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Abraham de Moivre, a French mathematician and the godfather of probability theory, was also the first-known person to correctly predict the day he would die. At the age of 87, he noticed that he was sleeping 15 minutes longer each night. He theorized that when those extra 15 minutes per day added up to a full 24 hours, he would die. The date he predicted: Nov. 27, 1754. Sure enough, he passed away from "somnolence" that day.
Though there is some doubt about the veracity of this story, many researchers have since tried to use statistics to tell us how long we will live. More than 250 years later, however, the science of predicting mortality has remained stagnant, left to insurance actuaries using antiquated statistical techniques based on limited data.
But the advent of Big Data analytics has reraised the questions that de Moivre considered: Can we use mathematics to predict the timing of death? Do people want to know when they will die? Recent insights using computer analytics say yes to both.
Predicting one's mortality is an important question for many stakeholders. As a physician who studies end-of-life care, I have come across cases for which an accurate estimate of one's longevity would dramatically improve patients' lives.
[...] A 2013 study published in the American Journal of Epidemiology found that machine learning outperformed any single algorithm or risk score by up to 44 percent when predicting mortality in an elderly population.
[...] In his book Being Mortal, author and physician Atul Gawande writes, "how we seek to spend our time may depend on how much time we perceive ourselves to have." The machine can help with this, freeing us from trying to live longer so that we can just live.
What do you think ? Would you want to know when you are going to die ?
(Score: 3, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 13 2017, @07:05PM (3 children)
"You've been terminated!"
(Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 13 2017, @07:45PM (2 children)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 13 2017, @07:59PM (1 child)
Guns don't kill people, robots with guns kill people.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 14 2017, @06:42AM
They don't need guns if you're a journeyman technician performing routine maintenance on one of the robots.
https://soylentnews.org/article.pl?sid=17/03/13/1423221 [soylentnews.org]
(Score: 4, Insightful) by ikanreed on Monday March 13 2017, @07:11PM (3 children)
The answer is a hard no.
With the stupid-ass caveat that good well-built AI software with good data sources is probably better at an actuary than human actuaries are.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by edIII on Monday March 13 2017, @08:35PM (2 children)
The answer is a hard no for other reasons to me. Those being that all information is used against us.
Going to die in 3 months? Well then your credit score drops to -20. Banks call in loans early. Your boss starts to discuss you training somebody else. Basically, the people who develop and control that information will use it to abuse us. That's because all information is used to abuse us.
Corporations, or "stake holders", will decide about your life no differently than they decide how cattle will die and when, and for the exact same reasons. Maximization of profits upwards to the Owning Classes.
From a Game Theory perspective, information like the exact time of your death should never be disclosed to anyone, or anything. Anytime they even begin to say that they know this, we need to fight them tooth and nail with science, law, or just plain bullets in their fucking heads.
Technically, lunchtime is at any moment. It's just a wave function.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Immerman on Monday March 13 2017, @11:17PM
Since when has whether or not something should be done had any relevance to whether it can be done?
Heck, it's a rare and lucky day if it has any impact on whether it does get done.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 14 2017, @02:36AM
You forget, they're going to know anyway. They have the data. The question is, do YOU want to know.
If you assume everyone else already knows (meaning govt., banks, insurance co, etc.) Do you want to be in on the secret too?
I sure do. Do I have enough time to travel? To write that book? Or do I need to just stay home and enjoy the sunshine tomorrow?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 13 2017, @07:15PM (1 child)
"Croak-A-Tron 9000"
(Score: 2) by fritsd on Tuesday March 14 2017, @01:04PM
I believe it's already called a "Kevorkian machine [wikipedia.org]".
Warning: disturbing article.
(Score: 4, Informative) by maxwell demon on Monday March 13 2017, @07:25PM (1 child)
And I can predict very well the average outcome of the next 100 die rolls. Yet I'm completely unable to predict the next roll.
It is something completely different to predict statistical averages (mortality in an elderly population, average roll of a die, average temperature in 20 years) than to predict individual events (death of a specific person, result of next die roll, weather next Sunday).
The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
(Score: 4, Funny) by Zinho on Monday March 13 2017, @08:34PM
It is something completely different to predict statistical averages . . . than to predict individual events
What's the difference between an American actuary and a Sicilian actuary?
The American actuary can tell you how many people will die in the coming year.
