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Get Those Brain Cells Working: The Monty Hall Problem

posted by janrinok on Friday July 29 2016, @10:27AM   
from the something-to-think-about dept.

An Anonymous Coward writes:

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Do any of you have any noteworthy experiences where knowledge of math helped you in an unusual way?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

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Original Submission

• I stick with my original choice I stick with my original choice (Score: 2) by Open4D on Friday July 29 2016, @09:34PM

  by Open4D (371) on Friday July 29 2016, @09:34PM (#381748) Journal

  Based on the problem as stated in the submission (above), I would stick with my original choice. I assume Monty is employed by the people who have to pay for the car, and I assume that he is only giving me the choice of switching because he knows I have successfully chosen the car. His opening of the other door is just a tactic to distract me from these thoughts.

   
  So I think it's quite important to include the following additional information when stating the problem (described in the Wikipedia article as "standard assumptions [wikipedia.org]"):

  The host must always open a door that was not picked by the contestant.
  The host must always open a door to reveal a goat and never the car.
  The host must always offer the chance to switch between the originally chosen door and the remaining closed door.

  Given those assumptions, I certainly agree with the 2/3 answer, and so would accept Monty's offer to switch.

   

  P.S. My favourite line from that wikipedia article is "Pigeons repeatedly exposed to the problem show that they rapidly learn always to switch, unlike humans"! (Though IMHO it should say "almost always". The source given for it is https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3086893/ [nih.gov] )

  Starting Score:	1		point
  Karma-Bonus Modifier		+1
  Total Score:		2

• Re:I stick with my original choice (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 31 2016, @07:18AM

  by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 31 2016, @07:18AM (#382199)

  The pigeons are making a decision to switch or stay.

  Why whould you say the decision is "almost always" to switch? What evidence do you have for the "almost"?

  Even if a few pigeons don't learn to switch "always", then the statement is still true that pigeons (in general) learn to switch, so long as the majority do learn, at least in my book.

  Splitting hairs in response to your hair splitting.

  Parent