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Today's 6th graders will hit their prime working years in 2030.
By that time, the "robot apocalypse" could be fully upon us. Automation and artificial intelligence could have eliminated half the jobs in the United States economy.
Or, plenty of jobs could still exist, but today's students could be locked in a fierce competition for a few richly rewarded positions requiring advanced technical and interpersonal skills. Robots and algorithms would take care of what used to be solid working- and middle-class jobs. And the kids who didn't get that cutting-edge computer science course or life-changing middle school project? They'd be relegated to a series of dead-end positions, serving the elites who did.
Alternatively, maybe Bill Gates and Elon Musk and the other big names ringing the alarm are wrong. A decade from now, perhaps companies will still complain they can't find employees who can read an instruction manual and pass a drug test. Maybe workers will still be able to hold on to the American Dream, so long as they can adjust to incremental technological shifts in the workplace.
Which vision will prove correct?
30 years into the Information Revolution and schools are only just now realizing they should teach kids how to code...
(Score: 3, Interesting) by fliptop on Friday December 15 2017, @02:54AM (4 children)
I'll add to that list. I doubt a robot will be able to change a tire or diagnose and repair a chassis noise. Being a mechanic doesn't (always) require any special schooling or certification. The ones I know make between $13 and $16 an hour and typically work 50 hours a week. Those jobs aren't going anywhere soon, unless people stop driving cars.
To be oneself, and unafraid whether right or wrong, is more admirable than the easy cowardice of surrender to conformity
(Score: 3, Informative) by Unixnut on Friday December 15 2017, @10:45AM
But cars are becoming locked down "black boxes" not unlike mobile phones are.
30 years ago cars were mostly mechanical, and much simpler, so it was not hard to do mechanical work on them if you were not the OEM. Even ignoring people who spent their weekends tinkering with the car, people not into that would easily find a local independent garage to do work on them.
However as cars get more electrics, more computerised and digitised, you are finding the barriers to investment getting bigger. In the 90s it was still ok (but you had to know the secret button combos to enable diagnostic mode, which, if you didn't have the internet, was hard to find out), in the 00's you started needing to buy $5000 "diagnostic computers" (which were basically XP tablets with the company software reinstalled), and now, in 2017, you need always on connected to the manufaturer machines if you want to do diagnostics.
To put it into perspective, if you want to diagnose a fault with a certain German make, you have to buy their "Diagnostic computer" for around $2000, however after that, you have to pay yearly licences for things like "Transmission diagnostic", "Airbag diagnostics", "Engine diagnostics", etc... If you wanted to be able to diagnose any fault on the car, you would have to spend around $20,000 a year.
That is ok for a big garage who can absorb the cost over a large number of cars per year (especially if they specialise in that manufacturer), but a small independent garage is unlikely to afford it, let alone an individual paying for it just to work on their car. And it gets worse, with licensing, the OEM can place all kinds of demands and restrictions, with all the extra costs involved. So individuals and independents get locked out.
There is a trend slowly to make cars DRMed black boxes, and it will only get worse as cars start getting "AI" or self driving capability. OEMs want this because they found they can make a lot more money that way. Not unlike inkjet printer manufacturers, the big money is in the DRM cartridges. That is why servicing costs for new cars get more and more expensive (but car owners rant at "rip off garages" rather than realising it is the manufacturers increasing servicing costs)
I fully expect cars one day to be glued together pods, which are rented by the trip or leased for a set period, then returned for recycling or repair any massive automated service station. People interested in just getting from A to B would not have a need for car ownership (you see it more and more in cities, as "millenials" don't bother getting cars or driving licences). There will not be much demand for human mechanics, and they won't be able to do much on the cars anyway. There will most likely be a sizable "Classic car" minority, but they will most likely work on their own cars, or have a few specialist garages to cater to their needs.
So I don't see much of a future for intrepid car mechanics (unless they are good enough to be hired into one of the future big repair stations, doing whatever the robots can't, or make it as classic car mechanics/restorers). Quite frankly I think there will be more of a future for plumbers. No matter what happens in the future, humans will still need piped water and sewage systems, and those require going to the premises, interacting with humans, and dealing with a range of systems from victorian era plumbling to the latest eco-solar-combined-heat-magic-whizz-bang systems.
(Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Friday December 15 2017, @11:22AM (2 children)
They won't go away entirely, but they will largely go away because electric cars require much less maintenance than internal combustion engines.
Washington DC delenda est.
(Score: 2) by fliptop on Friday December 15 2017, @01:47PM (1 child)
Perhaps, but chassis parts will remain mostly as they are today. These are the parts that need much more attention in terms of maintenance. The parts I'm speaking about here include: tires, brakes, wheel bearings, tie rods, ball joints, control arms, bushings, axles, wheel studs, lug nuts, and any ABS parts like sensors and tone rings. Wheel alignments too.
To be oneself, and unafraid whether right or wrong, is more admirable than the easy cowardice of surrender to conformity
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday December 15 2017, @09:27PM
And in any cold climate, salt corrosion and rust will degrade electrical connections and wire casings. Have fun getting your whole car torn apart looking for the bad ground, then replacing all the chips that got fried. Not to mention, electrical failures will be catastrophic as less and less mechanical control is available to the driver.