The Sicilian actuary can tell you their names. ;^)
"Space Exploration is not endless circles in low earth orbit." -Buzz Aldrin
(Score: 2) by Snotnose on Monday March 13 2017, @07:39PM (1 child)
It could predict a person's death to the minute.
Relationship status: Available for curbside pickup.
(Score: 2) by mhajicek on Monday March 13 2017, @11:52PM
With a couple minutes lag, depending on how you define death.
The spacelike surfaces of time foliations can have a cusp at the surface of discontinuity. - P. Hajicek
(Score: 2) by KilroySmith on Monday March 13 2017, @07:41PM
As a person who spent 20 years of my life riding a motorcycle every day, and 10 years of it hang gliding every weekend, and am now overweight and sedentary, I'd say "go ahead, give it a try".
If they look at my Dad's side of the family, I should be dead already. My mother's side? I've got another 40 years.
(Score: 2) by NotSanguine on Monday March 13 2017, @07:52PM
The Chronovitameter is infallible! Just ask Hugo Pinero [baen.com]. Oh wait, the machine predicted his death and he gone. Break out the Ouija boards!
No, no, you're not thinking; you're just being logical. --Niels Bohr
(Score: 3, Informative) by bob_super on Monday March 13 2017, @08:14PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ccOG42NuwIw [youtube.com]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/This_Is_How_You_Die [wikipedia.org]
(Score: 2) by krishnoid on Monday March 13 2017, @08:23PM (1 child)
Perhaps some sort of death clock [gotfuturama.com] (note: audio). Semi-related, http://machineofdeath.net/ [soylentnews.org] is a collection of stories about a machine that can tell how people will die. It's a creative commons book too.
(Score: 1, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 13 2017, @09:00PM
Perhaps some sort of death clock
Dethklok!!! [wikipedia.org]
(Score: 2) by Zinho on Monday March 13 2017, @08:24PM (2 children)
If we're speculating about the effect this would have, we should discuss the existing body of speculative fiction covering the topic:
Machine of Death [machineofdeath.net]
Machine of Death [wikipedia.org] is a 2010 collection of science fiction short stories edited by Ryan North, Matthew Bennardo, and David Malki.[1] The stories featured in Machine of Death were submitted by various writers since early 2007 and all focus on a device which can accurately predict the manner in which the user will eventually die. The book became a #1 bestseller on Amazon.com shortly after its initial publication, and was later released online under a free license.
It's a fun read, lots of thoughts on how we'd react as humans to an infallible predictor of this sort.
What other required reading can fellow Lentils suggest?
"Space Exploration is not endless circles in low earth orbit." -Buzz Aldrin
(Score: 2) by looorg on Monday March 13 2017, @08:54PM
Leela: Does it really work?
Farnsworth: Well it's occasionally off by a few seconds. What with free will and all.
Fry: Sounds like fun. How long do I have left to live?
[He puts his finger in the hole and the clock dings.]
Bender: Ooh! Dibs on his CD player!
http://futurama.wikia.com/wiki/Death_Clock [wikia.com]
(Score: 3, Interesting) by NotSanguine on Monday March 13 2017, @09:20PM
Interesting, thanks. I hadn't seem this before.
I'm surprised that the story [soylentnews.org] I linked to wasn't included in the collection, given that it's now in the public domain.
No, no, you're not thinking; you're just being logical. --Niels Bohr
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 13 2017, @10:21PM
I should live forever, since my sleep is less and less the older I get.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 13 2017, @10:54PM
A section describing how they dealt with this needs to be included in every ML paper:
https://www.kaggle.com/wiki/Leakage [kaggle.com]
I honestly put no stock in the results at all without this because I know how easy it is to start overfitting like crazy.
(Score: 2) by GreatAuntAnesthesia on Monday March 13 2017, @11:37PM
I read a fantastic collection of short stories on this very subject - http://machineofdeath.net/about [machineofdeath.net]
(Score: 2) by goodie on Tuesday March 14 2017, @12:27AM
Good AI is only as good as the data it has. It's always been the same issue, there are so many features that you would need to identify _and_ track for this to have any sort of relevance. Any good doctor can predict with a reasonable timeframe when a person will die when they have a certain disease. But when the same person is healthy or when you do not have enough data, you won't be able to do squat IMHO.