2012 TC4 will pass Earth well within the Moon's orbit a month from now, but not nearly as close as previously estimated:
Mark your calendar for Oct. 12. That's when asteroid 2012 TC4 will slip past Earth at an expected distance of around 27,300 miles (44,000 kilometers). The European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope in Chile recently caught sight of the asteroid, which could be up to 100 feet (30 meters) in size.
NASA is leading a coordinated international campaign to observe TC4. In July, NASA suggested the asteroid could squeeze in as close as 4,200 miles (6,800 kilometers), but the European Space Agency's latest estimates give us more breathing room.
Geostationary equatorial orbit (GEO) is at about 35,786 km above mean sea level.
Also at Phys.org (AFP).
(Score: 2) by kaszz on Sunday August 13 2017, @04:07AM (4 children)
Did you account for the distance to Earth? the closer a object gets. The more data for an accurate trajectory and less chance of disruptions.
(Score: 2) by HiThere on Sunday August 13 2017, @06:49PM (3 children)
No. Those making the projections are supposed to account for that. And the stories never give error bars, so I can't even say for certain if their earlier projection was wrong. Still, it sure *looks* as if it was wrong. They were off by over 20,000 miles, which would mean that if that was within their error bars, so was a direct central impact.
That said, yes, this kind of prediction is difficult and uncertain. But the prediction (as reported) wasn't "better keep an eye on this one", but rather "this one is going to miss us safely by this much". Which leads to a lack of trust in all the other predictions (as reported).
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 2) by kaszz on Monday August 14 2017, @03:48AM (2 children)
Actual policy if there IS an impact is to not tell the public to avoid public riots. Figure that.
I'll keep your point in mind though. There obviously seems to be a loophole.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 14 2017, @06:47AM
[citation needed]
Like the leaky White House can keep it a secret anyway.
(Score: 2) by Justin Case on Monday August 14 2017, @04:51PM
Agree with AC. Citation?