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Bob Lutz, former General Motors Vice Chair, opines:
It saddens me to say it, but we are approaching the end of the automotive era.
The auto industry is on an accelerating change curve. For hundreds of years, the horse was the prime mover of humans and for the past 120 years it has been the automobile.
Now we are approaching the end of the line for the automobile because travel will be in standardized modules.
The end state will be the fully autonomous module with no capability for the driver to exercise command. You will call for it, it will arrive at your location, you'll get in, input your destination and go to the freeway.
...
The vehicles, however, will no longer be driven by humans because in 15 to 20 years — at the latest — human-driven vehicles will be legislated off the highways.The tipping point will come when 20 to 30 percent of vehicles are fully autonomous. Countries will look at the accident statistics and figure out that human drivers are causing 99.9 percent of the accidents.
Is he right? Is the age of the automobile coming to an end?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 13 2017, @06:56PM (2 children)
I live in a state that horse drawn buggies and wagons are still on the toads. (55 mile hr narrow two lane roads at that). Along with tractors and truck pulling tobacco leaves.
Will there be a day when drivers are gone no. One reason is the vecials are being built large enough. I am 6'7" (2m) the only cars I can be in are 2015 or less suburban or tohoes period. Every other behicsl I can not get into.
(Score: 2) by HiThere on Monday November 13 2017, @07:29PM (1 child)
The comment about vehicles not being built large enough resonates we me, and I'm only a bit over 6 foot. Some are large enough for me, but it's amazing the number that aren't. Even when they're large enough internally it's often a topological maneuver to get through the door to the seat.
That said, I think that outliers won't determine the course of events.
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 13 2017, @11:35PM
Daughter bought car that I sat in once... Then had to fall out the door and crawl to lamp post to get up off the ground.
Ehn my sububan was wrecked, had to rent a car for a few days... Started in the price range that insurance would pay... 12 cars later, YUKON. Could not get through the door, center console makes no where for legs, wheel and or steering column could not knee under, ...
What children design these cars???
(Score: 2) by Aiwendil on Monday November 13 2017, @07:29PM
It depends - for people just doing the common A to B on well-maintained major roads and in cities it will probably come soon.
However for those living out in the countryside or where roads are temporary manual control will last a bit longer...
And even longer where roads are truly seasonal (being flooded, being thick ice and so on)..
And then we have those that actually works with doing the survey for installing infrastructure and for those manual cars are a requirement.
And then we have emergency workers - being able to override can save lives.
And finally we have the oddballs like military and those that need to interact with other mobile heavy machinery for whom anything without manual modes are paramount to suicide machines.
If any of you never has been near where they build new infrastructure - let's just say that online maps lag to the point where they are useless at times (tends to take a few months for them to be updated with that a hill suddenly is missing and such, or that a bridge has been built, or that it is railway track there, or that you are in a tunnel that isn't accessible to the public).
And for that matter - how to automatic cars deal with simple boom barrier? especially when the traveller needs to get out, open it it, and then close it behind the car?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday November 13 2017, @08:29PM
That'll happen right after they take the 2nd amendment way. Nothing would give the government more control over the populace than being able to, at any time, isolate their ability to move freely. With bikes, dirt bikes, all kinds of off-road vehicles, motorcycles, etc, you're not going to be able to stop people from driving here in the states. It won't surprise me if it happens Europe though, that place is nailing it's own coffin when it comes to securing their rights as human beings.
(Score: 1) by curril on Monday November 13 2017, @10:17PM (1 child)
Odd that I haven't seen comments on how this affects people who turn cars into their own personal spaces. People often turn their cars into an extension of their identity, with bumper stickers and decals on the outside and various accessories on the inside. This is especially true of people who do business out of their vehicle. I can't imagine a plumber loading up a generic pod with tools and equipment, emptying it all out at the customer's house, then when leaving picking up everything and putting it in a new pod.
There's no problem solved by autonomous modules that isn't solved by taxis and buses and they represent a small amount of traffic. I think that there will be demand for self-driving cars that can valet-park themselves and drive themselves to the shop for maintenance as well as drive on the freeway, but I expect people will still want to own their own cars. Autonomous modules might take the place of taxis and some buses but people who can afford to own their own house will probably also want their own car.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @03:45AM
You're wrong.
Autonomous vehicles make timesharing vehicles much more plausible, and cheaper than a taxi. This creates situations that enable people to have much less of a stake in owning a vehicle.
(Score: 2) by Bobs on Tuesday November 14 2017, @12:13AM (1 child)
Removing self-piloted cars will start with private auto-insurance companies: Libertarians rejoice!
To drive on public roads you need to buy auto insurance.
The insurance companies will start to offer big discounts on AI-driven cars, and charge much more for self-driven cars.
Because AI crashes less / costs less for them to payout.
So people will increasingly find it unaffordable to have their own self-driving car.
And the super-rich will be able to buy and maintain fleets of self-driving cars, others will stay off the public roads unless on auto-pilot.
And public highways will start to be optimized for AI-driven vehicles.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday November 14 2017, @03:49AM
You need to be clear about "self-driving"
Self-driving usually refers to the f'ing car being self-driving. Not the person driving themselves.
Terminology lesson complete.