SoylentNews

Get Those Brain Cells Working: The Monty Hall Problem

posted by janrinok on Friday July 29 2016, @10:27AM   
from the something-to-think-about dept.

An Anonymous Coward writes:

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Do any of you have any noteworthy experiences where knowledge of math helped you in an unusual way?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

---

Original Submission

• Let's make it simpler! Let's make it simpler! (Score: 3, Insightful) by meustrus on Friday July 29 2016, @06:09PM

  by meustrus (4961) on Friday July 29 2016, @06:09PM (#381643)

  I always have trouble parsing the solutions to these logic puzzles because the steps are presented out of order to how I think. So here's an attempt to make it simpler.

  When the host shows you a door that doesn't win, he is telling you that either your door is right or the door he didn't pick is right. This is important, because which one he is telling you depends on whether you were right to begin with.

  1/3 of the time, you were right the first time, so the remaining door is a goat.

  2/3 of the time, you were wrong the first time, so the remaining door is a car.

  --
  If there isn't at least one reference or primary source, it's not +1 Informative. Maybe the underused +1 Interesting?

  Starting Score:	1		point
  Moderation		+1
  Insightful=1, Total=1
  Extra 'Insightful' Modifier		0
  Karma-Bonus Modifier		+1
  Total Score:		3

• Re:Let's make it simpler! (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 30 2016, @07:46AM

  by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 30 2016, @07:46AM (#381907)

  I'll give you a way to explain it that any middle school kid can understand:

  The Packers and the Seahawks are playing on Sunday. Vegas odds tell you, the way the teams are currently set up, the teams are even. Let's say you're thinking of a bet on the Seahawks.

  Suddenly, you hear that the star wide receiver of the Seahawks broke a leg. With this new information, you determine that the Packers are the smart pick.

  There you are: new information leads to new assessments. Moving on...

  Parent