic (2762) on Thursday April 10 2014, @08:41PM (#29701)

    The internet is generally used to spread knowledge, so it makes sense.

    The Internet: Where religions come to die. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Rqw4krMOug [youtube.com]

    --
    Overreacting is one thing, sticking your head up your ass hoping the problem goes away is another - edIII