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Submitted via IRC for Bytram
A University of Arkansas mathematician argues that species, such as ours, go extinct soon after attaining high levels of technology.
"I taught astronomy for 37 years," said Whitmire. "I used to tell my students that by statistics, we have to be the dumbest guys in the galaxy. After all we have only been technological for about 100 years while other civilizations could be more technologically advanced than us by millions or billions of years."
Recently, however, he's changed his mind. By applying a statistical concept called the principle of mediocrity – the idea that in the absence of any evidence to the contrary we should consider ourselves typical, rather than atypical – Whitmire has concluded that instead of lagging behind, our species may be average. That's not good news.
[...] The argument is based on two observations: We are the first technological species to evolve on Earth, and we are early in our technological development.
[...] By Whitmire's definition we became "technological" after the industrial revolution and the invention of radio, or roughly 100 years ago. According to the principle of mediocrity, a bell curve of the ages of all extant technological civilizations in the universe would put us in the middle 95 percent. In other words, technological civilizations that last millions of years, or longer, would be highly atypical. Since we are first, other typical technological civilizations should also be first. The principle of mediocrity allows no second acts. The implication is that once species become technological, they flame out and take the biosphere with them.
Source: The Implications of Cosmic Silence
For background, see: Fermi's Paradox and the Drake equation.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Arik on Monday August 14 2017, @11:17AM
Sure, but to be fair, the Aztecs were no slouches at murder. Their obsidian knives were easily as sharp as anything the Spanish had, the only drawback being that they were so easily damages, and these guys not only conducted human sacrifices, they did it in bulk. I honestly think you're underestimating the Aztecs if you think the Spanish were any better at murder. The Spanish beat them by a combination of incredibly good timing/luck, astute politics in playing the Mayans and others to their favor, and last but not least the effect of the pox should not be discounted.
The US defeat at little big horn can be laid quite solidly on the head of the commander involved, a man about whom nothing good may be said in earnest.
"A similar example is the fall of Rome to barbarians. Nomadic people defeating and sacking the capital of the largest empire the world had known is something to make you pause and reflect: are all the marbles on the hands of the civilized?"
Rome fell due to internal decay, not external pressure. But yes, 'civilization' has never been half as cool as it imagines itself to be. When it becomes decadent and fails to perform its core duties it receives an Alaric.
If laughter is the best medicine, who are the best doctors?