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Pokémon Go is unquestionably this season's hit game. But whether it has any staying power is a very open question, and early signs suggest it's already trailing off.
Bloomberg has published some charts by Axiom Capital Management that show daily users and engagement dropping. One chart, using data from analytics firm Apptopia, shows Pokémon Go peaking at around 45 million users in mid-July, during the week or so following its launch. It then begins a decline to somewhere above 30 million daily users last week.
Bloomberg's article also notes a surge in searches for "augmented reality" coinciding with Pokémon Go's debut.
Niantic, for its part, is "still working hard on several new and exciting features to come in the future of Pokémon Go." Meanwhile, Nintendo is releasing two new 3DS Pokémon games on November 18.
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday August 25 2016, @02:42AM
Most games are like that. After a couple of months people have got what they want out of it. Why should this one be any different? To keep people interested they will need to infuse more interesting bits into the game on a continuing timeline.
Oh there will be a dedicated group that keeps going. But most people will leave. The only games that I know of that have lasted and still continue to go on and on are Counter Strike, Starcraft 2, and WoW. Oh sure something like diablo 2 still has a dedicated following. But the manufacture has abandoned it long ago...
http://store.steampowered.com/stats [steampowered.com]
Take for example something like the recent 'no mans sky'. It was well over 200k on the first few days. It is falling off quick down to 15k just today. Some of the games my wife plays the stats are in the 15-20 people per day.
(Score: 1) by helel on Thursday August 25 2016, @03:16AM
I think it would be more accurate to compare Pokémon Go to to other games strongly tied to large online player-base such as DotA 2, League of Legends, or World of Warcraft. In this arena successful games generally hit their peak years after release. Games that don't last that long are generally seen as flops, whether or not they're profitable.
Republican Patriotism [youtube.com]
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday August 25 2016, @04:22AM
Games that don't last that long are generally seen as flops
You just described 99.99999% of the games out there. Very very very very very few stick around a long time. Pokemon has a bit of nostalgia wrapped around a decent game mechanic (egress). But almost all games have a 2 week 'wooot' then a 2 months slide. To basically slide into oblivion and gamers move onto the next best thing. That is the way of games no mater how much you want it to be different.
It is a bit early to be comparing it to MMOs. Most of the games you listed have some sort of group play mechanic (usually core to the game). Pokemon does not really have that. It may be more fair to compare it to plants vs zombies 2 which had well over 20 million downloads. Yet the numbers have walked off a cliff on that. Same with angry birds.
Once you get over the 'collect a bunch of them' and figure out it zorches through your battery. You probably will uninstall it and move on.
For a game like this they will want to figure out who the whales are and harpoon them for all then can get out of them. Probably a good percentage of the people playing are not spending anything. You want them to get bored and leave anyway as they basically cost you money. The whales though you want to get them to buy things. Remember this is a game with a pay to play mechanic. So that will not last long for many either.
(Score: 2) by VLM on Thursday August 25 2016, @02:17PM
It is a bit early to be comparing it to MMOs.
Hey AC compare it to real world human social games for a good time. Even if I'm wrong its at least interesting to think about.
First thing that came to mind is "is everyone still playing werewolf?" or its 500 ripoff semi-copies and varieties?
I'm so old I remember playing assassination. Thats where the survivors draw names out of a hat and the object is to get them alone and squirt them with a squirt gun. Lots of sneakiness "hey come along with me so I can't get shot" little do they know I have their name on a slip of paper... You wouldn't think theres much glory or triumph in squirting a squirt gun at some idiot in a toilet stall but it is surprising fulfilling. The next day the survivors draw names out of a hat, until eventually its 1 x 1 squirt gun fight, you get the idea. Anyway no one plays assassination anymore.
In comparison something that never dies yet also nobody seems to participate in, is the eternal "host a murder in a box" party game variety of which there must be thousands. I'm not sure that genre will ever commercially die. For those unfamiliar with it, its basically LARP version of Risk, or maybe LARP of a Sherlock Holmes novel. I've done this and its fun and way too few people do this.
(Score: 3, Informative) by NCommander on Thursday August 25 2016, @08:09AM
I played Go a fair bit as I had fun hunting and exploring. However, Niantic made it that once you get up to about level 15+, everything starts breaking out of pokeballs very very easy, and you could never get enough balls unless you either bought them or camped on a spot. I can accept the fact that high level cP pokemon could (and should) escape, but a cheap pidgey?
I could buy balls, but at 20 balls per .99c (which wouldn't last even one pokemon), it simply wasn't worth it for me personally. I know quite a few people on reddit have complained about this after dropping several hundred dollars on the game(!)
Still always moving
(Score: 4, Interesting) by VLM on Thursday August 25 2016, @01:59PM
Niantic made it that once you get up to about level 15+
About two or so weeks ago, right? There was a patch released that made it miserable for everyone around then. I was at level 5 at the time fighting a ratatata and it escaped like ten time and I'm thinking Holy Cow I've found the worlds first 1000 CP ratatata and ... no it was just a plain old rat. And thats just how it is now, it costs like 3 to 7 balls on average instead of 1 on average.
Note that they're not monetizing very well, thus the incredible spike in stock price followed by the incredible collapse. I'm not buying pokeballs so I'm merely an expense to them to be minimized, so if I think the game now sucks that's great from a business perspective. They've advanced past the "first hit is free" stage and now its time to jack the prices and revenue up on the victims who are addicted...
(Score: 2) by NCommander on Thursday August 25 2016, @07:09PM
Yeah, right about then. That's when the game was last opened on my Galaxy S6 Active.
/r/pokemongo was full of rants. I'm still subscribed to that sub because its fun watching people think the world is ending.
Still always moving
(Score: 1) by driven on Thursday August 25 2016, @05:26AM
I suspect PMG is the "1.0" game of a new genre. Someone is bound to do it better - I'd say in the next year or so.
(Score: 2) by FatPhil on Thursday August 25 2016, @08:19AM
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: 1) by kurenai.tsubasa on Thursday August 25 2016, @04:03PM
I think this is the reason it's declining. It's just not a Pokémon game. There's no PvP. Capturing pokémon doesn't involving weakening them first. Does it even have the element system? An element system? Any strategy in gym fights? Anything?
I'm kind of surprised it was popular for as long as it was in spite of all that. If somebody would publish an AR version of Pokémon, it would be a blast to play.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday August 25 2016, @07:35PM
(Score: 2) by bob_super on Thursday August 25 2016, @06:58PM
It's the normal curve, indeed.
It has also attracted a lot of people who were not going to play any game more than a few days, but wanted to know what the buzz is about.
(some people may have noticed how expensive their July data plan was)
It's also the end of summer vacation, so people's ability to roam around for hours is getting dramatically cut.
(Score: 2) by everdred on Thursday August 25 2016, @09:36PM
This is exactly what I suspect it is, based on how popular it was among the "normal" people I know. What makes Pokémon Go exceptional was that it managed to hold the attention of these folks for weeks, not days.