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Apparent Strength Conceals Instability of Nations

posted by LaminatorX on Wednesday May 14 2014, @04:46PM   
from the House-of-Cards dept.

lhsi writes:

A mathematical model that looked at the sudden collapse of empires or states was created, with an intent to look at why social disorder can appear from an apparently stable state (an example cited is the Arab Spring in 2011). Factions within a state make choices described by game-theory about whether to accept the political status quo, or to attempt to better their circumstances through costly rebellion.

We find that a small amount of dissatisfaction is typically harmless to the state, but can trigger sudden collapse when there is a sufficient buildup of political inequality. Contrary to intuition, a state is predicted to be least stable when its leadership is at the height of its political power and thus most able to exert its influence through external warfare, lavish expense or autocratic decree.

• Re:In other words (Score: 3, Funny) by bob_super on Wednesday May 14 2014, @06:33PM

  by bob_super (1357) on Wednesday May 14 2014, @06:33PM (#43337)

  History has also told us that the guy making mathematical models for the fall of the empire doesn't get invited to the orgies.
  His skill set does not make him one of the survivors either.

  Pick your own conclusion.

  Parent

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