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A mathematical model that looked at the sudden collapse of empires or states was created, with an intent to look at why social disorder can appear from an apparently stable state (an example cited is the Arab Spring in 2011). Factions within a state make choices described by game-theory about whether to accept the political status quo, or to attempt to better their circumstances through costly rebellion.
We find that a small amount of dissatisfaction is typically harmless to the state, but can trigger sudden collapse when there is a sufficient buildup of political inequality. Contrary to intuition, a state is predicted to be least stable when its leadership is at the height of its political power and thus most able to exert its influence through external warfare, lavish expense or autocratic decree.
(Score: 2) by tibman on Wednesday May 14 2014, @06:51PM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Revolution [wikipedia.org]
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(Score: 2) by HiThere on Wednesday May 14 2014, @07:18PM
Washington was a Colonel before the revolution. Most of the other leaders of the revolutionary military were also military leaders before the revolution. Britain has horribly long supply lines. And the Continental Congress still would have lost if it weren't for support from the French, both in North America and in Europe. Even as it was it was a very close thing.
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(Score: 2) by tibman on Wednesday May 14 2014, @07:38PM
Ah, and i suppose other countries don't have any retired military (rhetorical)? Are revolutions so dependent on Veterans to change the government? Makes you wonder about Nations post-conflict. They probably have a lot more Veterans walking around just trying to find a job.
I totally agree with external support being required.
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