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A mathematical model that looked at the sudden collapse of empires or states was created, with an intent to look at why social disorder can appear from an apparently stable state (an example cited is the Arab Spring in 2011). Factions within a state make choices described by game-theory about whether to accept the political status quo, or to attempt to better their circumstances through costly rebellion.
We find that a small amount of dissatisfaction is typically harmless to the state, but can trigger sudden collapse when there is a sufficient buildup of political inequality. Contrary to intuition, a state is predicted to be least stable when its leadership is at the height of its political power and thus most able to exert its influence through external warfare, lavish expense or autocratic decree.
(Score: 2) by Grishnakh on Wednesday May 14 2014, @05:09PM
This isn't about revolutions being "successful", it's about social order. Syria is not in an orderly and stable state right now. The final outcome really doesn't matter; there's been a lot of change there, called "violence", and it's affected all the citizens there. If you, a normal citizen, is on the side of the government, it's pretty cold comfort that eventually your side will win (because the military is on your side too) when the fighting has killed your family and bombed out your hometown and left you with missing limbs.