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posted by CoolHand on Monday July 11 2016, @06:14PM   Printer-friendly
from the keep-it-secret-keep-it-safe dept.

Yes, the phrase used in the headline is a direct quote. Tesla CEO Elon Musk is teasing new details about the company's future, set to be announced later this week. The news may be in reaction to slipping stock prices and troubles with regulators following a recent crash:

While offering no other details, the master plan is likely a follow-up to a 2006 blog post titled "The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan (just between you and me)," in which Musk laid out his vision for Tesla, including eventual plans for the Tesla Roadster, the Model S sedan and the upcoming (and more affordable) Model 3 sedan.

It may not be a bad idea for Musk to roll out some optimistic news. In recent weeks, the electric car company has become the subject of a federal safety investigation following at least two crashes — one fatal — possibly related to its highly touted autopilot feature; Tesla has announced a drop in Model S shipments; and Musk himself has come under fire after proposing that Tesla purchase SolarCity, which he is also the chairman of, much to the chagrin of shareholders.

[...] Tesla shares are down almost 10% year-to-date, and down more than 16% in the past 12 months.

You may also be interested in this NYT editorial about "Lessons From the Tesla Crash".


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  • (Score: 2) by bob_super on Monday July 11 2016, @09:02PM

    by bob_super (1357) on Monday July 11 2016, @09:02PM (#373299)

    > There will not be widespread self-driving cars in any of our lifetimes. It's a fantasy. Sure, we'll have something
    > like cruise-control on steroids, but if you think you're going to be able to call a driverless Uber to take you to your
    > 4 hour per day job, you might as well just wait for a personal jet pack.

    I'm going to have to disagree, because the tech is almost there, a least for roads in "first-world" countries. It's not a pipe dream with physics getting in the way.

    We're missing enough cheap sensors and processing power to deal with the worst corner cases, during which a single operator based halfway around the world could already get pinged to tell the safely-stopped machine what to do next.

    Are there dollars/euros/yuan/yen enough to make it widespread? Good question. I expect constant monitoring, insurance rates, mandatory maintenance and such to create a strong incentive (heck, you can't drive an old car inside Paris anymore). But the tech will work better than the humans before we have time to finish hunting all the lawyers.

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  • (Score: 2, Insightful) by tftp on Tuesday July 12 2016, @05:32AM

    by tftp (806) on Tuesday July 12 2016, @05:32AM (#373472) Homepage

    because the tech is almost there

    The last 10% of any project always consume 90% of the budget.

    An automatic car on a road where only automatic cars are allowed? Not a problem. Can be done tomorrow.

    An automatic car on a road where any vehicle may appear? No way. Hey, even pretty flexible humans have problem with that - and a computer does not even come closer to a sentient being who, actually, *understands* what is happening.

    That truck half a mile ahead? That would have been an obvious observation for a human, and an effortless, light braking - up to a full stop, if need be (a fire truck, an accident, construction, etc.) Even if the driver cannot *clearly* see the obstacle, he will be watching it, and decreasing the speed if necessary - humans are not that bad in detecting deviations from a pattern (such as an empty, straight or curved road.) If a computer does not see an obstacle, it presumes that there is none and barges ahead.

    A fully automated self-driving car that can tackle any situation has to be equipped with a decent AI. There is no workaround. You cannot depend on fixed algorithms if you sometimes have to stop and ask the officer who has the road blocked. I have done that.

  • (Score: 2) by ilPapa on Wednesday July 13 2016, @02:27AM

    by ilPapa (2366) on Wednesday July 13 2016, @02:27AM (#373928) Journal

    I'm going to have to disagree, because the tech is almost there, a least for roads in "first-world" countries. It's not a pipe dream with physics getting in the way.

    The project director for Google Cars disagrees with you. This week, he changed his prediction for go-anywhere driverless cars from "end of the decade" to "30 years away".

    And thirty years away in tech is the same as "never".

    You'll have a personal 3D-printed jet-pack before you have a driverless car that can take you where you want to go.

    --
    You are still welcome on my lawn.
    • (Score: 2) by bob_super on Wednesday July 13 2016, @04:21PM

      by bob_super (1357) on Wednesday July 13 2016, @04:21PM (#374095)

      > The project director for Google Cars disagrees with you.

      No, he doesn't.
      I said "[at] least for roads in "first-world" countries", and you reply with "go-anywhere".
      I've spent enough time in Asia to know the difference.

      Billions of people take the bus and/or the train every day. Those don't go everywhere, they just get you close enough. If you restrict the self-driving cars to roads on which certain standards are met, the tech is already there to carry over 99% of first-worlders daily.

      The major problem with automatic cars is that the manufacturer will have to defend every accident, and enforce every maintenance, because people expect to discharge all liability. And that's not a line item any accountant, and their CEOs, want to see on a balance sheet.
      Which probably implies that the Chinese will beat the West to it.

      • (Score: 2) by ilPapa on Thursday July 14 2016, @02:39PM

        by ilPapa (2366) on Thursday July 14 2016, @02:39PM (#374368) Journal

        and you reply with "go-anywhere".

        "Go-anywhere" was not my reply. It was the exact phrase used by the project director of Google Cars.

        And please tell me, if they're only going to stick to the same routes as trains and buses, what is the possible benefit of replacing one train with 500 cars?

        --
        You are still welcome on my lawn.
        • (Score: 2) by bob_super on Thursday July 14 2016, @04:30PM

          by bob_super (1357) on Thursday July 14 2016, @04:30PM (#374405)

          > "Go-anywhere" was not my reply. It was the exact phrase used by the project director of Google Cars.

          Which you quoted to object to my statement...

          > And please tell me, if they're only going to stick to the same routes as trains and buses, what is the possible benefit of replacing one train with 500 cars?

          Did I type the "same routes"? Don't be daft.