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posted by martyb on Monday November 13 2017, @11:00AM   Printer-friendly
from the I-prefer-the-Age-of-Aquarius dept.

Bob Lutz, former General Motors Vice Chair, opines:

It saddens me to say it, but we are approaching the end of the automotive era.

The auto industry is on an accelerating change curve. For hundreds of years, the horse was the prime mover of humans and for the past 120 years it has been the automobile.

Now we are approaching the end of the line for the automobile because travel will be in standardized modules.

The end state will be the fully autonomous module with no capability for the driver to exercise command. You will call for it, it will arrive at your location, you'll get in, input your destination and go to the freeway.
...
The vehicles, however, will no longer be driven by humans because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways.

The tipping point will come when 20 to 30 percent of vehicles are fully autonomous. Countries will look at the accident statistics and figure out that human drivers are causing 99.9 percent of the accidents.

Is he right? Is the age of the automobile coming to an end?


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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 13 2017, @02:21PM (2 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 13 2017, @02:21PM (#596191)

    The Autoextremist commented on the Lutz article,
        http://www.autoextremist.com/current/2017/11/7/the-lingering-interregnum.html [autoextremist.com]
    I thought his title was suitably SF-like-- "THE LINGERING INTERREGNUM"

    Now that Bob Lutz has dropped his dire predictions for the future of the automotive world in Automotive News - a Lutzian Nightmare that projects the total annihilation of the automotive world as we know it, while painting a grim landscape dominated by faceless autonomous transportation modules that come in small, medium and large, a dystopian scenario that will send traditional car companies and luxury brands to the scrap heap of history - maybe it’s time to step back and take a deep breath.

    “Maximum Bob” is entitled to express his opinion when it comes to all things automotive - he’s certainly earned that right - but if that’s our final destination at the dawn of this autonomous era, then to paraphrase Samuel Goldwyn’s famous quote, “Ladies and gentlemen, you may include me out.”

    I’m frankly tired of the subject at this point in time, because despite the prognostications, we’re talking far into the future. And though some of our readers have expressed irrational exuberance for all things autonomous, salivating at the thought of a Jetson-esque future of effortless transportation unburdened by driver involvement, I decline to get excited about it, because for most of the country, it’s simply not going to happen in our lifetime.

    Think about this: If we maximized the mass transportation systems already in place in this country, and added to them judiciously, the whole autonomy thing would be a sideshow, but because there are massive dollars on the table, and corporate entities both real and imagined are clamoring for their piece of the action, autonomous vehicles are going to be sold as the panacea that society is waiting for and shoved down our collective throats.

    He then goes back to some items of current concern, such as the return of subprime financing and 72 month car loans. This is usually a sign that new car/truck sales have peaked and the managers are just trying to keep the sales numbers high for a little longer. The market for new vehicles is probably near the bust part of the typical boom-bust cycle.

    He signs off with,

    Because this just in: the Jetsons, at least until further notice, was just a cartoon.

  • (Score: 2) by takyon on Monday November 13 2017, @03:26PM (1 child)

    by takyon (881) <reversethis-{gro ... s} {ta} {noykat}> on Monday November 13 2017, @03:26PM (#596215) Journal

    There are a lot of deaths due to car accidents and the technology is ready to the point where it can be driven in traffic. I doubt we will have to wait a lifetime to see some adoption. They won't be popular in rural areas though.

    --
    [SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 13 2017, @04:07PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 13 2017, @04:07PM (#596241)

      I'd argue the opposite, given the size of the system, there are very few highway deaths. Think about how much time people spend in hospitals (many less hours than most spend in cars)...and compare to deaths from getting a hospital-infection that you didn't have when you went in for some other problem.

      Further, note that you can greatly improve your odds on the highway if you desire--just don't drive when impaired or distracted.